Peri-urban Land use changes in the Lagos Megacity

M Phil Candidate : Samuel Dekolo (109054012)

Supervisors: Prof. Leke OduwayeDr. I. I. C. Nwokoro

1) Introduction and Background to the Study

2) Literature Review

3) Theoretical Framework

4) Conceptual Framework

5) Methodology

6) Conclusion

INTRODUCTIONBackground to the Study

Background to the Study

• The global trend of urbanisation has led to the formation of large urban agglomerations with a population of 10 million or more known as megacities.

• Megacities are characterized by sprawling developments, which brings rapid change to land cover and land uses in peri-urban areas.

• Sprawling growth tends to correlates with poor housing, poverty, insecure land tenure, informality and slum development, unsustainable land use and environmental degradation in most African cities.

Background…

• Land use and land cover changes due to urban expansion have serious ecological repercussions and pose a great deal of challenge to environmental sustainability at local and global scales. It is a major driving force of global environmental change, which affects the earth systems.

• Prevailing global changes linked to deforestation, desertification, biodiversity loss, food insecurity, climate change, carbon emission etc, are consequences of unsustainable use of land or unsustainable practices.

Global Significance

• Global Land Surveys estimates the total world’s forests in 2005 at 3.8 billion hectares i.e. 30% of the global land area. However, recorded a decrease of 1.7% between 1990 and 2005 at 0.11% P.A (FAO, 2012).

• Africa had the 2nd highest forest loss with 1.6 million ha annually and Nigeria had the largest rate of forest loss in 2005 (FAO, 2005).

• The Millennium Ecosystems Assessment shows the magnitude of the loss of land cover due to land use change has resulted in the loss of ecosystems services from the global to local scales.

Millenium Ecosystems Assessment (MEA)

The Millenium Assessment Report proved that global challenges are offshoots of regional and local land use change dynamics and human choice » (Powleegde, 2006).

Global to Local Initiatives

GLOBAL RESEARCH PROJECTS• Sustainable Land Use

(SuLu)Project• Global Land Project (GLP)• The GLP research has

three thematic area: • Dynamics of Land

Systems; Consequences of Land Systems Change; Integrating Analysis and Modelling for Sustainability

• International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP)

• International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change (IHDP)

• Project GIGALOPOLIS• Etc.

REGIONAL RESEARCH PROJECTS• Europe• Monitoring Land Use/Cover

Dynamics (MOLAND) • Peri-urban Land Use Relationships

(PLUREL)• Africa• Land Use Impacts and Dynamics

(LUCID)-East Africa

• AFRICOVER

NIGERIAN LAND USE /COVER PROJECTS

• Nigeria Radar (NIRAD) 1976/77 • Land Use/Land Cover FORMECU

Project 1978-1995• ABUJA GIS PROJECT-• LRIS/lLISSU (1995) LAGIS

PROJECT 2009

Statement of Problem

• Several studies have been done globally and regionally, however, these cannot give an understanding of land use change processes at the local scale.

• Existing literature shows that Land Use Change studies on the study area have focused on the spatial quantification of change without understanding their determinants.

• Studies on peri-urbanization of the Lagos Megacity tend to focus on the associated problems without investigating the spatio-temporal change, and the underlying factors for such change.

Statement of Problem

• Existing theories on peri-urban land use change are western biased and may not be able to explain the local processes in the Lagos megacity.

• Previous studies on the study area have not addressed the location characteristics and role of human agents (parcel owners) in transformation of the peri-urban landscape.

• There are also existing gaps in land use policy analysis in the study area; there have not been studies to examine the land management instruments and institutions.

Statement of Problem

• In view of the gaps, there is a need for a holistic study that will contributes to the understanding of the Lagos Megacity’s peri-urban land use change and the determinants based on appropriate spatial units, which will provide an assessment of its spatial patterns, rates of change, correlation, trends and policies with the use of geospatial technologies.

Research Aim

• The aim of this research is to investigate the pattern and extent of peri-urban land use changes in the Lagos megacity between 1976 and 2013 and their determinants through the application of spatial models.

Research Objectives

• To assess the extent of land use changes in peri-urban areas of Lagos megacity for the study period through the application of remote sensing and GIS.

• To compare the spatial and temporal variations in land use changes in the study area during the study period

• To investigate the determinants of land use changes in study area.

• To evaluate the roles and capacities of planning institutions in implementing existing land use planning policies and manage land use in the study area.

Research Questions

• What are the land use and land cover changes that has taken place in peri-urban areas of the Lagos Megacity between 1976 and 2013?

• What are the spatial and temporal variations in land use changes in the study area during the study period?

• What are the determinants of these land use changes?

• What are the institutional roles and capacities in implementing land use policies and managing land use change in the study area?

Study area:

Lagos Megacity, Lagos State in Nigeria

Lagos Megacity is a continuous built area spanning over 153,540 hectares of land comprising 18 Local Government Areas of Lagos State and four LGAs (i.e., Sagamu, Owode, Ifo and Ado-Odo/Otta) in the neighbouring Ogun State.It was ranked by United Nations (World Urbanization Prospects, 2007) as 9th

among the 28 current and prospective megacities in the world with a standard of living score of 19%. The city has experienced tremendous spatial and demographic growth which has led to continuous loss of forest and agricultural land to built-up areas.

Definition of Terms

• land use refers to the purpose or activities for which land is used. It emphasizes more on land's social properties, that is, the output of reconstruction activities that human adopts to manipulate, manage and regulate the land chronically and periodically according to determined economic and social purpose.

• Land cover on the other refers to the physical and biological cover over the earth surface of land, including water, vegetation, bare soil and artificial structures. It emphasizes the natural properties, it is defined as the biophysical cover of the earth’s surface, and it is the expression of human activities and synthetically reflection of various elements in global surface covered with natural body or synthetic features.

• Peri-urban is a term used in three different ways to mean a place, process and or concept. As a place-based term, it is the rural-urban fringe and transitional zone around the city characterised with intense interaction, flows and linkages between the rural and urban areas. It is the intermediary zone and geographical space where rural areas meet the urban areas. Whereas as a process it is the transition of rural to urban areas as well as the flow of goods, services and resources between the urban and the rural areas.

• In terms of concept-based definition, the proximity of the zone to urban centres is less significant; it is the co-existence of both rural and urban characteristics, linkages and the flow of goods and services between them that matters

LITRATURE REVIEW

Selected Authors (Global)

Author(s)/Year Research Theme Gaps

Baptista, 2010; Briassoulis,

2000

Theoretical framework for land

use change research

Even though most of the findings of

these studies are commendable and

useful, they were tailored to land use

change problem in the global north.

Assessing the impact of land use

change of cities on global

environmental change will be

incomplete without repeating such

investigation in cities in the global

south.

Brandon, 2000; Zhang, Kang,

Wang, & Sun, 2010

Applications of remote sensing

and GIS in land use change

detection and analysis

Lambin & Ehrlich, 1997;

Shariff, Gairola, & Talib, 2010;

Lesschen, Verburg, & Staal,

2005

Algorithms and methodology

for change detection

Braimoh & Vlek, 2004;

DiGregorio & Jansen, 1998

Analysis and quantification of

land use and land cover change

Serneels & Lambin, 2001;

Olson, Misana, Campbell,

Mbonile, & Mugisha, 2004

Drivers and determinants of

land use change

Irwin, 2003; Bell & Irwin, 2002;

Briassoulis, 2000

Modeling of land use change

Selected Authors (Local)Author(s)/Year Theme Gaps

Odumosu, 1992 Investigated the spatiotemporal changes

and metropolitanisation processes of

Lagos Metropolis using FA and PCA

Based on manual mapping techniques which lacked

accuracy in handling spatial data

Ikhuoria, 1993 Investigated the land use changes in

parts of Edo State with the use of aerial

photographs and field survey

Limited by human error associated with manual

processes of change detection inherent in the use of

aerial photographs

Omojola, 1998 Assessment of land use and land cover

change of Sokoto-Rima River basin by

the use of integrated remote sensing

and GIS techniques to assess the trend,

rate and impact of changes in the study

area for the periods of 1962, 1977 and

1986.

It could not determine the factors responsible for the

changes or predict scenarios.

Berredo and Demicheli, 2003 Land use changes between 1984 and

2000, also simulated the future urban

growth of the Lagos megacity for the

year 2020 through the Cellular Automata

(CA) model

Study was the use of secondary data (satellite

imageries) without adequate ground truthing and

collection of primary data (physical and socio-economic

characteristics) of the study area.

The use of 100mx100m as mapping unit is too large to

represent parcel level LU decisions

The drivers of change were not investigated

Adepoju et al, 2006 Change detection studies of Lagos for

the period of 1984 to 2002

The study considered change analysis without

investigating the drivers of the changes and models of

future changes

There are no concerns changes at peri-urban levels.

Lawanson, Yadua, & Salako, 2012;

Mandere, Ness, & Anderberg, 2010;

Simon, McGregor, & Nsiah-Gyabaah,

2004; Dung-Gwom, 2008; Buxton &

Low, 2007; Nkwae, 2006; Allen, 2003

Peri-urban characteristics and problems

associated with urban growth or

urbanization

the spatial nature of these problems arising from land

use changes in peri-urban areas were not considered.

Olaleye et al (2012) Understanding the Pattern Of Urban

Expansion in Greater Lagos, Nigeria

From 1984 To 2006

The major gap in this work is that the authors depended

on the imageries alone without any fieldwork.

THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK

Urban and Regional Economic Theories

Urban and

Regional

Economics

Approach

Micro-Economic

Theories

Agricultural Land Rent

Theory (von Thunen,

1966)

Urban Land Market

Theory (Alonso, 1964)

Agent-based theories

(Krugman 1996)

Macro-Economic

Theories

Spatial Economic

Equilibrium Theory

(Weber, 1929; Losch,

1954)

Growth Pole Theory

(Perroux, 1955;

Boudeville, 1966)

Cumulative Causation

Theory (Myrdal, 1957)

Micro-Economic Theories:

Von Thunen’ agricultural Rent theory (1826)

Alonso’s Bid Rent Theory (1964)

Location Theories of Land Use Change

R =f (Distance + Cost of Transport) R =f (Distance + Travel Time+ Cost + Utility)

Krugman’s Self Organizing Economy (1996)

•Humans and Firms interact with market forces to influence land use location decision through a ‘Self Organizing’ Process•Firms or manufacturing concerns located in peri-urban areas of cities tends to attract other land use activities and leads to the formation of 'edge cities'

Micro-Economic Theories:

Agent-Based Theories

Macro-Economic Theories:

Weber’s (Least Cost) Theory of Industrial Location(1929)

Christaller’s Modified Central Place Theory by August LoschModified (1954)

Spatial Equilibrium Theories

Industrial Location = Minimum input (transport +Labour Cost) +Agglomeration Economics

Regional Welfare and Economic Balance through hierarchical spatial interactionss

Macro-Economic Theories:

Perroux’s Growth Pole Theory (1949)

Myrdal’s Cumulative Causation Theory (1957) & Friedman’s Core-Periphery Theory (1954)

Spatial Disequilibrium Theories

Abstract Economic Space of influence leading to polarization

Spread and Backwash Effect

Sociological and Human Ecological Theories

Sociological

Approach

Human Ecological

Theories

Concentric Zone Theory

(Burges, 1925)

Radial Sector Theory

(Hoyt, 1939)

Multiple Nuclei Theory

(Harris and Ullman, 1945)

Metropolitan

Planning Theories

Theory of Metropolitan

Spatial Structure (Foley,

1964)

Metropolitan Planning

(Weber, 1964)

Activity Systems Theory

(Chapin, 1965)

Human ecological theories

Land Use Patterns emerges from processes of Invasions and Successions

Planning Theories of the MetropolisFoley’s ‘Theory of Metropolitan Spatial Structure’ (1964) upheld that personalities, social and cultural values, norms shapes the cityChapin’s ‘Theory of Activity Systems’ (1974) emphasizes the role of the personalities and individual decision in spatial structuring of cities

CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK

The DPSIR FRAMEWORKThis framework, which was developed by the European Environment Agency in 1999, with the aim of analysing the cause-effect relationships between interacting components of complex social, economic and environmental systems and the managing of information flow within its components.

The DPSIR FRAMEWORKThe DPSIR model have been applied to diverse environmental problems in several countries including land use change studies in Europe, the US, East Africa and Ghana. The model was used in land use change studies in Europe’s Peri-urban Land Use Relationships (PLUREL) project between 2007 and 2011, the East Africa’s Land Use Change Impacts and Dynamics (LUCID) project and the assessment of land degradation in Northern Ghana.

OPERATIONAL SYNTHESIS OF CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORKThe research will be divided into four (4) major phases:1. Analysis change in ‘State’ between Pre-plan (1976) and Post-plan (2013) periods2. Determining the ‘Drivers’, ‘Pressures’ and ‘Impact’ though field survey3. Developing Spatial Models to explain and predict ‘State ‘Pressures’ and ‘Impact’ 4. Evaluation of ‘Response’ by land use management instruments and policies

Land Use Policies

• The Land Use Act of 1978• Land Policy of the New Order (1980)• Subsidiary Legislation and Policies:• Guidelines to establish the procedure for processing an

approval for private estate within Lagos.• Regulation on zoning.• Development schemes and land improvement programmes.• Regional Plan (1980 – 2000AD).• Master Plan for Lagos metropolis (1980-2000A.D)• Ground rent and development charges regulations.• Town and Country Planning Edict of 1985; Town and Country

Planning (Building Plans) Regulations of 1986-2010• Town and Country Planning (condition for development of

government land by private developers) Etc.

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

Research Design

• The research adopts a hybrid approach of spatial analysis of land use change and survey research methods.

• Quantitative and qualitative data collection methods will be used

Data Sources (Primary)

• Physical and environmental survey• Quantitative field surveys (using

questionnaires)• Focused group discussions and

qualitative interviews. • Focused groups

CDAs, families and individual tenure holders, land agents, land use planners, property valuers and allied professionals.

Data Sources (Secondary)

Acquisition

Date

Satellite

NumberSensor Type WRS Path/Row UTM

ZoneDatum Spatial

Resolution

(M)

Sources & Year

08/12/2013 Landsat 8 OLI_TIRS 191/55 31N WGS84 28.5-30 USGS, 2014

07/12/2006 Landsat 7 ETM+ 191/55 31 N WGS84 28.5-30 USGS,2011

24/12/1986 Landsat 5 MSS 191/55 31 N WGS84 28.5-30 USGS, 1986

Supporting Spatial Data/Demographic Data

Feb 2002 STRM (DEM) 3-ARC USGS,2002

1993/95 Land Use/Land Cover Map FORMECU, 1995

1976/78 Land Use/Land Cover Map FORMECU, 1978

1980 Lagos Metropolitan Master Plan (1980-200) Wilbur Smith Assoc

1980 The Lagos State Regional Plan (1980-2000) Doxiadis Associates

2006 Population of Lagos State National Population Census NPC

1991 Population of Lagos State National Population Census NPC

Targeted population and Unit of Analysis

Levels Targeted Population Data Sources Objectives

Parcel -Parcel Owners /households

-Field Survey-GPS

-Determinants of Land Use Change

Neighbourhood - Income groups (High/Medium/Low)-Tenure holders/Families-Community groups

-Remote Sensed Imageries-Vector Maps-Focus Group Interviews

Determinants of Land Use Change

Local GovernmentArea

-Community groups-Governmental Agencies-Non-Governmental Agencies

-Remote Sensed Imageries-Vector Maps-Census Data-Land Use Policies

-Analysis of land use patterns/variations-Policy Analysis-Spatial Models

Administrative Division

-Community groups-Governmental Agencies-Non-Governmental Agencies

-Remote Sensed Imageries-Vector Maps-Census Data-Land Use Policies

-Analysis of land use patterns/variations-Policy Analysis-Spatial Models

• :

Four (4) functional levels of observation have been selected for analysis in this study

Specification of Variables

• In order to investigating the land use change that has occurred in peri-urban areas of Lagos Megacity with the view of determining its proximate and underlying causes.

• There will be the application of Ordinary Least Square (OLS) Regression and Geographically Weight Regression (GWR) in this research.

• This is similar to the ‘Model of Residential Growth’ known as the North Carolina Model cited in Chapin and Kaiser (1979)

• In the model above, the dependent variable (Y) is Land Use Change is the explanatory variables (X1, X2, X3…Xn) are factors responsible for change (like population growth, land use policies, land value, distance to employment, physical characteristics of site, accessibility, etc.) and regression coefficients is B, while the residual or random error term is E .

Specification of VariablesVariables Type Unit

Dependent Variable

Rate of Land Use Change from Non

Urban to Urban

Continuous Per Annum

Independent Variables

Distance to major roads Continuous km

Distance to place of employment Continuous km

Distance to the Lagos CBD Continuous km

Cost of Transportation Continuous 0-5

Environmental Suitability Categorical 0-1

Suitability for agriculture Categorical 0-1

Land value and rent Categorical 1-5

Housing Demand Categorical 1-5

Population density Continuous persons/km2

Housing density Continuous Units/km2

Employment type of house owner Categorical 1-5

Income level Categorical 1-5

Literacy levels Categorical 1-5

Socio-cultural influence Categorical 1-5

Agricultural and forestry policies Categorical 1-5

Land tenure Categorical 1-5

Land Use Policies and management

practices

Categorical 1-5

Land use zoning Binary 0-1

Sampling Frame and Sizes

GeographicalFrame (Lagos Megacity)

Non-urbanLGA (1976)

Samplesize (LGA)

Wards Sample Wards

Identified Parcels

Sample Parcels

Lagos State 9 6 81 42 364796 664

Ogun State 4 4 57 15 65616 119

Total 13 10 138 57 430412 783

% of Frame 77% 41% 0.2%

A sample size of 783 parcels was derived for a population size of 430,412 at a 95% confidence level and a level 3.5% margin of error using Cochran (1977) formula.

•Two groups of sample frames were adopted •The first group is geographical frames, which comprises of 13 local government councils in the Lagos Megacity region (Lagos and Ogun States) with less than 50% urban land use in 1976 and 138 total number of wards in these councils.The second frame is the total number of parcels identified in the study area.

Sampling Procedure and Techniques

• The study adopts a multi-staged sampling technique.• First is a geographic area sampling, which draws

samples systematically from local government councils and wards.

• Secondly, Parcels or properties will be selected randomly in sampled wards and neighbourhoods (which are enumeration areas) for administering questionnaires.

• Geographical coordinates (X and Y coordinates) of these parcels will be linked as points to the household data on GIS maps and imageries with the aid of a handheld GPS.

Methods of Data Collection and Analysis

Research Questions Scope of Investigation Data Collection

Methods

Data Analysis Methods Phases

What are the land use and

land cover changes that has

taken place in peri-urban

areas of the Lagos

Metropolitan Area between

1976 and 2013

-Land use/Land cover

change analysis

-Ground truthing

-Satellite Imageries

(LANDSAT Multi-temporal

Imageries);

Ikonos high level resolution

Imageries

-Image Processing

-Change detection

-accuracy assessment

-Change Statistics

-co-occurrence matrix

Spatial statistical

Phase 1

What are the spatial and

temporal variations in land

use changes in the study

area during the study

period?

-Land use/Land cover

change analysis

-pattern of development

-Land use densities

distribution

-Satellite Imageries

-Spatial and non-spatial data

-census data/maps

- GIS Based Spatial

Analysis

-Spatial statistical analysis

ANOVA

Phase 1

What are the determinants

of these land use changes?

Field survey and

investigation

-Questionnaires Interview,

focussed group discussions

-socioeconomic survey/data

-spatial data ,census data

-Analysis of natural and

anthropogenic driving forces

-Quantitative analysis

-SPSS

ANOVA

Phase 2/Phase 3

How effective are existing

land use planning policies in

managing land use change

during the study period and

what implication does this

have for the study area?

-Land Use Policy Analysis

-SDI Evaluation

-Structured interview

-Focussed group discussion

-Questionnaires

Quantitative and qualitative

analysis

Phase 4

CONCLUSION

Expected Contribution to Knowledge

• The research will contribute to understanding the spatial variations in land use change across the study area

• It will combine theories and methodologies from various disciplines (earth sciences, social sciences and computer sciences) to understand the urban growth and structure of the Lagos Megacity

• It will validate the applicability of existing economic and social theories of land use change

• It will contribute to understanding the most important drivers of peri-urbanization in the study area.

• It will contribute to developing appropriate framework for land use policy analysis in Nigeria

Thank You and God Bless