MEETING THE TARGETS TO KEEP WARMING

BELOW 2°C, A NEW US PATHWAY

Luca Soppelsa http://nl.linkedin.com/in/lucasoppelsa

29.11.2015

Content

Introduction

US Climate pledges

US current GHG emissions

Opportunities to curb GHGs

US strategy towards the 2°C pathway

New stringent & comprehensive policies

Investments to meet the 2030 targets

Renewable electricity generation

Conclusions and way forward

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Introduction

A major increase in the level of climate actions is needed to limit global warming below 2°C.

Concrete steps must be taken by both:

Annex I countries and

Non-Annex I countries.

Without further mitigation global temperature might rise by 3.7 to 4.8°C over the 21st century (5th IPCC AR)

By acting now the costs to stay below 2°C are modest (0.04-0.14% reduction of consumption)

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US climate policies & pledge pathway

June 2, 2014: New “Clean Power Plan” 30% reduction GHGs

from electricity sector by 2030 (compared to 2005)

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Meeting the targets to keep warming below 2°C, a new US pathway

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Source: Climate Action Tracker

17% reduction of GHG compared

to 2005 39% reduction of GHG compared

to 2005

US GHG emissions by economic sector in 2012

US is 2nd largest GHG emitter

Electricity generation produces

biggest share of GHGs (32%)

Fossil fuels still playing a major

economic role in all sectors:

> 70% electricity generation;

> 90% transportation fuel is petroleum based;

> 50% Industry emissions;

Heating and cooking for commercial and residential use

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Source: US EPA

Opportunities to curb GHGs

Economic Sector Opportunity Implementation

Electricity generation Increase efficiency of power plants, fuel

switching and increase efficiency at the end-

use (decrease demand)

Convert coal-powered turbine into

gas-powered turbine

Electricity generation Renewable energy Increase share of electricity

generated from wind, solar, hydro

Transportation Fuel switching and increase fuel efficiency Use of bio-fuels and electric

vehicles

Transportation Decrease travel demand Building public transportation to

decrease the miles people have to

drive

Industry Energy efficiency, fuel switching and recycling

of industrial products

More efficient industrial

technologies & replace of coal

Commercial/Residential Decrease energy use through energy efficiency Green buildings with better

insulation & efficient lighting

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US strategy towards the 2°C pathway7

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A full decarbonisation path requires a radical shift in the production, delivery and use of energy. The demand is for a rapid and holistic transition.

A three-fold approach:

A decarbonisation of electricity generation;

A widespread electrification of the end-uses;

Enhancements in the end-use energy efficiency.

Transformation in the electricity generation mix renewables play a dominant role

Investments in R&D accelerate the change

New stringent & comprehensive policies8

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Emission trading systems;

Binding targets to reduce emissions and increase energy efficiency;

Limitations in the construction and use of coal-fired plants;

Phase-out of fossil fuel subsidies;

Legislation to raise the share of renewable energy sources;

International cooperation;

Reduction of political and regulatory uncertainties to mobilize the

private sector participation

Consistent, long-term and credible policies must be

implemented to promote the investments

Investments to meet the 2030 targets9

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Yearly US$ 294 billion in energy supply

Yearly US$ 61 billion in renewable electricity (0.30% US GDP)

Yearly US$ 88 billion in energy efficiency

Taking into account of US regional heterogeneity

Investments to meet the 2030 targets10

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Yearly US$ 294 billion in energy supply

Yearly US$ 61 billion in renewable electricity (0.30% US GDP)

Yearly US$ 88 billion in energy efficiency

Taking into account of US regional heterogeneity

Renewable electricity generation: technical

capacity potential & future installed capacity 11

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Technical capacity potential

Renewable electricity generation

> 5,000 GW

3,001 GW to 5,000 GW

2,001 GW to 3,000 GW

1,000 GW to 2,000 GW

< 1,000 GW

Solar

Wind

Bioenergy

Hydro

GeothermalSource: own elaboration on NREL data

Renewable electricity generation: technical

capacity potential & future installed capacity 12

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Renewable

energy

source

Technical capacity

potential

Renewable

electricity

generation (GW)

%

Installed

capacity in

2012 (GW)

%

Share of

installed

capacity over

total potential

Billion US$

Investments

forecast

2014-2030

Avg. Capex

(US$ billion)

per GW

2014 - 2030

forecast new

installed

capacity (GW)

Total

capacity

installed in

2030 (GW)

Share of installed

capacity over

total potential in

2030

Wind 15,178 GW 8.7% 59.57 36.4% 0.4% 397 2.45 162.37 221.94 1.5%

Solar 154,856 GW 88.9% 8.18 5.0% 0.0% 221 1.77 124.86 133.03 0.1%

Bioenergy 62 GW 0.0% 14.02 8.6% 22.6% 148 6.16 24.03 38.04 61.4%

Hydro 98 GW 0.1% 78.26 47.9% 79.9% 54 2.95 18.31 96.56 98.5%

Geothermal 4,000 GW 2.3% 3.50 2.1% 0.1% 217 4.61 47.07 50.58 1.3%

Total 174,195 GW 100.0% 163.52 100.0% 0.1% 1,037 376.63 540.15 0.3%

Conclusions & way forward

The US "Clean Power Plan" is insufficient for a 2°C pathway;

Holistic and stringent Federal policies to attain targets;

3-fold approach where renewable electricity plays a key role;

Policies need to promote new energy investments;

Immediate action to minimize the costs;

UN Climate Summit in Paris: policymakers, businesses and

financiers together can make the change happen.

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Thank you for your attention

Luca Soppelsa http://nl.linkedin.com/in/lucasoppelsa

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