Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
69th SWCS International Annual Conference July 27-30, 2014 Lombard, IL
Citation preview
© Mark Godfrey
Connecting Climate Change to Conservation
Soil & Water Conservation Society MtgJuly 29, 2014 – Chicago
Credits: IPCC 2007, Photos – Photography Plus, Julie Craves
IPCC Fifth Assessment (2013) – Summary for Policymakers Fig 1a.
1˚C = 1.8˚F
IPCC Fifth Assessment (2013) – Summary for Policymakers Fig 7a.
Key concepts: Mitigation and Adaptation
Mitigation – Actions that reduce the build up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and slow the rate of climate change.
Adaptation – Adjustments in human or natural systems that promote persistence/function under changed climatic conditions.
Ecosystem based adaptation – The use of biodiversity and ecosystem services to help people adapt to the adverse effects of climate change.
Conservation practices can have multiple adaptation‐related benefits:
Agricultural system Ecological systemReducing risks to people
How do we make them as effective as possible? Think about the future, test for hidden assumptions of stationarity.
˚
Stationarity is dead – or should be!
Modified from Cooper 2011
61 - 70
71 - 80
81 - 90
91 - 100
101 - 120
121 - 140
141 - 160
161 - 180
201 - 250
251 - 300
301 - 350
351 - 400
401 - 500
501 - 600
181 - 200
Our assumptions need to keep pace. Example: “R” factor – rainfall erosivity
US National Assessment 2009
If this is what is projected...
Components of vulnerability
Vulnerability = Exposure X Sensitivity- Adaptive capacity
Exposure for Midwest region
Increases in air & water temps, longer growing season.
Increased intensity of storm events, changes in precipitation patterns & freeze/thaw frequency.
Increased drought stress, lake levels potentially more variable, more variable flow rates (higher highs, lower lows).
Temperature and Biology
A key biological factor that shapes species life histories.
For insects, reptiles, fish, etc., strongly influences metabolic rate/energy balance.
Acts as a “cue” for timing of many seasonal events (e.g., insect emergence).
Influences oxygen levels in water, transpiration rates, water requirements...
2070-99 relative to 1970-99
Source: January 2013 draft of US National Climate Assessment
Diffenbaugh et al. Environmental Research Letters (2008)
% Chance of Corn Earworm Surviving WinterCurrent 60 Years from Now
100%4% 50%25% 75%
Projected changes in precipitation
Projections are highly variable by location and season(Clouds!)
Increases in extreme rain events (+30%), drier periods in between
For most models, higher temps override increases in rainin summer/fall ‐‐Evaporation/transpirationIncreases – DROUGHT stress
Defined as heaviest 1% of events, 1958-2011
Source: January 2013 draft of US National Climate Assessment
Ontario Chapter of SWCS – 2007
Summary of observed/estimated changes in rainfall and erosion,
Southern Ontario, 1970s-2000s
Sensitivity: increased erosion potential. How do we update our strategies?
Conservation practices
Watershed models
May 1, 2014, www.nbc.news.com
Lobell et al. 2014, Science 344:516.
Michalak et al. 2013 – PNAS 110: 6448
Multiple climate drivers (2011) -
Contributed to massive impacts.
Temperature :• Evapotranspiration rate• Snow/rain proportion, period with frozen ground• Length of growing season
Precipitation amount and intensity:• Erosion/sedimentation• Plant growth• Runoff/infiltration
Carbon dioxide concentration• Water use efficiency
Complexity: Sensitivity checklist for models
What scenarios best evaluate our risks?
Custom climate scenarios from ClimateWizard ‐‐ subsets of models, informed by knowledge of the threat & fish ecology
Steps forward to update our thinking...
Modified from Cooper 2011
61 - 70
71 - 80
81 - 90
91 - 100
101 - 120
121 - 140
141 - 160
161 - 180
201 - 250
251 - 300
301 - 350
351 - 400
401 - 500
501 - 600
181 - 200
“R” factor –peak rainfall
US National Assessment 2009
If this is what is projected...
Framing change: Focal site in Saginaw Bay –current 80, to 120, 200, 300?
Using tools in “off-label” ways – Change R Great Lakes Water Management System
147 acre field,
Cass River Watershed,
Saginaw Bay region
Outcomes: Framing of impacts in terms that facilitate dialog, and promote action
147 acre field,
Cass River Watershed,
Saginaw Bay region
“current” erosion R = 80
Conventional tillage
Future erosion?
No till
No till + cover crop
Conservation practices can have multiple adaptation‐related benefits:
Agricultural systemEcological systemReducing risks to people
How do wemake them as effective as possible? Think about the future, test for hidden assumptions of stationarity.
Acknowledgements
