Upload
marilyn-dennis
View
214
Download
0
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
PRBO Conservation Science
Adapting to Sea Level Rise along the North Bay Shoreline
June 28, 2012 | 8:30 am – 12:30 pm
PRBO Conservation Science
Applied Bird and Ecosystem Science to Advance Conservation for Wildlife and People
• Founded in 1965• 140+ staff and
seasonal
biologists
Using birds and other species as indicators of change
PRBO Conservation Science
PRIORITY: Reduce Impacts of Environmental Change on Ecosystems & Enhance Capacity to Adapt
Tuna
Matt Jalbert
CLIMATE CHANGE
PRBO Conservation Science
Workshop Purpose
Solicit management information needs for analyses that could be completed by PRBO
Conservation Science using our online decision support tool to plan for and respond to sea level
rise along the North Bay shoreline.
PRBO Conservation Science
Workshop Objectives
To gain an understanding of…
• Management questions related to sea level rise that could
be addressed through the use of our decision support tool.
• Adaptation, restoration, and/or management planning
actions related to sea level rise and storm hazards
underway or being considered, and their geographic extent.
• Stakeholders’ processes for planning for sea level rise and
storm hazards and how to best integrate decision support
tools.
PRBO Conservation Science
Project overview
• Assess stakeholder information needs
• Assess vulnerabilities to sea level rise
• Assess conservation priorities and opportunities to use natural habitat to buffer human infrastructure from impacts of sea-level rise and increased storm intensity
• Adapt web-based decision support tool (www.prbo.org/sfbayslr) to effectively deliver these results.
PRBO Conservation Science
Project Timeline
Task Jun-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Jan-13
Stakeholder workshops, identify data gaps x
Acquire and synthesize missing data x x
Preliminary results, user feedback x x
Website beta version, user feedback x
Final website, workshop, final recommendations x
Present findings to NBWA Board x
PRBO Conservation Science
• Historic marshes were diked off • Agriculture, salt production, development
• Levees now breached to restore tidal marsh
Background- Changing Landscape
Sonoma Baylands
Diked Baylands Restored marsh
PRBO Conservation Science
05
01
00
15
0
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008Year
Pe
rce
nt
Ch
an
ge
Common Yellowthroat Population Change, Estuary-wide
-20
02
04
06
08
0
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008Year
Pe
rce
nt
Ch
an
ge
Black Rail Population Change, Estuary-wide
Tidal Marsh Bird Project
© Peter LaTourrette
Nur and Wood, unpublished
© VIREO
• Began in 1996• Status and trends of tidal marsh birds• Identify important habitat features
PRBO Conservation Science-2
00
20
40
60
80
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008Year
Pe
rce
nt
Ch
an
ge
Black Rail Population Change, Estuary-wide
Tidal Marsh Bird Project
© Peter LaTourrette2050
?0
50
10
01
50
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008Year
Pe
rce
nt
Ch
an
ge
Common Yellowthroat Population Change, Estuary-wide
2050
?© VIREO
Nur and Wood, unpublished
• Began in 1996• Status and trends of tidal marsh birds• Identify important habitat features• How will changing climate affect bird populations?
PRBO Conservation Science
Challenges in projecting the future of marshes
• No Baywide marsh response to sea-level rise
• “Bathtub” SLR models not appropriate for dynamic tidal marsh systems
• Lots of uncertainty
PRBO Conservation Science
Vermeer and Rahmstorf, PNAS 2009
1.9 m
A few words about uncertainty
0.18 to 0.59 m Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007)
does not include ice sheet contributions
0.5 to 1.9 m Rahmstorf (Science, 2007)/
Vermeer and Rahmstorf (PNAS, 2009)
relates sea level rise to mean surface temperature
0.8 to 2 m Pfeffer et al. (Science, 2008)
constrained by observations of ice sheet dynamics
5 m Hansen (Environ. Res. Lett., 2007)
non-linearity, amplifying polar feedbacks- ‘albedo flip’
sea level was 75 m higher at ~50 Ma
at 5 Ma, sea level was ~25 m higher , but only 2-3oC
warmer (A2 emissions scenario is 4.5 oC warmer)Patrick Barnard, USGS
5 m
PRBO Conservation Science
Tool development
• Elevation• Subregional scenarios
• Suspended sediment• Organic accumulation
PRBO Conservation Science
Tool development
• Elevation• Subregional scenarios
• Suspended sediment• Organic accumulation
• Sea-level rise
From National Research Council, adopted by ACOE
PRBO Conservation Science
Peer Reviewed Publication
Evaluating tidal marsh sustainability in the face of sea-level rise: a hybrid modeling approach applied to San Francisco Bay
Stralberg, D., M. Brennan,
J.C. Callaway, J.K. Wood,
L.M. Schile, D. Jongsomjit,
M. Kelly, V.T. Parker, and
S. Crooks.
• PLoS ONE 2011 (
http://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0027388)
PRBO Conservation Science
Results – summary of key findings
• Models are sensitive to sediment and sea level rise scenarios but not organic accumulation
• We project increases in tidal marsh habitat in all scenarios except for low sediment/ high sea level rise (93% of mid and high marsh lost)
• Up to 7,500 ha (current) and ~32,500 ha (future sed high/slr low) of diked baylands have restoration potential.
• Up to 3,300 ha of uplands could become marsh by 2100.
• Sediment-rich areas have better prospects for long-term sustainability.
Sed High/ SLR Low
Sed High/ SLR High
Sed Low/ SLR Low
Sed Low/ SLR High
-100
-50
0
50
100
150Mid Marsh
Scenario
% C
ha
ng
e i
n a
rea
fro
m
20
10
PRBO Conservation Science
Changes in Plant and Bird Distributions
Common Yellowthroat Clapper Rail
Song Sparrow
Black Rail
Marsh Wren
PRBO Conservation Science
Changes in Plant and Bird Distributions
Common Yellowthroat
Song Sparrow
Black Rail
Marsh Wren
+15 Tidal Marsh Plant Species
Clapper Railwww.prbo.org/sfbayslr
PRBO Conservation Science
© VIREO
How will tidal marsh birds respond to future scenarios?
We used our bird observations with marsh accretion results to model tidal marsh bird response to sea level rise, including changes in salinity
PRBO Conservation Science
Tidal marsh birds are also sensitive to scenarios
Pe
rce
nt
cha
ng
e
Pe
rce
nt
cha
ng
e
Pe
rce
nt
cha
ng
e
Year
Year
Year
© VIREO
PRBO Conservation Science
Example question 1: Restoration Prioritization
• Example question: Will planned restoration projects be resilient/ successful with sea level rise?
• Example decision: Some projects are resilient to sea level rise, others will require adaptive management.
PRBO Conservation Science
Example question 2: Upland marsh migration
• Example question: Where should we promote marsh migration into currently upland habitat?
• Example decision: We can look at where upslope migration of marshes does not conflict with alternative land uses
PRBO Conservation Science
Example question 3: Ecosystem services
• Example question: Where does tidal marsh habitat provide flood protection? Where will assets become vulnerable due to loss of habitat?
• Example decision: Loss of ecosystem services could increase vulnerability to flooding. Actively managing for tidal marsh habitat could increase asset protection.