Environment Challenges:Climate Change

Water, Energy

James M. ByrneProfessor of Geography

Prentice Institute Affiliate

University of Lethbridge

Earth: The Operators Manual

Who owns the climate problem?

Los Angeles

Is it us?

The most profound danger to world peace in the coming years will stem … from the

legitimate demands of the world's dispossessed ... the majority live a marginal

existence in equatorial climates. Global warming … originating with the wealthy

few, will affect their fragile ecologies most. Their situation will be desperate and

manifestly unjust.

100 Nobel Laureates Warn Our PlanetOSLO, Norway December 7, 2001

Who was borne in 1960?

Borne in 1960? Your Net GHG Emissions

Recent GHG t/yr

GHG Sum t/1960-2012

India 1.4 ~25China 6 ~100North America 25 ~800Alberta 70 ~1500*

Developed world lead in GHG emission reductions

*Not the average Albertan*Not average Kainai Resident

Climate Impacts?

USA Tornadoes 2011-12-13

Tropical Cyclone Haiyan

Australia Bureau of Meteorology

UK Storms and Flooding

Drought?

• Africa, South America

• Russia, Australia

• Canada – Ontario, Prairies, BC

• USA

– Southwest, Southeast

– Texas, Oklahoma, Great Plains

Hurricane Sandy

Buffalo, NY

Weather in steroids!How can we solve climate change?

Nanton, Alberta, January 4, 2012

Massive southern Alberta grass fires force 3,500 to leave homes

Munich Re

Climate Change and Us - water?

• Drought western North America, 2000-2004

Upper St. Mary Watershed, Glacier

Park, Montana

• 2000 km2

• Water supply -300,000 ha irrigation in Canada & USA

St. Mary Spring Runoff to 2100?Simulated Spring Streamflow Trend

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091

Modelled Q

S (

million m

3)

Scenario 1

Scenario 2

Historical (solid is base period)

Larson 2011A, 2011B

Modest GHG emission cuts

below business as usual

<3

3-4.99

5-6.99

7+

1961-1990 Fire Seasonal Severity Rating:St. Mary Watershed

Impacts on Aquatic Life?

Enhanced Recovery of Oil and Gas with Hydraulic Fracturing:

Environmental Concerns

James M. Byrne, Ph.D.

Professor and Chair, Geography

University of Lethbridge

Industry

• Hydraulic fracturing is a proven technological advancement which allows natural gas producers to safely recover natural gas from deep shale formations

• Ground and surface water contamination

• earthquake generation

• Air pollution emissions

• Leaking methane, a potent greenhouse gas.

Science

Methane leakage up to 9% of production!

Long term Pollution

Concerns?

• Rivers?

• Groundwater?

• Local air emissions?

• Methane leakage?

Fossil fuel balance sheet ($billions)

• Stern report $1,000

• Fossil fuel subsidies $ 600

• Annual damages $1,200

• Oil purchases $2,000

• Coal Purchases $ 500

• Natural Gas $ 500

• Health care costs $1,000

• TOTAL SAVINGS $4,800

$1900 IMF

$6100

Fracking?$?,???.??

Converting Society to Electricity?

IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF PLUG-IN HYBRID VEHICLES ON ELECTRIC UTILITIES AND

REGIONAL U.S.POWER GRIDSMichael Kintner-Meyer

Kevin Schneider Robert Pratt

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

JOURNAL OF EUEC, Volume 1, 2007

Grid-Auto Integration

Grid --

Grid --

Grid ++

Eliminates GHG emissions for 86%of light cars and trucks

Health benefits of pollution reduction!

Mark Jacobson, Stanford University • 3.8 million large wind

turbines

• 90,000 solar plants

• geothermal, tidal power

• rooftop photovoltaic installations (Germany)

• Cost effective compared to fossil fuels

Wind Speeds

Archer, C. L., and M. Z. Jacobson (2005), Evaluation of global wind power, J. Geophys. Res. 110 , D12110, doi: 0.1029/2004JD005462

Solar EnergyLethbridge = Houston, Tx

PHOTOVOLTAIC RESOURCE MAPS FOR CANADA Sophie Pelland, Daniel W. McKenney, Yves Poissant, Robert Morris, Kevin Lawrence, Kathy Campbell and PiaPapadopol, CANMET Energy Technology Centre-Varennes, Natural Resources Canada, 1615 Lionel-BouletBlvd., Varennes, Québec, Canada, J3X 1S6

Agriculture, waste and energy

http://calculator.carbonfootprint.com/calculator.aspx?tab=8

8.3 tonnes CO2e

Summary• Fossil fuels - declining use

• Climate and weather on steroids getting worse

• Solutions: cut GHG emissions– Electric and hybrid automobiles

– Power grid conversion to renewables

• Alberta - renewable investments– Wind, solar, biomass & biogas, heat exchange

– Geothermal – individual and community

• Kainai Reserve has big solar, wind potential

Thanks for listening

Discussion?

References

• http://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/iedindex3.cfm?tid=1&pid=1&aid=2&cid=ww,&syid=2000&eyid=2011&unit=TST#