Climate, agriculture and food security global and regional trends to 2050

Climate, Agriculture and Food SecurityGlobal and Regional Trends to 2050

Keith WiebeSenior Research Fellow, IFPRI

Global Landscapes ForumParis, 5 December 2015

• IMPACT – an integrated modeling system to assess agricultural and food security scenarios• Collaboration with all 15 CGIAR

centers through GFSF

• Collaboration with other global economic modeling groups through AgMIP

Climate and socioeconomic drivers

Representative Concentration Pathways(RCPs)

Source: Downloaded from the RCP Database version 2.0.5 (2015). RCP 2.6: van Vuuren et al. 2006; van Vuuren et al. 2007. RCP 4.5: Clark et al. 2007; Smith and Wigley 2006; Wise et al 2009. RCP 6.0: Fujino et al 2006; Hijioka et al 2008. RCP 8.5: Riahi and Nakicenovic, 2007.

CO2 eq. (ppm)Radiative forcing(W/m2)

Population (billion) GDP (trillion USD, 2005 ppp)Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs)

Composition of diets (SSP2, NoCC)

Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015

WLD = World; EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean; MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa

Total global demand (SSP2, NoCC)20

10 =

1.0

Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, September 2015

Growth in global cereal production (SSP2, NoCC)


Growth in global oilseed production (SSP2, NoCC)


Modeling climate impacts on agriculture:

biophysical and economic effects

General circulation

models (GCMs)

Global gridded crop

models (GGCMs)

Global economic

modelsΔ TempΔ Precip

…

Δ Yield(biophys)

Δ AreaΔ YieldΔ Cons.Δ Trade

Climate Biophysical Economic

Source: Nelson et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2014)

Climate change and rainfed maize yieldsin 2050, before economic responses (HadGEM2, RCP 8.5)

Source: IFPRI DSSAT simulations

Climate change impacts on cereal yieldsby region (SSP2)


WLD = World; EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean; MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa

Maize

Wheat

Cereals

Climate and socioeconomic drivers – impacts on prices


SSPs

RCPs

Cereals Meats

Net cereal trade and climate change(SSP2)


EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean; MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa

Population at risk of hunger (SSP2, RCP8.5)


EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean; MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa

Exploring the impacts of improved technologies and practices on…

-40.0

-35.0

-30.0

-25.0

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0Malnourished Children Pop. at-risk-of-hunger

No till Drought tolerance Heat tolerance

Nitrogen use efficiency Integrated soil fertility mgt Precision agriculture

Water harvesting Sprinkler irrigation Drip irrigation

Crop Protection - insects

Source: Rosegrant et al. (2014)

Food Security(Percent difference from 2050 CC baseline)

Source: Islam et al. (draft)

Crop yields(Percent difference from 2050 CC baseline)

Conclusions• Significant impacts at global and regional scales, reducing

gains in productivity and food security

• Significant differences across regions, crops, scenarios

• Economic responses reduce biophysical impacts

• These depend critically on policy and market conditions – and decisions

• Significant challenges for decision makers at all levels

Thank [email protected]

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Environment

Climate, agriculture and food security global and regional trends to 2050