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18 September 2015
Navigating the Global‘Safe Operating Space’
Dr Sarah Cornell
18 September 2015
Dr Sarah Cornell
“The problem is the idea that the planet has a cockpit, and in that cockpit, we can change course.
The planet doesn’t work like that”Maarten Hajer, PBL Netherlands
Navigating the Global‘Safe Operating Space’
• Ecological integrity• Social equity• Economic stability• Good governance• A robust knowledge base
The global community shares core sustainability principles
(Stockholm 1972 and Rio 1992, affirmed in Rio 2012)
Can we see the horizon?
“…large-scale loss of biodiversity is likely to occur in a 4°C world, with climate change and high CO2 driving a transition of the Earth's ecosystems
into a state unknown in human experience.”World Bank “Turn down the heat” 2012
Gruber & Galloway 2008. An Earth-system perspective of the global nitrogen cycle. Nature 451, 293-296, doi:10.1038/nature06592.
There is a European regional nitrogen assessment: www.nine-esf.org/ENA and a global nutrients review: www.initrogen.org/sites/default/files/documents/files/ONW.pdf
Many are now calling for a global nutrient assessment.
https://www.vets.ucar.edu/vg/NGCM/movies/ngcm_co2so2.mpg
Excellent animations of model output and satellite data here: https://www.vets.ucar.edu/vg/categories/chemistry.shtml
Back to those Great Acceleration trajectories…
We need a different perspective on human impacts
• Unabated global environmental degradation brings new risks to human societies.
• We must address many critical resources and processes urgently and at the same time.
Rockström and 27 co-authors (2009) ‘A Safe Operating Space for Humanity’: research article in Ecology & Society, discussion article in Nature.
Steffen and 17 co-authors (2015) ’Planetary Boundaries: guiding human development on a changing planet’: published in Science www.sciencemag.org/lookup/doi/10.1126/science.1259855
Urgent issues – Bend these curves!• Climate change and ocean acidification
(mainly due to CO2 emission)
• Biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation
• Perturbed biogeochemical cycling (release of N and P)
• Land use and land cover change
• Systemic chemical pollution
• Freshwater abstraction
• Altered atmospheric physics and chemistry (aerosol loading, stratospheric ozone)
• Interacting pressures, building up fast
Science Policy Decision landscape
Climate Earth system knowledge, local gaps
Global agreement on targets
and metrics
Big science
Biodiversity Local knowledge, system gaps
Global agreement on targets
and metrics
Concerned coalitions
Biogeochemistry Gaps in local and system knowledge
Partial regional agreements,
emerging issue
Many different players
Chemical pollution Local knowledge, system gaps
Partial agreements, weak metrics
Big business
Science for real world use?
Strong policy interest: UN GSP’s ‘Resilient People, Resilient Planet’ (2012), UN Rio+20, UNEP GEO5 (2012), national assessments (Sweden, Switzerland, South Africa, Germany), EEAC discussions, LCA researchers, green investors,
UN Sustainable Development Goals (planetary boundaries processes are the focus of goals 6, 13 and 15, others are included in targets for goals 3, 11, 12, 13 and 14 )
Cornell and Downing (2014) Environment, Absolute?
The planetary boundaries concept builds on knowledge about global processes
that already present global risksIssue Global assessments Policy structures
Climate change IPCC AR 1990, 1995, 2001, 2007, 2014; SRES; UNHDR…
IPCC, UNFCCC SBSTAMany international conventions
Ecosystem change
MA 2005; CBD GBO1-3; UNEP GEO1-5; TEEB; FAO…
IPBES and CBD SBSTTACBD, CITES, other conventions
Biogeochemical change
UNEP GPNM 2013; WMO/IAEA/UNEP GESAMP
INI, GPNM, WHO, FAO, WMO, IPCC, GPRI. Several conventions.
Chemical pollution
UNEP AMAP and other regional
SETAC, SCI, WHO-IFCS,Many conventions.
Nykvist et al. (2013) National responsibility (SEPA/SEI/SRC); Cornell and Downing (2014) Environment, Absolute?
Who steers the world, and how?
• Science push + policy pull Changing landscape for business
SDGs, MEAs, market creation Changing risks and opportunities (WDR, WEF…) – who is the safety belt?
• Some areas need urgent attention – how can science, business and policy have this conversation?
• Implications for business still piecemeal integrative analysis new science-business platforms for dialogue?
New partnershipsSee: http://www.futureearth.org/engagement-committee
New will to change direction??
We actually know what needs to be done…
Halt the rise in CO2 emissions as urgently as possible – stop burning fossil fuels into the atmosphere– keep ‘present day’ carbon in trees and the soil– go to the source: our everyday consumption and waste
Stop the huge release of environmentally active (harmful, synthetic) substances– wasting nutrients (N&P) is wasting money and energy too– implement the precautionary principle – the polluter pays principle always applies…
Minimize the footprint of our activities– assess the whole picture of resource use and transport– stop shifting the problem to other parts of the world (‘externalities’)– STOP killing life (the ecosystems we are part of)
~1700s First global climate data sets, early ‘system’ theory
~1800s Climate fundamentals identified (eg greenhouse effect of CO2).Global research coordination (eg IMO, expeditions).
Early 1900s Climate forcing explained (fossil fuel use, orbital changes). Investment in technology and global environmental research.
1950s Numerical modelling: feedbacks, atmospheric dynamics. First Earth observation from space.
1960s Rising CO2 concentration measured. Key climate concepts explained. First UN + science links.
1970s Space exploration and ‘Gaia’ – biosphere/atmosphere links. Growing environmentalism.
1980s Consolidation and strategic coordination: WCRP and IGBP (global science), IPCC (science/policy)
1990s Rio Conventions (notably CBD and UNFCCC), also Local Agenda 21. IHDP and Diversitas formed, join with IGBP and WCRP (ESSP).
2000s Strong science consensusGrowing social concern about climate changeGlobal change science programs responding
Weart 2008, Liverman et al. 2002 Cornell 2010, Uhrqvist 2014
A very partial timeline of global change science
