Sebastian Pisi, DKKV

Elbe flood 2002/2013: Lessons learned, changes in the decision making process and in the adopted risk mitigation measures

Bonn, 11th December 2014

KNOW4DRR: Decision making in disaster risk reduction across different levels

FOR INTERNAL USE ONLY

Sebastian Pisi: Lessons learned, changes in the decision making process and in the adopted risk mitigation measures

Table of Contents

BMBF-Project

A few impressions

Flood 2002 - A Focus Event

Risk Management Cycle & Decision Making Process

Lessons Learned

Conclusion

Sebastian Pisi: Lessons learned, changes in the decision making process and in the adopted risk mitigation measures

Overview - Examinations of the Flood Event 2013

Duration: Oct. 2013 to Feb. 2015

Head of Project: Prof. Dr. Annegret Thieken, University of Potsdam

Part 1: Potential and actual damage reduction through prevention and early warning

Part 2: Coping Capacity of German federal states and aid

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Sebastian Pisi: Lessons learned, changes in the decision making process and in the adopted risk mitigation measures

Flood in Germany 2013…

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Sebastian Pisi: Lessons learned, changes in the decision making process and in the adopted risk mitigation measures

…water as far as the eye can reach, being concerned but…

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Sebastian Pisi: Lessons learned, changes in the decision making process and in the adopted risk mitigation measures

…at least not alone…

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Sebastian Pisi: Lessons learned, changes in the decision making process and in the adopted risk mitigation measures

…and creative!

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Sebastian Pisi: Lessons learned, changes in the decision making process and in the adopted risk mitigation measures

Flood in August 2002: ,Focus event’

Extensive Case Study Analysis Identification of Deficits …Recommendations

Revision

o Flood Protection o EU-Flood Action Programme o Investments and improvements

at all levels

Research Programme

Horizon 2020

Sebastian Pisi: Lessons learned, changes in the decision making process and in the adopted risk mitigation measures

Source: All American Insurance Agency

Sebastian Pisi: Lessons learned, changes in the decision making process and in the adopted risk mitigation measures

August 2002 Record-breaking

24-hour rainfall: 312 mm

‚Nothing like this‘: Hazard processes

June 2013 Record-breaking

Soil saturation in May 2013

Source: CEDIM Forensic Disaster Analysis Group; revised in February 2014, pers. com. K. Schröter (GFZ)

S: Severity index acording to Uhlemann, Thieken, Merz (2010) – HESS 14: 1277–1295.

Identify

Evaluate

Treat

Monitor

Sebastian Pisi: Lessons learned, changes in the decision making process and in the adopted risk mitigation measures

August 2002 June 2013 Learning based on damages: YES, but EXPENSIVE

Impact indicator August 2002 June 2013

Fatalities 21 8

Financial losses 11600 million € 8158 million €

Governmental compensation fund 8000 million € 8000 million €

Identify

Evaluate

Treat

Monitor

Sebastian Pisi: Lessons learned, changes in the decision making process and in the adopted risk mitigation measures

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Identify

Evaluate

Treat

Monitor

Learning due to damages: YES, but EXPENSIVE

Sebastian Pisi: Lessons learned, changes in the decision making process and in the adopted risk mitigation measures

Progress:

• 22nd Dec. 2011

Identification of areas with high risk potential

• 22nd Dec. 2013

Risk and Hazard Maps

• 22nd Dec. 2015

Flood Management Plans

• Update every 6 years

Transfer to national law:

Federal Water Act

EU-Flood Action Programme (2007/60/EC)

Probability of Occurrence

• Flood with low probability (extreme)

• Flood with moderate probability (HQ100)

• Flood with high probability (HQ10/20)

Specific Data

• Flood plain

• Water depth

• Velocity

Potential negative results shown

in risk maps

Identify

Evaluate

Treat

Monitor

Sebastian Pisi: Lessons learned, changes in the decision making process and in the adopted risk mitigation measures

Warning and Reaction of Population

Source: www.hochwasserzentralen.de

After 2002 Improvement of warning and information: small percentage of population not being warned (25%...2013: 5%)

• Who does the warning address?

• Who can react? • Who does the appropriate thing?

Identify

Evaluate

Treat

Monitor

Sebastian Pisi: Lessons learned, changes in the decision making process and in the adopted risk mitigation measures

Analysis of Current Risk Maps • National server connecting to all federal information

• Hazard Maps in all federal states for HQ100 and HQ200

• No consistency in representaion of frequent floods

• Variety of research options for WebGIS applications – or not

Thüringen Nordrhein-Westfalen Schleswig-Holstein Sachsen

Sachsen-Anhalt Bayern Baden-Württemberg Hessen

Identify

Evaluate

Treat

Monitor

Sebastian Pisi: Lessons learned, changes in the decision making process and in the adopted risk mitigation measures

• Cooperation of aid agencies, public authorities and population a success

• New concepts for the interaction of aid agencies presented

• Implementation of key authorities (BBK/GMLZ)

• Regular training of stakeholders (LÜKEX)

• Schemes for controlling and quality criteria

Aid Agencies

Identify

Evaluate

Treat

Monitor

Sebastian Pisi: Lessons learned, changes in the decision making process and in the adopted risk mitigation measures

Conflicts and the Role of the Media

Identify

Evaluate

Treat

Monitor

Sebastian Pisi: Lessons learned, changes in the decision making process and in the adopted risk mitigation measures

Identify

Evaluate

Treat

Monitor

Sebastian Pisi: Lessons learned, changes in the decision making process and in the adopted risk mitigation measures

‚Preparation in private‘

• Information Aearch

• Mutual Aid/ Networks

• Adapted Use of Buildings

• Adapted Use of Interior

• Water Barriers

• Heating in Upper Floors

• Safeguarding of Oil Heatings

• Waterproofing of Buildings

• Insurance

• Preparation for Case of Emergency

Source: http://images.fejo.dk/hausbilder/0660/6387

Identify

Evaluate

Treat

Monitor

Sebastian Pisi: Lessons learned, changes in the decision making process and in the adopted risk mitigation measures

Improvements from 2002 to 2013

• Flood hazard and risk mapping

• Reinforced technical protection

• Strengthening of flood prevention by land use regulations

• Improved warning and response

• Higher acceptance and willingness to take responsibility

• Uncertainty more precise

• More coordination and communication

• Efforts in risk communication

• Sensitivity raised

Higher efficiency

To Do...

Do we supply enough retention areas and is maintenance of floodplains sufficient?

How to better link reconstruction and risk reduction?

Are maps and warning information comprehensible?

How to deal with new technologies and social media?

What about intangible and long-term effects?

Is there a shift of risk due to prioritisation of measures?

What is the political agenda up to?

New ways and perspectives?

Conclusion

Sebastian Pisi: Lessons learned, changes in the decision making process and in the adopted risk mitigation measures

DMP

Sebastian Pisi: Lessons learned, changes in the decision making process and in the adopted risk mitigation measures

Thank you very much!

Sebastian Pisi, German Comitee for Disaster Reduction

pisi@dkkv.org, +49-228-6191289