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Based on a paper by Dr. Don Levy on the Zone of Ambivalence.
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The Impacts of the Zone of Ambivalence: Considering the Impact of Ignoring the Measurement of
Apathy, Indecision and Lack of Information
Dr. Don LevyAshley KoningMay 13, 2011
Research InstituteResearch Institute
Polls Press
Public Politicians
Poll
Press
Politicians
Public Opinion Polling
Snapshot of Electorate
Political Push Polls
Candidates may have polls constructed in ways that “push” respondents to the position they prefer
Politicians Manipulating Press
Press Spinning Numbers
Uninformed/Uninvolved Public
The uninformed and uninvolved come to think that their participation is unnecessary, since the rest of the electorate seems to have already decided.
Alert and Knowledgeable Citizenry
in 1961, President Dwight D. Eisenhower averred that “only an alert and knowledgeable citizenry” could assure that “… security and liberty [might]… prosper together” in the United States.
The Opinion Makers
As Moore states, the most accurate portrayal of those who support or oppose an issue consists of those who truly care about an issue’s outcome.
Forced Choice Survey
With providing citizens only yes-or-no/either-or/this-or-that options, polls and press disguise an often centrist, undecided, or even apathetic public as an overly ardent and activist citizenry that appears to foster clearly defined opinions for each and every issue.
The reality of the monitorial, self-interested, uninformed citizen becomes lost in the limiting forced choice answers.
Forced Choice
Survey Model 1 Survey Model 2
Forced Choice 1
“Are you in favor or opposed to …?”
Example: “Are you in favor or opposed to putting a new state tax
on sugar sweetened beverages like soda?”
Rational Intensity Scale
“For each of the following, would you strongly support this becoming
law, somewhat support it, neither support nor oppose it, somewhat
oppose it, or strongly oppose this becoming law, or would you need
more information before you could say?”
Example: “For putting a new state tax on sugar sweetened beverages
like soda, would you strongly support this becoming law, somewhat
support it, neither support nor oppose it, somewhat oppose it, or
strongly oppose this becoming law, or would you need more
information before you could say?”
Emotional Intensity Scale
“For each of the following that you indicated you
supported/opposed, please tell me how upset you would be if
the law was not passed/passed. Would you be very upset,
somewhat upset, not very upset, or not upset at all?”
Example: “For putting a new state tax on sugar sweetened
beverages like soda, you indicated you supported it. Please tell
me how upset you would be if the law was not passed. Would
you be very upset, somewhat upset, not very upset, or not upset
at all?”
Forced Choice 2
“For each of the following that you indicated you neither strongly
supported nor strongly opposed, please tell if you had to vote RIGHT
NOW, would you vote in favor or to oppose each of the following …?”
Example: “For putting a new state tax on sugar sweetened beverages
like soda, you indicated you neither strongly supported nor strongly
opposed. Please tell if you had to vote RIGHT NOW, would you vote in
favor or to oppose putting a new state tax on sugar sweetened
beverages like soda?”
Emotional Intensity Scale
OPPOSED TO
DON’T KNOW
IN FAVOR
Ver
y u
pse
t
Som
ewh
at u
pse
t
No
t ve
ry u
pse
t
No
t at
all
up
set
Do
n’t
kn
ow
Do
n’t
kn
ow
No
t at
all
up
set
No
t ve
ry u
pse
t
Som
ewh
at u
pse
t
Ver
y U
pse
t
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Rational Intensity ScaleST
RO
NG
LY O
PP
OSE
SOMEWHAT OPPOSE NEITHER/NEED MORE INFO SOMEWHAT SUPPORT
STR
ON
GLY
SU
PP
OR
T
Op
po
sed
to
Do
n’t
kn
ow
In f
avo
r
Op
po
sed
to
Do
n’t
kn
ow
In f
avo
r
Op
po
sed
to
Do
n’t
kn
ow
In f
avo
r
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
NY Policy IssueOpposition
Favorability
Emotional Rational Forced
Choice
Putting a new state tax on sugar
sweetened beverages like soda.
Opposition
Extreme
51% 55% 73%
Favorability
Extreme
5% 14% 26%
Legalizing the use of medical
marijuana in New York State.
Opposition
Extreme
16% 19% 32%
Favorability
Extreme
16% 30% 66%
Allowing undocumented immigrants
the right to obtain a New York State
drivers license.
Opposition
Extreme
55% 55% 75%
Favorability
Extreme
5% 10% 24%
Banning all salt in restaurant
cooking in New York State.
Opposition
Extreme
41% 54% 85%
Favorability
Extreme
4% 7% 14%
Capping the rate of growth of
property taxes at no more than 4%.
Opposition
Extreme
5% 7% 17%
Favorability
Extreme
41% 47% 79%
Allowing supermarkets to sell wine.
Opposition
Extreme
10% 18% 31%
Favorability
Extreme
3% 27% 68%
Comparing Survey Methods
5
16
5 4
41
3
14
30
10 7
47
2726
66
24
14
79
68
Putting a new state
tax on sugar-
sweetened
beverages like
soda
Legalizing the use
of medical
marijuana in New
York State
Allowing
undocumented
immigrants the
right to obtain a
New York State
Drivers license
Banning all salt in
restaurant cooking
in New York State
Capping the rate
of growth of
property taxes at
no more than 4%
Allowing
supermarkets to
sell wine
NY State Policy Issue Favorability Extreme
Emotional Intensity Rational Intensity Forced Choice
51
16
55
41
510
55
19
55 54
7
18
73
32
75
85
17
31
Putting a new state
tax on sugar-
sweetened
beverages like
soda
Legalizing the use
of medical
marijuana in New
York State
Allowing
undocumented
immigrants the
right to obtain a
New York State
Drivers license
Banning all salt in
restaurant cooking
in New York State
Capping the rate
of growth of
property taxes at
no more than 4%
Allowing
supermarkets to
sell wine
NY State Policy Issue Opposition Extreme
Emotional Intensity Rational Intensity Forced Choice
17
28
18
26
19
54
12
1814
20
24
20
1 2 1 14
10
10
20
30
40
50
60
Putting a new state tax on sugar sweetened beverages like soda
Legalizing the use of medical marijuana in
New York State
Allowing undocumented
immigrants the right to obtain a New York
State drivers license
Banning all salt in restaurant cooking in
New York State
Capping the rate of growth of property
taxes at no more than 4%
Allowing supermarkets to sell wine
Pe
rce
nta
ge o
f P
eo
ple
Am
biv
ale
nt
to I
ssu
e
NY State Policy Issue Ambivalence
Emotional Intensity Scale Rational Intensity Scale Forced Choice
Declining Intensity of Forced Choice Surveys
Declining Intensity: Property Tax Cap
17
4
79
58
2 1 0
4
0
6 5
26
41
7
5
0 1
6 4
11
20
18
47
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Pe
rce
nta
ge
Capping the rate of growth of property taxes at no more than 4%
Forced Choice
Emotional Intensity Scale
Rational Intensity Scale
Opposition Favorability
Emotional Intensity Scale ZOA = 19%
Rational Intensity Scale ZOA = 24%
31
1
68
10 107
4
0 1 0
2023 22
3
18
7
02
6
1
7
21
28 27
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Pe
rce
nta
ge
Allowing supermarkets to sell wine
Forced Choice
Emotional Intensity Scale
Rational Intensity Scale
Opposition Favorability
Emotional Intensity Scale ZOA = 54%
Rational Intensity Scale ZOA = 20%
Declining Intensity: Wine in Supermarkets
Devoted Directives
Cautious
DirectivesFrequent Permissives/Ambivalents Cautious
DirectivesDevoted Directives
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
27%
37%
36%
Analyzing Directive and Permissive Opinions
Conclusions
• A completely informed and involved
electorate is ideal, but does not exist
• Forcing the public to approve or
disapprove on every question
misrepresents public opinion
• We should learn to appreciate
ambivalence and rather than
misrepresent it, endeavor to inform it
