The expansion of Higher Education in emerging countries:

the boom of distance education in Brazil and India

Bruno MorcheFederal University of Rio Grande do Sul - Brazil

UCL/ Institute of Education

Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel (CAPES) - Brazil

Introduction

Key trends in HE in emerging countries:

- General belief in the need to develop mass HE system: growing recognition of personal

and societal benefits of HE

- The idea of “catching-up” with developed countries

- Growing demand for HE (recent expansion/universalization of basic education)

- The Increase of private provision and funding (Market provision)

Question: What role is distance education playing in the expansion of Higher Education in

emerging countries?

Higher education expansion in the world

- From 1970 to 2012 growth of 499,88%.

- An acceleration from late 1990s to 2012.

- Worldwide student numbers is forecast to

attain 262 million by 2025. Nearly all of this

growth will be in the developing world, with

more than half in China and India alone.

World enrolments (million)

The expansion has ocurred mainly in emerging

countries...

Inversion in the proportion...

Proportion of enrolments in

the world

Emerging

countries

Developed

countries

The largest HE systems in the world

Number of enrolments of the five largest HE systems in the world (1999-2012)

Fonte: UNESCO, 2012.

China; 32,5 mi

India; 28,5 mi

United States; 20,9 mi

Russia; 7,9 mi

Brazil; 7,2 mi

0

5000000

10000000

15000000

20000000

25000000

30000000

35000000

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

China India United States Russia Brazil

Higher education enrolments in the world

Brazil and India: some facts

Population GDP GDP growth

forecast 2015

Nº of students

enrolled

India 1,210,193,422 $2.049 trillion +7.6% (1st) 28.5 Million

Brazil 202,768,562 $2.846 trillion -1.2% (54th) 7.2 Million

Distance Education in HE in India

India is witnessing some of the fastest rates of adoption for distance learning (Hannover, 2011; The Economist, 2010).

Enrolment in open and distance learning grew rapidly between 2006-07 and 2011-12, from 2.741M to 4.201M.

Apart from the Indira Gandhi National Open University (public), there are 13 State Open Universities (public) and 183

other Distance Education Institutions (DEIs) (public or private)

Enrolment in DEIs that includes at least 44 private institutions grew most rapidly over 10 per cent per year during that

period.

“vast potential in a country like India with millions of young aspirants eager to receive higher education and with

conventional universities and colleges simply not being in a position to accommodate them” (Commonwealth of

Learning, 2007)

2006/07 2010/11

Indira Gandhi National Open University 468,000 697,000

State Open Universities 777,000 1,080,000

Distance Education Institutions 1,496,000 2,424,000

Total 2,741,000 4,201,000

16.5% of HE

enrolmentsINDIASource: Indian Distance Education Council.

India and the demand-supply gap: towards

for-profit education?

Source: Planning Comission – Government of India.

Twelfth Five Year Plan (2012-2017)

Brazil’s HE system: two waves of expansion

In the 1990s more children accessed school and as a result demand for higher education grew.

The high cost of fully funding public institutions meant that private-sector expansion was the easiest option.

But with little government oversight and “inexperienced clients”, the sector’s reputation was low. (offering

worthless degrees).

1st wave

1960 55.9% public sector.1970 49.0% public sector. 1975 38.0% public sector.

2nd wave

1995 60.2% private sector2000 67.8% private sector.2010 75.0% private sector

Distance education in Brazil and for-profit institutions

Institution Private GroupGraduates

Nº of

courses Enrolments

UNIVERSIDADE NORTE DO PARANÁ Grupo Kroton + Anhanguera 30,809 19 254,893

UNIVERSIDADE ANHANGUERA - UNIDERP Grupo Kroton + Anhanguera 18,269 18 107,909

CENTRO UNIVERSITÁRIO INTERNACIONAL Grupo UNINTER 17,450 16 98,727

UNIVERSIDADE PAULISTA Private non-profit 7,076 15 87,803

CENTRO UNIVERSITÁRIO LEONARDO DA VINCI Grupo Kroton + Anhanguera 5,969 29 81,717

UNIVERSIDADE ESTÁCIO DE SÁ Grupo Estácio Participações 3,091 32 45,732

CENTRO UNIVERSITÁRIO UNISEB Grupo Estácio Participações 3,527 13 35,750

Total 86,191 142 712,531

Brazil 161,072 1,258 1,153,572

* Kroton_+Anhanguera is the largest

private educational group in the world

423.175712.531

507.004441.041

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2010 2013

Distance education enrolments in Brazil (2010-2013)

Largest private educational groups in

the world (Market Value - U$ bi)

Concern at stake: Quality X Quantity

““Quality [in education] is easy,” says Rodrigo Galindo, Kroton’s energetic young boss. “And

so is quantity. What’s difficult is combining the two.” The trick, he explains, is to abandon

“handcrafted” teaching methods for scalable ones: online course materials and tutors; star

teachers’ lessons broadcast by satellite; tightly specified franchise agreements with hundreds

of local teaching centres staffed by moderators.” (The Economist, July/2014)

Distance Education in Brazil and India

Brazil India

Allows for-profit institutions For-profit institutions are not

allowed

% of enrolments ~16% ~15-25% (it depends on statistic source)

Type of institution

predominant

Large private for-profit

universities with regional centres

and some courses in public

institutions

Large public open universities

(national and state) and private

non-profit HEI (huge growth)

Institution size Largest HEIs Largest HEIs

Areas Mainly applied social sciences

(eg business, management,

accounting)

Wide range of areas

Main concerns Quality / System assessment Quality / System assessment

Boosters: Growing demand and

technological spread

Still huge demand for HE and the “catching up” + Ubiquitous technological spread:

- Even with the currently expansion, HE access is still restrict: even in China (largest system in the world), India (3rd) and Brazil (5th).

- Gross enrolment rate is still low: To achieve a HE gross enrolment rate of the developed ones, thesecountries will need about over 100 million places.

o Sudden technological spread

- Number of internet users:

India (3rd in the world): 243M (1 year growth: 14% = ~30 million)

Brazil (5th): 107M

- Number of mobile phones:

India (2nd): 970 million (1,2bi)

Brasil (4th): 278 million (202M)

Main charecteristics of distance learning

in emerging countries

Diversification:

- Older students;

- Students who work 40 hours a week or more

- Poorer students;

A HE model of expansion?

Could we say we are going to see a model of expansion based on distance learning

for-profit instituitions (or maybe non-profit)?

Will the surging demand be met by [international] chains of for-profit HE providers

delivering skills & vocational degrees via distance education courses? and hence the

concern of Government is not as a funder/provider but as a regulator in terms of

consumer protection?

Sum-formula: Demand + Scalability/Massification + low cost = Big business?

Risks: Inequitable acess to HE; Poor quality and stratification; Public benefit of HE?

Thank you

Bruno MorcheFederal University of Rio Grande do Sul - Brazil

UCL/ Institute of Education

Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel (CAPES) – Brazil

Email: bruno.morche.14@ucl.ac.uk

Higher education enrolments around the

world