Josh Baron

Director, Academic Technology & eLearning

Marist College

Chair, Sakai Foundation Board of Directors

The Ed Tech Journey & a Future Driven by Disruptive Change

What is Disruptive Change?

Trivia Activity

You’ll have 15 seconds to tweet answer with hash tag: #CampusTech2010

Infamous Dates in the History of Disruptive Change

April 28, 2003

April 3, 2008Know why? Tweet answer with > #CampusTech2010

Biggest Disruption in Music Industry Since Phonograph!• April 28, 2003 – Apple launches iTunes• April 3, 2008 – Apple becomes largest

music retailer in the US– 50 million customers– 4 billion songs sold

• February 24, 2010 > 10 billion sold!

Disruptive Change!

What might education look like in a future filled with

disruptive change?

Presentation Overview

• The Past– The Digital Revolution: Where’s the Disruption?

• The Present– Emerging Technology Trends and Disruption

• The Future– Honey, I Lost My Job…Again!

THE DIGITAL REVOLUTION: WHERE’S THE DISRUPTION?

The Past

Data Transfer Speeds

1900’s > 28 bits per second

2000’s > 48,000,000,000 bits per second

Processing Power

• 1970’s > ~2500 transistors per CPU

• 2000’s > 1,000,000,000 transistors per CPU

Transistor Count and Moore's Law - 2008.svg by Wgsimon

Storage AdvancesApple Ile – 1983• Disks could hold 140,000 bits• RAM held 64,000 bits

Today – 2008• Disks hold

500,000,000,000 bits• RAM is up to

2,000,000,000 bits

Let’s review…• Through the digital revolution we’ve seen:

– Radical increase in the data transfer rates– Exponential growth in computer power– Massive increase in storage capacity– Significant drop in price and size of

computers• These changes have had a tremendous

impact on almost all aspects of our society

“High Tech” Hall in the 1960s

Typical “high tech” lecture hall in 1996

Why No Disruption?• We’ve been automating education…

– Transparencies-to-PowerPoint– Lectures-to-Podcasts

• Some disruptive trends have emerged…– Distance education and entry of for-profits– 1 in 4 students take at least 1 course online– UC system announcement

EMERGING TECHNOLOGY TRENDS AND DISRUPTION

The Present

Open Education Trends

Learning Technology Trends

Open Education Trends

• Open Course Content• Open Access Journals• Open Textbooks• Open Instructional Software

Open Course Content• High quality university-level course

materials, “free & openly” available– Access, share, remix without cost

• MIT’s OpenCourseWare (OCW)– Begin in 2002, now has 2000 courses– 98m visits/70m unique (1% of world pop.)– 78% of MIT’s faculty have published OCW

• Expanding beyond MIT• 176 institutions from 37

countries• 3,650 courses from 46

sources and 7 languages http://www.ocwconsortium.org

Open Access Journals• Addressing “knowledge divide”• 5,175 Journals• 417,681 articles (as of 7/14/10)

• No charge to institution or readers• Users can download, copy, distribute, print

and link to full text• Peer-review w/ editorial quality controls

Open Textbooks• Connexions (www.cnx.org)

– Based at Rice University, started in 2000– environment for collaboratively developing &

freely sharing textbook content– Concept of micro-contributions– 16,531 remixable “modules”– 1000+ total “collections”– Experts contribute for reasons other than $$

Open Textbooks

• Sustainability has been an issue• Commercial ecosystem is developing• Flat World Knowledge (Video)

– Free online, affordable offline– Open–licensed > Customizable– Frees faculty from pains of new editions

Open Instructional Software• Open Learning Initiative

– Based at Carnegie Mellon – Guided by learning theory– Embedded cognitive tutor

capabilities in software• Provide “scaffolding” much

like a human tutor

– Develop/refresh basic skills

Trends > Future Disruptions• Cost of educational content

dramatically reduced• Collapse of the traditional

publishing industry• Trends towards “best of breed” • Instructors freed to focus on

teaching, not content creation• Empowers “self-directed

learners” By Taro Taylor edit by Richard Bartz

Learning Technology Trends

• Open Learning Network• Electronic Portfolios• Semantic Web

Post-LMS Era and PLE’s• Personal Learning Environment

– Learner customized environment– Use Web 2.0 to integrate content

and connections– Self-directed/informal learning

• LMS > supports status quo teaching; teacher/course-centric

• PLE > open and participatory; learner-centric

• Pros/cons with both

“Open Learning Network”• Divergent or convergent?• Leverages open standards

– IMS Course Cartridge– IMS Learning Tool Interop.– OpenSocial API

• OLN > “mash up” between LMS and PLE

• Some things are private while others are open

By Jonathan Mott Asst. to the Academic VP - Academic Technology Brigham Young University

Open Learning Network

• Example > Sakai 3– Not an upgrade but a

new complementary product

– Learning Design Lenses– June 2011 Release– www.sakaiproject.org

Electronic Portfolios• ePortfolio use has tripled since 2003*

– 50%+ of US institutions using some form– Significant use internationally (Bologna)

• Growth drivers– Value of “reflection” in student-centered learning– Accountability (Spellings Commission)– Capture all facets of learning (curricular, co-

curricular, and extracurricular)

• Missing piece? – Credentialing Model* 2008 Campus Computing Survey

Semantic Web (Web 3.0)• Common data framework that will

allow machines to understand the meaning - or "semantics" - of data on the Web

• Example: Google doesn’t do well with “What was the weather in Boston when Obama was born?”

Semantic Web

• Wolfram Alpha is an early example– 10+ trillion pieces of data– 50,000+ types of algorithms & models– linguistic capabilities for 1000 domains

• This will allow learners to ask computers deeper questions and learn from their answers

Trends > Future Disruption• Empowering of self-directed and

informal learning• Enable documenting &

credentialing of outcomes from self-directed and informal learning

• Self-directed competes higher education

• Web becomes powerful learning tool for knowledge generation

By Taro Taylor edit by Richard Bartz

HONEY, I LOST MY JOB…AGAIN!The Future

Honey, I lost my job…again

• Obtained a BA and two MA’s• Marketing Exe for high tech start-ups• Laid off twice in 12 month period• Decided to change careers to pursue

dream of a gourmet food business• Problem > She knew nothing about it!

Engaged in Informal Learning

• Volunteered at Farm-to-Table• Worked with SCORE mentor

– Developed business plan

• Collaborated with local restaurant• Did a lot of research via the web• Blogged to reflect on experience• Networking via Facebook

What might have my wife’s experience look like in a future filled with disruptive change?

There was missing from this story?

US!

Think this will never happen?

It will go down in history as a turning point for the music industry. This is

landmark stuff. I can't overestimate it!

- Steve Jobs on iTunes, FortuneMay 12, 2003

“When you innovate, you've got to be prepared for everyone telling

you you're nuts.”- Larry Ellison, Founder and CEO, Oracle

Thank You!Josh.Baron@Marist.Edu

@JoshBaron (Twitter)