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Presentation by Bruce Campbell, Program Director CCAFS Ottawa, September 2011
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Ottawa, August 2011
The agricultural trilemma: feeding 9
billion while reducing the agricultural
footprintBruce Campbell, Program Director CCAFS
Outline• The three challenges• Accelerated and transformative adaptation
• Pro-poor mitigation
Challenge 1:Food security
Challenge 2: Adaptation
To 2090, taking 18 climate models
Four degree world
Thornton et al. (2010) ILRI/CCAFS
>20% loss5-20% lossNo change5-20% gain>20% gain
Length of growing period (%)
Length of growing season is likely to decline..
Optimistic
Baselin
e
Pessimisti
c
Optimistic
Baselin
e
Pessimisti
c
Optimistic
Baselin
e
Pessimisti
c0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Economic effect
Maize Rice Wheat
Food prices are likely to increase…%
pric
e in
crea
se 2
010-
2050
Nelson et al., 2010 IFPRI/CCAFS
Optimistic
Baselin
e
Pessimisti
c
Optimistic
Baselin
e
Pessimisti
c
Optimistic
Baselin
e
Pessimisti
c0
20
40
60
80
100
120Economic effect Climate effect
% p
rice
incr
ease
201
0-20
50Climate change will add greatly to price
increases…
Nelson et al., 2010 IFPRI/CCAFS
Maize Rice Wheat
Challenge 3: Reducing the agricultural footprint
Rockström et al. (2009); Bennett et al. (in prep.)
Global freshwater
useChange in land
use
Biodiversity loss
Phosphorous cycle
Nitrogen cycle
Ocean acidification
Climate change
Safe operating
space
Current status
Role of Agricultur
e
Meridian Institute 2011
Food Security
Fertiliser subsidies
Restoration of
degraded lands
Adaptation
Mitigation
1. Accelerated and transformative adaptation
Parks et al CSIRO
Australian wine industry
Relocation of grape production or wineries to cooler regions
Shifts to other cropsDiversification
Farms of the future
• Climate analogues
• Farmer networks• Policy framework
2. Pro-poor Mitigation
….. are there green development pathways that don’t compromise food security ?
Wassmann et al. (2010) IRRI/CCAFS
Growth in carbon market
• Monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV)
• Incentives and institutional models• Work on numerous technical
practices..
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