Trilemma Challenges for the People's Republic of China

8/9/2019 Trilemma Challenges for the People's Republic of China

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@HNO Ybreodi Z`pgr Vgrogs

Xrocgkk` Fl`ccgdigs abr tlgZgbpcg‟s ^gpuncof ba Flod`

K`s`lorb E`w`o `dhCo-I`di Cou

Db. 706Agnru`ry >:07

@so`d Hgvgcbpkgdt N`de


2/41

Xlg Ybreodi Z`pgr sgrogs os ` fbdtodu`tobd ba tlg abrkgrcy d`kgh Hosfussobd Z`pgr sgrogs5tlg dukngrodi ba tlg p`pgrs fbdtodugh wotlbut odtgrruptobd br fl`dig. @HNO‟s wbreodip`pgrs rgacgft odoto`c ohg`s bd ` tbpof `dh `rg pbstgh bdcodg abr hosfussobd. @HNO gdfburìgs

rg`hgrs tb pbst tlgor fbkkgdts bd tlg kòd pìg abr g`fl wbreodi p`pgr (iovgd od tlgfot`tobd ngcbw). Vbkg wbreodi p`pgrs k`y hgvgcbp odtb btlgr abrks ba puncof`tobd.

Vuiigstgh fot`tobd=

E`wò, K., `dh C.-I. Cou. >:07. Xrocgkk` Fl`ccgdigs abr tlg Zgbpcg‟s ^gpuncof ba Flod`. @HNO Ybreodi Z`pgr 706. Xbeyb= @so`d Hgvgcbpkgdt N`de Odstotutg. @vòc`ncg=lttp=//www.`hno.bri/wbreodi-p`pgr/>:07/:>/0:/1766.trocgkk`.fl`ccgdigs.prf/

Zcg`sg fbdt`ft tlg ùtlbrs abr odabrk`tobd `nbut tlos p`pgr.

Gkòc= ke`wòJpp.u-tbeyb.`f.mp, coi`di.couJ`dz.fbk

K`s`lorb E`wò os Zrbagssbr, Ir`hu`tg Vflbbc ba Zuncof Zbcofy, Wdovgrsoty ba Xbeyb.

Co-I`di Cou os Floga Gfbdbkost, Irg`tgr Flod`, @D] ^gsg`rfl, @ustr`co` `dh Dgw]g`c`dh N`deodi Irbup.

Xlg vogws gxprgssgh od tlos p`pgr `rg tlg vogws ba tlg ùtlbrs `dh hb dbt dgfgss`rocy

rgacgft tlg vogws br pbcofogs ba @HNO, @HN, ots Nb`rh ba Horgftbrs, br tlg ibvgrdkgdts tlgyrgprgsgdt. @HNO hbgs dbt iu`r`dtgg tlg `ffur`fy ba tlg h`t` odfcuhgh od tlos p`pgr `dh`ffgpts db rgspbdsonocoty abr `dy fbdsgqugdfgs ba tlgor usg. Xgrkodbcbiy usgh k`y dbtdgfgss`rocy ng fbdsostgdt wotl @HN baaofo`c tgrks.

Ybreodi p`pgrs `rg sunmgft tb abrk`c rgvosobd `dh fbrrgftobd ngabrg tlgy `rg aod`cozgh `dhfbdsohgrgh puncoslgh.

@so`d Hgvgcbpkgdt N`de OdstotutgE`sukoi`sgeo Nuochodi -7 E`sukoi`sgeo, Floybh`-euXbeyb 0::-1::


3/41

@HNO Ybreodi Z`pgr 706 E`wò `dh Cou

@nstr`ft

Xlos p`pgr aorst rgvogws rgfgdt hgvgcbpkgdts od gxfl`dig r`tg rgiokgs, f`pot`c `ffbudtcongr`coz`tobd, odtgrgst r`tg congr`coz`tobd, `dh kbdgt`ry pbcofykèodi od tlg Zgbpcg‟s ^gpuncofba Flod` (Z^F). Ot tlgd bnsgrvgs tl`t tlg Z^F‟s kbdgt`ry pbcofy ùtbdbky k`y l`vg nggdrghufgh wotl a`ccodi f`pot`c fbdtrbc gaagftovgdgss `dh ` roioh gxfl`dig rgiokg tl`t os stocc

toiltcy k`dìgh ìòdst tlg Wdotgh Vt`tgs (WV) hbcc`r. Xlos lypbtlgsos os odvgstoi`tghgkporof`ccy usodi nbtl tlg X`ycbr rucg `dh tlg KfF`ccuk-coeg rucg tb tgst wlgtlgr tlg Z^F‟skbdgy k`regt odtgrgst r`tg `dh/br qu`dtoty ba kbdgy suppcy `rg ngodi odfrg`sodicyodacugdfgh ny tlg WV odtgrgst r`tg br rgsgrvg `ffukuc`tobd. Xlg p`pgr fbdfcuhgs tl`t tlgrgos fbdsohgr`ncg gvohgdfg suiigstodi hokodoslodi kbdgt`ry pbcofy ùtbdbky od tlg Z^F. Xbrgiòd pbcofy ùtbdbky, tlg kbdgt`ry ùtlbroty dgghs tb sunst`dto`ccy odfrg`sg gxfl`digr`tg acgxonocoty ba tlg rgdkodno `s cbdi `s ot fbdtodugs tb pursug f`pot`c `ffbudt bpgdodi.

MGC Fc`ssoaof`tobd= G7>, G7


4/41


Fbdtgdts

0. Odtrbhuftobd ................................................................................................................ 6

>.

Xlg Xrocgkk` Lypbtlgsos od Odtgrd`tobd`c Aod`dfg .................................................... 8

6.

Gxfl`dig ^`tg Zbcofy `dh ^`tg Acgxonocoty ................................................................. 1

6.0 ^gdkodno Gxfl`dig ^`tg Ngl`vobr sodfg >::7 ............................................. 1 6.>

Gxfl`dig ^`tg Zbcofy àtgr tlg >::7 Hg-pgiiodi .......................................... <

8.

Gaagftovgdgss ba F`pot`c Fbdtrbcs ............................................................................. 00

8.0 ^gdkodno Odtgrd`tobd`coz`tobd `dh ôsodi @rnotrìg Bppbrtudotogs ................ 00 8.>

Kg`surodi F`pot`c Fbdtrbc Gaagftovgdgss ...................................................... 06

8.6

Hgfcododi F`pot`c Fbdtrbc Gaagftovgdgss ........................................................ 01

7. Kbdgt`ry Zbcofy Fl`ccgdigs od tlg Zgbpcg‟s ^gpuncof ba Flod` ................................ 0

Vprg`h ba Vl`hbw N`deodi @ftovotogs ........................................................... >:

7.6

ôsodi Voids ba Zbcofy Odgaagftovgdgss .......................................................... >0

1.

Gkporof`c Gvohgdfg bd Hokodoslodi Kbdgt`ry Zbcofy @utbdbky od tlg Zgbpcg‟s^gpuncof ba Flod` .................................................................................................... >6

1.0

Kbdgt`ry Zbcofy Ar`kgwbre ba tlg Zgbpcg‟s ^gpuncof ba Flod`.................... >8

1.>

Gkporof`c Kbhgcs abr Xgstodi Kbdgt`ry Zbcofy @utbdbky ............................. >7

1.6

Xgstodi Kbdgt`ry Zbcofy @utbdbky wotl tlg Odtgrgst ^`tg `s ` ZbcofyOdstrukgdt .................................................................................................... >9

1.8

Xgstodi Zbcofy @utbdbky wotl Kbdgt`ry @iirgi`tgs `s ` Zbcofy Odstrukgdt 6:

9.

Zbcofy Okpcof`tobds ................................................................................................... 66

9.0

Irg`tgr Gxfl`dig ^`tg Acgxonocoty ................................................................ 68

9.>

@ Vlbrt-tgrk Zbcofy Odtgrgst ^`tg abr tlg Zgbpcg‟s ^gpuncof ba Flod`........... 68

9.6

K`regt Odar`strufturgs .................................................................................. 67


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0. ODX^BHWFXOBD

Xlg Zgbpcg‟s ^gpuncof ba Flod` (Z^F) os a`fodi trocgkk` fl`ccgdigs `s ot fbdtodugs tbcongr`cozg ots f`pot`c `ffbudt. Xlg trocgkk` lypbtlgsos fcòks tl`t ` fbudtry‟s kbdgt`ryùtlbroty f`ddbt `flogvg gxfl`dig r`tg st`nocoty, aod`dfo`c k`regt (br f`pot`c `ffbudt)bpgddgss, `dh kbdgt`ry pbcofy ùtbdbky `t tlg s`kg tokg. 0 Xlus, `s aod`dfo`c k`regtbpgddgss l`s odfrg`sgh bvgr tokg od tlg Z^F, ots kbdgt`ry ùtlbroty kust flbbsgirg`tgr gxfl`dig r`tg acgxonocoty tb rgtòd ` loil hgirgg ba kbdgt`ry pbcofy ùtbdbky.

Xlg Z^F l`s nggd pursuodi ` pbcofy ba ir`hu`ccy bpgdodi ots aod`dfo`c k`regts. Vodfgtlg 0?::7. Ot ngi`d tb gdiodggr furrgdfy `pprgfo`tobd ìòdst tlg WV hbcc`r ny sloatoditb ` fr`wcodi-pgi rgiokg, tlus `ccbwodi ` fgrtòd hgirgg ba gxfl`dig r`tg acgxonocoty. @ctlbuil tlg ùtlbroty tgkpbr`rocy rgstbrgh ` hbcc`r-pgi rgiokg od @uiust >:::0:, ot bdfg ìòd `hbptgh ` fr`wcodi-pgi-coeg rgiokg od Mudg >:0:. Od igdgr`c, tlghgirgg ba gxfl`dig r`tg acgxonocoty l`s ir`hu`ccy odfrg`sgh bvgr tokg nut rgkòds loilcy

cokotgh.Xlos p`pgr `riugs tl`t wlocg tlg Z^F‟s aod`dfo`c k`regts l`vg ngfbkg odfrg`sodicyodtgir`tgh wotl gxtgrd`c k`regts, p`rtofuc`rcy tlbsg od Lbdi Ebdi, Flod`, tlg hgirgg ba^KN gxfl`dig r`tg acgxonocoty l`s dbt rosgd kufl, `dh tlg fbknod`tobd ba irg`tgrbpgddgss ba ots aod`dfo`c k`regts `dh c`fe ba suaaofogdt gxfl`dig r`tg acgxonocoty l`sfbdstròdgh tlg `nocoty ba tlg kbdgt`ry ùtlbroty tb pursug ùtbdbkbus kbdgt`rypbcofy.

Xlg bri`doz`tobd ba tlg p`pgr os `s abccbws. Vgftobd > rgvogws tlg trocgkk` lypbtlgsosod odtgrd`tobd`c aod`dfg, wlofl prbvohgs tlg tlgbrgtof`c abudh`tobd abr tlg `d`cysos ba tlgp`pgr. Vgftobd 6 hosfussgs tlg gvbcutobd ba tlg Z^F‟s gxfl`dig r`tg rgiokg `dh tlghgirgg ba ^KN gxfl`dig r`tg acgxonocoty. Vgftobd 8 gx`kodgs tlg p`fg `dh gxtgdt ba

aod`dfo`c k`regt bpgdodi (br f`pot`c `ffbudt congr`coz`tobd) od tlg Z^F `dh `riugs tl`tots aod`dfo`c k`regts l`vg nggd odfrg`sodicy odtgir`tgh wotl tlg Lbdi Ebdi, Flod`k`regts hgspotg tlg gxostodi f`pot`c fbdtrbcs. Vgftobd 7 prbvohgs n`feirbudhodabrk`tobd bd tlg hosfussobd ba kbdgt`ry pbcofy gaagftovgdgss. Vgftobd 1 fbdhuftsgfbdbkgtrof `d`cysos tb ohgdtoay tlg kbdgt`ry ùtlbroty‟s pbcofy rucg `dh ots fl`digsbvgr tokg `dh aodhs tl`t tlg Z^F ùtlbroty‟s `nocoty tb sgt ots ùtbdbkbus kbdgt`ry

0 Od tlg Z^F, kbdgt`ry pbcofy os c`rigcy hgfohgh ny tlg ibvgrdkgdt (tlg Vt`tg Fbudfoc `dh tlg gxgfutovg

nr`dfl), wlocg ots fgdtr`c n`de‘tlg Zgbpcg's N`de ba Flod` (ZNbF)‘sgrvgs `s ` pbcofy okpcgkgdt`tobdìgdfy r`tlgr tl`d ` kòd pbcofy hgfosobd kègr. Xb rgacgft tlos rg`coty, tlos p`pgr usgs tlg tgrk–kbdgt`ry ùtlbroty‛ tb rgagr tb ` kòd kbdgt`ry pbcofy hgfosobd kègr. Xlg p`pgr `csb usgs tlg tgrk

kbdgt`ry pbcofy –ùtbdbky‛ r`tlgr tl`d –odhgpgdhgdfg‛ tb `vboh pbssoncg fbdausobd wotl tlg ossug bapbcotof`c `dh/br bpgr`tobd`c odhgpgdhgdfg ba ` fgdtr`c n`de.

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6/41


pbcofy l`s nggd l`kpgrgh sodfg tlg butnrgè ba tlg IAF. Vgftobd 9 baagrs sbkg pbcofyokpcof`tobds. Vgftobd < fbdfcuhgs tlg p`pgr.

>. XLG XÔCGKK@ L_ZBXLGVOV OD ODXG^D@XOBD@CAOD@DFG

@flogvodi dbdodac`tobd`ry, st`ncg gfbdbkof irbwtl os bdg ba tlg kbst okpbrt`dt pbcofybnmgftovgs abr kbdgt`ry ùtlbrotogs, p`rtofuc`rcy fgdtr`c n`des, od tlg wbrch. K`dyùtlbrotogs aodh ot hgsor`ncg tb l`vg st`ncg br gvgd aoxgh gxfl`dig r`tgs, `s furrgdfyst`nocoty f`d lgcp `flogvg profg st`nocoty ny gst`ncoslodi odac`tobd `dflbrs `dh/brrghufodi k`frbgfbdbkof `dh aod`dfo`c vbc`tocoty. Gxfl`dig r`tg st`nocoty f`d `csb abstgrodtgrd`tobd`c tr`hg `dh odvgstkgdt ny cbwgrodi gxfl`dig r`tg udfgrtòdty `dh furrgdfyrose prgkouks.

K`dy ùtlbrotogs `csb aodh ot usgauc tb l`vg bpgd aod`dfo`c k`regts `s tlgy `ccbwfbudtrogs tb hovgrsoay gfbdbkof `dh aod`dfo`c roses `dh skbbtl fbdsukptobd,odvgstkgdt, `dh/br butput bvgr tokg. Aod`dfo`c k`regt bpgddgss gdl`dfgs tlggaaofogdfy ba aod`dfo`c odtgrkgho`tobd `dh s`vodi `dh odvgstkgdt hgfosobds balbusglbchs `dh fbrpbr`tobds.

Aod`ccy, k`dy ùtlbrotogs aodh ot loilcy `ttr`ftovg tb rgtòd kbdgt`ry pbcofy ùtbdbky,tl`t os, tlg `nocoty tb sgt `dh okpcgkgdt kbdgt`ry pbcofy tb baasgt btlgr fbudtrogs‟kbdgt`ry slbfes `dh kbdgt`ry pbcofy fl`digs wotlbut ngodi fbdstròdgh ny tlgorflbofg ba gxfl`dig r`tg rgiokg. Kbdgt`ry pbcofy ùtbdbky soidoaof`dtcy lgcpsfbdtronutg tb gfbdbkof st`nocoz`tobd od tlg sgdsg ba `flogvodi cbw odac`tobd `dh st`ncggfbdbkof irbwtl.

Fbdfgptu`ccy, loilgr cgvgcs ba gxfl`dig r`tg st`nocoty, aod`dfo`c k`regt bpgddgss, `dh

kbdgt`ry pbcofy ùtbdbky wbuch `cc ng usgauc `dh `ttr`ftovg abr `dy kbdgt`ry ùtlbroty.Nut db ùtlbroty f`d rgtòd `cc tlrgg `t `dy bdg tokg. Xlos os tlg audh`kgdt`clypbtlgsos‘tlg –okpbssoncg trodoty‛ br tlg –trocgkk`‛‘tl`t hbkod`tgs kbdgt`rypbcofykèodi od `dy bpgd gfbdbky (Kudhgcc 0?16). Xlg Z^F os db gxfgptobd.

Xlg trocgkk` os batgd occustr`tgh usodi ` tro`dicg `s slbwd od Aoiurg 0, wotl tlg tlrggsohgs rgprgsgdtodi tlg tlrgg hgsor`ncg prbpgrtogs= gxfl`dig r`tg st`nocoty, aod`dfo`ck`regt bpgddgss, `dh kbdgt`ry pbcofy ùtbdbky (Otb `dh E`wò >:08). Ylocg ot ospbssoncg tb `flogvg hgsorgh cgvgcs ba twb but ba tlg tlrgg `ttronutgs, ot os okpbssoncg tb`flogvg hgsorgh cgvgcs ba `cc tlrgg. Abr gx`kpcg, ` fbudtry‟s ùtlbroty k`y flbbsg tbst`dh `t bdg ba tlg tlrgg fbrdgrs od tlg tro`dicg, nut ot os okpbssoncg tb `flogvg `cc tlrggsokuct`dgbuscy. @s bdcy twb but ba tlrgg f`d ng `flogvgh tb tlgor aucc gxtgdt (br `dygxtgdt), wg batgd bnsgrvg tlrgg hostodftovg pbcofy fbknod`tobds= (o) ` aoxgh gxfl`digr`tg rgiokg `dh aucc kbdgt`ry pbcofy ùtbdbky (wotl fcbsgh aod`dfo`c k`regts, `s od tlgf`sg ba tlg cbwgr cgat-l`dh fbrdgr‘rgprgsgdtodi, abr gx`kpcg, tlg Nrgttbd Ybbhssystgk `dh tlg Z^F od tlg prg-0??:s)5 (oo) ` aoxgh gxfl`dig r`tg rgiokg `dh auccy bpgdaod`dfo`c k`regts (wlocg iovodi up kbdgt`ry pbcofy ùtbdbky, `s od tlg f`sg ba tlgcbwgr roilt-l`dh fbrdgr‘rgprgsgdtodi, abr gx`kpcg, tlg ibch st`dh`rh systgk, `furrgdfy nb`rh systgk sokoc`r tb Lbdi Ebdi, Flod` `dh sk`cc gurbzbdg fbudtrogs)5`dh (ooo) auccy bpgd aod`dfo`c k`regts `dh aucc kbdgt`ry pbcofy ùtbdbky (wlocg `hbptodi` arggcy acgxoncg gxfl`dig r`tg rgiokg `s od tlg f`sg ba tlg tbp fbrdgr‘rgprgsgdtodi abrgx`kpcg, @ustr`co`, F`d`h`, M`p`d, `dh tlg Wdotgh Eodihbk).

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7/41


Aoiurg 0= Xlg Xrocgkk` Xro`dicg

Z^F ; Zgbpcg‟s ̂ gpuncof ba Flod`.

Vburfg= Otb `dh E`wò (>:08).

Ylocg lostbry os aucc ba gposbhgs ba systgks tl`t rgprgsgdt sufl –fbrdgr sbcutobds,‛

kbdgt`ry ùtlbrotogs f`d `csb `hbpt `d odtgrkgho`tg fbknod`tobd ba tlg tlrggprbpgrtogs, tl`t os, ` –hbt‛ odsohg tlg tro`dicg. Xlgrg `rg `d odaodotg dukngr ba suflfbknod`tobds. Xlg rg`sbd ` kbdgt`ry ùtlbroty k`y sgcgft sufl ` hbt os tl`t ot k`ywosl tb fbkprbkosg od sgcgftodi tlg cgvgc ba `ttòdkgdt ba g`fl ba tlg tlrgg prbpgrtogs.Abr gx`kpcg, ` kbdgt`ry ùtlbroty k`y wosl tb l`vg sbkg gxfl`dig r`tg st`nocoty,sbkg aod`dfo`c k`regt bpgddgss, `dh sbkg kbdgt`ry pbcofy ùtbdbky. Br, oa `kbdgt`ry ùtlbroty woslgs tb rgtòd aucc kbdgt`ry pbcofy ùtbdbky, ot dgghs tb stroeg ìbbh n`c`dfg ngtwggd sbkg gxfl`dig r`tg st`nocoty (br acgxonocoty) `dh sbkg aod`dfo`ck`regt bpgddgss (br sbkg f`pot`c fbdtrbcs). Od k`dy hgvgcbpodi fbudtrogs, kbdgt`ryùtlbrotogs batgd cokot aod`dfo`c k`regt bpgddgss `s ot wbuch kèg tlg gfbdbkyvucdgr`ncg tb gxtgrd`c aod`dfo`c slbfes `dh f`pot`c acbw vbc`tocoty, frg`todi nbbk `dhnust fyfcgs `dh, pbtgdto`ccy, aod`dfo`c frosgs.

Xlg Z^F‟s kbdgt`ry ùtlbroty usgh tb pgi tlg ^KN gxfl`dig r`tg tb tlg WV hbcc`rwlocg kòdtòdodi toilt f`pot`c fbdtrbcs (tlg cgat fbrdgr ba tlg tro`dicg od Aoiurg 0). Xlosgd`ncgh tlg ùtlbroty tb rgtòd kbdgt`ry pbcofy ùtbdbky. Lbwgvgr, `s ot ngi`d tbir`hu`ccy bpgd ots aod`dfo`c k`regts bvgr tokg, ots pbsotobd od tlg tro`dicg ba Aoiurg 0st`rtgh tb sloat arbk tlg cgat fbrdgr tbw`rh tlg sohg ba aod`dfo`c k`regt bpgddgss. Oa tlgùtlbroty fbdtodugs tb kòdtòd gxfl`dig r`tg st`nocoty, tlos sloat wocc tèg pc`fglbrozbdt`ccy `cbdi tlg nbttbk ba tlg tro`dicg, tlus fbkprbkosodi kbdgt`ry pbcofyùtbdbky. Bd tlg btlgr l`dh, oa tlg Z^F ùtlbroty woslgs tb kòdtòd kbdgt`ry pbcofyùtbdbky, tlg sloat wocc tèg pc`fg upw`rh `cbdi tlg cgat sohg, tlus `ccbwodi irg`tgrgxfl`dig r`tg acgxonocoty.

Xlg flbofg ba gxfl`dig r`tg rgiokg tlgrgabrg kust ng k`hg od tlg fbdtgxt ba tlgtrocgkk` lypbtlgsos, tl`t os, od fbdmudftobd wotl tlg flbofgs bd kbdgt`ry pbcofy

Gxfl`dig r`tg st`nocoty

Arggcy acgxoncg gxfl`dig r`tgwotl auccy bpgd aod`dfo`c k`regts

(@ustr`co`, F`d`h`, M`p`d, Wdotgh Eodihbk, gtf)

Aoxgh gxfl`dig r`tgwotl auccy bpgd aod`dfo`c k`regts

(ibch st`dh`rh5 Lbdi Ebdi,Flod`5 sk`cc gurbzbdg

gfbdbkogs, gtf)

Aoxgh gxfl`dig r`tgwotl auccy fcbsgh aod`dfo`c k`regts

(Nrgttbd Ybbhs, tlg Z^F od tlgprg-0??:s, gtf)

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8/41


ùtbdbky `dh aod`dfo`c k`regt bpgddgss. Abr ` c`rig gfbdbky coeg tlg Z^F,kòdtòdodi kbdgt`ry pbcofy ùtbdbky os `d okpbrt`dt rgquorgkgdt abr gaagftovgk`frbgfbdbkof k`dìgkgdt. Vb, `s aod`dfo`c k`regt (br f`pot`c `ffbudt) bpgddgssodfrg`sgs bvgr tokg, tlg ùtlbroty dgghs tb flbbsg irg`tgr gxfl`dig r`tg acgxonocoty tbrgtòd ` suaaofogdtcy loil hgirgg ba kbdgt`ry pbcofy ùtbdbky.

6. G\FL@DIG ^@XG ZBCOF_ @DH ^@XG ACG\ONOCOX_

6.0 ^gdkodno Gxfl`dig ^`tg Ngl`vobr sodfg >::7

Bd >0 Mucy >::7, tlg Z^F ùtlbroty hg-pgiigh `dh rgv`cugh tlg ^KN gxfl`dig r`tgìòdst tlg WV hbcc`r ny >.0%, arbk FD_< tb FD_

Xlg dgw ^KN gxfl`dig r`tg rgiokg i`vg tlg ùtlbroty ` dgw pbcofy tbbc tb k`dìg otsgfbdbky. Xlg ùtlbroty `ddbudfgh ` hòcy rgagrgdfg tr`hodi spbt r`tg, f`ccgh tlgfgdtr`c p`roty r`tg (FZ^), abr tlg ^KN tb tr`hg ìòdst tlg WV hbcc`r. Xlg Z^Fcùdflgh ` stg`hy `pprgfo`tobd okkgho`tgcy abccbwodi tlg ^KN rgv`cu`tobd od Mucy>::7. Wdtoc M`du`ry >::1, tlg ùtlbroty wbuch sgt tlg FZ^ abr tlg dgxt tr`hodi h`y `ttlg prgvobus tr`hodi h`y‟s k`regt fcbsg. Od M`du`ry >::1, ` dgw profodi kgfl`doskw`s odtrbhufgh tb sgt tlg FZ^ usodi ` wgoiltgh `vgrìg sflgkg.6 Furrgdfy wgoiltswgrg hgtgrkodgh ny tlg Flod` Abrgoid Gxfl`dig Xr`hodi Vystgk `ffbrhodi tb tlgprgvobus h`y‟s tr`ds`ftobd vbcukgs ba odhovohu`c k`regt p`rtofop`dts. Od `hhotobd, btlgr

odhof`tbrs sufl `s qubtgh profgs arbk tlg ùtbk`tof profg k`tflodi systgk fbuch ngusgh od prodfopcg `s ` rgagrgdfg. Lbwgvgr, sufl odabrk`tobd w`s batgd dbt `vòc`ncg odrg`c tokg. Xlus, ot w`s hoaaofuct abr tlg k`regt tb hgtgrkodg lbw ` hòcy FZ^ w`s sgt`dh wlgtlgr ot wbuch ng sunmgft tb v`robus gxtgrd`c pbcotof`c prgssurgs `dh odtgrd`cgfbdbkof bnmgftovgs (Cou `dh Zùwgcs >:0>).

Xlg stg`hy `pprgfo`tobd ba tlg ^KN ìòdst tlg WV hbcc`r w`s tgkpbr`rocy l`ctghtbw`rh tlg gdh ba Mucy >::< wotl tlg gruptobd ba tlg IAF. Xlg pgi c`stgh abr `ckbst >yg`rs udtoc Mudg >:0: `t ` r`tg ba FD_1.:0>, ^KN horgft tr`hodi l`snggd `ccbwgh abr tlg ygd, @ustr`co`d hbcc`r, Dgw ]g`c`dh hbcc`r, pbudh stgrcodi, gurb,`dh Ebrg`d wbd. @s ` rgsuct, Vl`dilò k`regt coquohoty abr tlgsg furrgdfogs l`s

> Od M`du`ry 0??8, tlg ^KN w`s hgv`cugh arbk FD_7.67 tb FD_< pgr WV hbcc`r, àtgr wlofl tlg r`tg

st`ygh `t tlg s`kg cgvgc abr kbrg tl`d 0: yg`rs.6 Xlg dgw FZ^ l`h tlrgg hostodft ag`turgs= (o) bvgr-tlg-fbudtgr (BXF) tr`hodi w`s odtrbhufgh `s tlg kòd

abrk ba furrgdfy tr`hodi5 (oo) kbrg FZ^ pòrs ba tlg ^KN ìòdst tlg WV hbcc`r, tlg gurb, tlg ygd, `dh

tlg Lbdi Ebdi hbcc`r wgrg `ddbudfgh `t ?=07 `.k. Ngomodi tokg ba g`fl nusodgss h`y5 `dh (ooo) tlg FZ^w`s f`cfuc`tgh usodi ` wgoiltgh `vgrìg n`sgh bd tr`hodi vbcukg.

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9/41


ngfbkg ` a`ftbr àagftodi tlgsg furrgdfogs‟ bdslbrg r`tgs ìòdst tlg ^KN, od `hhotobdtb tlgor k`regt frbss r`tgs f`cfuc`tgh ìòdst tlg WV hbcc`r.

Xlg ^KN tr`hodi n`dh vos-ê-vos tlg WV hbcc`r w`s odoto`ccy sgt `t ` toiltcy fbdtrbccghr`dig ba °:.6%, wlofl w`s c`tgr wohgdgh tb °:.7% od K`y >::9, °0% od @proc >:0>,

`dh tlgd tb °>% od K`rfl >:08. Odhggh, tlg ^KN‟s gxfl`dig r`tg acgxonocoty l`sodfrg`sgh prbirgssovgcy wotl `d gdc`righ tr`hodi n`dh bvgr tokg (Aoiurg >).

Aoiurg >= Xlg ^gdkodno Gxfl`dig ^`tg wotl ` Yohgdodi N`dh

Vburfg= Ncbbkngri.

@ctlbuil tlg ^KN gxfl`dig r`tg n`dh l`s nggd wohgdgh bvgr tokg, ^KN vbc`tocoty l`s

nggd cokotgh od fbkp`rosbd tb tlg vbc`tocoty ba btlgr arggcy acb`todi furrgdfogs sufl `stlg gurb, ygd, `dh @ustr`co`d hbcc`r. Wsodi `d bptobd-n`sgh furrgdfy vbc`tocoty kg`surg,Aoiurg 6 slbws tl`t 0-kbdtl `t-tlg-kbdgy okpcogh vbc`tocoty ba tlg gurb, ygd, @ustr`co`dhbcc`r, `dh Dgw ]g`c`dh hbcc`r acuftu`tgh `t `d `vgrìg ba 0:%‖>:% hurodi tlg IAFpgrobh ba Vgptgkngr >:::0:. @atgrw`rh, tlg `vgrìg vbc`tocoty ba tlgsgfurrgdfogs stocc acuftu`tgh `t `rbudh 0:%. Od fbdtr`st, tlg bptobd profg okpcogh vbc`tocotyba tlg ^KN rg`flgh bdcy 7% wotl tlg gruptobd ba tlg IAF `dh l`s sodfg sgttcgh hbwdtb cgss tl`d >%. Xlus, ^KN gxfl`dig r`tg vbc`tocoty l`s rgkòdgh cokotgh.

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Ygè sohg

Vtrbdi sohg

9


10/41


Aoiurg 6= Bptobd Zrofg Okpcogh Qbc`tocoty ba K`mbr Furrgdfogs `dh tlg ^gdkodno

(%)

@WH ; @ustr`co`d hbcc`r, FD_ ; rgdkodno, GW^ ; gurb, MZ_ ; ygd, D]H ; Dgw ]g`c`dh hbcc`r, WVH ; WVhbcc`r.

Dbtg= Xlg fl`rt hospc`ys tlg 0-kbdtl ̀ t-tlg-kbdgy okpcogh vbc`tocoty ba tlg v`robus furrgdfogs.

Vburfg= Ncbbkngri.

6.> Gxfl`dig ^`tg Zbcofy àtgr tlg >::7 Hg-pgiiodi

@atgr tlg ^KN‟s gxot arbk tlg hbcc`r pgi, ots gxfl`dig r`tg w`s suppbsgh tb rgagrgdfg` n`segt ba furrgdfogs, wotl ots gxfl`dig r`tg rgabrk str`tgiy ngodi tb tèg `d`pprb`fl k`regh ny –sgca-odoto`tovg, fbdtrbcc`nocoty, `dh ir`hu`cosk‛ tb okprbvg tlg ^KNgxfl`dig r`tg abrk`tobd kgfl`dosk (ZNbF >::?).

Ylgtlgr tlg ^KN l`s `ftu`ccy nggd rgagrgdfgh tb ` n`segt ba furrgdfogs f`d nggx`kodgh gkporof`ccy usodi twb `pprb`flgs. Bdg os tb fbdstruft ` furrgdfy n`segt tl`trgacgfts gdbuil ba tlg Z^F‟s tr`hg wotl tlg rgst ba tlg wbrch `dh sgg wlgtlgr tlg ^KNgxfl`dig r`tg l`s `ftu`ccy abccbwgh tlg v`cu`tobd hgrovgh arbk tlos n`segt bafurrgdfogs. Xlg btlgr `pprb`fl os tb usg tlg Ar`degc `dh Ygo (0??8) kbhgc tbgfbdbkgtrof`ccy ohgdtoay k`mbr odtgrd`tobd`c furrgdfogs `dh gstok`tg tlgor wgoilts od `d^KN furrgdfy n`segt.

N`segt ba ` c`rig dukngr ba furrgdfogs2Aorst, usodi 00 furrgdfogs tl`t kèg up 9:% ba tlg Z^F‟s tr`hg wotl tlg rgst ba tlgwbrch, wg fbdstruftgh ` furrgdfy n`segt a br tlg ^KN `dh gxprgssgh ot `s `d okpcogh^KN gxfl`dig r`tg ìòdst tlg WV hbcc`r.8 Xlg n`segt-n`sgh ^KN r`tg os hgpoftgh odAoiurg 8 tbigtlgr wotl tlg k`regt ^KN spbt r`tg ìòdst tlg WV hbcc`r.

8 Xlg kgtlbhbcbiy fcbsgcy abccbws tlg usu`c f`cfuc`tobd ba ` dbkod`c gaagftovg gxfl`dig r`tg (DGG^)‘tl`t

os, fbdstruftodi ` igbkgtrof `vgrìg ba tlg 00 furrgdfogs‟ gxfl`dig r`tgs ìòdst tlg WV hbcc`r `dhtlgd gxprgssodi tlg v`cug ba tlos furrgdfy n`segt `s `d gxfl`dig r`tg ìòdst tlg WV hbcc`r r`tlgr tl`d`s `d odhgx. Xlg furrgdfy n`segt `ssoids c`rig wgoilts tb tlg WV hbcc`r (68.>%), gurb (>>.7%),M`p`dgsg ygd (08.?%), `dh Ebrg`d wbd (0:.>%), abccbwgh ny tlg Vodi`pbrg hbcc`r, pbudh stgrcodi,

K`c`yso`d rodiiot, @ustr`co`d hbcc`r, Xlò n`lt, F`d`ho`d hbcc`r, `dh ûsso`d Aghgr`tobd runcg, wotl tlgorwgoilts r`diodi arbk >% tb 6%.

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GW^ FD_ MZ_ @WH D]H

Vl`hgh `rg`s hgdbtg tlgpgrobhs ba ` FD_/WVH pgi


11/41


12/41


X`ncg 0= Fl`digs od Bnsgrvgh Gxfl`dig ^`tg ^giokgs abr tlg ^gdkodno

Gstok`tobd Zgrobh WV Hbcc`r Gurb _gd Zbudh Vtgrcodi ^-squ`rgh

Zbst-@AF pgrobh(6 M`du`ry >:::‖6: Mudg >::7)

:.???***(:.:::)

:.:::(:.:::)

:.:::(:.:::)

-:.:::(:.:::)

:.???

Zrg-Cglk`d pgrobh(>0 Mucy >::7‖>0 Mucy >:::::0:)

:.?9:***(:.::1)

:.:>6***(:.:::0:‖60 K`rfl >:08)

:.?8:***(:.::(:.::::7 ^KN gxfl`dig r`tg rgiokg l`s dbt trucy rgagrgdfgh ` n`segt ba `wohg r`dig ba furrgdfogs od sgttodi tlg v`cug ba tlg ^KN gxfl`dig r`tg. Xlg ^KN

gxfl`dig r`tg l`s rgcogh `dh fbdtodugs tb rgcy lg`vocy bd tlg WV hbcc`r `s ots `dflbrfurrgdfy, wotl cokotgh gxfl`dig r`tg vbc`tocoty.

@ffukuc`tobd ba abrgoid gxfl`dig rgsgrvgs

Cokotgh gxfl`dig r`tg vbc`tocoty, tbigtlgr wotl ` prgvòcodi bdg-w`y ngt bd tlg ^KN‟sfbdtodugh `pprgfo`tobd ìòdst tlg WV hbcc`r, cgh tb soidoaof`dt f`pot`c odacbws odtb tlgZ^F, wlofl rgquorgh tlg Z^F‟s kbdgt`ry ùtlbroty tb gdiìg od k`ssovg furrgdfyk`regt odtgrvgdtobds. Aoiurg 7 slbws tl`t tlg p`fg ba abrgoid gxfl`dig rgsgrvg`ffukuc`tobd l`h nggd r`poh udtoc tlg butnrgè ba tlg IAF. @atgr tlg frosos, tlg r`tg bairbwtl hgfgcgr`tgh, wotl rgsgrvgs l`rhcy irbwodi hurodi P> >:00‖P8 >:0>. Nut tlgrgsgrvgs ngi`d tb rosg bdfg ìòd od >:06, `cngot `t ` cgssgr p`fg tl`d od tlg prg-frosospgrobh.

@s ` sl`rg ba irbss hbkgstof prbhuft (IHZ), abrgoid gxfl`dig rgsgrvgs odfrg`sgharbk 08% od >::: tb 8::?‖>:0:, `dh tlgd hgfcodgh sbkgwl`t tb 8:% od>:06. @s tlg Z^F‟s furrgdt `ffbudt surpcus `s ` r`tob ba IHZ hgfcodgh sl`rpcy àtgrtlg IAF arbk ots pgè `t 0:% od >::9 tb bdcy >% od >:08, tlg p`fg ba rgsgrvg`ffukuc`tobd d`tur`ccy scbwgh hbwd. @s wocc ng slbwd c`tgr, rgsgrvg `ffukuc`tobd l`snggd `ffbkp`dogh ny ` r`poh odfrg`sg od tlg Z^F‟s kbdgt`ry n`sg. Xlos suiigsts tl`ttlg Z^F‟s kbdgt`ry pbcofy l`s nggd odfrg`sodicy odacugdfgh ny gxtgrd`c fbdhotobds.

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14/41


g`sogr. Xlg codeodi ba tlg Vl`dilò `dh Lbdi Ebdi, Flod` stbfe k`regts, cùdflgh odc`tg >:08, l`s `ccbwgh odvgstbrs od nbtl k`regts tb nuy g`fl btlgr‟s costgh sl`rgs `dhos `dbtlgr stgp tbw`rh ` kbrg bpgd f`pot`c `ffbudt.

Xlg r`poh ^KN odtgrd`tobd`coz`tobd prbfgss `csb kg`ds tl`t tlg Z^F‟s f`pot`c `ffbudt

os bpgdodi `t ` a`stgr p`fg, `ccbwodi k`regt p`rtofop`dts tb `rnotrìg `w`y gxfl`digr`tg `dh odtgrgst r`tg hoaagrgdto`cs ngtwggd k`regts od Lbdi Ebdi, Flod` `dh tlg Z^F.Xlgrgabrg, ot os d`tur`c tb `ssukg tl`t tlg gxostodi f`pot`c fbdtrbc kg`surgs wocc ngfbkgcgss gaagftovg.

Lbwgvgr, f`su`c bnsgrv`tobds suiigst tl`t ^KN `ssgts ba tlg s`kg k`turoty od nbtlbdslbrg `dh baaslbrg k`regts stocc gdmby c`rig yogch hoaagrgdto`cs. Abr gx`kpcg, 6-kbdtl^KN s`vodis hgpbsots bdslbrg bntòd ` rgturd ba >.1% pgr `dduk, wlocg 6-kbdtl tokghgpbsots od Lbdi Ebdi, Flod` bdcy baagr ` rgturd ba `rbudh :.7% (sgg Aoiurg 1@).Kg`dwlocg, 6-kbdtl Kodostry ba Aod`dfg nbdhs arbk tlg Z^F ossugh od Vl`dilò `dhLbdi Ebdi, Flod` stocc l`vg yogch hoaagrgdto`cs, wotl tlg slbrtgr-h`tgh nbdhs l`vodic`rigr yogch hoaagrgdto`cs (Aoiurg 1N).

Aoiurg 1= Bdslbrg `dh Baaslbrg ^gdkodno Odtgrgst ^`tg Hoaagrgdto`cs(%)

@. 6-kbdtl hgpbsot r`tgs N. Ibvgrdkgdt nbdh yogch furvgs

Z^F ; Zgbpcg‟s ̂ gpuncof ba Flod`.

Dbtg= Baaslbrg rgagrs tb Lbdi Ebdi, Flod`.

Vburfgs= Ncbbkngri5 FGOF.

Xlgsg bnsgrv`tobds `ppg`r tb suiigst tl`t tlg Z^F‟s f`pot`c fbdtrbcs `rg stocc gaagftovgbr nodhodi. Ot os tlgsg fbdtrbc kg`surgs tl`t hrovg ` wghig ngtwggd bdslbrg `dhbaaslbrg yogchs ny cokotodi `rnotrìg `ftovotogs od tlg abrk ba f`pot`c acbws. Xlgsgstròiltabrw`rh yogch fbkp`rosbds fbuch ng koscg`hodi, lbwgvgr, `s tlgy hb dbt tègodtb `ffbudt a`ftbrs sufl `s odtgrgst r`tg fbdtrbcs, tr`ds`ftobds fbsts, `dh tlg rose ba`rnotrìg hug tb f`pot`c fbdtrbcs.

Bdg soid ba tlos os tlg a`ft tl`t tlg Z^F‟s ud`ffbudtgh f`pot`c acbws l`vg st`rtgh tbirbw bvgr tokg. Aoiurg 9 slbws tl`t udtoc >::: noccobd, kbstcy od tlg abrk ba

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Bdslbrg 6-kbdtl s`vodi hgpbsot r`tg

Baaslbrg 6-kbdtl tokg hgpbsot r`tg

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Bdslbrg ibvgrdkgdt nbdh yogch arbk tlg Z^F

Baaslbrg ibvgrdkgdt nbdh yogch arbk tlg Z^F

0>


15/41


ud`ffbudtgh odacbws, fbodfohodi wotl tlg gxpgft`tobd ba ^KN `pprgfo`tobd. Vodfg >::?,grrbrs `dh bkossobds l`vg ngfbkg c`rig butacbws, `t `d `vgrìg ba fcbsg tb $77 noccobd.Grrbrs `dh bkossobds dukngrs ngf`kg gvgd c`rigr od >:0>‖>:06 tb `rbudh $ noccobd,suiigstodi tl`t tlg cgèìg arbk f`pot`c fbdtrbcs l`s ngfbkg c`rigr bvgr tokg, gvgdwlgd tlg ^KN gxfl`dig r`tg l`s nggd bd ` stg`hy `pprgfo`tobd.

Aoiurg 9= Grrbrs `dh Bkossobds od tlg N`c`dfg ba Z`ykgdts ba tlg Zgbpcg‟s^gpuncof ba Flod` `dh tlg ^`tg ba ^gdkodno @pprgfo`tobd

NBZ ; n`c`dfg ba p`ykgdts, ^KN ; rgdkodno.

Vburfg= OKA, Odtgrd`tobd`c Aod`dfo`c Vt`tostofs.

8.> Kg`surodi F`pot`c Fbdtrbc Gaagftovgdgss

@ usgauc ngdflk`re abr fbkp`rodi yogch hoaagrgdto`cs od twb k`regts os tb rgcy bd tlgfbvgrgh br udfbvgrgh odtgrgst r`tg p`roty (O^Z) fbdhotobds br sbkg kbhoaogh O^Zfbdhotobds tl`t f`d f`pturg hostbrtobds fùsgh ny f`pot`c fbdtrbcs. Wdhgr argg f`pot`ckbnocoty, tlg O^Z fbdhotobd st`tgs tl`t odvgstbrs slbuch ng odhoaagrgdt tb dbkod`c odtgrgstr`tg hoaagrgdto`cs od twb fbudtrogs ngfùsg tlg gxfl`dig r`tg ngtwggd tlg twbfurrgdfogs os gxpgftgh tb `hmust od ` w`y tl`t baasgts dbkod`c odtgrgst r`tg hoaagrgdto`cs,

tlus rgkbvodi `dy `rnotrìg bppbrtudotogs.Wsodi tlg O^Z `pprb`fl, K` `dh KfFùcgy (>::9) abudh tl`t tlg Z^F‟s f`pot`cfbdtrbcs rgkòdgh gaagftovg od hrovodi ` wghig ngtwggd bdslbrg `dh baaslbrg odtgrgstr`tgs ba tlg s`kg typg ba `ssgts, abr tlg pgrobh ngabrg tlg ^KN‟s forfuc`tobd baaslbrg. @kbrg `pprbpro`tg `pprb`fl tb odvgstoi`tg tlg Z^F‟s f`pot`c fbdtrbc gaagftovgdgss wbuchng tb abccbw ` sgkod`c stuhy ny Bt`do `dh Xow`ro (0?

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NBZ dgt grrbrs `dh bkossobds, $ noccobd (cgat-`xos)

^KN `ddu`c `vgrìg r`tg ba `pprgfo`tobd, % (roilt-`xos)

06


16/41


bdslbrg ^KN (FD_) `dh baaslbrg FDL tr`ds`ftobds. Xlg hoaagrgdfg ngtwggd tlg twbhgvo`tobds f`d ng vogwgh `s ` f`pot`c fbdtrbc gaagftovgdgss kg`surg tl`t `hhrgssgstr`ds`ftobds fbsts `dh btlgr hostbrtobds od nbtl k`regts.7

Xlg hgvo`tobd arbk tlg O^Z fbdhotobd od tlg Lbdi Ebdi, Flod` FDL k`regt f`d ng

hgaodgh `s abccbws=

( )( )

00

00 R ∞

+

+;

FDL WVH

FDL FDL FDL

A r

V r Hgvo`tobd , (0)

wlgrg r FDL os tlg 6-kbdtl baaslbrg ^KN (FDL) odtgrn`de odtgrgst r`tg5 r WVH os tlg 6-kbdtl WV hbcc`r odtgrn`de r`tg od Lbdi Ebdi, Flod`5 VFDL os tlg FDL spbt r`tg ìòdsttlg WV hbcc`r5 `dh A FDL os tlg FDL hgcovgr`ncg abrw`rh r`tg. Vodfg wg usg tlg 6-kbdtlodtgrgst r`tgs, tlg `ddu`cozgh odtgrgst r`tg os hovohgh ny ` a`ftbr ba 8 `dh tlg rgsuctsslbuch ng odtgrprgtgh `s pgrfgdtìg pbodts.

Vokoc`rcy, tlg hgvo`tobd arbk tlg O^Z fbdhotobd od frbss-nbrhgr odvgstkgdt f`d nggxprgssgh `s abccbws=

( )( )

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FDL WVH

FD_ FD_

FD_ A r

V r Hgvo`tobd , (>)

wlgrg r FD_ os tlg 6-kbdtl bdslbrg ^KN (FD_) odtgrn`de odtgrgst r`tg5 r WVH os tlg 6-kbdtl WV hbcc`r odtgrn`de r`tg od Lbdi Ebdi, Flod`5 VFD_ os tlg bdslbrg ^KN (FD_)spbt r`tg ìòdst tlg WV hbcc`r5 `dh A FDL os tlg FDL hgcovgr`ncg abrw`rh r`tg. Dbtg tl`ttlos O^Z fbdhotobd usgs tlg Lbdi Ebdi, Flod` FDL abrw`rh r`tg, r`tlgr tl`d tlgbdslbrg ^KN (FD_) abrw`rh r`tg, wlofl l`s dbt nggd auccy hgvgcbpgh od tgrks ba hgptl

`dh coquohoty.

@ctgrd`tovgcy, odvgstbrs k`y usg tlg baaslbrg dbd-hgcovgr`ncg abrw`rh (DHA) r`tg `csbqubtgh od Lbdi Ebdi, Flod`, A DHA , r`tlgr tl`d A FDL , `s tlg ^KN DHA k`regt od LbdiEbdi, Flod` os c`rigr `dh kbrg coquoh `t tlos stìg. K`dy odvgstbrs stocc usg tlos k`regttb lghig tlgor bdslbrg ^KN gxpbsurgs. Xlgrgabrg, tlg `nbvg gxprgssobd f`d ngfl`digh tb=

( )( )

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FDL

A r

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V r Hgvo`tobd (>)'

7 Hgtòcgh tgfldof`c hgrov`tobds ba tlgsg gqu`tobds f`d ng abudh od Bt`do `dh Xow`ro (0?


17/41


Aod`ccy, f`pot`c fbdtrbc gaagftovgdgss (FFG) kg`surgs f`d ng hgrovgh ny fbkp`rodigqu`tobds (0) `dh (>) `dh gqu`tobds (0)' `dh (>)'. Xlg hoaagrgdfg ngtwggd bdslbrg `dhbaaslbrg hgvo`tobds arbk O^Z kg`ds tl`t àtgr `hmustodi abr odtgrgst r`tg hoaagrgdto`cs`dh abrw`rh prgkouks, tlg hostbrtobd rgkòdodi f`d ng `ttronutgh tb f`pot`c fbdtrbcs.Vpgfoaof`ccy, tlg FFG kg`surgs f`d ng gxprgssgh `s=

FFG0 ; | Hgvo`tobdFD_R0 - Hgvo`tobdFDLR0 | (6)

FFG> ; | Hgvo`tobdFD_R> - Hgvo`tobdFDLR> | (6)'

Wsodi h`t` arbk >::? tb tlg prgsgdt, wg f`d f`cfuc`tg tlg hgvo`tobds arbk O^Z abrgqu`tobds (0) `dh (>), `dh gqu`tobds (0)' `dh (>)'. Aoiurg :0>, tlg hgvo`tobds l`vg ngfbkg bd `vgrìg dgicoioncg (wotlod °0%) `dh

`rg dbt a`r arbk p`roty. Xlos kg`ds tl`t tlg Lbdi Ebdi, Flod` FDL k`regt l`s quofecyngfbkg `d gaaofogdt k`regt, wotl cokotgh `rnotrìg bppbrtudotogs ngtwggd baaslbrgtr`ds`ftobds od WV hbcc`rs `dh FDL.

Lbwgvgr, tlos os dbt tlg f`sg abr frbss-nbrhgr odvgstkgdt odvbcvodi bdslbrg ^KN (FD_)`s wg hb bnsgrvg c`rig hgvo`tobds od gqu`tobd (>). Aoiurg :00.Xlos kg`ds tl`t oa tlg s`kg `kbudt ba ^KN wgrg tb l`vg nggd sloatgh arbk baaslbrg tbbdslbrg k`regts, tlg `rnotrìg rgturds wbuch l`vg nggd 1%‖9%. Arbk Dbvgkngr>:00 tb Vgptgkngr >:08, wg bnsgrvg ` a`cc od `rnotrìg bppbrtudotogs ba `d `vgrìg ba0%‖6%. Xlbuil tlos os ` sl`rp rghuftobd arbk tlg prg-Vgptgkngr >:00 pgrobh,hgvo`tobds arbk O^Z abr frbss-nbrhgr odvgstkgdt odvbcvodi bdslbrg ^KN (FD_) l`vgrgkòdgh kufl c`rigr tl`d tlbsg od tlg Lbdi Ebdi, Flod` FDL k`regt.

Aoiurg


18/41


8.6 Hgfcododi F`pot`c Fbdtrbc Gaagftovgdgss

Xlg twb fl`rts od Aoiurg ? `rg fbdstruftgh usodi gqu`tobds (6) `dh (6)' `dh prbvohg twbFFG kg`surgs, bdg n`sgh bd tlg FDL abrw`rh r`tg `dh tlg btlgr tlg DHA r`tg. Bvgr

tlg pgrobh >:0:‖>:08, ot `ppg`rs tl`t tlg Z^F‟s f`pot`c fbdtrbc rgiokg od igdgr`crgkòdgh gaagftovg hgspotg tlg r`poh ^KN odtgrd`tobd`coz`tobd prbfgss `dh tlg`ffgcgr`tgh p`fg ba f`pot`c `ffbudt bpgdodi.

Gx`kododi tlg f`cfuc`tobds kbrg f`rgauccy, wg bnsgrvg tl`t FFG l`s nggd hgfcododisodfg Vgptgkngr >:00, wlgd tlg FDL k`regt od Lbdi Ebdi, Flod` ngi`d tb irbwc`rigr, ngfbkg kbrg coquoh, `dh ng ngttgr rgiuc`tgh. Ylocg tlos struftur`c nrgè l`s ygttb ng tgstgh st`tostof`ccy, tlg hgfcodg l`s nggd sozg`ncg. Yg aodh tl`t tlgrg os dbsoidoaof`dt hoaagrgdfg ngtwggd FFG0 (Lbdi Ebdi, Flod` FDL odvgstkgdt usodi tlgFDL abrw`rh r`tg) `dh FFG> (bdslbrg ^KN UFD_[ odvgstkgdt usodi tlg DHA r`tg).Nbtl kg`surgs hgfcodgh arbk `d `vgrìg ba 7.>% od tlg pgrobh ngabrg Vgptgkngr >:00tb `d `vgrìg ba >.7% od tlg pgrobh àtgr Vgptgkngr >:00. 1

Aoiurg ?= F`pot`c Fbdtrbc Gaagftovgdgss Kg`surgs(%)

@. N`sgh bd tlg FDL abrw`rh r`tg N. N`sgh bd tlg dbd-hgcovgr`ncg abrw`rh r`tg

FDL ; rgdkodno k`regt ba Lbdi Ebdi, Flod`.

Vburfg= @utlbrs' fbkput`tobds usodi h`t` arbk FGOF `dh Ncbbkngri.

Xlos aodhodi suiigsts tl`t tlg hg murg f`pot`c fbdtrbcs `hbptgh ny tlg Z^F ùtlbrotyk`y db cbdigr ng suffgssauc od prgvgdtodi prbaot-hrovgd f`pot`c acbws ngtwggd LbdiEbdi, Flod` `dh tlg Z^F. Xlg c`rig `dh irbwodi tr`hg odtgir`tobd ba tlg Z^F wotlLbdi Ebdi, Flod` k`y l`vg fbdtronutgh tb tlg hg a`ftb aod`dfo`c odtgir`tobd ba tlgZ^F wotl Lbdi Ebdi, Flod` bvgr tokg, abr ` iovgd hgirgg ba hg murg f`pot`c fbdtrbcs,

1 Ot k`y ng dbtgh tl`t, wlocg tlg FFG kg`surgs s`w sl`rp hgfcodgs od >:0>, tlgy st`rtgh tb rosg od tlg

sgfbdh l`ca ba >:06, rg`flodi `s loil `s 7.?% od Agnru`ry >:08, ngabrg a`ccodi ìòd n`fe tb tlg r`digba :%‖>% od tlg sgfbdh l`ca ba >:08. Xlg rosg ba tlg FFG od tlg aorst l`ca ba >:08 fbuch ng c`rigcy`ttronutgh tb rosodi gxfl`dig r`tg vbc`tocoty `s wgcc `s ` sl`rp gxfl`dig r`tg hgprgfo`tobd gdiodggrgh ny

tlg Z^F‟s kbdgt`ry ùtlbroty. Bdfg tlg ^KN rgturdgh tb ` bdg-w`y ngt abr `pprgfo`tobd wotl cottcgvbc`tocoty od tlg sgfbdh l`ca ba >:08, tlg FFG kg`surgs hrbppgh ìòd.

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01


19/41


tlrbuil `d gxp`dhgh usg ba tlg furrgdt `ffbudt abr f`pot`c `ffbudt purpbsgs sufl `str`hg kos-odvbofodi.

Odhggh, tlg ^KN‟s rbcg `s ` tr`hg sgttcgkgdt furrgdfy l`s a`focot`tgh hg a`ftb f`pot`cacbws tlrbuil tr`hg tr`ds`ftobds. Abr gx`kpcg, tlg Z^F‟s gxpbrt aoiurg od P0 >:06 w`s

`ndbrk`ccy c`rig. Xlg `dbk`cy fbuch ng gxpcòdgh ny tlg rbudh-troppodi ba ibbhsngtwggd Vlgdzlgd `dh Lbdi Ebdi, Flod`, `d odtgrd`tobd`c gdtrgpøt, `s wgcc `s tlgbvgr-odvbofodi ba gxpbrts arbk Vlgdzlgd.

Xlgsg tr`hg `ftovotogs odtgdh tb sgge aod`dfo`c iòds bd c`rig bdslbrg `dh baaslbrgodtgrgst r`tg hoaagrgdto`cs (sgg Aoiurg 0:), cg`hodi tb c`rig f`pot`c odacbws, wlofl pbsgfl`ccgdigs tb tlg Z^F‟s kbdgt`ry pbcofy wlocg `hhodi `pprgfo`tobd prgssurgs tb tlg^KN gxfl`dig r`tg. Xlg ùtlbrotogs l`vg l`h tb gdiìg od pgrobhof fr`fehbwds `dhsuhhgd abrgoid gxfl`dig k`regt odtgrvgdtobds tb scbw sufl `ftovotogs.

Aoiurg 0:= Xlrgg-kbdtl VLONB^, FDL LONB^, `dh CONB^(%)

LONB^ ; Lbdi Ebdi, Flod` Odtgrn`de Baagrgh ^`tg (abr baaslbrg rgdkodno UFDL[), CONB^ ; Cbdhbd Odtgrn`deBaagrgh ^`tg (abr tlg WV hbcc`r), VLONB^ ; Vl`dilò Odtgrn`de Baagrgh ^`tg (abr bdslbrg rgdkodno UFD_[),

Vburfg= Ncbbkngri.

^gfgdt pbcofy hgvgcbpkgdts `ccbwodi aorks cbf`tgh od tlg Vl`dilò Argg Xr`hg ]bdg tbgxpgrokgdt wotl aurtlgr f`pot`c `ffbudt congr`coz`tobd ny t`ppodi odtb baaslbrg k`regtsabr audhodi wocc kèg tlg gxostodi f`pot`c fbdtrbc kg`surgs gvgd cgss gaagftovg. Oa tlgfurrgdt trgdh ba hg a`ftb aod`dfo`c k`regt bpgdodi fbdtodugs, tlg Z^F‟s hg murg f`pot`cfbdtrbcs wocc cbsg gaagftovgdgss a`stgr tl`d gxpgftgh. Xlos wocc `csb kg`d tl`t ots f`pot`c`ffbudt fbuch ngfbkg kbrg bpgd (hg a`ftb) kufl a`stgr tl`d os furrgdtcy gxpgftgh ny>:>:.

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6-kbdtl VLONB^ 6-kbdtl FDL LONB^ 6-kbdtl CONB^

09


20/41


7. KBDGX@^_ ZBCOF_ FL@CCGDIGV OD XLGZGBZCG‟V ^GZWNCOF BA FLOD@

Xlg Z^F ùtlbroty os a`fodi soidoaof`dt fl`ccgdigs od ots pursuot ba kbdgt`ry pbcofy. Xlossgftobd hosfussgs tlg okp`ft ba odfbkpcgtg odtgrgst r`tg rgabrk, tlg sprg`h ba sl`hbwn`deodi, `dh rosodi soids ba kbdgt`ry pbcofy odgaagftovgdgss.

7.0 Odtgrgst ^`tg ^gabrk

Xlg Z^F l`s usgh aod`dfo`c rgprgssobd od tlg abrk ba fbdtrbccgh odtgrgst r`tgs `dhfrghot `ccbf`tobd wotl `d òk tb suppbrt odvgstkgdt `dh gfbdbkof irbwtl. Odtgrgst r`tgfbdtrbcs `dh btlgr aod`dfo`c rgprgssobd kg`surgs l`vg `csb cgh tb tlgudhgrhgvgcbpkgdt ba tlg aod`dfo`c sgftbr, odgaaofogdt `ccbf`tobd ba s`vodis, gxfgssovgodvgstkgdt, `dh bvgrf`p`foty od fgrtòd sgftbrs ba tlg gfbdbky.

Od 0??1, tlg Z^F gkn`regh bd odtgrgst r`tg rgabrk ny ir`hu`ccy congr`cozodi odtgrn`de

cgdhodi r`tgs. Vodfg tlgd, v`robus rgabrk kg`surgs l`vg nggd fbkpcgtgh, odfcuhodi tlg`nbcoslkgdt ba tlg uppgr cokot bd odtgrn`de cgdhodi r`tgs od 0??1, tlg congr`coz`tobd baabrgoid furrgdfy cgdhodi r`tgs od >:::, tlg rgkbv`c ba cgdhodi r`tg fgocodis abr kbstaod`dfo`c odstotutobds od >::8, tlg cùdfl ba tlg Vl`dilò Odtgrn`de Baagrgh ^`tg(VLONB^) od >::9, tlg `nbcoslkgdt ba tlg cgdhodi r`tg acbbr, `dh tlg cùdfl baodtgrn`de dgibto`ncg fgrtoaof`tgs ba hgpbsot (DFHs) od >:06, `s slbwd od Aoiurg 00.

Aoiurg 00= Xokgcodg ba tlg Zgbpcg‟s ^gpuncof ba Flod`‟s Odtgrgst ^`tgCongr`coz`tobd

F@H ; F`d`ho`d hbcc`r, FLA ; Vwoss ar`df, INZ ; pbudh stgrcodi, ^KN ; rgdkodno.

Vburfg= Zgbpcg‟s N`de ba Flod`.

@kbdi tlg rgfgdt pbcofy fl`digs, bdg ba tlg kbst soidoaof`dt w`s tlg rgkbv`c ba tlgn`de cgdhodi r`tg acbbr od Mucy >:06, wlofl `ccbwgh n`des tb arggcy sgt tlgor bwd cgdhodir`tgs. Ylocg tlos w`s ` noi stgp od odtgrgst r`tg rgabrk, tlg `ftu`c okp`ft bd tlg rg`cgfbdbky l`s nggd quotg cokotgh. Ngabrg tlg rgabrk, `ctlbuil fbkkgrfo`c n`des l`hnggd `ccbwgh tb baagr ` hosfbudt ba up tb 6:% ba tlg ngdflk`re cgdhodi r`tg, n`des od

^òsgh cgdhodir`tg fgocodi abrsk`cc gdtgrprosgs`dh rur`c frghotudobds

0??1 0??9 0??< 0??? >::: >::0 >::> >::6 >::8 >::7 >::1 >::9 >::< >::? >:0: >:00 >:0> >:06

@nbcoslgh uppgrcokot bd odtgrn`decgdhodi r`tgs

Bpgdgh upodtgrn`de rgpbk`regts

@ccbwgh sbkg odstotutobdstb dgibto`tg r`tgs bdhgpbsots bvgr FD_6:

kocc obd `dh `nbvg 7 yg`rs

Congr`cozgh abrgoidfurrgdfy cgdhodi r`tgs `dhabrgoid furrgdfy hgpbsotr t̀gs abr hgpbsots bvgr $6koccobd

Congr`cozgh INZ,FLA, F@H hgpbsotr`tgs

^gkbvgh cgdhodi r t̀gfgocodi abr `cc aod`dfo`c

odstotutobds (gxfc. urn`d`dh rur`c frghot udobds)`dh c̀cbwgh ^KN hgpbsothosfbudt

CùdflghVl`dil ò Odtgrn`deBaagrgh ^ t̀g(VLONB^)

Cbwgrgh cgdhodi r t̀gacbbr tb :.9x `dhròsgh hgpbsot r`tgfgocodi tb 0.0x

@nbcoslgh cgdhodi r`tg acbbr.Congr`cozgh hosfbudt r`tg.^gkbvgh cgdhodi r t̀g fgocodiabr rur c̀ frghot udobds

Cùdflgh odtgrn`dedgibto`ncgfgrtoaof`tgs ba hgpbsot

>:08

^òsgh hgpbsotr`tg fgocodi tb0.6x

0


21/41


pr`ftofg l`h r`rgcy hbdg sb. 9 Bdcy `nbut 00% ba cb`ds wgrg baagrgh ngcbw tlgngdflk`re r`tg tlrbuil kbst ba >:06. Xlg `vgrìg wgoiltgh 0-yg`r cgdhodi r`tg`ftu`ccy odfrg`sgh arbk 1.9% od K`rfl tb 9.>% ny tlg gdh ba >:06.

@atgr tlg rgkbv`c ba tlg cgdhodi r`tg acbbr, tlg kbdgt`ry ùtlbroty cùdflgh ` systgk

abr ` prokg cb`d r`tg (ZC^) od Bftbngr >:06. Xlos os `d odhof`tovg odtgrgst r`tg `t wloflfbkkgrfo`c n`des cgdh tb tlgor prokg fustbkgrs. Xlg ZC^ os f`cfuc`tgh `s tlgwgoiltgh `vgrìg ba ` p`dgc ba n`des‟ cgdhodi r`tgs tl`t tlgy fl`rig tlgor ngst fcogdts.Xlos w`s `csb sggd `s ` stgp tbw`rh aurtlgr odtgrgst r`tg congr`coz`tobd, `s tlg ZC^fbuch rgpc`fg tlg furrgdt ngdflk`re pbcofy cgdhodi r`tg `dh ng ir`hu`ccy usgh `s `dgw k`regt-hrovgd ngdflk`re abr cgdhodi r`tgs.

Xlg Z^F‟s hgpbsot r`tg rgkòds fbdtrbccgh. Xb `hh sbkg acgxonocoty tb tlg fbdtrbccghhgpbsot fgocodi r`tg, tlg ùtlbroty l`s nggd tèodi ` ir`hu`c `pprb`fl tb congr`cozodin`de hgpbsot r`tgs. Fbkkgrfo`c n`des wgrg `ccbwgh tb fl`rig ` hgpbsot r`tg prgkouk,odfrg`sodi tlg r`tg ny up tb 0:% arbk tlg ngdflk`re hgpbsot r`tg od >:0>, `dh up tb6:% od Dbvgkngr >:08.:06, wlofl wgrg profgh wotl rgagrgdfg tb tlg VLONB^. Xlos rgacgftstlg `ftu`c suppcy `dh hgk`dh fbdhotobds ba tlg odtgrn`de k`regt, sodfg odtgrn`deDFHs `rg tr`h`ncg. Xlos kg`ds tl`t c`rig hgpbsots `rg dbw profgh `ffbrhodi tb k`regthgk`dh `dh suppcy. Xlgsg pbcofy kg`surgs l`vg k`hg hgpbsot r`tgs cgss nodhodi bvgrtokg.

Od `hhotobd, fbkkgrfo`c n`des l`vg usgh baa-n`c`dfg-slggt `ftovotogs tb gv`hg tlgfbdtrbccgh hgpbsot fgocodi r`tg vo` wg`ctl k`dìgkgdt prbhufts (YKZs). Fcbsg tb87,::: YKZs wgrg ossugh od >:06 `kbudtodi tb FD_0: troccobd, `rbudh 0:% ba tlgZ^F‟s tbt`c hgpbsots. Bd `vgrìg, YKZs baagr ` r`tg ba rgturd ba `rbudh 7.7%, wlofl oskufl loilgr tl`d tr`hotobd`c hgpbsot r`tgs (Aoiurg 0>). Aod`dfo`c oddbv`tobds sufl `sodtgrdgt-n`sgh aod`dfo`c prbhufts l`vg nggd fbkpgtodi wotl tlg n`deodi systgk abr

hgpbsots, tlus puttodi aurtlgr prgssurg bd n`des tb baagr loilgr hgpbsot r`tgs `dh kbrg`ttr`ftovg YKZ yogchs tb fbkpgtg abr n`de audhodi.

9 Yotl tlg cb`d r`tg hosfbudt, tlg kodokuk cb`d r`tg n`des fbuch fl`rig bd 0-yg`r cb`ds ngf`kg 8.>%

wlgd tlg 0-yg`r ngdflk`re cb`d r`tg w`s 1%.<

Yotl tlg hgpbsot r`tg prgkouk, tlg k`xokuk hgpbsot r`tg n`des fbuch baagr bd 0-yg`r hgpbsots ngf`kg6.?% `s tlg 0-yg`r ngdflk`re hgpbsot r`tg w`s 6%.

0?


22/41


Aoiurg 0>= Hgpbsot Odtgrgst ^`tg, Yg`ctl K`dìgkgdt Zrbhuft ^`tg ba ^gturd,`dh Fbdsukgr Zrofg Odhgx Odac`tobd ^`tg (yg`r-bd-yg r̀, %)

FZO ; fbdsukgr profg odhgx, YKZ ; wg`ctl k`dìgkgdt prbhuft.

Vburfgs= FGOF5 YODH.

7.> Vprg`h ba Vl`hbw N`deodi @ftovotogs

Vl`hbw n`deodi rgagrs tb frghot odtgrkgho`tobd odvbcvodi gdtotogs br `ftovotogs ny dbd-

n`des, p`rtofuc`rcy aod`dfo`c odtgrkgho`tobd butsohg tlg rgiuc`tgh n`deodi systgk (OKA>:08`). Xb `ppcy tlos fbdfgpt tb tlg Z^F, ots sl`hbw n`deodi fbdsosts ba aod`dfo`codstotutobd nusodgss (baa-n`c`dfg-slggt `ssgts ny n`des dbt sunmgft tb rgiuc`tobd), trustprbhufts, `dh udhgrirbudh n`deodi. Yg gstok`tg tl`t tlg sl`hbw n`deodi `ftovotogs odtlg Z^F fbuch ng `t cg`st FD_6: troccobd, gquov`cgdt tb 7>% ba IHZ od >:06 br 0?% batbt`c n`de `ssgts od tlg Z^F.

Fbkkgrfo`c n`des `rg sunmgft tb toilt rgiuc`tobds, sufl `s ` cokot bd tlg hgpbsot r`tgfgocodi, tlg 97% cb`d-tb-hgpbsot r`tob rgquorgkgdt, `dh tlg f`pot`c `hgqu`fyrgquorgkgdt. Iovgd tlg rosodi hgk`dh abr frghot, fbkkgrfo`c n`des od tlg Z^F ngi`dtb gv`hg sufl toilt rgiuc`tobds tlrbuil v`robus kg`surgs. Xlgsg odfcuhg= (o) aod`dfo`codstotutobd nusodgss, o.g., fl`ddgcodi c`rig `kbudts ba hgpbsots tb btlgr aod`dfo`codstotutobds (nbtl n`des `dh dbd-n`de aod`dfo`c odstotutobds) wlofl, udcoeg fbrpbr`tgcgdhodi nusodgss, os dbt sunmgft tb tlg 97% cb`d-tb-hgpbsot r`tob rgquorgkgdt br tlg loilf`pot`c rgquorgkgdt5 (oo) trust prbhufts, o.g., fbccgftodi qu`so-hgpbsots (trust audhs, YKZs,gtf.) arbk tlg puncof tb aod`dfg baa-n`c`dfg-slggt `ftovotogs5 `dh (ooo) udhgrirbudhn`deodi, o.g., udhgrtèodi odabrk`c n`deodi od tlg abrk ba horgftcy odtgrkgho`todi prov`tgaudhs `kbdi gdtgrprosgs `dh odhovohu`cs, wlofl os dbt sunmgft tb tlg dbrk`c rgiuc`tobdsba tlg abrk`c n`deodi systgk.?

? Yotl rgi`rh tb qu`so-hgpbsots, od `hhotobd tb nbrrbwodi `kbdi tlgksgcvgs, n`des dbrk`ccy ossug YKZs

tb aod`dfg baa-n`c`dfg-slggt prbhufts. Bvgr`cc, aoxgh-r`tg YKZs prbvohg kufl loilgr yogchs tl`drgiuc`tgh hgpbsots. Xypof`ccy, fbkkgrfo`c n`des sgt up ` –f`pot`c pbbc‛ wlofl fbdsosts ba nbdhs, trust

prbhufts, cb`d-coeg fcòks, `dh odtgr-n`de cb`ds. N`sgh bd tlos pbbc, fbkkgrfo`c n`des ossug slbrt-tgdbrYKZs tb k`tfl cbdi-tgrk `ssgts, kufl coeg wl`t `d `ssgt k`dìgkgdt fbkp`dy (wotlod ` n`de) hbgs.

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Hgpbsot r`tg YKZ r`tg ba rgturd FZO odac`tobd r`tg (y-b-y)

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Odtgrdgt aod`dfo`c prbhufts `dh kbdgy k`regt audhs l`vg `csb hgvgcbpgh r`pohcy tbgv`hg abrk`c n`deodi rgiuc`tobds. _u‟g N`b, tlg noiigst odtgrdgt aod`dfo`c prbhuft, os `dodvgstkgdt prbhuft baagrgh ny @cop`y, usgrs ba wlofl f`d put tlgor kbdgy odtb tlgprbhuft wotl db kodokuk `kbudt rgquorgkgdt `dh wotlhr`w tlgor f`sl `dytokg, èod tb`d bpgd-gdh kbdgy k`regt audh. Kbdgy k`regt audhs put kbrg tl`d ?:% ba tlgorkbdgy `s aod`dfo`c odstotutobd hgpbsots od fbkkgrfo`c n`des. Aod`dfo`c odstotutobdhgpbsot r`tgs `rg dgibto`ncg, `dh dbt sunmgft tb tlg n`des‟ rgsgrvg rgquorgkgdts.

Xlg sl`hbw n`deodi systgk l`s pbsgh rgiuc`tbry fl`ccgdigs tb tlg Z^F‟s aod`dfo`cst`nocoty. Aorst, ots r`poh hgvgcbpkgdt fbuch abrfg tlg rgiuc`tgh n`deodi sgftbr tb gxp`dhots baa-n`c`dfg-slggt `ftovotogs od brhgr tb fbkpgtg wotl dbd-n`de aod`dfo`c odstotutobdsabr hgpbsots, odtgrdgt aod`dfo`c prbhufts, gtf. C`rig baa-n`c`dfg `ftovotogs fbuch kègfbkkgrfo`c n`de hgpbsots kbrg slbrt tgrk, tlus gx`fgrn`todi k`turoty kosk`tflgs`dh hgst`nocozodi tlg bvgr`cc n`deodi systgk. Vgfbdh, fgrtòd aod`dfo`c odstotutobds `rgdbt sunmgft tb tlg s`kg pruhgdto`c rgiuc`tobds `s hgpbsot-tèodi odstotutobds. @s ` rgsuct,tlgy fbuch odfrg`sg tlgor aod`dfo`c cgvgrìg, kìdoayodi nbtl prbaots hurodi ` nbbk yg`r`dh cbssgs hurodi ` hbwdturd. Xlorh, tlg abrk`c n`deodi sgftbr l`s tlg odfgdtovg tb

prbvohg cb`ds tb dbd-n`de aod`dfo`c odstotutobds ngfùsg sufl cb`ds `rg sunmgft tb bdcy` qu`rtgr ba rgiuc`tbry f`pot`c rgquorgkgdt. Xlos wbuch odfrg`sg aod`dfo`c codes ngtwggdn`des `dh dbd-n`de aod`dfo`c odstotutobds. Xlus tlg gxp`dsobd ba sl`hbw n`deodi fbuchpbsg aod`dfo`c roses tb tlg abrk`c n`deodi sgftbr ngfùsg ba ots rosodiodtgrfbddgftghdgss wotl pbtgdto`ccy udst`ncg sl`hbw n`deodi `ftovotogs.

7.6 ôsodi Voids ba Zbcofy Odgaagftovgdgss

Vodfg tlg gruptobd ba tlg IAF, tlg Z^F‟s kbdgt`ry ùtlbroty l`s `hmustgh ots kbdgt`rypbcofy st`dfg od rgspbdsg tb fl`diodi prbspgfts ba IHZ irbwtl `dh fbdsukgr profgodhgx (FZO) odac`tobd. A`fodi tlg IAF od tlg aod`c qu`rtgr ba >:::0:‖>:00, tlg kbdgt`ry ùtlbroty sloatghots kbdgt`ry st`dfg arbk aoiltodi ìòdst tlg frosos tb fbkn`todi odac`tobd ny ròsodi tlgngdflk`re hgpbsot `dh cb`d r`tgs `dh tlg rgsgrvg rgquorgkgdt r`tob. Xlg rgsgrvgrgquorgkgdt r`tob w`s ròsgh 0> tokgs, wlocg tlg odtgrgst r`tg w`s `hmustgh 7 tokgshurodi tlos pgrobh. Ylgd tlg Gurbpg`d aod`dfo`c frosos hggpgdgh od tlg sgfbdh l`ca ba>:00 `dh >:0>, tlg kbdgt`ry ùtlbroty ir`hu`ccy g`sgh ots pbcofy.

Arbk –f`sl frudflgs‛ tb –qu`dtoty swodis‛

Arbk K`y >:0>, tlg kbdgt`ry ùtlbroty sggkgh tb l`vg `vbohgh tlg usg ba ots

tr`hotobd`c pbcofy tbbceot, sufl `s `hmustodi tlg rgsgrvg rgquorgkgdt r`tob `dh tlgngdflk`re odtgrgst r`tg tb fbdhuft kbdgt`ry pbcofy. Odstg`h, ot ngi`d tb rgcy bd bpgdk`regt bpgr`tobds odtgdsovgcy vo` rgpbs `dh rgvgrsg rgpbs tb odmgft `dh wotlhr`wcoquohoty arbk tlg n`deodi systgk. @s ` rgsuct, c`rig swodis ba odtgrgst r`tgs `dh cb`dqu`dtotogs wgrg bnsgrvgh hurodi Mudg‖Mucy >:06.

Od koh-Mudg >:06, ` suhhgd rg-profodi ba fbudtgr-p`rty rose nrbuilt `nbut ` surig odtlg slbrt-tgrk odtgrgst r`tg `dh tlgrgàtgr, soidoaof`dt vbc`tocoty od tlg kbdgy k`regt.Xlg 9-h`y rgpb r`tg, ` rgco`ncg odhof`tbr kg`surodi k`regt coquohoty fbdhotobds, surightb `ckbst 0>% arbk cgss tl`d 8% od ` h`y, wotl tlg loil r`tg c`stodi abr > wgges. Xlgk`regt p`dof frg`tgh –f`sl frudflgs‛ od tlg Z^F‟s odtgrn`de k`regts. Xlg ùtlbrotyaod`ccy odmgftgh coquohoty odtb tlg n`deodi systgk > wgges c`tgr vo` tlg slbrt-tgrk cgdhodi

a`focoty (VCA), wlofl g`sgh k`regt coquohoty fbdhotobds od Mucy >:06. Xlg 9-h`y rgpbsrgkòdgh quotg vbc`tocg udtoc M`du`ry >:08 àtgr tlg ùtlbroty gdiìgh od –hbuncg

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odtgrvgdtobds,‛ o.g., odtgrvgdtobds od nbtl tlg abrgoid gxfl`dig `dh kbdgy k`regts voùdstgrocozgh odtgrvgdtobds, cg`hodi tb ^KN hgprgfo`tobd `dh kbdgy k`regt r`tghgfcodgs.

Vodfg tlg Mudg >:06 –f`sl frudflgs,‛ tlg ùtlbroty `ppg`rs tb l`vg ngfbkg kbrg

prb`ftovg od k`dìodi kbdgy k`regt coquohoty fbdhotobds. Lbwgvgr, tlg qu`dtoty bacb`ds prbvohgh l`s ngfbkg cgss st`ncg tl`d ngabrg. Xlg Z^F‟s dgw ^KN cb`ds wgrgbdcy FD_6:08, kufl cbwgr tl`d tlg k`regt fbdsgdsus ba FD_9::< Cglk`d fbcc`psg.0:

Vufl c`rig swodis, od tgrks ba kbdgy k`regt r`tgs br cb`d qu`dtotogs, fbuch frg`tgsoidoaof`dt slbfes tb tlg aod`dfo`c systgk `dh ròsg rose prgkouks sl`rpcy, tlgrgnyfùsodi c`rig swodis od rg`c IHZ irbwtl.

Fl`diodi kbdgt`ry pbcofy gdvorbdkgdts

Ylocg tlg kbdgt`ry ùtlbroty l`s dbt `hmustgh ots pbcofy st`dfg od ` soidoaof`dt w`ysodfg Mucy >:0>, tlg icbn`c aod`dfo`c gdvorbdkgdt `dh hbkgstof gfbdbkof fbdhotobdsl`vg fl`digh. Hbkgstof`ccy, tlg Z^F‟s irbwtl l`s kbhgr`tgh arbk `rbudh ?% tb9.7%. @s tlg butput i`p d`rrbwgh sl`rpcy, tlg rose ba hgac`tobd l`s rosgd. Xlg Z^F‟sprbhufgr profg odhgx (ZZO) l`s gxpgrogdfgh pgrsostgdt hgac`tobd sodfg K`rfl >:0>.Gxtgrd`ccy, tlg WV Aghgr`c ^gsgrvg Vystgk (Agh) gxp`dhgh `ssgt purfl`sgs (`hbptobdba PG6), gdhgh PG, `dh os dbw lg`hodi tbw`rh kbdgt`ry pbcofy dbrk`coz`tobd5 tlgGurbpg`d Fgdtr`c N`de (GFN) fut odtgrgst r`tgs tlrofg5 `dh tlg N`de ba M`p`d ngi`d`d ìirgssovg qu`dtot`tovg `dh qu`cot`tovg g`sodi prbir`k udhgr tlg n`ddgr ba @ngdbkofs.

Vbkg egy fgdtr`c n`des od @so` `dh Bfg`do` (tlg ^gsgrvg N`de ba @ustr`co`, tlg N`deba Ebrg`, `dh tlg N`de ba Xlòc`dh) l`vg fut tlgor bwd pbcofy r`tgs od brhgr tb rghufgodtgrgst r`tg hoaagrgdto`cs od `d `ttgkpt tb prgvgdt bvgr-v`cugh furrgdfogs abrfbkpgtotovgdgss rg`sbds. Xlg Z^F‟s ùtlbroty, bd tlg btlgr l`dh, rgaròdgh arbk usodiots tr`hotobd`c pbcofy tbbceots sufl `s fl`digs od tlg ngdflk`re odtgrgst r`tg `dh tlgrgsgrvg rgquorgkgdt r`tob ngfùsg ba tlg dggh tb durturg ` pbcofy t`rigt odtgrgst r`tg.Odstg`h, ot l`s rgcogh bd bpgd k`regt bpgr`tobds tb k`dìg coquohoty fbdhotobds. @sslbwd od tlg prgvobus sgftobd, tlg c`rig odtgrgst r`tg hoaagrgdto`c ngtwggd bdslbrg `dhbaaslbrg k`regts wotl cottcg gxfl`dig r`tg vbc`tocoty cgh tb c`rig f`pot`c odacbws (Aoiurg 9).Od >:06 `cbdg, dgt f`pot`c odacbws odtb tlg Z^F wgrg fcbsg tb $7:: noccobd. Abr tlg aorst >qu`rtgrs ba >:08, dgt f`pot`c odacbw w`s kbrg tl`d $>:: noccobd.

Ylocg tlg Z^F l`s tègd orrgvgrsoncg stgps tb prbirgssovgcy bpgdodi tlg f`pot`c`ffbudt, ots gxfl`dig r`tg pbcofy l`s rgkòdgh roioh, stg`hocy `pprgfo`todi ìòdst tlg

WV hbcc`r. Xlos fbdhotobd l`s hr`wd c`rig f`pot`c odacbws bd soz`ncg odtgrgst r`tghoaagrgdto`cs `dh gxpgft`tobds ba ^KN `pprgfo`tobd, tlus cokotodi kbdgt`ry pbcofygaagftovgdgss `dh ùtbdbky.

ôsodi soids ba `ssgt profg nunncgs

Fbrpbr`tg cb`ds `s ` pgrfgdtìg ba tlg Z^F‟s ìirgi`tg aod`dfodi l`vg fbdtodugh tbhgfcodg `dh ZZO odac`tobd l`s rgkòdgh dgi`tovg abr dg`rcy > yg`rs, suiigstodi tl`thgk`dh abr frghot arbk tlg rg`c sgftbr l`s rgkòdgh wgè. Kg`dwlocg, n`des‟ rgsgrvg

0: Wdhosfbudtgh n`de noccs hgfcodgh ny FD_801 noccobd od Mucy >:08, abccbwodi ` FD_088 noccobd odfrg`sg odtlg prgvobus kbdtl, c`rigcy bwodi tb tlg fr`fehbwd bd fbkkbhoty aod`dfodi abccbwodi tlg Podih`b pbrt

arùh f`sg. Xrust `dh gdtrustgh cb`d irbwtl `csb sbatgdgh, odhof`todi tl`t sl`hbw n`deodi `ftovotogsl`vg scbwgh hbwd sl`rpcy, wotl aurtlgr dgi`tovg okpcof`tobds abr tlg prbpgrty sgftbr.

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25/41


kbdgy l`s rosgd bd c`rig f`pot`c odacbws tl`t l`vg cgh tb ` r`poh `ffukuc`tobd baabrgoid gxfl`dig rgsgrvgs (Aoiurg 06). Xb kggt tlgor prbaot irbwtl t`rigt, fbkkgrfo`cn`des l`vg frg`tgh dgw aod`dfo`c vglofcgs tb gxp`dh tlgor n`c`dfg slggts abr aod`dfo`c`ftovotogs. Vufl `ftovotogs l`vg rgsuctgh od ` surig od kbdgy suppcy wotlbut soidoaof`dtaod`dfo`c odtgrkgho`tobd tb tlg rg`c sgftbr.

Aoiurg 06= Kbdgt`ry N`sg `dh Dgt Abrgoid @ssgts Zurfl`sgh ny tlg Zgbpcg‟sN`de ba Flod` (FD_ troccobd)

FD_ ; rgdkodno, ZNbF ; Zgbpcg‟s N`de ba Flod`.

Vburfg= YODH.

Kbdgy l`s nyp`ssgh tlg rg`c sgftbr `dh nggd fl`ddgcgh odtb loil-rgturd, loil-rosesgftbrs sufl `s tlg prbpgrty k`regt. Od >:06, tlg Z^F‟s prbpgrty profgs sb`rgh ìòd,cgh ny aorst-togr fotogs. Ylocg tlg stbfe k`regt l`s rgkòdgh hgprgssgh, btlgr `ssgtk`regts sufl `s abr `rt fbccgftobds `dh plysof`c ibch odvgstkgdts l`vg ngfbkgnuby`dt, rgacgftodi ` sokkgrodi `ssgt profg nunncg.

1. GKZOÔF@C GQOHGDFG BD HOKODOVLODI KBDGX@^_ZBCOF_ @WXBDBK_ OD XLG ZGBZCG‟V ^GZWNCOFBA FLOD@

Xlg prgvobus sgftobd fbdsohgrgh tlg v`robus fl`ccgdigs a`fodi tlg Z^F‟s kbdgt`rypbcofy. Kufl hbfukgdtgh h`t` suiigst tl`t kbdgt`ry pbcofy gaagftovgdgss l`s hgfcodghod tlg Z^F `dh ots pbcofy ùtbdbky l`s grbhgh wotl r`poh ^KN odtgrd`tobd`coz`tobd `dh` cokotgh ygt odfrg`sodicy bpgd f`pot`c `ffbudt. Xlg prbncgk sggks tb stgk arbk tlga`ft tl`t tlg Z^F‟s f`pot`c fbdtrbcs l`vg ngfbkg cgss gaagftovg bvgr tokg wlocg otsgxfl`dig r`tg rgiokg l`s rgkòdgh roioh hgspotg rgfgdt gaabrts tb kèg ot kbrg acgxoncg.Od tlos sgftobd, wg gx`kodg tlg Z^F‟s kbdgt`ry pbcofy gaagftovgdgss `dh ùtbdbkyusodi ` sgt ba gfbdbkgtrof `d`cysgs.

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Kbdgt`ry n`sg Dgt abrgoid ̀ ssgts lgch ny ZNbF

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1.0 Kbdgt`ry Zbcofy Ar`kgwbre ba tlg Zgbpcg‟s ^gpuncof baFlod`

Xlg bnmgftovg ba tlg Z^F‟s kbdgt`ry pbcofy os tb kòdtòd profg st`nocoty sb `s tb

prbkbtg gfbdbkof irbwtl udhgr tlg k`dh`tg ba tlg c`w ba tlg Zgbpcg‟s N`de ba Flod`(ZNbF). Xb `flogvg tlgsg hu`c pbcofy bnmgftovgs, tlg kbdgt`ry ùtlbroty k`y usgv`robus pbcofy odstrukgdts sufl `s rgsgrvg rgquorgkgdt r`tobs, fgdtr`c n`de ngdflk`recgdhodi `dh hgpbsot odtgrgst r`tgs, rg-hosfbudtodi, fgdtr`c n`de cgdhodi, bpgd k`regtbpgr`tobds, `dh btlgr `hkodostr`tovg br wodhbw iuoh`dfg kg`surgs. Ylgd pursuodipbcofy k`dh`tgs, tlg kbdgt`ry ùtlbroty gdfbudtgrs sbkg pr`ftof`c fbdstròdts. Iovgdtlg cgss hgvgcbpgh aod`dfo`c k`regts, ot `csb l`s tlg rgspbdsonocoty tb prbkbtg aod`dfo`ck`regt congr`coz`tobd `dh rgabrks.

Ot k`y ng `riugh tl`t tlg Z^F‟s ùtlbroty `ppcogs nbtl qu`dtoty `dh profg odstrukgdtstb fbdhuft kbdgt`ry pbcofy wlocg ngodi fbdstròdgh ny tlg cgss gaaofogdt aod`dfo`csystgk. Cùrgds `dh Kòdb (>::9) hgsfrong tlg prbfgss ba sgttodi tlg kbdgt`ry pbcofy

ar`kgwbre od tlg Z^F od tlg abccbwodi w`y= tlg kbdgt`ry ùtlbroty aorst sgts dukgrof`ct`rigts abr tlg qu`dtoty ba kbdgy suppcy `dh frghot irbwtl `s ots odtgrkgho`tg qu`dtotyt`rigts `t tlg ngioddodi ba g`fl yg`r, `dh tlgd kbdotbrs tlgsg odtgrkgho`tg t`rigtsfcbsgcy hurodi tlg fbursg ba tlg yg`r `dh aodg-tudgs hgvo`tobds arbk tlgsg t`rigts ny `dukngr ba pbcofy odstrukgdts sufl `s rgsgrvg rgquorgkgdts, bpgd k`regt bpgr`tobds,pbcofy odtgrgst r`tgs, `dh wodhbw iuoh`dfg kg`surgs. Cou `dh ]l`di (>:0:) `riughtl`t tlg usg ba slbrt-tgrk odtgrgst r`tgs `cbdg wbuch ng od`hgqu`tg od tlg Z^F, hug tbtlg wgè odtgrgst-r`tg tr`dskossobd fl`ddgc, p`rtcy rgacgftodi tlg hbkod`dfg ba st`tg-bwdgh fbkkgrfo`c n`des wotl ` pgdfl`dt tb cgdh tb st`tg-bwdgh gdtgrprosgs (VBGs).Xlgy `csb hgkbdstr`tgh tl`t dgotlgr ` st`dh`rh X`ycbr rucg (X`ycbr 0??6) dbr ` qu`dtotyba kbdgy rucg od tlg sporot ba KfF`ccuk (0? irbwtl wgcc. Ew`d (>:06) gstok`tgh tlg X`ycbr rucg abr tlg Z^F hurodi tlg pbst-

Cglk`d pgrobh `dh abudh tl`t tlg odtgrgst r`tg pbcofy hoh dbt pc`y ` rbcg od st`nocozoditlg Z^F's k`frb gfbdbky. Bd tlg btlgr l`dh, A`d, _u, `dh ]l`di (>:00) abudh tl`ttlg KfF`ccuk rucg w`s `ncg tb gxpcòd tlg kbvgkgdt ba rg`c kbdgy suppcy wgcc.

Od tlos sgftobd, wg `ttgkpt tb ohgdtoay tlg Z^F‟s kbdgt`ry pbcofy rucg `dh gx`kodgwlgtlgr tlg rucg tl`t usgh tb wbre wgcc udhgr tlg roioh f`pot`c fbdtrbc systgk l`sngfbkg cbbsg `dh odfrg`sodicy fbdstròdgh ny ots bwd gxfl`dig r`tg rgiokg `dh/brgxtgrd`c kbdgt`ry hgvgcbpkgdts.00 Oa wg aodh tl`t ` k`mbr kbdgt`ry pbcofy odstrukgdt,sufl `s tlg pbcofy odtgrgst r`tg `dh irbwtl ba kbdgt`ry ìirgi`tgs, w`s usghsuffgssauccy tb `flogvg hbkgstof pbcofy bnmgftovgs (profg st`nocoty `dh gfbdbkof irbwtl)wotlbut ngodi soidoaof`dtcy fbdstròdgh ny abrgoid kbdgt`ry pbcofy fl`digs br ots bwdgxfl`dig r`tg rgiokg, tlgd wg f`d fbdfcuhg tl`t tlg Z^F ùtlbroty rgtòds kbdgt`ry

pbcofy ùtbdbky. @dh oa tlg pbcofy odstrukgdt os odacugdfgh ny tlg abrgoid odtgrgst r`tg(od tlg f`sg ba tlg pbcofy odtgrgst r`tg `s ` pbcofy odstrukgdt) br ny tlg p`fg ba abrgoidgxfl`dig rgsgrvg `ffukuc`tobd (od tlg f`sg ba tlg irbwtl ba kbdgt`ry ìirgi`tgs `s `pbcofy odstrukgdt) r`tlgr tl`d ny tlg fbdsohgr`tobd ba hbkgstof gfbdbkof st`nocoz`tobd,wg f`d fbdfcuhg tl`t tlg Z^F ùtlbroty hbgs dbt l`vg pbcofy ùtbdbky.

00 Yg hb tlos hgspotg tlg fcòk k`hg ny tlg ZNbF tl`t tlg kbdgt`ry ùtlbroty l`s kuctopcg pbcofy t`rigts

(sufl `s gkpcbykgdt, profg st`nocoty, n`c`dfg ba p`ykgdts, `dh prbkbtodi aod`dfo`c rgabrk) `dh tl`tdgotlgr profg-n`sgh (odtgrgst r`tg) rucg dbr qu`dtoty-n`sgh (kbdgy suppcy) rucg os suot`ncg tb tlg Z^F.

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1.> Gkporof`c Kbhgcs abr Xgstodi Kbdgt`ry Zbcofy @utbdbky

Vlbrt-tgrk odtgrgst r`tg `s ` pbcofy odstrukgdt

Aorst, abccbwodi Otb `dh E`wò (>:08), wg prbpbsg usodi tlg abccbwodi gqu`tobds tb tgst

tlg Z^F‟s kbdgt`ry pbcofy ùtbdbky=

t t t uoo ++; *

:: ξ ΰ (8)

t t t yt v yo +++; ϊ ρ ρ ρ ϊ ~~

::: (7)

,~~ 00*

00 t t t yt t w yoo ++++; ϊ ρ ρ ξ ΰ ϊ (1)

wlgrg t o os tlg pbcofy odtgrgst r`tg tlg Z^F ùtlbroty sgts `dh*

t o os tlg WV hbcc`r

Cbdhbd Odtgrn`de Baagrgh ^`tg (CONB^).0> Od tlg X`ycbr rucg ba gqu`tobd (7),t y

~ os tlg

irbwtl r`tg ba odhustro`c prbhuftobd `dht ϊ

~ os tlg odac`tobd i`p, o.g., tlg hoaagrgdfg

ngtwggd tlg `ftu`c `dh t`rigt odac`tobd r`tgs.06

Gqu`tobd (1) os ` fbknod`tobd bagqu`tobds (8) `dh (7).

Otb `dh E`wò (>:08) tlgd usg tlg bvgr`cc gstok`tobd pgrabrk`dfg ba gqu`tobds (8), (7),`dh (1) tb muhig tlg hgirgg ba kbdgt`ry pbcofy ùtbdbky. Oa tlg Z^F‟s kbdgt`ry pbcofy

fcbsgcy abccbws tlg kbdgt`ry pbcofy ba tlg n`sg fbudtry, tlg fbgaaofogdt : ξ os

soidoaof`dtcy pbsotovg `dh fcbsg tb udoty `dh tlg ibbhdgss ba aot ba gqu`tobd (8) os loil. Odtlos f`sg, tlg Z^F l`s db kbdgt`ry pbcofy ùtbdbky. Oa tlg Z^F ùtlbroty abccbws tlg

X`ycbr rucg tb `flogvg hbkgstof bnmgftovgs, tlgd :: ≧ yρ , :: ≧ϊ ρ , `dh tlg ibbhdgss ba

aot ba gqu`tobd (7) os loil. Od tlos f`sg tlg Z^F ùtlbroty l`s aucc kbdgt`ry pbcofyùtbdbky. Ylgd tlg ùtlbroty abccbws nbtl tlg abrgoid odtgrgst r`tg `dh hbkgstof

bnmgftovgs, tlgd :0 ≧

ξ , :0 ≧ yρ , :0

≧ϊ ρ , `dh tlg ibbhdgss ba aot ba gqu`tobd (1) os loil.

Od tlos f`sg, tlg Z^F ùtlbroty l`s sbkg, nut dbt aucc, kbdgt`ry pbcofy ùtbdbky. Ygdggh tb p`y `ttgdtobd tb tlg soids `dh st`tostof`c soidoaof`dfg ba tlg gstok`tghfbgaaofogdts `s wgcc `s tlg sozg ba tlg `hmustgh ^-squ`rgh od muhiodi tlg hgirgg bakbdgt`ry pbcofy ùtbdbky.

0> Otb `dh E`wò (>:08) usg

*

t o abr tlg sydtlgtof abrgoid odtgrgst r`tg arbk tlg pbodt ba vogw ba ` fbudtry,

wlofl os tlg wgoiltgh `vgrìg ba tlg abrgoid odtgrgst r`tgs, wotl tlg wgoilts ngodi gstok`tgh arbk tlgAr`degc `dh Ygo (0??8) kbhgc. Iovgd tl`t tlg ^KN gxfl`dig r`tg l`s `ssoidgh ` wgoilt ba bvgr ?8%tb tlg WV hbcc`r, wg usg tlg WV hbcc`r CONB^ `s tlg abrgoid odtgrgst r`tg.

06 Xlg X`ycbr gqu`tobd typof`ccy odfcuhgs tlg IHZ i`p, o.g., tlg hoaagrgdfg ngtwggd `ftu`c IHZ `dhpbtgdto`c IHZ `s wgcc `s tlg odac`tobd r`tg i`p bd tlg roilt-l`dh sohg ba gqu`tobd (7). Bdg koilt `riugtl`t tlg roilt-l`dh sohg ba tlg gqu`tobd slbuch `csb odfcuhg tlg gxfl`dig r`tg i`p, od tlg f`sg ba tlgZ^F, `s tlg fbudtry l`s nggd st`nocozodi tlg gxfl`dig r`tg. Yg sokpcoay bur `d`cysos ny oidbrodi tlospbssonocoty. @s IHZ h`t` `rg `vòc`ncg `t kbst bd ` qu`rtgrcy n`sos, ots usg wbuch cokot tlg dukngr babnsgrv`tobds od bur s`kpcg. Xlus, wg l`vg hgfohgh tb usg tlg kbdtlcy irbwtl r`tg ba odhustro`c

prbhuftobd od gstok`todi gqu`tobds (7) `dh (1) `s tlos wbuch `ccbw us tb l`vg ` c`rigr dukngr babnsgrv`tobds.

>7


28/41


Kbdgt`ry ìirgi`tgs `s ` pbcofy odstrukgdt

Yg dgxt fbdsohgr tlg pbssonocoty tl`t kbdgt`ry ìirgi`tgs, r`diodi arbk d`rr bw tbnrb`h hgaodotobds ba tlg kbdgy suppcy (K:, K0, `dh K>), `rg usgh `s pbcofy tbbcs. 08 Abrtlos purpbsg, wg fbdsohgr tlg abccbwodi tlrgg gqu`tobds=

t t t A\^ A\^ K K η ζ · +∁+;∁ // :: (9)

t t t yt y K K λ ϊ μ μ μ ϊ +++;∁ ~~/ :::

(, `dh hgpbsots ba tlg Lbusodi ZrbvohgdtAudh K`dìgkgdt Fgdtgr, `dh hgpbsots ba dbd-hgpbsot`ry aod`dfo`c odstotutobds od hgpbsotbry aod`dfo`codstotutobds od Bftbngr >:00. Ot os dbtgh tl`t K: os ` d`rrbwgr fbdfgpt ba kbdgy suppcy tl`d tlgkbdgt`ry n`sg.

07 Od los abrkuc`tobd, KfF`ccuk (0?1


29/41


odstrukgdt. Oa wg aodh gvohgdfg tl`t tlg Z^F‟s kbdgt`ry pbcofy abccbwgh tlg X`ycbr rucgod g`rcogr yg`rs nut dbt `s fcbsgcy od c`tgr yg`rs, wg k`y fbdfcuhg tl`t kbdgt`ry pbcofyùtbdbky l`s hokodoslgh. Dgxt, wg tgst kbdgt`ry pbcofy ùtbdbky ny gx`kododigqu`tobds (9), (:::00, >:0>, `dh>:06 bd udgxpgftgh sloats od tlg tokg sgrogs, abr wlofl tlg A-st`tostofs `rg c`rigr tl`dtlg frotof`c v`cugs. Hukky v`ro`ncgs wgrg `hhgh tb tlg aorst hoaagrgdfg vgrsobd bagqu`tobd (8) tb tèg odtb `ffbudt tl`t k`mbr gvgdts k`y l`vg fùsgh struftur`c nrgès`dh àagftgh tlg odtgrgst r`tg pbcofy flbofgs.01 Lbwgvgr, tlg rgsucts l`vg dbt odhof`tghkufl hoaagrgdfg.

Xlg rgirgssobd rgsucts ba tlg aorst-hoaagrgdfg vgrsobd ba gqu`tobd (8) abr tlg twb slbrt-

tgrk odtgrgst r`tgs (9-h`y rgpb `dh 9-h`y FLONB^) `rg sukk`rozgh od X`ncg >. Ygsgp`r`tg tlg s`kpcg (Bftbngr >::8‖Bftbngr >:08 od tlg f`sg ba tlg 9-h`y rgpb, `dhVgptgkngr >::0‖Vgptgkngr >:08 od tlg f`sg ba tlg 9-h`y FLONB^) odtb twbsunpgrobhs‘tl`t os, tlg pgrobh ngabrg tlg IAF `dh tlg pgrobh àtgr‘tb fbdsohgr tlgsoidoaof`dt fl`digs od tlg icbn`c aod`dfo`c gdvorbdkgdt.

01 Xlg WV Agh‟s qu`dtot`tovg g`sodi tègs tlg v`cug ba 0 hurodi tlg pgrobh Dbvgkngr >:::08 (o.g., PG6 wocc gdh od Bftbngr >:08, `ffbrhodi tb tlg Aghgr`c Bpgd K`regt Fbkkottgg‟s Bftbngr>:08 kggtodi).

>9


30/41


X`ncg >= Gstok`tobd ba tlg Vlbrt-tgrk Odtgrgst ^`tg ba tlg Zgbpcg‟s ^gpuncof baFlod` Wsodi tlg Abrgoid Odtgrgst ^`tg

t o∁

(9-h`y rgpb r`tg)t o∁

(9-h`y FLONB^)

V`kpcg pgrobh Bft >::8‖Bft >:08

Bft >::8‖Hgf >::<

M`d >::?‖Bft >:08

Vgp >::0‖Vgp >:08

Vgp >::0‖Hgf >::<

M`d >::?‖Vgp >:08

*

t o∁

:.080**(:.0:


31/41


Cbbeodi `t tlg 9-h`y rgpb r`tg, od tlg prg-IAF pgrobh (Bftbngr >::8‖Hgfgkngr >:: wlgrg tlg Z^F‟s pbcofy r`tg w`s dbt àagftgh ny tlg WV CONB^ r`tgod tlg prg-IAF pgrobh.

Od tlg pbst-IAF pgrobh, tlg gstok`tgh fbgaaofogdt ba odhustro`c prbhuftobd irbwtl l`sngfbkg st`tostof`ccy odsoidoaof`dt (tlbuil tlg fbgaaofogdt bd tlg odac`tobd r`tg rgkòdsst`tostof`ccy soidoaof`dt `dh pbsotovg). Xlos kg`ds tl`t tlg Z^F‟s kbdgt`ry pbcofy l`srgspbdhgh tb tlg odac`tobd r`tg i`p nut dbt tb rg`c gfbdbkof `ftovoty. Ot `ppg`rs tl`t tlgZ^F‟s kbdgt`ry ùtlbroty abccbwgh tlg X`ycbr rucg od tlg prg-IAF pgrobh, wlocg bdcyp`rto`ccy abccbwodi tlg X`ycbr rucg od tlg pbst-IAF pgrobh.09

Xlg rgsucts abr tlg FLONB^ `rg c`rigcy tlg s`kg `s tlbsg abr tlg 9-h`y rgpb r`tg.

X`ncg 6= Gstok`tobd ba tlg X`ycbr ûcg

t o∁

(9-h`y rgpb)t o∁

(9-h`y FLONB^)

V`kpcg pgrobhBft >::8‖Vgp >:08

Bft >::8‖Hgf >::<

M`d >::?‖Vgp >:08

Vgp >::0‖Vgp >:08

Vgp >::0‖Hgf >::<

M`d >::?‖Vgp >:08

t y~ :.:1):.:?0***(:.:86)

:.:61(:.6>8)

:.:71***(:.:>:)

:.:88***(:.:6:)

:.116***(:.:::)

:.6)

Db. ba bnsgrv`tobds 0>: 70 1? 079 ***(:.:66)

81.7:0***(:.:::)

61.


32/41


odhof`tg tl`t tlgrg os ` cgss suppbrt abr tlg X`ycbr rucg od tlg pbst-IAF pgrobh tl`d odtlg prg-IAF pgrobh.

Xlg rgsucts abr tlg 9-h`y rgpb r`tg `rg cgss fcg`r, nut hb dbt suiigst rosodi kbdgt`rypbcofy ùtbdbky od tlg pbst-IAF pgrobh.

Xlg bvgr`cc rgsucts abr gqu`tobd (1) ìòd suppbrt tlg vogw tl`t tlg Z^F‟s kbdgt`rypbcofy w`s kbrg ùtbdbkbus od tlg prg-IAF pgrobh `dh tl`t ot l`s ngfbkg cgss sb odtlg pbst-IAF pgrobh.

X`ncg 8= Gstok`tobd ba tlg Lynroh X`ycbr ûcg

t o∁

(9-h`y rgpb)t o∁

(9-h`y FLONB^)

V`kpcg pgrobhHgf >::8‖Vgp >:08

Hgf >::8‖Hgf >::<

M`d >::?‖Vgp >:08

Vgp >::0‖Vgp >:08

Vgp >::0‖Hgf >::<

M`d >::?‖Vgp >:08

*

t o∁ :.09:***(:.:0?)

‖:.:?8(:.8:0)

‖:.:>6(:.>6***(:.:09)

:.:66(:.69:)

‖:.>>0(:.609)

t y~ :.:1>***(:.:89)

:.0:1***(:.:6:)

:.:>9(:.817)

:.:7:***(:.:69)

:.:8:**(:.:10)

:.:6:(:.87:)

t ϊ ~ :.807***

(:.:::):.00<

(:.0


33/41


yg`r irbwtl ba K:, K0, br K>.0)

V`kpcg pgrobhBft >::8‖Vgp >:08

Bft >::8‖Vgp >::?

Bft >:::08

Bft >::8‖Vgp >:08

Bft >::8‖Dbv >::<

Hgf >:::08

Bft >::8‖Vgp >:08

Bft >::8‖Vgp >::<

Bft >:::08

t A\^ A\^ /∁ :.0>: 8< 9>

M-st`tostofZrbn (M-st`ts)

08.880(:.:::)

7.89?(:.:0?)

1.861(:.:00)

:.667(:.716)

(:.::8)

:.?6?(:.66>)

98)

00.?:7(:.::0)

@hmustgh^-squ`rgh

‖:.:: ‖:.:7? ‖:.91? :.010 ‖:.:?7 ‖:.0:> :.:??

Dbtgs= Gstok`tobd abccbws tlg igdgr`cozgh kgtlbh ba kbkgdts prbfghurg. Xlg v`cugs od p`rgdtlgsgs `rg p-v`cugs. ** ; 7% cgvgc ba st`tostof`c soidoaof`dfg, *** ; 0% cgvgc ba st`tostof`c soidoaof d̀fg.

Vburfg= @utlbrs‟ fbkput`tobds.

KfF`ccuk-coeg rucg gstok`tobd

Yg dgxt gx`kodg wlgtlgr tlg KfF`ccuk-coeg rucg gxpcòds kbdgt`ry pbcofy od tlg Z^F.Xlg KfF`ccuk-coeg rucg st`tgs tl`t tlg qu`dtoty ba kbdgy sgt ny tlg ùtlbroty rg`ftsdgi`tovgcy tb fl`digs od odhustro`c prbhuftobd `dh tlg odac`tobd r`tg i`p. Gqu`tobd ( od tlg pbst-IAF pgrobh.Aorst, K: l`h ` soidoaof`dtcy dgi`tovg rgspbdsg tb butput irbwtl `dh ` soidoaof`dtcypbsotovg rgspbdsg tb tlg odac`tobd r`tg i`p (od fbdtr`st tb tlg prghoftobd ba tlgKfF`ccuk-coeg rucg) od tlg prg-IAF pgrobh, wlocg ot hoh dbt rgspbdh soidoaof`dtcy tbhbkgstof gfbdbkof fbdhotobds od tlg pbst-IAF pgrobh. Vgfbdh, K0 l`h ` soidoaof`dtcypbsotovg rgspbdsg tb butput irbwtl (od fbdtr`st tb tlg prghoftobd ba tlg KfF`ccuk-coegrucg) `dh ` st`tostof`ccy odsoidoaof`dt rgspbdsg tb tlg odac`tobd r`tg i`p od tlg prg-IAF

0<

Yg usg yg`r-bd-yg`r irbwtl tb `vboh tlg prbncgk ba dbd-st`tobd`roty `s kbdgt`ry ìirgi`tg v`ro`ncgs`dh abrgoid gxfl`dig rgsgrvgs `rg usu`ccy dbd-st`tobd`ry.

60


34/41


pgrobh, wlocg ot hoh dbt rgspbdh tb hbkgstof gfbdbkof fbdhotobds hurodi tlg pbst-IAFpgrobh.

Aod`ccy, od tlg f`sg ba K>, tlg KfF`ccuk-coeg rucg sggks tb ng bnsgrvgh od tlg pbst-IAF pgrobh, nut dbt od tlg prg-IAF pgrobh. Xl`t os, K> rgspbdhgh pbsotovgcy tb butput

irbwtl (od fbdtr`st tb tlg prghoftobd) `dh dgi`tovgcy tb tlg odac`tobd r`tg i`p od tlg prg-IAF pgrobh, wlocg ot rgspbdhgh dgi`tovgcy tb nbtl butput irbwtl `dh tlg odac`tobd r`tgi`p (`s gxpgftgh ny tlg KfF`ccuk-coeg rucg) od tlg pbst-IAF pgrobh. Xlus, wg l`vgkoxgh rgsucts bd kbdgt`ry pbcofy ùtbdbky od tlg pbst-IAF pgrobh. Yg bnsgrvg dbgvohgdfg ba pbcofy ùtbdbky n`sgh bd K: br K0, nut wg bnsgrvg sbkg gvohgdfg barosodi pbcofy ùtbdbky n`sgh bd K>.

X`ncg 1= Gstok`tobd ba tlg KfF`ccuk-coeg ûcg

(K:) (K0) (K>)

V`kpcg

pgrobh

Hgf 0??9‖

Vgp >:08

Hgf 0??9‖

Vgp >::<

Bft >:::08

K`r 0??9‖

Vgp >:08

K`r 0??9‖

Vgp >::<

Bft >:::08

K`r 0??9‖

Vgp >:08

K`r 0??9‖

Vgp >::<

Bft >:::08

t y~ ‖:.7>>

(:.>80) ‖:.?>:*(:.08?)

‖:.>17(:.900)

‖:.6)

‖:.>>0(:.67):.17)

:.016(:.1101(:.678)

‖:.9:?(:.7:?)

‖:.978***(:.:::)

‖:.6)

Fbdst`dt 00.167***(:.:::)

00.71>***(:.:::)

00.***(:.:::)

07.01>***(:.:::)

07.116***(:.:::)

06.>8?***(:.:::)

01.969***(:.:::)

01.69:> 06: 9> >00 06? 9> >00 06? 9>

A-st`tostof>..>6?(:.000)

0.:91(:.681)

:.6::(:.980)

07.6<(:.:::)

6.661(:.:80)

>>.:07***(:.:::)

60.?0:(:.:::)

>9. :.:1> :.019 :.6:? :.860

Dbtgs= Xlg v`cugs od p`rgdtlgsgs `rg p-v`cugs. ** ; 7% cgvgc ba st`tostof`c soidoaof`dfg, *** ; 0% cgvgc bast`tostof`c soidoaof`dfg.

Vburfg= @utlbrs‟ fbkput`tobds.

Xlg gstok`tobd rgsucts ba gqu`tobd (?) suiigst tl`t tlg Z^F‟s kbdgt`ry ìirgi`tgv`ro`ncg hoh dbt rgspbdh tb hbkgstof gfbdbkof fbdhotobds, nut hoh rgspbdh pbsotovgcy`dh soidoaof`dtcy tb abrgoid `ssgts purfl`sgh od tlg pbst-IAF pgrobh (X`ncg 9). Aorst,K: rgspbdhgh dgi`tovgcy tb abrgoid gxfl`dig rgsgrvg `ffukuc`tobd `dh dgi`tovgcy tbbutput irbwtl od tlg prg-IAF pgrobh, wlocg ot rgspbdhgh pbsotovgcy tb abrgoid gxfl`digrgsgrvgs `dh tlg odac`tobd r`tg i`p (od fbdtr`st tb tlg prghoftobd ba tlg KfF`ccuk-coeg

rucg) od tlg pbst-IAF pgrobh. Vgfbdh, tlg rgsucts abr K0 `dh K> `rg sokoc`r. Xl`t os, K0`dh K> rgspbdhgh dgi`tovgcy tb abrgoid gxfl`dig rgsgrvgs `dh pbsotovgcy tb butputirbwtl (od fbdtr`st tb tlg prghoftobd ba tlg rucg) od tlg prg-IAF pgrobh. Xlgy rgspbdhghpbsotovgcy tb abrgoid gxfl`dig rgsgrvgs `dh butput irbwtl (od fbdtr`st tb tlg prghoftobdba tlg rucg), nut dgi`tovgcy tb tlg odac`tobd r`tg i`p (`s gxpgftgh ny tlg rucg) od tlg pbst-IAF pgrobh.

Xlus tlg KfF`ccuk-coeg rucg gxpcòds tlg Z^F‟s kbdgt`ry pbcofy ngl`vobr n`sgh bd K:bdcy k`riod`ccy od tlg prg-IAF pgrobh, nut dbt od tlg pbst-IAF pgrobh. Xlg KfF`ccuk-coeg rucg gxpcòds tlg K> ngl`vobr bdcy p`rto`ccy od tlg pbst-IAF pgrobh. Lbwgvgr, tlgrgos strbdi gvohgdfg tl`t tlg Z^F‟s kbdgt`ry pbcofy od tlg pbst-IAF pgrobh os pbsotovgcyàagftgh ny abrgoid gxfl`dig rgsgrvgs, wlgtlgr K:, K0, br K> os usgh. Xlus, tlgrg os

dbt kufl gvohgdfg ba odfrg`sodi kbdgt`ry pbcofy ùtbdbky od tlg pbst-IAF pgrobhrgc`tovg tb tlg prg-IAF pgrobh, gvgd wlgd K> os usgh.

t K K /∁ t K K /∁ t K K /∁

6>


35/41


X`ncg 9= Gstok`tobd ba tlg Lynroh KfF`ccuk-coeg ^ucg

(K:) (K0) (K>)

V`kpcg pgrobhDbv >::8‖Vgp >:08

Dbv >::8‖Bft >::<

Bft >:::08

Dbv >::8‖Vgp >:08

M`d >::8‖Bft >::<

Bft >:::08

Dbv >::8‖Vgp >:08

M`d >::8‖Bft >::<

Bft >:::08

t A\^ A\^ /∁ :.0:) ‖:.9***(:.:01)

:.:


36/41


9.0 Irg`tgr Gxfl`dig ^`tg Acgxonocoty

Xb fbpg wotl tlg trocgkk` fbdstròdt, tlg aorst probroty os tb `hhrgss tlg roioh gxfl`digr`tg systgk. Xl`t os, tlg Z^F kust `hbpt ` kbrg acgxoncg gxfl`dig r`tg rgiokg od

brhgr tb rgiòd pbcofy ùtbdbky. @t tlos stìg, tlg Z^F‟s f`pot`c fbdtrbc rgiokg osudgvgdcy gdabrfgh. F`pot`c odacbws l`vg l`h cokotgh fbdtrbcs wlocg f`pot`c butacbws `rgstocc udhgr sgvgrg rgstroftobds. Xlgrgabrg, c`rig odtgrgst r`tg hoaagrgdto`cs wotl sk`ccgxfl`dig r`tg vbc`tocoty l`vg `ttr`ftgh c`rig f`pot`c odacbws, wlofl l`vg abrfgh tlgùtlbroty tb gdiìg od c`rigr furrgdfy k`regt odtgrvgdtobds `dh `ffukuc`tg abrgoidgxfl`dig rgsgrvgs. @ bdg-w`y ngt bd tlg ^KN‟s fbdtodugh `pprgfo`tobd l`s cgh tbgvgd c`rigr f`pot`c odacbws. Abr tlos purpbsg, tlg ùtlbroty k`y gdc`rig tlg ^KN‖WVhbcc`r tr`hodi n`dh aurtlgr sb `s tb a`focot`tg irg`tgr gxfl`dig r`tg acgxonocoty.

Aurtlgrkbrg, tb baasgt gxfl`dig k`regt prgssurg hug tb f`pot`c odacbws, tlg Z^Fùtlbrotogs kust gdfburìg f`pot`c butacbws. Xlos fbuch ng `flogvgh ny `ccbwodi prov`tgaorks `dh rgsohgdts tb odvgst `nrb`h usodi nbtl tlg ^KN `dh abrgoid furrgdfogs,p`rtofuc`rcy tlg WV hbcc`r. Xlg twb-w`y acbw ba f`pot`c wocc d`tur`ccy cg`h tb irg`tgrvbc`tocoty ba tlg ^KN gxfl`dig r`tg ìòdst k`mbr furrgdfogs.

9.> @ Vlbrt-tgrk Zbcofy Odtgrgst ^`tg abr tlg Zgbpcg‟s ^gpuncofba Flod`

@s tlg Z^F‟s cgdhodi `dh hgpbsot r`tgs `rg ngfbkodi odfrg`sodicy congr`cozgh hg a`ftb,tlg kbdgt`ry ùtlbroty kust flbbsg ` slbrt-tgrk ngdflk`re odtgrgst r`tg `s ots pbcofyodstrukgdt `dh lgcp frg`tg ` k`regt-hrovgd yogch strufturg ba odtgrgst r`tgs. Xlgùtlbroty f`d f`rry but ots kbdgt`ry pbcofy ny `hmustodi ots slbrt-tgrk pbcofy odtgrgst r`tg`dh gkpcbyodi ` dgw slbrt-tgrk coquohoty a`focoty. Xlos pbcofy r`tg wocc ng usgh `s tlgn`sos abr n`des tb sgt rgagrgdfg r`tgs, wlofl tlgd wocc ng usgh tb profg aod`dfo`c

hgrov`tovgs `dh prbhufts. @ffbrhodi tb tlg N`de abr Odtgrd`tobd`c Vgttcgkgdts (NOV>:06), rgagrgdfg r`tgs n`sgh bd udsgfurgh odtgrn`de tgrk cgdhodi `dh nbrrbwodi `rgtlg hbkod`dt typgs ba rgagrgdfg r`tgs usgh od tlg wbrch. NOV abudh tl`t=

• Kbrg tl`d 7:% ba `cc sydhof`tgh cb`ds soidgh od >:00 wgrg codegh tb gotlgr tlgCONB^ br tlg Gurb Odtgrn`de Baagrgh ^`tg (GWÔNB^).

• @ c̀ rig pbrtobd ba nbdhs od tlg wbrch‘tb tlg tudg ba `t cg`st $0: troccobd‘wgrgrgagrgdfgh tb bdg ba tlgsg twb r`tgs.

• @ soidoaof`dt sl`rg ba kbrtiìgs `dh btlgr rgtòc cb`ds wgrg codegh tb tlgk, `dhtlg usg ba tlgsg rgagrgdfg r`tgs od hgrov`tovgs k`regts w`s `csb wohgsprg`h.

Abr fgdtr`c n`des, tlg rgagrgdfg r`tg (sufl `s tlg bvgrdoilt r`tg) `csb sgrvgs `s `d

bpgr`tobd`c t`rigt. Hoaagrgdt arbk tlg `ftu`c pbcofy r`tg, tlos bpgr`tobd`c t`rigt os usgh tbiuohg kbdgt`ry pbcofy. Ot os `d okpbrt`dt fbkpbdgdt ba tlg kbdgt`ry pbcofytr`dskossobd kgfl`dosk ngfùsg tlg fgdtr`c n`de f`d odacugdfg tlg aod`dfo`c systgktlrbuil tlg rgagrgdfg r`tg `dh tlgd àagft odtgrgst r`tgs abr cb`ds, kbdgy k`regt r`tgs,`dh odtgrgst r`tg hgrov`tovgs. Xlgrgabrg, tlg Z^F‟s kbdgt`ry ùtlbroty slbuch wbrefcbsgcy wotl k`regt p`rtofop`dts `dh rgvogw tlg rgagrgdfg r`tg sgttodi prbfgss.

Ngabrg tlg CONB^ sf`dh`c, tlg VLONB^ w`s fbdsohgrgh ` d`tur`c f`dhoh`tg abr tlgrgagrgdfg r`tg abr tlg Z^F. @s tlg VLONB^ os `d odtgrgst r`tg tl`t p`rtofop`todi n`desrgpbrt nut hb dbt l`vg tb tr`ds`ft usodi tlg rgpbrtgh r`tgs, tlg systgk fbuch cg`h tb tlgbvgr aoxodi br udhgr aoxodi ba tlg rgagrgdfg r`tg, gspgfo`ccy od ` strgssgh gdvorbdkgdt.Vufl prbncgks fbuch cg`h tb ` cbss ba k`regt fbdaohgdfg od tlg VLONB^. @s ` rgsuct,

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tlg rgpb r`tg l`s ngfbkg ` kbrg vo`ncg `ctgrd`tovg abr tlg Z^F‟s auturg rgagrgdfg r`tg(X`ncg 0-h`y, 0-kbdtl, >-kbdtl, 6-kbdtl, 8-kbdtl, 1-kbdtl, ?-kbdtl, 0-yg`r

Frghot Codg Dggh tb sgt up frghot codg Db dggh tb sgt up frghot codg^ose Frghot rose ^ose-argg, sgfurgh tr`ds`ftobdFbcc`tgr`c Frghot-n`sgh Ibvgrdkgdt nbdhs, ZNbF noccs, `dh frghot nbdhs

ZNbF ; Zgbpcg‟s N`de ba Flod`, VLONB

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Trilemma Challenges for the People's Republic of China