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Climate Neutral Leadership
Global Living Project
Climate Targets
• 80% reduction by 2050• 350 PPM carbon• Carbon neutrality• Energy independent in 10 years• Kyoto -- 7% below 1990 by 2012
Target atmospheric CO2: Where should humanity aim?
• If humanity wishes to preserve a planet similar to that on which civilization developed and to which life on Earth is adapted, paleoclimate evidence and ongoing climate change suggest that CO2 will need to be reduced from its current 385 ppm to at most 350 ppm.
• heads the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies [1]
• Adjunct Professor in the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia University .
All US electricity to be made renewable within 10 years
• “Enough solar energy falls on the surface of the earth every 40 minutes to meet 100 percent of the entire world's energy needs for a full year.”
• "And enough wind power blows through the Midwest corridor every day to also meet 100 percent of US electricity demand.”
• “Geothermal energy, similarly, is capable of providing enormous supplies of electricity for America."
80% Reduction by 2050
Scientists, nations and US politicians
588 Campuses Signed ON To Become Carbon Neutral
The American College & University Presidents Climate Commitment
“…no longer than a decade, at the most…,” Dr. James Hansen
Fred R. Conrad/The New York Times
Heads the NASA Institute for Space Studies in New York City
• Warming Is “unequivocal”
• Widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global mean sea level
• Carbon dioxide and methane “exceeds by far the natural range over the last 650,000 years”
IPCC Fourth Assessment
Species are moving poles-ward at about four miles per decade.
“Isotherms” are moving pole-ward at about thirty-five miles per decade.
In Greenland annual icequakes: doubled in the late 1990sdoubled again by 2005
meltwater descends through crevasses to the ice sheet base
lubrication increases the movement of the ice sheet
the discharge of giant icebergs
Might we:
• Loose maple syrup?
• Get deer tics?
Iraqi Deaths Related to War
• 654,965 excess deaths related to the war, or 2.5% of the population, through the end of June 2006.
– Published in The Lancet, one of the oldest peer-reviewed medical journals founded in 1823.
Iraqi Infant Mortality(under 1)
• 40 in 1990 • 102 in 2005
Over 200 species go extinct every day
1000 times faster than natural rate
$113 B additional to restore Earth
Lester Brown
Plan B 3.0
Experience in voting for the Environment
McCain -- 0 percent in 2007 24 percent life time
Obama -- 67% in 2007 86% lifetime.
League of Conservation Voters
Radical Disparity
Wealthiest Billion
$70 per day
Poorest Billion
$0.25 per day
Global Gap = 250:1 and growing
Inter-human equity
Alternatives to $700 Billion spending on war or bailouts
• $700 Billion would double incomes of poorest billion for seven years
We are alive at a unique time!
Exponential Growth of Population and ConsumerismIPAT
What will we do about it?
Severe addiction
Swami Youdhoneedhacara
The primary factors that drive impactare in our control. (IPAT)
Impact=P x A x T
• A – Affluence. How much we consume.
• P – Population. How many children we have.
• T– Technology. How efficiently we employ tools.
How are campuses taking leadership?
Cash Flow for implementing Carbon Neutrality at UCSB
$1 Million/yr. Positive Cash Flow
QuickTime™ and aTIFF (LZW) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Sorted by payback
UCSB
• 14,000 people commute to UCSB by bicycle each day school
• Students living within 2 miles of campus not eligible to purchase parking permits
• AS BIKES $88,000 annual budget
QuickTime™ and aTIFF (LZW) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
UNH COGEN Plant
• Will save estimated $20 million over 20 years.
• Reduced GHG 21% 2005 vs. 2006
UNH Landfill Gas -- EcoLine
• 12.7 mile underground pipeline• Will reduce the GHG an estimated:
– 67 percent below 2005 levels– 57 percent below 1990 levels.
• Will provide 80-85% of campus energy & sell excess to grid by mid-2009.
Cornell Lake Source Cooling
• Replaced over 40,000 pounds of CFC refrigerants.
• Saves approximately 25,000,000 kilowatt-hours of electricity each year.
• Reduced electricity demand by 10%.
• Reduced GHG by 37 tons/year of SO2, 16 tons/year of NOx, and 11,000 tons/year of CO2.
COA achieves carbon neutralityMaine college reduces and offsets all greenhouse gas emissions
• Dec. 19, 2007, offset 15 months of GHG - 2,488 tons - (improve signal timing on seventeen Portland arterials)
• All electricity from hydroelectric generator in Maine
• Next year's emissions offset will be reduced by 22 percent
Oberlin’s Dormitory Energy Competition
© 2007 Lucid Design Group. All rights reserved. Do not distribute.
Benefits:• Financial• Institutional Health• Risk Reduction: e.g. Oil Dependence • Effective Management e.g. Understanding system dynamics
• Reputation/Differentiation• Transparency• Global Responsibility• Alignment with Mission…
CEO of Interface Inc. Ray Anderson has committed:
• Zero footprint by 2020 – in all of Interface’s operations
• Dematerialization – renewable embodied energy
by shaking it
• Waste to landfill down 70%• Saved over $336 million since 1996• Ghg down 46 % from 1996• Carbon Intensity, down one-third• Water usage down 78% per yard of carpet
“it is so hard to shake
the opiate of status quo”
• PRINCIPLE 1: SIMPLICITY
• PRINCIPLE 2: UNEXPECTEDNESS
• PRINCIPLE 3: CONCRETENESS
• PRINCIPLE 4: CREDIBILITY
• PRINCIPLE 5: EMOTIONS
• PRINCIPLE 6: STORIES
Is carbon neutrality too idealistic?
What would a reasonable skeptic say?
Drill baby drill
More nuclear power
Clean coal
Simplicity, simplicity, simplicity! (1854)
Simplicity, simplicity, simplicity, simplicity, simplicity, simplicity, simplicity, simplicity, simplicity, simplicity, simplicity, simplicity, simplicity, simplicity, simplicity, simplicity, simplicity, simplicity, simplicity, simplicity, simplicity, simplicity, simplicity,
The good news?
There’s lots of low hanging fruit.
Getting to Carbon Neutrality 20 year plan:
• Area per occupant -- 30 % reduction• Technology of systems – 30 % more efficient• Envelope effectiveness – 30 % better insulation• Operational controls – 30 % more efficient• Management effectiveness – 30 % better scheduling• User habits – 30 % more efficient• Extending useful life – 30 % longer life• Emissions/BTU of fuel source – 30 % less ghg/BTU
The total building emissions:= A(0.7) x T(0.7) x E(0.7) x O(0.7) x M(0.7) x U(0.7) x L(0.7) x F(0.7)
= 0.05 or 95% reduction …and we haven’t put up a solar panel or wind turbine yet.
Dartmouth CO2 Emissions
0
50
100
150
200
250
1971197319751977197919811983198519871989199119931995199719992001200320052007200920112013201520172019202120232025
CO2 Emissions (10
6 lbs per year)
Recorded Emissions Projected Emissions Area/Occupant System Technology EnvelopeOperational Controls Management User Habits Useful Life Emissions/BTU
2005 emissions = 164.8 106 lbs/year
Missing data1993-1994
Emissions from burning #6 heating oil and purchased electricity, accounting for 96% of emissions
Note: Percentages can be changed starting in column 'V' of the Data tab
Getting to Carbon Neutral30 percent over 20 years
The more rigorous the design constraints:
The more creative and useful the final system.
20 percent vs. factor 20 reduction
What is the factor you are using in your payback formula for the
rising costs of energy?
• Trading externalities– Trading Toxicity for Lower
Carbon. (Nuclear)– Trading Habitat for
Independence from Foreign Oil. (Bio fuels)
• No value given to natural systems
• Ignores ecosystem services • Ignores toxicity
Caution against bean counting carbon
Humanity’s Consumption
Compared to
Biospheric Production
Quantifying Sustainability
Living Planet Report WWF, Global Footprint Network
• Approx. 9,000 data points/country.
• Computed for 150 nations from 1961 to the present.
•Sums over 200 categories including cereals, timber, fishmeal and fibers
•Referenced to biosphere to relate to global economy
US Auto Footprint
United States
High embodied energy materialsand services
Computers
Food
Buildings
Communications
Insurances
Missing from the
inventories
Biomass concerns:Biomass has greater CO2/BTU than most fuels.
Fuel Type Pounds of CO2 per Million BTU• Wood chips 222• Coal 205 - 227 • #6 oil 174• #2 oil 161• Landfill Gas 115• Solar Thermal 0 (approx)• Wind 0 (approx)• Low-impact hydro 0 (approx)
Biomass down sides:
• Forest Lover -- inherent value.
• Forests of New England are returning, reindustrialize them?
• Better alternatives exist.
• Polluting, immediate release of carbon, dirty, crude, inefficient. • Species extinction currently 1000 times natural rate
• Logging impacts biodiversity, habitat, hydrology and old-growth ecology.
More biomass down sides:• Forests have highest ecosystem services of land types.
• No value-added component. (Cedar $50 into $5,000)
• Large areas needed
• Forests use ‘waste’ as mulch, habitat & water retention and add carbon and nitrogen.
• Biodiversity and food -- priority.
• Ethanol can require more energy to produce than it delivers.
Ecosystem services
Water purification
Carbon sequestration
Climate regulation
Soil retention
Wildlife habitat
Pollination
17 Ecosystem services
• Is estimated to average of US$33 trillion per year.
• Global gross national product total is around US$18 trillion per year.
For the entire biosphere For 16 biomes
Oren Lyons -- Onondaga
“What you people call your
natural resources our people
call our relatives.”
Rewire
Try this at home! Playing with renewables demystifies them.
Making
At home, can make a believer out of you.
• Sharing – Two in car (1/2 footprint)• Caring –Halve travel (1/4 footprint)• Conserving – 2 x the mpg (1/8 footprint)• More sharing – 4 in car (1/16) • Caring – Half travel again (1/32)
Bike Commuter
Car Commuter
Bus Commuter
#1 Impact Item: Transportation
Factor 24
Zero emission vehicle
#2 Impact item: Housing (sq-ft. & embodied energy)
1/5 area/person X 1/5 impact/area = Factor 25
$1,500
#3. Impact item:utilities
One cordof wood
(R45 walls)
Micro solar homestead – Vermont
Thermo-siphon solar hot water
#4 Impact item:Diet
Localvore foodFactor 25
Vegan 1/15 – 1/30Local/organic --¼ - ½
Organic -- ¼ -½Veganic
Sometimes you just have too many carrots
Root cellar
Stores vegetables for 6 months without energy
Harvesting rye
The threshing floor
Winnowed winter rye
February’s blueberries
A 20 year experiment in detangling from materialism
• War-tax resistor• Attempt at Global Living -- Avg. $5,000/year for 16 years• Volunteered over 20,000 hours
www.dartmouth.edu/~sustain
Sustainability at
Dartmouth College
Projects include:
•Indicators•High performance buildings•Energy and CO2 reduction•Solid waste reduction •Waste-free dining•Sustainability coordinator training•Outreach and communication
Student initiatives
• ECO• The Big Green Bus• ESD • Dartmouth Progressives• The Green Magazine• Biodiesel Project• Farm and Field• Green Greeks
Building feedback -- energy and water
Design new facilities to perform in the top 5% by building type
20 % of buildings use 80 % of the energy
Building performance
Enthalpy Heat Recovery
Wastewater heat recovery
Ground source heat pump
Standing column Well
Well Drilling
Possible solar thermal applications:
•Make-up water for steam plant
•Heating pools and hot water in the gym
•Leased equipment with positive cash flow in one to two years.
Dartmouth’s Garbage EF
United States
Context
Social marketing
Garbage from over 500 lunches
12 hours of trash from Collis
Compost facility in action
Sales up 10.1%
Customer transactions up 7.3%
in Greek houses, dorms and campus offices
Training Sustainability Coordinators
The Chronicle of Higher Education Wednesday, January 24, 2007
Dartmouth Earns Highest Grade on Sustainability Report Card Along with Williams College,
Harvard and Stanford.Issued by The Sustainable Endowments Institute
Tending the inner fire
Sustainability asks us to look
at the world differently.
Yes! We can take back some Proxies
Can we meet some of needs without Corporations and Oil?
But… How will we get around?
Who will feed us?
Who will be my friend?
How will we stay warm?
Where will the sweetness for life come from?
David Orr invites us to: Imagine colleges and universities with a commitment to operate so that they
do not undermine the integrity, beauty and stability of the world their
students will inherit.
Could institutions of higher education lead in the transition to a
new world powered by current sunlight? Why not? The limits are no
longer technological or even economic, but those of imagination
and commitment.
The Winner?
