River Basin Management of Zambezi 2011

River Basin Management in theMiddle and Lower Zambezi in

Critical Periods

Daniel Ribeiro | Sílvia Dolores

JA _ Justiça Ambiental

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Technical Details

TitleRiver Basin Management in the Middle and Lower Zambezi in Critical Periods

PublicationJA! Justiça Ambiental - FOE Mozambique

ByDaniel Ribeiro (MSc Ecology) and Silvia Dolores (BSc Biology)

Field Team: Anabela Lemos, Mauro Pinto, and Sílvia Dolores

CoordinationAnabela Lemos

ForOxfam

Cover ImageMauro Pinto

RevisionVanessa Cabanelas (BSc Biology)

Graphic Layout & ProductionPedro Morgado

Free Distribution

Maputo, January 2011.


Critical Periods

Zambeze_relatório_FINAL_impressao_eng_01_Layout 1 22-09-2011 23:14 Page 1

2 | JA _ Justiça Ambiental

Abstract

Floods have always been a part of the history of the Zambezi River but the benefits outweigh the negative impacts of life on the river. Floodsbring sediments rich in nutrients, feed wetlands, clean the canals, tributaries and branches, and much more. In the past, the highly predictableflooding regime of the Zambezi River allowed for the emergence of traditional practices and social systems that relied on and benefited from theriver's natural functioning.

The dams along the Zambezi modified this natural flow through the release of stored water to generate power during the dry season, using thehigh flow levels to induce flooding in the summer to fill the reservoir, and at the same time prepare for the low flows of the dry season. The regu-lated flow of the Zambezi has been drying out wet areas previously fed by the floodwaters of the Zambezi. Dry channels and branches along theZambezi are becoming increasingly common, many of which have become completely disconnected from the main river channel. The river is nolonger a river of multiple channels and side branches that were constantly changing, instead becoming a river with a single main channel. Thewater released by dams erodes the banks and deepens the river bed due to the need to balance sediment content. The now dry flood plains haveserious consequences for biodiversity and populations of large animals are not the only ones at risk. There was a reduction in the amount of vari-ous herbaceous species of the wetlands in these flood plains, allowing for the invasion of woody savannah. The remaining herbivores can nolonger control the growth of plants further altering the vegetation.

The present flow regime in the Lower Zambezi has also caused major changes in settlement patterns of communities living along the river. Thelow flow regime of summer and the absence of floods promoted the permanent settlement of the communities on the banks, sandbars, andfloodplains that were previously occupied only seasonally. The settlements in these areas were a major reason why the floods of 2000-2001were so severe with more than 700 people killed in one year and more than 500,000 homeless. Compared with the past, there were more than10 floods during the twentieth century which exceeded the magnitude of the floods of 2000-2001 in the Zambezi Delta region. Many of thesefloods did not result in loss of life or in significant economic losses. Cahora Bassa’s capacity to contain most of the seasonal floods caused thecommunities along the Zambezi to lose their memory of the floods, making communities incapable of managing the risks. Floods are unpre-dictable now as only the largest floods are not retained by Cahora Bassa. The lack of warning and the irregularity of floods have made the commu-nities along the Zambezi much more vulnerable to the negative impacts of floods.

Unfortunately the current solution to resettle at-risk communities in safer areas has had negative impacts on their lives. Many of the surveyedcommunities are resettled in improved houses, masonry, most of them have a school and health clinic nearby, but in terms of food security theyare in worse conditions than before. Their survival still depends on the same activities and the same resources; fertile soils and water resources.Resettled communities are now far from the river and access to water is a problem that has arisen with resettlement. They are extremely poorpopulations with no other source of income so as to ensure regular minimum wages.

For the communities still residing along the river, the problems of food insecurity are also aggravated by the dam discharges during the dry sea-son. Cahora Bassa regularly discharges stored water for hydropower generation during the dry season at the request of influential users such asthose involved in plantations of cane sugar or large barges. Discharges occur more often during the winter when the water flow is low and themajor users are more demanding. Unfortunately, it is also at this time that agriculture in floodplains is more intense and when the dam dis-charges flood these regions there are large losses. All communities interviewed referred to the constant “uncontrolled flooding”, during the dryseason, as the main factor that has come to change their life and further impoverishes their families and community. There were regular reportsof loss, mostly crops, with losses reported all the way to the Marromeu region.

Current discharges do not take into account the needs of all users of the Basin and changes are made according to the extraordinary demands ofthe large users. The management has not been a participatory process, local communities living in areas close to the river banks are without avoice, their needs are not taken into account, nor their time of sowing and time taken harvesting, and their rights are not respected. The role ofARA-Zambezi is not clear; most users of the Basin do not distinguish between the roles and responsibilities of Cahora Bassa (HCB) and the ARA-Zambezi. The main function of the ARA-Zambezi, coordinating, is not effective and this is reflected in the malfunctioning of the flood warningsystem and is compounded by weak policies and the limited capacity of the coordinating bodies. The hydrological model currently in use is notfully being taken advantage of and all the necessary data are not included resulting in poor accuracy and short lead time for decision making andcommunication with the Committees of Risk Management Disaster.

Excessive regulation of water combined with the mismanagement of the competent bodies leads to the livelihoods of communities being con-stantly placed at risk and making them more vulnerable to the impacts of flooding. By contrast the work done by the National Institute of Disas-ter Management (INGC) has been to minimize major disasters. However, it is always better to be safe than prevention is always better than cureand according to the results of the climate change model, the difficulties currently faced by communities will be exacerbated, so there is a greatneed for efficient and sustainable management which takes into account the needs of all users alike.

River Basin Management in the Middle and Lower Zambezi in Critical Periods


JA _ Justiça Ambiental | 3

Acknowledgments

During the study we had the opportunity to meet and work with various institutions and individuals who have contributed positively to this studyso that it could be successfully accomplished. Whether this contribution was in the form of valuable information or logistical support provided,to all these contributors we show our recognition and appreciation:

We wish to emphasize in particular the Administrators of Mutarara and Marromeu, Dr. Antonio Matucho, who at the time represented the Adminis-trator of Tambara, for their availability, the informality with which we were received, and the information provided;To all the interviewed communities, for their hospitality, manner of reception particularly for its genuineness, and for all that we were able to ab-sorb and learn;

At Cahora Bassa dam, to Dr. Rosaque Guale in particular, for the information provided and effort made to do so, since it was not possible to inter-view her personally due to overlapping agendas of those involved, the information provided a good basis of understanding on the current situa-tion of the management of the reservoir;

To the ARA – Zambeze for always receiving us with their loyal hospitality;To Dr. Patrocínio of the Zambezi Planning Office, Dr. José Argola of the WWF in Marromeu, and Mr. Guripa and all other staff who received us at theNational Institute of Disaster Management for their availability, informality and information provided;The hospitality of Magariro, in Tambara, their staff were always available and helpful to the JA! field team, especially to Mr. Felix for his unique-ness;

A special thanks to the “Ambassadors of Mutarara”: Amarildo Leite and Alberto Pinto for their untiring readiness, willingness and resources avail-able, providing a good working environment, companionship and always opening doors in all the communities visited, making us feel very wel-come and like part of the great family of this region. It was a pleasure!

Our sincere thanks must also go to Suzanne and Giovanni of Oxfam Intermon of Marromeu for making their contacts and some of their facilitiesavailable for meetings, and for their hospitality.

Last but not least, to the funder and organisation for which this study was designed, Oxfam, a big thank you for the: opportunities, experiencesand participatory learning that will always be an asset to the organizational and personal development of all those involved.

List of Acronyms

ANE – Administração Nacional de Estradas (National Roads Administration)ARA-Zambeze – Administração Regional de Águas do Zambeze (Zambeze Regional Water Administration)ARA – Centro – Administração Regional de Águas da Zona Centro (Regional Water Administration – Central Region)CCM3 – Community Climate Model CENOE – Centro Nacional de Operações de Emergência (National Centre for Emergency Operations)CLGRC – Comités Locais de Gestão de Risco e Calamidades (Local Committees for Risk and Disaster Management)EOC – Emergency Operations CentreDNA – Direção Nacional de Águas (National Water Directorate)DRIFT – Downstream Response to Imposed Flow Transformation DWAF - Department of Water Affairs of Zambia EDM – Electricidade de Moçambique (Electricity of Mozambique)EPDA – Estudo de pré-viabilidade ambiental (Environmental Pre-Feasibility Study)FIPAG – Fundo de Investimento e Património de Abastecimento de ÁguaGPZ – Gabinete Plano de Zambeze (Zambeze Planning Office)HCB – Hidroeléctrica de Cahora Bassa (Cahora Bassa Hydroelectric Plant)INGC – Instituto Nacional de Gestão de Calamidades (National Institute of Disaster Management)INIP – Instituto Nacional de Investigação pesqueira (National Institute for Fisheries Research)JOTC – Joint Operational Technical Committee KNBPS – Kariba North Bank Power Station KSBPC – Kariba South Bank Power Station MICOA – Ministério para a Coordenação Acção Ambiental (Ministry for Environmental Action Coordination)MOPH – Ministério das Obras Públicas e Habitação (Ministry of Public Works and Housing)NGO – Non Governmental Organisation CSO – Civil Society OrganisationsProjecto REABDESC – Projecto de reabilitação dos descarregadores da barragem (Project for the rehabilitation of the dam spillways)SAC – Sistema de Aviso de Cheias (Flood Warning System)SARCOF – Southern African Regional Climate Outlook Forum WWF – World Wildlife FundZESCO – Zambia Electricity Supply Company ZINWA – Zimbabwe National Water Authority ZRA – Zambezi River Authority


Abstract

Acknowledgments

List of Acronyms

I INTRODuCTION

Floods

Settlement Patterns

Settlement Patterns

Study Objectives

II METHODOLOGy

1) Identification and Description of Study Areas

2) Chronology

3) Methods

CONTENTS

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III RESuLTS

1) Social Impacts – Means of Subsistence and Food Security

2) Resettlement Process

3) Responsibility in the Regulation of the River Flow

4) Environmental Impacts

5) Hydrology

6) Hydrological Forecast Model Used

7) Flood Early Warning System

Communication Scheme between the Various Sectors and Players

8) Climatic Changes

IV CONCLuSIONS

V RECOMMENDATIONS

VI CONSTRAINTS

VII BIBLIOGRAPHy

VIII APPENDICES

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I INTRODUCTION River Basin Management in the Middle and Lower Zambezi in Critical Periods

The Zambezi River is vital to the development of Mozam-bique, feeding life into one of the most productive and bio-logically diverse tropical lowlands in Africa. This river is2,660km long and drains seven countries and has a totaldrainage area of 1,570,000km2.(16, 19) This makes it thefourth largest river system in Africa and the largest flow-ing into the Indian Ocean.(16) The flow of water from theZambezi River can reach 22,000m3/s.(15) The area of theLower Zambezi in Mozambique is the largest delta in EastAfrica and is used directly by about 2.8 million people,mostly peasants.(31) This region has a very diverse land-scape, alternating between narrow gorges to areas of mo-bile sand banks to branch channels, and finally ending in atributary coastline 290 km wide that forms a delta of18,000km2.(2,16,20) The Valley of the Lower Zambezi func-tions around the seasonal flooding of the ZambeziRiver.(4,14,25) As in all ecosystems, the system of the Zambeziis the product of thousands and thousands of years of evo-lution, and the floods form a vital factor for its operation.Since the most ancient cultural practices, such as flood re-cession agriculture and the synchronisation and biologi-cal dependence on ecosystems, floods are the essence ofhealth in the past, present and future of the Zambezi valley.(4,5,6,10,16,23,24,25,29)

Floods

Reports of flooding in the Zambezi River, dating back to1830, are common in the oral history of the people of theDelta region. Floods bring sediments rich in nutrients,provide water for dry floodplains, wash bodies of stagnantwater, and clean the river canals, tributaries andbranches.(14,16,23) Two major floods prior to the construc-tion of the Kariba Dam were frequently reported. Thelongest floods occurred in 1952, locally known as SenaCheia M'bomane (the flood that destroyed everything).(25)

In 1958, the last year before the Kariba Dam began to regu-late the flow of the Zambezi, other large floods took placeknown as N'sasira Cheia (the flood that forced people tolive on top of anthills).(25) Since the construction of KaribaDam unusual patterns of flooding have frequently been re-ported. In 1969, the water level remained above the floodlevel for 222 days from early January until mid-August.(25)

This atypical pattern of flooding was the result of pro-longed discharges by Kariba during the dry season. Theinhabitants of the area refer to these strange floods in thedry season as Nabwariri Cheia (water coming from theground). After the Cahora Bassa dam, floods are describedas being very irregular in terms of period, magnitude, du-ration, frequency, and the rise and fall levels of water.(25)

The catastrophic floods of 1978 are described as CheiaMadeya (the flood that wiped out many coastal people andforced them to settle in the highlands).(25) The CahoraBassa opened the eight floodgates and the emergencyfloodgate in quick succession during the height of thefloods, and many of those who inhabited the floodplainswere unable to flee to the highlands in time.(25) Forty-fivepeople died and more than 100,000 people were displaced.In 1989 discharges from Cahora Bassa rapidly increased,

from one floodgate on 6 February to five floodgates on 12February to prevent the dam filling up too much.(25) Flashfloods caused considerable damage to the settlements thathad returned to the plains of the Delta, and are remem-bered locally as Cheia Cassussa because the water levelsrose so quickly that there was no time to escape.(25)

By reducing the amount of sediment carried in the river,the river bed and sandbanks are washing away.(16) Somepeople close to the Mopeia observed that the Cua Cuachannel is deeper than before, and that the sands are nowdeposited on land and reduce soil fertility. In some visitedplaces where they have suffered severe erosion of agricul-tural land, such as the location of Chipwazo in the districtof Caia, the local population have planted “maque-ngueres”, a special plant with many roots that acts as a bar-rier to soil erosion during floods. Most people think theriver has not changed in colour or smell.

Respondents also reported increased levels of soil erosionalong the river channel, and often blame the managementof Cahora Bassa for these changes.In addition to the large natural floods that are beyond the

Figure 1: Mark up to where the water rose in the latest floods, Nhane Commu-nity, Marromeu, photograph by Anabela Lemos



I INTRODUCTIONRiver Basin Management in the Middle and Lower Zambezi in Critical Periods

Figure 2: Images of fields flooded by the October 2003 discharge: Boromir, Tete (100 km downstream of Cahora Bassa) (left), and Sinjale, Tete, where the owner, Mr.Tomas Ernesto, on his lost crops (about 300 km downstream from Cahora Bassa) (right).

control of Cahora Bassa, small unpredictable floods duringthe dry season are exacerbating food insecurity along theZambezi. Cahora Bassa regularly discharges water storedfor hydroelectric power generation during the dry seasonat the request of influential users such as for sugar caneplantations or large barges.(25) The largest discharges usu-ally occur during winter when water flow is low and themajor users are more demanding. Unfortunately, it is alsoat this time that agriculture in floodplains is more intense,and when the dam discharges flood these regions thereare large losses. On previous visits to communities in theZambezi valley, there were regular reports of the planta-tions, with losses up to the Marromeu region. Sometimesthe crops were lost due to minor flooding in the dry sea-son, only one or two weeks before the expected harvest(Fig. 2). If communities had knowledge of these smallfloods or if these discharges were predictable, they coulddo their harvesting in time or they could benefit fromthese small floods. Currently, these discharges are only in-creasing the problems of food insecurity along the Zam-bezi.

Settlement Patterns

In the past, the highly predictable flooding regime of theZambezi River allowed for the emergence of settlementpatterns that were in sync with the natural functioning ofthe River.(12,25) The regulated flow regime now present inthe Lower Zambezi, has caused major changes to the set-tlement patterns of communities living along theRiver.(12,25) The lower flow in the summer and the absenceof floods promoted the permanent settlement of thebanks, sandbars and flood plains that were previously oc-cupied only seasonally.(12,28) These settlements in theseareas were one of the main reasons why the floods of2000-2001 were so severe, with more than 700 peoplekilled in one year and more than 500,000 home-less.(3,12,13,17,26,27) These numbers could have been muchworse were it not for the rapid and extensive rescue opera-tions by South Africa and other countries.

Compared with the past, there were more than 10 floodsduring the 20th century that exceeded the magnitude ofthe floods of 2000-2001 in the Zambezi Delta region.(12)

Many of these did not result in loss of life or in significanteconomic losses.(13,28) The capacity of Cahora Bassa to con-tain most of the floods caused the communities along theZambezi to lose their memory of floods. This means thatcommunities are unable to manage the risks, floods areunpredictable now as only the largest floods are not re-tained by Cahora Bassa. Even if the water coming into thereservoir is greater than the water going out of CahoraBassa Dam, their past flow patterns have made the com-munities along the Zambezi much more vulnerable to thenegative impacts of floods.



Health Issues

The change in settlement pattern that has made commu-nities more vulnerable to major flooding and increasedthe number of people directly affected by severe floodingalso has serious health implications. During the floods of2000 more than 500,000 people were displaced and thisplaced large numbers of people in refugee camps with in-adequate sanitation, food, and water supply.(13,17) These con-ditions have caused major health problems, such ascholera, typhoid fever, polio, hepatitis, and other gastroin-testinal diseases.

Usually the main cause of disease in developing countriestends to be water-related diseases. For example, bothmalaria-carrying mosquitoes and freshwater snails trans-mit schistosomiasis and are both found in stagnant water.Major floods serve to move the bodies of stagnant water.This not only increases the water quality of water bodiesand replenishes the groundwater, but also tends to reducethe productivity of vectors such as mosquitoes. Thesefloods also increase the populations of fish that feed onthese vectors, further decreasing their populations. Inareas where water bodies are completely dry, water-re-lated diseases were also significantly decreased. However,this has forced the communities in these dry areas to bemore dependent on the Zambezi River for bathing, drink-ing, and other domestic activities, leading to a settlementcloser to the river (increased risk of flooding), increasingtheir exposure to many pathogens, which has beenpointed out as being one of the reasons for many crocodileattacks.

Study Objectives

The phenomenon of flooding is already well known in thelower Zambezi. Several examples are reported over theyears, where loss of life and property is the sum total ac-quired. Management, planning, and an early warning sys-tem are factors inherent to this situation.

This study’s objectives include:

1) To evaluate the effectiveness of planning between thevarious institutions involved in the process of taking ac-tion deemed appropriate like the warning of invasion ofwater on agricultural fields as well as loss of human lives;

2) To determine the extent to which people living in areasclose to the banks of the Zambezi Basin susceptible toflooding are informed and made aware about the issuesinvolved with the HCB discharges, like the right that citi-zens and communities have as well as the need for com-munities to participate in this process;

3) To diagnose weaknesses / capabilities of the mathemati-cal hydrological forecasting model used in the predictionof floods in the Zambezi Basin in terms of accuracy andlead time (hydrometric data) and their connection in com-munication with the Local Disaster Risk Management;

4) Qualitatively evaluate the impact of the destruction offood crops resulting from flooding of the Zambezi Basin,and finally;

5) To produce a report containing the analysis of data col-lected, the results, conclusions and recommendations ofthe study outlining the actions and activities of priorityaimed at future advocacy actions.

I INTRODUCTION River Basin Management in the Middle and Lower Zambezi in Critical Periods

Figure 3: Bauaze School, Marromeu. Photograph by Anabela Lemos


Identification and Description of Study Areas

The study focuses on the Zambezi Valley, more preciselyon the Lower Zambezi downstream of Cahora Bassa, in-cluding the provinces of Tete, Manica, and Sofala.

The sites visited were chosen based on the characteristicsof the area and taking into account the extreme vulnera-bility of local communities to prolonged droughts andconstant floods. These are communities that are directlydependent on water as a resource for living based on sub-sistence agriculture and small scale fishing - activitieswhich ensure their sustainability.

Tambara (Manica) and Mutarara (Tete) share very similarfeatures, they both have a fairly dry climate, their averageannual rainfall ranges from 500 to 800mm in the period ofone year between November and March of the followingyear. The potential evapotranspiration, on average, isaround 1,200 to 1,400 mm and the average annual temper-ature is 26.5 º C with a maximum of 32.5 º C and a mini-mum of 20.5 º C. The high temperature conditionsaggravated by poor rainfall in these regions have in-creased dependency and shortage of water needed foragriculture and crop development. Given the direct de-pendence of these communities on this resource for localcharacteristics and distribution of communities along theriver, they have been widely affected by the floods and areoften left isolated, losing their crops, their seeds for the fol-lowing season, cattle and other small goods they may pos-sess. Many of the communities visited are now resettledand are not in imminent danger of losing their homes andproperty, but are far from the places where they carry outtheir activities, often without access to water, and thus thesustainability of their situation is at greater risk.

Marromeu, in Sofala Province, is a district with very differ-ent characteristics but which also features the same typeof vulnerability to floods and prolonged droughts. With 79rivers and streams with permanent water courses, Mar-romeu has a humid tropical climate at all sites, with twoseasons per year, including winter, from April to August,


II METODOLOGIARiver Basin Management in the Middle and Lower Zambezi in Critical Periods II METHODOLOGY

and summer during the remaining months.

The average annual rainfall is about 910mm, while the av-erage annual potential evapotranspiration is about1.574mm. Most rainfall occurs mainly during the period ofDecember to March, varying greatly in quantity and distri-bution during the year or from year to year. The averageannual temperature is in the order of 24.0 º C. The annualmean maximum and minimum are 32.1 and 16.º C respec-tively. Given the strong influence of watercourses in thedistrict, it is also often at risk of flooding and affected bythese as well. It is a district known for its richness in termsof agricultural production once exploited and now its pop-ulations are under constant risk of these floods, losingtheir crops, property and income source. The communi-ties live in constant isolation due to flooding and, in addi-tion to their other losses, the constant stress of animminent flood increases their vulnerability.

Chronology

This study was drawn up between 20 September 2010 andJanuary 2011. The fieldwork was conducted in two stagesfrom 21-25 September and a second stage from 4-16 Octo-ber 2010.

In the first stage the study began in a community nearMphanda Nkuwa where they interviewed some membersof a local association, Voices of the Zambezi, following thecommunities of Chirodzi and M'sarángué in the period 21-25 September. From 4-6 October, in a second stage, the re-search team initially remained in the city of Tete to visitsome institutions of interest which have their headquar-ters there, as well as a visit to a town nearby in the Boromacommunity (Table 1).

From there on 6-8 October, Tambara in Manica Provincewas visited where questionnaires were also conductedwith Macambira and Sabet communities.

After that Mutarara, Tete, was visited from 9-11 Octoberwhere questionnaires were conducted in Mutarara itself,as well as Sucamiala, Catchaço, and Baué.

Then the province of Sofala was visited on 12 October, pass-ing through Caia where members belonging to the com-munities of Chamdimba and Inhampunga wereinterviewed, and finally Marromeu, where the communi-ties of Nhane, Bauaze, and Jiwa were visited, staying forfour days from 12-15 October.

Province

Tete

Manica

Sofala

District

Tete

Mutarara

Tambara

Caia

Marromeu

Community

Boroma

Mphanda Nkuwa

Chirodzi

Catchaço

Baué

Tambara

Sabeta

Macamba

Chandimba

Inhampunga

Nhane

Bauaze

Jiwa

Table 1. Study Area, visited communities

Sucamiala

M'sanángué



II METHODOLOGY River Basin Management in the Middle and Lower Zambezi in Critical Periods

Methods

The following methods were used in this study:

a) Bibliographical research and revision;

b) Structured interviews, by way of questionnaires previ-ously formulated (questionnaires included in appendices);

c)Direct observation;

d) Modelling scenarios of climatic change.

The modelling of climate change scenarios was doneusing the database of WorldClim which includes "layers"of global climate data in great detail. The data can be usedto map and make spatial models in GIS. The database isused in several scientific studies and analysis and reviewof it is available in several articles, including, Hijmans, RJ,SE Cameron, JL Parra, PG Jones and A. Jarvis, 2005. Veryhigh resolution interpolated climate surfaces for globalland areas. International Journal of Climatology 25: 1965-1978.

The climatic database was imported into DIVA-GIS (freeon the website: http://www.diva-gis.org) for special analy-sis under the component Bioclim using NCAR(http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/ cms/ccm3 /) Community Cli-mate Model (Community Climate Model - CCM3) in orderto calculate the predictions of climate modelling and de-termine possible future scenarios. The NCAR CCM3 is astable model, efficient, well documented, and has a veryadvanced system of atmospheric circulation usually de-signed for climate research.

In the analysis data from 2007 was used as the representa-tive year of the current climate given the high level of ac-curacy and data available. The modelling was carried outuntil 2050 so that the changes and possible scenarioscould have a detailed and clear graphical representation.The modelling for shorter periods would not have a simplegraphical presentation of analysis and would only be pos-sible to identify the most extreme changes.

At each site visited local authorities were consulted, at aGovernment level the Administrators (in the case of theCapital Districts) were consulted, except Caia, where agroup of fishermen belonging to the communities ofChandimba and Inhamponga were interviewed. In localcommunities, the Secretary of the neighbourhood, com-munity leader, or chief were always present to respect thetradition, protocol, and hierarchy established at the site.

In the case of local communities the utmost was done, suc-cessfully, to integrate all the classes representing the com-munity; young, old, farmers, fishermen, and other existingcrafts, with special attention to the integration of womengiven their role and sensitivity within the family and thecommunity.

A total of 15 communities were interviewed which in-cluded about 214 people, 13 institutions (Government andPrivate), and an individual count corresponding to a totalof 228 people, providing for one individual per institution,where respondents must represent and defend the inter-ests of this institution. In this light, it may be said that theissues presented in this study correspond to the questionsand problems experienced by the communities inter-viewed, which includes at least 62 123 people, according tothe total number of people who constitute the communi-ties provided by some community leaders interviewed(Table 1 Appendices).

The result was great and the working group had no prob-lem with being received into the community, filling outtheir questionnaires, and in most cases the results ex-ceeded expectations, approaching more and more peopleas they returned from their activities, actively participat-ing, giving their opinions, and including input and recom-mendations. The availability and informality of theAdministrators was evident in all provincial capitals whichhelped a lot in this study since the field work was notrigidly scheduled and depended on the permanence of thegroup in each of the locations, the number of locations tovisit, the distance between these, and the access roads andmeans of transport available locally. Their contributionwith the suggestion to visit local communities that havemost suffered the impact of floods, was extremely impor-tant because in addition to those already identified, theycontributed importantly in view of their experience.

The group was almost always accompanied by an inter-preter, who spoke the local language and when not, thecommunity undertook to appoint and provide someoneelse who they trusted to interpret where Portuguese wasnot enough.



III RESULTSRiver Basin Management in the Middle and Lower Zambezi in Critical Periods

1) Social Impacts – Means of Subsistence and FoodSecurity

All 15 interviewed communities referred to the “uncon-trolled flooding”, which is constant and outside the rainyseason, as being the main factor that has come to changetheir lives and exacerbate the poverty of their families andcommunity. According to the interviewed communities,flash floods due to the large discharges of the HCB duringthe dry season over past years continues to occur and withincreasing frequency. The situation worsened between1997 and1998 and has increased dramatically in 2001 -2003 until now.

“Before the construction of HCB floods were periodic, butafter the dam was built the situation changed. In recentyears the situation has gotten worse, we want to knowwhat's going on, nobody can tell us, everything is alreadyout of control!” The population is now even more impov-erished, hungrier still and uncontrolled floods are toblame. The situation has been constant since 2007 (Mu-tarara, Baue Community).

“In 2008 we still managed to take something out of theground on the farm, in 2009 and 2010 everything was ru-ined by floods. Before, in November, the river rose with therain, now in January, July, October, every year there arefloods.” (Tambara, Macambira Community).

An example of this was the flood in June 2010 that, accord-ing to those interviewed, was catastrophic, where commu-nities close to the river banks lost everything they hadplanted, some animals such as goats and chickens, amongother small possessions, and it even reached Marromeuand Chemba. There were a number of respondents whoattributed the floods of this time to the discharges of HCB,which was instructed to increase flow for the ferry, previ-ously operating in Caia, so it could get to Tete, since Caiawas no longer useful upon the inauguration of the EmilioGuebuza Bridge. Among the respondents are the commu-nities of Chandimba and Inhampunga of the district of

Figure 4: Interview with a school teacher from the Macamba Community,Tambara District. Photo by Anabela Lemos

Caia, the Project Coordinator of World Vision of Mutarara,and the Administrator of Marromeu.

“In June ferries needed to go between Caia and Tete, butafter the Guebuza Bridge opened ferries were no longerneeded in Caia. Thus, the flow rate increased and the fer-ries went up.” (Mutarara, World Vision).

All 15 interviewed communities reported that their liveli-hoods come from subsistence agriculture and fishing, andthat in Nhane and Bauase, both in the district of Mar-romeu, other activities were also reported such as pottery,sculpture, and hunting of small animals like the “thin legand Vonda”. In the communities of Sucamiala, MutararaDistrict, and two others located near Mphanda Nkuwa live-stock production is stronger.

These are extremely poor populations, with no othersource of income that ensures them minimum and regu-lar wages. Of the 15 interviewed communities only one,Bauaze, referred to the sale of surplus product, in this casesesame, from their agricultural activities, but that does notalways happen and has not happened in recent years.

All interviewed communities referred to the fact that be-fore this situation of worsening poverty they all possessedsurplus, almost every year.

“Since 2001 when the flood situation worsened, every yearthere are floods and they remain a long time now. Thisyear from February to August it was always flooded, butbefore the floods remained just one day. Before I couldeven make some revenue on the sale of the surplus, butnow, especially since the construction of the GuebuzaBridge, the situation has worsened due to erosion worsen-ing (“gomola”).” (Caia, Communities of Chandimba andInhampunga)

“We do not want business projects, we want to harvest ourcrops” (Mutarara, Sucamiala Community).

However, in recent years what they could harvest in time(before the floods) from the farm was not enough to feedtheir families, some have even said that in the last yearthey have already missed three sowing seasons, one ofthem done out of despair because they had lost the twonormal sowing seasons (Community Boroma). The samecommunity also said that they no longer had anything toeat or to plant. The last can of seeds had already beeneaten due to not having anything else to eat.


Another equally important and relevant fact was the real-ization that all these communities have always beenbreeders of chickens, cattle, goats, and pigs, the majorityon a small scale, but each family owned a few heads. Todaythere is very little livestock that can be seen in communi-ties due to the shortage of seeds and food to sustain themand also because the communities are restricted to farmsin the lowlands where they end up leaving their animalsdue to water and food scarcity which does not constitute alimiting factor and where they can always naturally fertil-ize their fields. However, the ferocity and frequency offloods that have been ongoing in recent years do not givetime for the prior collection of animals, since this place isno longer forms part of the residential area of communi-ties, leaving fewer animals each time.

“Before, floods lasted for short periods of time. We built apoor hut on Muchem hill and when the water went downtwo days later we returned to our homes. Many of thefarm products were not totally ruined. Nowadays floodsare sudden, last longer, and you lose everything.” (Mar-romeu, Nhane and Jiwa Communities)

“Before, it was possible to remove goods and people beforethe floods. But now the floods are violent, come quickly,and so for this reason people do not dedicate themselvesto raising cattle, because they lose all the cattle when theyare caught unprepared. The remaining water causes dis-eases in places, before when there were floods peoplewould go out for short periods of time because they couldsoon return, now they don’t because of the type of dis-charge and the long period the water remains, these floods

also bring diseases and epidemics. They only warn us ofthe number of gates that will open not how much the flowwill increase.” (Mutarara, Catchaço community)

This constitutes another point to add to the risk of food se-curity in these communities, in this case the source of pro-tein. It is important to add at this point that fishing as asource of protein is also in danger. The three groups ofmale respondents whose main economic activity is fishingin Tambara and in Caia (belonging to the communities ofChamdimba and Inhampunga) and in Marromeu (Jiwa) re-ported that fishing in recent years has not been as abun-dant.

“Before there was a lot of fish, there was the time of spawn-ing and of breeding, now everything is unregulated.” (Caia,Communities of Chandimba and Inhampunga)

This may relate to changes in the river, due to constant un-regulated flooding (a factor indicated by the three groupsof fishermen as the likely perpetrator of fish distur-bances), considering the disturbances in the river alter thebalance of the ichthyological communities (fish), alter theecosystem, and the conditions of spawning, fertilizationand the nursery of young fish and consequently their pro-ductivity. The strength of the currents caused by floods isalso taken by communities as a factor of imbalance be-cause the existing eggs and small fish are washed away.

“Before there were a lot of fish and there were also fewerfishermen because there were more jobs. Before, life wasbetter then, unregulated floods came and worsened thelives of our families.” (Marromeu, Jiwa Community)

The conflict of interest in this basin is a fact, the integra-tion of all the issues relating to its management is not at allan easy task, but the ever-growing number of recordedfloods together with the communities outside of the rainyseason, with no apparent meteorological reason andwhere the sudden interests of others are increasingly im-posed on the basic needs and survival of all others.

2) Resettlement Process

According to various interviewed institutions like theARA-Zambezi, the HCB (via telephone conversation), andthe INGC, the concern of the impacts caused by floods hasbeen addressed through the resolution to remove all orthe largest possible number of communities from thebanks of the river that could flood, resettling the commu-nities in places where the river flood water does not reach.Much of this work has already been completed over thelast few years: Sabet, Macambira, Muzungos, Capandge, inthe District of Tambara; Catchaço, Baue, Charro, Vila Novada Fronteira, Sucamiala, Conga, in the District of Mutarara,and Chandimba and Inhampunga in Caia, among othersare examples. However, the conditions considered or de-fined as priorities at the outset do not always seem to sat-isfy the populations or meet their basic needs.


III RESULTS River Basin Management in the Middle and Lower Zambezi in Critical Periods

Figure 5: Breakfast of a family of the Nhane Community, Marromeu.Photo by Silvia Dolores




“During the rainy season roads are all cut, sometimes wehave to walk 40km, no cars pass, a school has been underconstruction since 2007, so we have no school (building)and when it rains it is a problem.” (Tambara, MacambaCommunity)

Given the direct dependence of these communities onwater resources not only to satisfy their basic needs, likebeing able to develop their activities in subsistence, butthe location of agriculture and fishing next to the river isessential because only then can they earn their livelihood.The vast majority of the population that is living in theseresettled communities used to live on the islets on theriver where they tended their farm, their cattle, and theirhome. With the resettlement, their residence location haschanged but the activities that supposedly guarantee theirlivelihoods have inevitably continued in the same places,except with the aggravating circumstance that they nowhave to spend even more time and energy getting fromtheir place of residence to their place of subsistence.

“Life was better before. Now the only thing we have betterare the houses and the promise of electricity.” (Mutarara,Sucamiala Community)

About 47% of interviewed communities are resettled inimproved houses, with better masonry, a large majorityhave a school and health clinic nearby, but in terms of foodsecurity they are in worse conditions. Their survival stilldepends on the same activities which require the same re-sources; fertile soils and water resources. The vast major-ity, resettled and not resettled, changed their place ofresidence due to the floods which have occurred in recentyears, each time increasingly larger, more frequent, andwith a longer permanence of water, causing more cumula-tive impacts. The population is increasingly more poorand vulnerable.

“Now we have a house on higher ground, when the floodscome we don’t lose our house but in terms of food securityour situation has worsened. Since 2007 to 2010 the situa-tion has worsened a great deal due to the frequent and di-vergent floods.” (Tambara, Macamba Community)

“Now when there are strong floods they also inundate theresettlement area. In this community various branches ofthe Zambezi pass close by. In June this year almost every-thing was flooded and we lost complete communication.This site was chosen for resettlement because the areawas higher and did not have to change in neighbourhood.There is a school but not every year and the Rural Hospitalis 6 km away.” (Mutarara, Sucamiala Community)

Another big and current problem is access to water. Theresettled communities are now far from the river and ac-cess to water is a problem that arose with the resettle-ment, there is a case in the Sabet community in Tambawhere a community is located 9 km from the river, withoutwater and where the access point to the nearest water isprecisely 9km away. Another example is Catchaço, Mu-

tare, where the nearest point of access to water is 3kmaway, but it is an area with a high number of crocodiles, asituation that is worsened by the problem of irregular anduncontrolled flooding.

“There is a water source but which is dry during the dryseason and so we have to travel 3km in search of water.The floods bring more crocodiles.” (Mutrarara, CatchaçoCommunity)

Another site referred to as having a serious problem of ac-cess to water was the community of Baue, also in Mutare,where Oxfam has already made four boreholes but thewater is salty. That leaves the population to get water fromthe nearest accessible location 5km away. This locationwas chosen for resettlement because it was the closest lo-cation, however far away from the islands, and so Baue ex-panded.

This population has many children and old people, mostlywomen and in terms of local culture, this is precisely thekind that will go and get water, leaving no major alterna-tive for individuals who could volunteer to get extra waterfor those not in a position to do so.

Figure 6: Along the river, day-to-day basis, in Tambara. Photograph by SílviaDolores

“The biggest difficulty in access to water, the nearest pointis 5km away. The majority of the population are old orwomen, who will fetch water for these people? We areasking for a borehole! Chief: Oxfam has already made fourboreholes but the water that comes out is salty!” (Mu-tarara, Báue Community)

Therefore, because the damage is no longer counted aslosses of lives and homes, discharges or floods triggeredby these will not have such catastrophic impacts, not tak-ing into account many of the losses in small family farms.




“We will die and leave the houses; even so we still bettermanage droughts than floods, floods we can no longer en-dure.” (Mutarara, Sucamiala Community)

For these communities the impacts of floods cause thegreatest loss of time and energy than planned which couldbe allocated to something more productive. The constantirregular discharges further aggravate the situation con-demning these people to perpetual and extreme povertymaking them increasingly vulnerable.

3) Responsibility in the Regulation of the River Flow

The interviewed communities seem to have a clear notionof who is currently responsible for the floods. Many donot even know what a dam is or how it functions but theyknow that now floods are no longer tied to the rain or thewet or dry seasons, as was the case in the not too distantpast. Reference is made to the main problem involving ir-regularity, lack of periodicity, and frequency of the floodswhich has happened in recent years. Responsibility is at-tributed to the HCB.

“The Government is more concerned with electricity thanits people: We are asking that they please try to mediate,manage, and stop the discharge confusion. Only in thisway can we can fill our granaries and when we produce wedo not upset anyone and we stay well! Chief: I'm askingthat they take us to see the project of these dams that im-pact us so.” (Mutarara, Catchaço Community)

Of the 15 interviewed communities, all refer to rain as thefactor responsible for floods before the flood situationworsened, except the Boroma community that refers thedischarges of Kariba in addition to the rain, they refer tothat time as having floods in amplitude of small tomedium, with large cyclical flooding every 5 years and inthe rainy season. For the current period or after the floodsituation deteriorated, all refer to Cahora Bassa Dam asbeing the factor responsible for current floods referring tothese floods as very large, irregular, and uncontrolled withmajor floods occurring every year.

“Since before and after the construction of the CahoraBassa dam, the floods were every 5 years in the rainy sea-son, now that Cahora Bassa is ours everything is out ofcontrol, it is necessary to comply with a discharge plan sothat we can control our production. We now have uncon-trolled floods and violent droughts.” (Mutarara, SucamialaCommunity)

“Now the HCB is responsible –where they resolve thewater! They cause major flooding every three months, thisyear there have been at least three; in March, June, andJuly. With the construction of the HCB the problem offlooding has increased from 97 for here it has worsened.”(Mutarara, Catchaço Community)

40% of the communities to whom the issue was put statedthat in the last decade there have been floods every 2 or 3months.

“Before, the rain was the factor responsible for floodswhich were small and every five years in the rainy season,now the HCB is responsible and floods are major andevery 2 months.” (Mutarara, Baué Community)

Still, the remaining nine communities also refer to the lastdecade as the most critical period, ranking the floods asvery frequent and irregular and occurring at least twice ayear and which no longer occur in accordance with therains. A group of fishermen from Caia note that this yearthe river filled four times in 3 weeks.

“Now water from the Zambezi River does not accompanythe rain. In June there was a large flood that came fromHCB and this time it filled four times in three weeks.”(Caia, Chandimba and Inhampunga Communities)

According to the Administrator of Marromeu, this yearthere was a period in which the ARA Zambezi summonedall Board Members, representatives of the District Govern-ment of Caia, Mopeia, Moatize, Marromeu, Tambara, andChemba, the NSA (National Roads Administration), Trans-marítima, WWF, INGC, FIPAG, Mota-Engil, MphandaNkuwa Hydroelectric, among others to a meeting thattook place on 10 September under the theme of ZambeziRiver Water Management. At this meeting, the HCB saidthat the floodgates would remain closed for an extendedperiod during the dry season, which took effect this yearand which would be repeated until 2013, due to the HCBneeding to carry out maintenance work and improvementof the structure of the dam (REABDESC project - dam spill-ways rehabilitation project - the project will be imple-mented by ALSTOM under the supervision of INGEROPAfrica) and that for this to happen the gates should beclosed. According to other sources, who prefer not to beidentified here, an agreement was discussed and estab-lished, in which the Directors had an active role, that the

Figure 7: Interview with the Baue Community. Photograph by Anabela Lemos




time period should be from April to 15 November so as tocoincide with the sowing season thus giving time for thepeople to carry out the harvest of their products. Thisagreement will take effect from next year because 2010was a year marked by consecutive floods wherein thecommunity lost more than twice the crops already plantedand the agreement was only signed in September. It ishowever noted that all 15 interviewed communities in thisstudy were aware of the situation, as it relates to this year,and they were already waiting for the waters to rise fromNovember 15 upon the reopening of the floodgates.

This will be a situation, experienced in due course thatcould serve as an example not only in what concerns agood example of forewarning, which you can see, provingthat the early warning system works, with the most re-mote users of the Zambezi being informed, but also in thefuture in terms of integrated management and effectiveparticipation of stakeholders. If this agreement can suc-ceed, this could be the basis for negotiations for entering anew era of arrangements in which all users can take ad-vantage of the management of the Basin and the interestsof all may be taken into account with the same weightwithout the priorities and interests of some being unfairlytaken into account at the expense of the rights of others,and the most privileged decision makers.

4) Environmental Impacts

All 15 interviewed communities reported that the river haschanged and now has more extensive banks where sand isdeposited and are thus wider, erosion is a very obvious fac-tor. Now the river overflows more often and more easilyand has a much larger wetland which floods much morequickly.

“The river now, since 1997, has a lot of sand and overflowsmuch more easily, floods are now out of control and causeconstant erosion. Before, the water was quickly drainedbut now stands for a long time, between one flood and thenext the water does not drain away and sometimes re-mains for 3 months.” (Mutarara, Catchaço Community)

Everyone refers to the river as being far wider and lessdeep, with fewer islands and bends. The fishing commu-nity of Caia refer to the river as now having a muchstronger current, which coincides with what most commu-nities mean when they speak of the aggressiveness offloodwater of nowadays. Unregulated and frequent floodsare factors cited by all respondents, but the time of thechange varies according to the age and memory of thepeople.

“We have felt the change since 2006, the river is now lessdeep, has more sand, is wider, and the floods are responsi-ble for this.” (Marromeu, Jiwa Community)

Older people who could have been witness to the changeof the river from the beginning of that change at a national

level report the construction of the Cahora Bassa dam asbeing the first factor of change. (Chandimba and Inham-punga Communities)

“Between 1975 and 1976 we noticed a change in the river.The river was once deeper, narrower, with more bends andnow the current is stronger, HCB was the factor ofchange.” (Caia, Chandimba and Inhampunga Communi-ties)

It was, however, the uncontrolled floods of recent yearswhich all communities mentioned as the aggravating fac-tor of the state of the river. 20% of the interviewed com-munities refer to the period of 2001-2003 as the periodfrom which it was noted the worsening of uncontrolleddischarges by the HCB, while 40% stated that the changein the structure of the river due to uncontrolled dis-charges by the HCB has worsened significantly since2005-2008 included in this group are the communities ofthe Districts of Tambara, Mutarara, and Marromeu.

Another aspect referred to by most communities is theman-animal conflict. Uncontrolled floods and the inher-ent problem of the structure of the river have increasedthis conflict because the banks of the river have under-gone transformation and crocodiles have greater access tobanks.

“The uncontrolled floods have worsened the crocodile sit-uation and their attacks on our communities are more fre-quent.” (Mutarara, Catchaço, Marromeu, and JiwaCommunities)

This factor coupled with the unpredictability of floodsseems to have caused a disturbance not only in the popu-lations of crocodiles but also of existing hippopotamus andsnakes, increasing the number of attacks on the popula-tion by these animals, especially children who accompanytheir mothers while fetching water or washing clothes inthe river or even when they are on their farms on thebanks of the river.

“When it floods the hippopotamus, crocodiles and snakesflee creating major conflicts.” (Caia, Chandimba and In-hampunga Communities)




Figure 8: Average Monthly Flow of the Zambezi River

5) Hydrology

The Zambezi River has always traditionally presented ahigh seasonal flow, with low flow evident during the dryseason and a flood inducing high flow during the summer.Cahora Bassa altered this flow by releasing stored water togenerate energy during the dry season, and using theflood inducing high flow of summer to fill the reservoir toprepare for the low flows of the dry season. Despite KaribaDam also being on the Zambezi, it is possible to verify fromthe graph below (Fig. 8), that comparing the natural flow ofthe Zambezi River (yellow line) with the influx or inflowinto the Cahora Bassa reservoir (blue line) the differenceis low and still has a seasonal flow, and a major reason forthis is that several tributaries which flow into the riverdownstream of the Kariba dam. However, when compar-ing the level of influx into the Cahora Bassa reservoir (blueline) with the discharges from Cahora Bassa (red line) it isverified that discharges are fully regulated. In short, theinflux follows a seasonal pattern (Blue Line, Fig.8), as op-posed to the discharges, which are regulated and constant(Red Line, Fig.8).

Thus the regulation of the flow of the river by CahoraBassa dam can be considered as an impact of the differ-ence between the inflow and the reservoir discharges(green line). Similarly one can determine the impacts ofdams upstream of Cahora Bassa in the regulation of theflow of the river by comparing the natural flow of the riverwith the influx into the Cahora Bassa reservoir (darkbrown line), however this comparison does not considerthe potential impact of climate change that is forecast forthe Zambezi Basin, there may be a reduction in the flood-ing period which implies that given the determined im-

pact could be relatively lower due to the contribution ofclimate change.

On the other hand, the issue of the potential impact of cli-mate change does not apply to the specific case of CahoraBassa because the comparison is made with current dataof inflow and discharge.

Cahora Bassa causes changes in the natural flow of theriver in the order of 500 to 1000m3 / s above the naturalflow in the period June to December and from Decemberto May there is a reduction in the natural flow that reaches2000m3 / s. It is verifiable that the dams upstream of Ca-hora Bassa cause changes in the natural flow of the river,and during the period July to February the flow can be upto 500m3 / s below the natural flow, which representsabout half of what is caused by Cahora Bassa. Regardingthe natural flow of the period March to June its lowestpoint was reached of around 1200m3 / s below the naturalflow.

The Lower Zambezi no longer follows the natural floodregime, and the flood plains remain dry during the hotsummer every year, except in the rainiest. The regulatedflow of the Zambezi has allowed wet areas to dry, previ-ously fed by the floodwaters of the Zambezi. In the past,the Dona Ana Bridge had more than ten of its pillars im-mersed in the waters of the Zambezi River, but currentlyonly four pillars are in the water (Fig. 9). Dry channels andarms along the Zambezi are becoming increasingly com-mon, with many of these being completely disconnectedfrom the main channel of the river.(16) The river is no




longer a river of multi-channels and side branches thatare constantly changing, instead it has become a river witha more singular main channel with more stable islands,arms and branches.(16)

“Now we are in the process of restoring the Salan River,since the need arose due to silting of the river and every-thing is working very well.” (Marromeu, District Service ofPlanning and Infrastructure)

The water released by the Cahora Bassa erodes the banksand deepens the central part of the riverbed due to theneed to balance the water sediment content.(9, 16) The deep-ening of the riverbed later prevents flood waters frombreaking the banks and allows for the feeding of the dryfloodplains with necessary water. With the passage oftime increasingly larger floods will be necessary for it tobe possible to satisfy the amount of water needed for wet-lands and flood plains, making the rehabilitation of theLower Zambezi increasingly complicated.(8, 11, 16, 17)

Figure 9: Dona Ana Bridge, taken on the same day of the year, the image to theleft corresponds with a photograph taken in 1975 and the image to the right is aphotograph taken in 1997.(16)

The dry flood plains became a remote landscape, wet,rugged and inaccessible for people in an accessible land-scape, hence uncontrolled hunting and poaching in theflood plains have increased to alarming levels reducing,since 1970, the huge herds of buffalo by 95%.(1, 7, 11, 18) The re-maining herds are concentrated in areas where seasonalfloods still occur on a small-scale due to small unregulatedrivers coming from the highlands of Cheringoma. Eventhe elephant populations, which once occupied the perma-nently flooded marshes within the Delta, have became ac-cessible to poachers and are now almost nonexistent. Thesame is true for the herds of previously abundant Piva (wa-terbuck), sable antelope, and zebra.(1, 11, 18)

The dry flood plains have serious consequences for biodi-versity and the populations of large animals are not theonly ones at risk. The now dry flood plains quantitativelyreduced several species of herbaceous plant in the wet-lands and allowed for the invasion of woody savanna.(16, 17, 21)

The other herbivores can no longer control the growth ofplants, further altering the vegetation.

6) Hydrological Forecast Model Used

The hydrological forecasting model used to predict flood-ing in the Zambezi Basin which is also used regionally, isthe SARCOF (Southern African Regional Climate OutlookForum) which is allegedly not the most suitable, with themost appropriate model being DRIFT though it is fairly un-known and requires more data for greater accuracy. (GPZMarromeu)

The current model used by the ARA-Zambezi nationally isthe SAC model (Flood Warning System) that being opera-tional permits the evaluation of the characteristics of floodwaves and the degree of flooding that will be generated inthe different sections of the river. SAC allows for the mon-itoring of flood waves from the dam to the mouth as wellas the conversion of the volume of precipitation in theLower Zambezi basin in terms of drainage.

SAC is also fed daily, in two periods, the data of the effluentflow from Cahora Bassa which is sent to the ARA-Zambezito complement the data collected by the ARA-Zambezi inhydrometric and pluviometric stations so that the abovemodel can determine the nature of the runoff generatedin the Basin downstream from Cahora Bassa at all timesand can predict well in advance the degree of flooding inrisk areas. SAC was designed to obtain data flow based onthe discharges of HCB and the volume of rainfall in theLower Zambezi. As the ARA-Zambezi operates this model,it is for them to check whether the developed modelmeets the commitments and risk management needs ofdownstream. However, it was reported by several sourcesincluding the HCB that improving the network of hydrom-eteorological stations certainly will contribute greatly tothe enhanced use of the SAC model for various purposeswhich it could represent in terms of the overall globalmanagement of the Basin and main channel of the Zam-bezi provided that certain conditions improve. Since thebasic principles used in flood propagation models are usu-ally the same, improving the current model or the suc-cessful implementation of a new model depends on howthis will be fed data and the initial conditions for its cali-bration (topographic data, vegetation, and other physio-graphic elements of the basin and river bed, the moredetailed the more accurate the model). Similarly and inaddition, there must be an integrated system with a com-ponent that allows the prediction of the volume of precipi-tation with the longest period possible. The forecasts andthe amount of rainfall recorded in real time, collectedfrom the network of stations across the region, will serveas input for the drainage model.

The HCB also has a model to evaluate the hydrometric lev-els caused by discharges and the time that the wave willtake to reach various points downstream, constituting thehydrologic simulation results obtained by the HCB techni-cal support relevant to decision making by ARA-Zambeziwhich using the means and authority capacity it immedi-ately spreads to the competent bodies.




According to the ARA-Zambezi and the representative ofthe WWF Marromeu, the forecasting model is outdatedgiven the changes in the river, the flow, and the parame-ters for emergency hazard assessment currently in force.According to these institutions there are very few peoplenow living along the river and many of the flow measure-ment stakes are not in their places and no longer corre-spond to the reading given the changes in the river (Figure10).

“It is necessary to revise the hydrometric scales, the sce-nario on which they are based was the basis for other phe-nomena, now, with changes in the climate and river thereis a need for revision. ‘The scales are outdated, not manypeople still exist on the banks of the river. So, when thereis a serious emergency people no longer connect and arecaught unprepared.” (Marromeu Administration)

It is therefore essential that the current model in use isupdated, not least to take advantage this but with moredata entry. The review of the hydrometric scales and theirlocation is also an inescapable fact in that the data to beentered into the model are feasible and its interpretation

Figure 10: Hydrometric Scales in Boroma, Tete. Photograph by Anabela Lemos

and measures taken are the most correct, as weather fore-casts imply the existence of a network of stations andscales within the region as well as data from satellite ob-servations and by a meteorological radar network.

Finally, it is necessary that basic conditions are created sothat Mozambique can be up to the effective integration ofa broader system of shared management of the Basin,which will supposedly follow the establishment and sign-ing of agreements between countries that share this Basinand that for this effect has joined efforts (according to theinterview of HCB). It is necessary to improve internalcommunication systems so that they are equivalent andcan be inserted into the regional system.

7) Flood Early Warning System

The ARA-Zambezi produces the annual contingency planspecifically for flooding, similar to weather forecasts and,in the case of a flood situation, the ARA-Zambezi has theSAC model that together with the SARCOF and the dis-charge simulation models an integrated analysis of the sit-uation regarding the region can be made. Even so, duringthe rainy season they organize meetings involving theHCB, DNA, ARA-Zambezi, and the INGC where the Reser-voir Management Plan is analyzed in detail, giving theseinstitutions the necessary information to be disseminated.

There are several institutions that are concerned with im-proving communication, such as the Tambara Administra-tion, Marromeu WWF, Mutarara World Vision,Administration and GPZ of Marromeu, which correspondsto about 31% of interviewed institutions who allege thatthey need timely and useful information.

“The Zambezi valley is very vast, it was important thatthere was circulation of information, it was important tohave useful information at a useful time.” (Tambara Ad-ministration)

The distance factor with the ARA-Zambezi, or Tete City,seems to be directly related to the number of concernsraised regarding this communication problem. All theseinstitutions reflect the need to create or better use the ex-isting structures to create a communication platformwhere information can be circulated to all interested par-ties and users of the basin equally and simultaneously.

“It is increasingly difficult to communicate and share in-formation, especially large new companies.” (Tete, INGC)

The need for better communication between users is notrestricted to a national level but across borders. The Zam-bezi Basin is a shared basin, therefore the responsibility ofthe cumulative impacts downstream has to be shared, butfor that they must be discussed in a timely and participa-tory fashion. Communication with Kariba seems to be anunknown issue to the interviewed communities and insti-tutions. Of these only the INGC Tete, the Administrator of




Marromeu, the WWF, and the HCB, spoke at the recentbeginning of understanding with Kariba, a well known sit-uation at the level of the Zambezi Basin Committee, whichthe NGO Justiça Ambiental is a part of and which has beena frequent member in the last few biannual meetings.

According to the HCB, currently with the revitalization ofthe JOTC (Joint Operational Technical Committee), theHCB can exchange hydrological information with the damoperators and managers of water resources upstream, par-ticularly the ZINWA (Zimbabwe National Water Author-ity), the DWAF (Department of Water Affairs of Zambia),the ZRA (Zambezi River Authority), ZESCO (Zambia Elec-tricity Supply Company), KNBPS (Kariba North BankPower Station), and the KSBPS (Kariba South Power StationBank).(22)

Nevertheless, according to the same source, the improve-ment of communication between the two will depend onthe existence of networks of stations; meteorological radarstations and others, still depending on the communica-tions system and the installation of a station that producesforecasts for the basin. In addition to these, it will also de-pend on the degree of inter-institutional relations in theZambezi Basin. Honouring the river sharing agreementsof the region, which includes the Zambezi, it is hoped thatthe instruments are created to improve communicationand respect for the interests of riparian countries.

According to the HCB, in this context, it feels that it is im-proving the relationship of communication particularlywith Kariba, as there was a technical and executive meet-ing in Songo on 11 and 12 January 2010 with the executivedirectors of HCB / Kariba / ZESCO to discuss the means forexchanging information in real time, which was an impor-tant milestone in strengthening the relations betweenthree major dam operators on the Zambezi River Basin,thus moving towards a system of coordinated operation ofhydraulic infrastructure in the Zambezi River Basin.Other involved bodies include; ZINWA, DWAF, ZESCO,KSBPC, ARA-Zambezi, DNA, WWF (Zambezi Environmen-tal Flow Program). The WWF now performs the role ofcoordination and financing and over the last two years thecommunication relationship between the two dams has,according to the representative of the WWF in Mar-romeu, greatly improved. The WWF had a major role inthis process wherein there was an exchange of experi-ences between the HCB, Kariba, and Kafue. A deal that en-sures no one can discharge without warning was signed inthe U.S. and witnessed by NGOs and CSOs, to be specified.According to the same source, government bodies werealso involved, such as MICOA. However, the agreementamong governments is still a step to be materialized in thefuture, as agreements are currently being established atthe level of the dam managers.

According to the consulted communities and in accor-dance with the level of information they have, the systemdesigned and implemented works using the Local Com-mittees for Disaster Management as support. The com-

munities are satisfied with the way it operates becausethey feel they are part of the system since these commit-tees contain effective representatives of their interests orproblems elected by the communities themselves. Theproblem lies in the early warning of the communities andthe increasing numbers of discharges which are releasedoutside of the rainy season. The communities claim that 1,2 or 3 days notice is not enough time to ensure the harvestof their crops on their farms. It would be the appropriatetime needed to save lives and property, but that was whenthey lived along the river, not now that the vast majorityare resettled. Until not too long ago, the management ofdischarges allowed the community to do it’s planting ineach of the farms (the upper and lower zone), in accor-dance with the rainy or dry season thus ensuring at leasttwo harvests per year. This was due primarily to two fac-tors: the early years of dam management (late 70’s) coin-cided with the recent independence of the countrywherein the political system prioritized the welfare of thepeople and ensured that the discharges were planned asbest possible considering the cycle of crops and people'sneeds, and at the same time, with the initial period of theoperation of the dam itself under the control of the Por-tuguese regime in a newly independent country, thus con-ditioned under their management. The second factorrelates to the period between the late 80's and early 90’swhich stood out because it was a long dry period so thewater discharges were more limited. These two factorsmade it difficult to perceive of the implications or themanagement of the dam. From the mid-90’s, there was anormalization of weather conditions and at the same timethere was a shift in priorities in that hydropower produc-tion and various economic interests outweighed the inter-ests of the people.

Another point raised by all the interviewed communi-ties(15) is that the information disclosed is not the most ap-propriate in order to facilitate understanding by thecommunities. When there are new discharges only thevolume of water (m3) that each discharge will carry andthe number of gates to be opened is released. This kind oflanguage is not understandable nor can it be translatedinto the local reality because it does not refer to the impli-cations of these discharges in terms of the rising waterlevel (meters) in different locations, which depends on thewater velocity, the amount of water discharged, the localrelief, etc.

“They only warn us of how many floodgates they are goingto open, not how much the water will raise!” (Mutarara,Catchaço Community)

Another issue to mention is that of the notice period, com-monly added to the time of the arrival of water, whichvaries according to each location and requires taking intoaccount the distance from the wall of the Cahora Bassadam to: Boroma and Tete with 20 hours of delay, up to 2days to get to Tambara, Mutarara in 4 days, 4-5 days to Caiaand 6 days to Marromeu, which often leads to error inMarromeu of saying that flood notice is about 8 days.




Communication Scheme between the Various Sectorsand Players

The Regional Water Administration of the Zambezi Basin(ARA-Zambezi) is the entity responsible for the manage-ment of the basin and also for the dissemination of infor-mation to all Zambezi basin users in Mozambique. It has aclose relationship with the HCB and assumes a connectingrole between the HCB and the rest of the river users. Allinformation relating to the management of the reservoiris directed daily to the ARA-Zambezi which has the re-sponsibility of spreading this information to differentusers; the HCB uses other channels to get information in-cluding the Basin Management Committee (which meetsordinarily twice a year, and through this meeting the HCBdivulges its reservoir management plan and all other in-formation deemed relevant to all the representatives ofriver users), the result of the water balance is sent outdaily, weekly and monthly to the ARA-Zambezi, the Na-tional Water Directorate (DNA), the National Institute forFisheries Research (INIP), and Electricity of Mozambique(EDM), and in situations where it is necessary to changethe regime of discharges where possible the HCB dissemi-nates this information to users in general, giving priorityto communication with the ARA-Zambezi (Fig. 12). Withthe private and academic sectors the HCB has participatedin seminars wherein knowledge of the management of theCahora Bassa reservoir is disseminated and therein has is-sued communications to the different entities and popula-tions in general about its possible management planwhich takes into account meteorological forecasts, whichis always a concerted action together with the ARA-Zam-bezi.

Thus the ARA-Zambezi is the vehicle by which informa-tion is disseminated. It falls to the HCB to prepare reser-voir management plans into which discharge plans areintegrated. These in turn are submitted and agreed to bythe ARA-Zambezi whose mission it is to disseminate theinformation to the different users. According to the HCB,the decision to discharge is made in a coordinated mannerthe HCB submits it to the ARA- Zambezi, which in turnchecks whether the conditions exist for its implementa-tion, and only after that discharges are made. The ARA-Zambezi is thus the first to be informed by the HCB aboutan anomalous situation a minimum of 72 hours in advancevia Radio Mozambique, telephone, or courier, so the HCB isthe decision-making body. The decision involves the eval-uation of the meteorological situation of the basin, mainlyfrom Cahora Bassa and Kariba, and the consent of theARA-Zambezi, after creating the conditions. The ARA-Zambezi is the disseminator of information to the users ofthe basin. In the rainy season, the data from stations oper-ated by the ARA-Zambezi (with alert levels previously es-tablished in coordination with DNA to different siteswhere the superior body is MOPH - Ministry of PublicWorks and Housing are sent daily to the HCB, with 72hours in advance during normal regimes and exception-ally in an emergency less time (Fig. 12).

In an emergency, the ARA-Zambezi, as the authority shallimmediately notify the INGC, which in turn mobilizes thenecessary resources via CENOE (National Centre forEmergency Operations) and all means available to mini-mize the effects of the flood, which could involve the CivilProtection, State Administration, downstream dams, themedia, NGOs, and even the Armed Forces if the situationwarrants it.

The ARA-Zambezi uses the SAC model (Flood WarningSystem) which allows for the evaluation of the characteris-tics and extent of the flood wave from the dam to the rivermouth. Normally during the rainy season, there are morerestricted meetings involving the HCB, DNA, ARA-Zam-bezi, and INGC where the Reservoir Management Plan isanalyzed in detail, giving these institutions the necessaryinformation to disseminate. Another additional model isprovided by the HCB that allows the assessment of hydro-metric levels caused by discharges and the time that thiswave takes to reach various points downstream, which to-gether with the other models allows a more complete, de-tailed, and comprehensive analysis of the situation. TheARA-Zambezi, using their means and authority, dissemi-nates quality information immediately to the above men-tioned bodies.

In an emergency, the HCB also communicates with theDistrict Administration of Cahora Bassa to request publicdissemination of information to the entire populationdownstream of the dam. In the case of another, the ARAresponsible for the location is also informed by the ARA-Zambezi as is the case of Tambara in Manica Provincewhich is under the responsibility of the ARA-Centro andtakes its role in the chain. The ARA then informs theProvincial government and other government bodies

Figure 11: Sucamiala Community, Mutarara. Photograph by Anabela Lemos




through official channels as well as to other users includ-ing the private sector of interest via television, e-mail, tele-phone, cell phone, radio, in accordance with the urgency ofthe situation. On the other hand, the ARA-Zambezi, in co-ordination with the INGC, via Provincial government thatinforms the Districts (Administrators), which activates theEmergency Operations Committee (EOC) and this in turnactivates the Local Committees for Risk and Disaster Man-agement (CLGRC) at the same time disseminating the in-formation via Community Radio, a channel through which

Figure 12: Communication scheme and bodies involved in the Zambezi Basin

all users are advised to lowest level. The CLGRC in turnhave their own radio which they use to communicate di-rectly with community leaders. The CLGRC have commu-nity leadership, which form part of the District Secretaries,traditional leaders, and religious leaders (influential per-sonalities and representatives), a total of 15-18 people (Fig.12).

The INGC plays the role of mitigating body by taking ap-propriate action to minimize the risk of life and propertyduring situations of risk or disaster and as such has fullpower of decision. In a flood situation the ContingencyPlan kicks in, set annually at a provincial level, with theparticipation of district bodies, with various scenarios, ac-cording to what is possible, and is then submitted to thecentral level. The development of this plan is a participa-tory process where all state institutions, local civil society,religious leaders and the private sector are involved.

Many of the interviewed communities refer to the warn-ing of flooding as being made 2 to 3 days in advance, whichcoincides with the 72 hours reported by different institu-tions (HCB, ARA-Zambezi, WWF, INGC), unless it is an un-expected situation that could endanger the structure ofthe dam. There were however four communities, Boroma,two others near Mphanda Nkuwa, and finally the Sucami-ala Community in Mutarara District, all belonging to theProvince of Tete, which state that they often receive the in-formation one day in advance, corresponding in terms ofpercentage to about 26%, which is relevant. It seems tohave happened in June 2010, when there was a flash floodwith very catastrophic consequences for all communitiesdownstream of the HCB.




8) Climatic Changes

Climate change is often associated with global warmingand while that is true it does not always reflect the realityat a local level but instead the overall trend. Locally, thetrend can be quite the opposite and it becomes increas-ingly difficult to predict the trend and the implications ofclimate change. However, the quality and level of reliabil-ity of mathematical models of climate change have in-creased and although it is difficult to predict small detailswith confidence, the general trends are strongly sup-ported and accepted by experts.

In the case of the Lower Zambezi, it is expected that themaximum temperatures for the warmest month of theyear will be higher (Fig. 13). Currently, in Tete province,temperatures are mainly between 32 ° C and 36o C, butthese are to propagate downstream, by the Zambezi andthe province of Sofala. It is clear also that the CCM3 modelprovides a "hotspot" of maximum temperatures above 40 °C in the region of the proposed Mphanda Nkuwa dam.This is troubling because the physiological processes ofplants and the growth rates only function normally from 0° C and 40 ° C, above which serious impacts and physicalinjury occur. The population of the area whose livelihooddepends mainly on agriculture could suffer serious im-pacts.

Current

Forecast

20 - 24

24 - 28

28 -32

32 - 38

38 - 40

40 - 44

Temperature(ºC)

20 - 24

24 - 28

28 -32

32 - 38

38 - 40

40 - 44

“In June this year almost everything was flooded, and wewere left without communication.” (Mutarara, SucamialaCommunity)

Currently the HCB is the decision maker and the first in-formant of the decision made. This decision takes into ac-count such factors as the priority of the company, theproduction of electricity, and the needs of users of theBasin, among them the private sector. The ARA-Zambezidespite participating in decision making does not havethis power, it is the HCB that has this power, given the lackof ability and means to fulfill the given role, the manage-ment and coordination of the Basin. The ARA Zambezi isstrongly dependent on the HCB in technical and financialterms and this factor does not allow this body of coordina-tion to be truly autonomous. Thus it is difficult to be im-partial in the management of the Basin, putting the mostdisadvantaged at risk and putting them increasingly at themercy of the will and interests of large companies in-stalling themselves in the basin.

Temperatura(ºC)

Figure 13: Maximum Temperature of the Hottest Month in the LowerZambezi, current and forecast




Figure 14: Average Temperature of the Hottest Trimester in the Lower Zam-bezi, current and forecast (Precipitation)

Current

Forecast

Figure 15: Driest Trimester in the Lower Zambezi, current and forecast

Current

Forecast

Despite expecting an increase in maximum temperaturean increase in average temperature of the Lower Zambeziis not expected. As shown in several studies of the impactof climate change, this case shows that there will not onlybe increases in the maximum temperature, but also in-creases in the amplitude between maximum and mini-mum temperatures. In the case of the Lower Zambeziminimum temperature reduction offsets the increase inmaximum temperatures, resulting in an overall decreaseof the average temperature in the warmest quarter of theyear over time (Fig. 14). The full implications of thesechanges are complicated and difficult to understand intheir entirety without having done a more detailed studyfocusing on the impacts of climate change. Changes in ex-treme temperatures and the increased range of tempera-tures can affect air currents and other meteorologicalfactors in the future that could exacerbate climate changelocally. The higher temperatures may also have a negativeimpact on soil productivity.

The impacts of climate change on precipitation are mostimportant to this study and easiest to understand (Fig.15and 16). The CCM3 model predicts an increase in the ex-tremes, meaning a decrease in rainfall during the dry sea-son, especially in the delta region where rainfall canreduce to about 40% (Fig.15). On the other hand, a signifi-cant increase in the level of precipitation is expected dur-ing the rainy season along the Lower Zambezi, from400-720mm to 720-980mm (Fig.16). In addition, precipita-tion in the region located north of the Cahora Bassa damcould increase to a level of 1500mm which is nearly dou-ble the current level.

These changes suggest that there may be a worsening ofthe current situation of food insecurity because of the cli-mate impacts on which subsistence activities depend inthese communities. The lower rainfall during the dry sea-son forces people to depend more on existing water bod-ies, especially in the Zambezi River. This can exacerbatethe settlement patterns already in itself problematic andincrease the number of people living in floodplains andother areas of high flood risk. On the other hand, increasedrainfall during the flood season increases the potential im-pacts of these floods.

Of concern is how these trends are forecast. The trendspredicted by the CCM3 climate model do not occur lin-early, but with dips and peaks that can be interpreted as anincrease in extreme cases of flood and drought. However,the climate change models are sensitive to assumptionsand the quality of available data where trends already oc-curring have been analyzed and compared results.

86% of interviewed communities in which the issue ofwhether the weather / rain had changed was discussed, re-sponded without doubt that yes, all of whom referred tothe fact that it rains for less time.

“The rain no longer comes according to the calendar.”(Marromeu, Jiwa Community)

11 - 15

15 - 19

19 - 23

23 - 27

27 - 32

0.0-24.0

24.0-48.0

48.0-73.0

73.0-97.0

Precipitation(mm)

11 - 15

15 - 19

19 - 23

23 - 27

27 - 32

Precipitation(mm)

0.0-24.0

24.0-48.0

48.0-73.0

73.0-97.0

97.0 -121.0

97.0 -121.0

Temperature(ºC)

Temperature(ºC)




The communities are clear that the rainy season was al-tered, which in addition to having been delayed (before therainy season began in September - November and couldgo on until April), is now restricted to just one month,some referring to January while others refer to Februaryas nature’s chosen month.

“Before it rained hard and now it only drizzles. In the past,life was much easier, now with the lack of rain, it is increas-ingly difficult.” (Marromeu, Bauaze Community)

Most of the interviewed communities also note that eventhis month, the number of times it has rained is very low, 1to 3 times and that when it rains, it is torrential rain whichdestroys all crops.

“The rainy season is shorter and when it rains it is torren-tial, before, the season was from November to June, now itrains in February, is very strong and destroys everything.”(Mutarara, Catchaço Community)

The population of this area, historically and culturally, hasalways had two farms, one in the upper zone, away fromflooded areas (in the rainy season) and another in the low-land area on the banks of the river in dry season, not sus-ceptible to flooding, each them with an average of twohectares. The fact that the rainy season is restricted toonly one month, and with the few times it rains, sets asidethe feasibility of the farm in the high area since it dependsentirely on the continued blessing and gentle rains of therainy season. Thus the population is limited to farm thelowlands, making them doubly vulnerable to and destinedfor food shortages due to the irregularities of the floodsdue to the amount of discharges that have been felt in re-cent years.

Figure 16: Most Rainy Trimester in the Lower Zambezi, current and forecast

Actual

Previsão

50-170

170-290

Precipitation(mm)

290-410

410-530

530-650

50-170

170-290

Precipitation(mm)

290-410

410-530

530-650



IV CONCLUSIONSRiver Basin Management in the Middle and Lower Zambezi in Critical Periods

Current discharges do not take into account the needs ofall users of the Basin and changes are made according tothe extraordinary demands of large users. The manage-ment has not been a participatory process, local communi-ties living close to riverbanks are without an active voice,their needs are not taken into account such as the sowingseason, harvest time, and their rights are not respected.Part of the problem is the lack of an Integrated Basin Man-agement Plan wherein the interests of all can be inte-grated and safeguarded.

The role of the ARA-Zambezi is not clear. Most users ofthe Basin do not distinguish the roles and responsibilitiesof the HCB and the ARA-Zambezi. The main coordinatingfunction of the ARA-Zambezi is not effective and this is re-flected in the malfunctioning of the system of flood warn-ing, and this is compounded by weak policies and thelimited capacity of the coordinating bodies. One exampleis the time of notice given to different users of the basin, 72hours, which is not enough, is often disregarded.

The hydrological model currently in use is not beingtaken advantage of in its entirety and not all the necessaryand sufficient data is included, resulting in poor accuracyand short lead time in making decisions and communicat-ing with the Local Committees for Risk and Disaster Man-agement. However there are other hydrologic modelsavailable, like "DRIFT", that are internationally respected,with good databases, and which are not being duly consid-ered.

Excessive regulation of water combined with the misman-agement of the competent bodies leads to the livelihoodsof communities being constantly at risk and they are nowmore vulnerable to the impacts of flooding. By contrastthe work done by the INGC has minimised more catastro-phes. However it is always better to be safe than sorry, andaccording to the climate change modelling results the dif-ficulties currently faced by communities will be exacer-bated, so there is a great need to guarantee efficient andsustainable management which takes into account theneeds of all users alike.

Figure 17: In search of water, Boroma Community, Tete.Photograph by Anabela Lemos



V RECOMMENDATIONS River Basin Management in the Middle and Lower Zambezi in Critical Periods

1) Any decisions or agreements established relating tomanagement issues of the Zambezi Basin must take intoaccount the needs of all users of the Basin. This should bea participatory process where communities must have avoice, taking into account their needs, time of sowing, har-vesting time, so that their rights are respected;

2) It is necessary to develop a discharge plan, that this is aparticipatory process taking into account the time neces-sary for cultivation of field crops and related to the differ-ent seasons (dry and rainy season). This plan onceprepared in a participatory manner, must be respected bythe entities responsible for managing the Basin. When theagreement is breached those responsible must be identi-fied and if negligence is detected penalties should applyby means of compensation payment to the affected ac-cording to the loss of goods, and taking into account thereality and significance of the local loss;

3) In preparing the discharge plan it is necessary to pre-de-fine areas and degrees of vulnerability, redefining theareas flooded during the rainy season near the riverbed,respecting the laws that define the use and profit of theland, establishing totally or partially protected zones, floodplains near the river bed, and redefine the alert levels;

4) Extraordinary demands of any of the major users to thebodies capable of managing the Basin cannot be grantedby the authority without taking into account the lossesand / or other needs of all the other users;

5) The development of the Integrated Management Plan ofthe Zambezi Basin is a priority and this must be a participa-tory process involving all users and their interests. Theseinterests must be taken into account with the same weightso that the interests of the bodies directly involved in themanagement do not constitute a priority;

6) A clear distinction needs to be made of the role of theARA-Zambezi and the HCB for the users of the ZambeziBasin;

7) It is necessary to ensure the participation of communi-ties and civil society organizations in the national and in-ternational forums aimed at the integrated managementof water resources of the Zambezi Basin;

8) The communication with the upstream dams is an im-portant process. However it is necessary to bring togetherefforts so that intergovernmental agreements can besigned, in the cases where they are not yet in force and re-spected as is the case of existing agreements. The man-agement of the Zambezi River Basin should be considereda priority at government level, taking into account thenumber of people living in adjacent areas and that some-how depend on this ecosystem for survival. The intergov-ernmental agreement is essential if issues such as disastercontrol may have a regional scope and ensure state secu-rity;

9) The information disseminated on discharges or anymatters related to the management of the Basin must bedirect, helpful, and easy to read for local communities.The volume of water (m3) to be discharged or the numberof floodgates to be opened is not comprehensible lan-guage and is not useful at a community level. It is neces-sary to translate this information in terms of the raisingwater level (metres) at least for the areas already mappedand considered at risk of flooding;

10) It is necessary to create a space, information office, net-working system that is not autonomous, so that communi-cation between the various representatives of interestedand affected parties of the Zambezi Basin is more fluent, sothat a fairer management plan is made;

Figure 18: From Sena to Mutarara, Donna Ana Bridge.Photograph by Anabela Lemos



V RECOMMENDATIONSRiver Basin Management in the Middle and Lower Zambezi in Critical Periods

11) Projects should be set up aimed at self-sustainability ofthe communities, especially those resettled which are thepoorest given that their location is now far from the activi-ties that guarantee their survival, and where access towater becomes more difficult. These projects should takeinto account the needs of local communities and thesecommunities should participate in project planning fromthe outset, with each project being directed to each partic-ular community. These projects should also be aimed atthe sustainability of the Local Committees for Risk andDisaster Management. These are made up of representa-tive members belonging to the community and the volun-tary work they offer is commendable, structuralmaintenance becomes difficult. The income from theseprojects can be an incentive;

12) The choice of location for the resettlement of commu-nities must take into account the conditions that the siteoffers, access to drinking water and electricity are majorfactors;

13) It is necessary when developing new projects or largeinvestments that interfere with the resources of commu-nities that these communities participate in the process,not only those of the surrounding locales or those classi-fied directly affected but also those who are indirectly af-fected and that depend directly on the resource inquestion for their survival. The characteristics and re-quirements of each particular community, like the num-ber of women, children, adolescents, elderly, disabled,chronic diseases, should be taken into account for thesenew projects or major investments to benefit all users andnot only take into account the interests of investors whenmaking decisions;

14) It is necessary to proceed with the rehabilitation andongoing maintenance of access roads, irrigation ditches,and other structures that given their state of degradationendanger surrounding communities at the time of floods,exponentially increasing the danger and damage causedby them. The Inhangoma, Anquazidoa, and Tcharre docks,and the elevated Nhane road are such examples;

15) It is necessary that the legislation provides that theopinion be mandatory and included officially at the dis-trict level in the process of drafting the Carta-de-Porte orissuance of license, permit or accompanying the imple-mentation of new projects. The opinion of the authoritiesat the district level is essential to provide appropriate safe-guards for local needs. The contribution of these shouldbe included and considered before making a decision.After the decision making it is not possible to consider allthe constraints and impacts analyzed or local knowledge,allocating time and resources improperly;

16) It is necessary to review the hydrometric scales. Thescenario on which the installation of these scales wasbased took into account criteria and phenomena alreadyoutdated. Currently the changes in the river and the phe-nomenon of climate change renders the scales outdated.Compounding this situation, currently there are a lot ofpeople living along the river and in an emergency situa-tion, given the scale of date, they are not properly takeninto account, and people are caught unprepared;

17) It is essential that an analysis of the hydrological modelcurrently in use is done and verify if it is right, fair and effi-cient. If indeed it is then it is necessary to assess the cur-rent data to be entered into this model and identify anyshortcomings to ensure a higher degree of confidence inthe results obtained. This model should be implementedor designed in order to be able to create harmony at a na-tional level so that the integrated management of waterresources is likely to take place;

18) Finally, it is important to ensure the dissemination ofthis particular study and its results, conclusions, and rec-ommendations at a level of the bodies involved in deci-sion-making on issues of management of the ZambeziBasin by means of meetings.

Presentation and discussion of this study at a meeting ofthe Committee of the Zambezi Basin, and sending thestudy to others involved may be a starting point.


VI Constraints

The difficulty of access to information remains a major obstacle in con-ducting studies in Mozambique. The availability of information, sup-posedly in the public domain, is still at the mercy of the individualswho hold it.

Despite numerous contacts and requests made, in some institutions(governmental and non-governmental) we observed a clear apathy andlack of interest in providing the requested information, evident in thetype of information provided including in the questionnaires.

Another aspect the work team faced was the lack of access to many ofthe more remote communities, and these were of greatest interest forthis study because they are the most dependent on water resourcesand thus more vulnerable. This difficulty of access has increased theexpected time spent in the field and may also have limited somewhatthe number of communities to be visited.

Figure 19: Drizzle, Mutarara Community. Photograph by Sílvia Dolores




VII Bibliography

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12. BENTO, C., 2005: Settlement Patterns; Workshop on water management for the Zambezi Delta – Evaluation of Scenarios, Maputo, 5-6 Septem-ber, 2005, pp9.

13. CHRISTIE, F. & HANLON, J., 2003: Mozambique and the Great Flood of 2000; Oxford Press.

14. DAVIES, B. R., 1986: The Zambezi River System.; In: DAVIES, B. R. & WALKER, K. F., (eds): The Ecology of River Systems. Monogr. Biol. 60: 225–267.; Dr. W. Junk, Dordrecht.

15. DAVIES, B. R. (ed.), 1998: The Sustainable Utilization of the Cahora Bassa Dam and the Valley of the Lower Zambezi.; Proceedings of the CahoraBassa Workshop, Songo, 29 September – October 02, 1997.; Arquivos do Patrimonial Cultural, Maputo, 48 pp.

16. DAVIES, B. R., BEILFUSS, R. D. & THOMS, M. C., 2000: Cahora Bassa retrospective, 1974–1997: effects of flow regulation on the Lower ZambeziRiver; Verh. Internat. Verein. Limnol. 27: 1-9.

17. DAVIES, B. R., 2002-2005: Professor at the University of Cape Town and world renown expert on the Zambezi River system, Various interviewsand personal communication.

18. FUNSTON, P. & BILAS, E., 2005: Large Mammals; Workshop on water management for the Zambezi Delta – Evaluation of Scenarios, Maputo, 5-6September, 2005, pp6.

19. HILLMANN, C. & TAREDAL, l., 2003: FIVAS Results from a study trip; The Mepanda Unkua Project – a planned regulation of the Zambezi River inMozambique; June 23 – July 18, Tete.

20. HOGUANE, A. M., 1997: Shrimp abundance and river runoff in Sofala Bank – the role of the Zambezi.; Workshop on The Sustainable Utilisationof the Cahora Bassa Dam and the Valley of the Lower Zambezi, Songo, September 29 – October 02, 1997, 16.

21. HUGHES, R. H. & HUGHES, J. S., 1992: A Directory of African Wetlands: 657–688. – World Conservation Union, Gland, Switzerland and Cam-bridge. UK/UNEP, Nairobi, Kenya/ WCMC, Cambridge, UK.



22. JESSEN, G. & SILVA, H., 2008: Gestão Hidrológica da Albufeira de Cahora Bassa em Períodos Críticos (Cheias e Secas); 5º Congresso Luso-Moçambicano de Engenharia & 2º Congresso de Engenharia de Moçambique, Tete

23. JUNK, W. J., BAYLEY, P. B. & SPARKS, R., 1989. The flood pulse concept in river floodplain systems. – In. DODGE, D. P. (ed.): Proceedings of the In-ternational Large River Symposium. Can. Spec. Publ. Aquat. Sci. 106: 110–127.

24. JUSTIÇA AMBIENTAL, 2003-2004: MPHANDA NKUWA: Dams and Development Capacity-Building project; Funded and prepared for Siemenpuu.

25. JUSTIÇA AMBIENTAL, 2003-2005: Zambezi trip reports and interviews; Part of various projects.

26. LEMOS, A. D., 2001-2005: Founder member and director of Justiça Ambiental; Various interviews and personal communication based on over5 years of experience in working with social issues along the Zambezi.

27. PAGE, D., 2001: Floods 'a predictable disaster'; Mail & Guardian, South Africa, 20 Mar.

28. SCUDDER, T., 1996: Caltech, Unpublished notes and personal communication to Prof. Davies

29. TIMBERLAKE, J., 1998. Biodiversity of Zambezi Basin Wetlands: review and preliminary assessment of available information. Phase 1. Final re-port. IUCN-ROSA, Harare, Zimbabwe.

30. TINLEY, K. L. & SOUSA DIAS, A. H. D., 1973: Wildlife reconnaissance of the Mid Zambezi Valley in Mozambique before the formation of the Ca-hora Bassa Dam.; Vet. Moçamb. Lourenço Marques 6: 103–131.

31. WHITE, R., 2001: Managing Water Disasters and Minimizing the Vulnerability of Mozambique to Floods; Paper was presented to the “6th An-nual Water Africa 2001” conference held 18-19 September 2001.



Province

District

Community

Tete Manica Sofala

Tete Mutatara Tambara Caia Marromeu

Boroma Voices of

the

Zambezi*

Chirodzi e

M'sanángué

Sucamiala Cathaço Baué Tambara Sabeta Macamba Chandimba

and In-

hampunga

Nhane Bauaze Jiwa

Institution

Nºm Nºr Nºm Nºr Nºm Nºr Nºm Nºr Nºm Nºr Nºm Nºr

-- 3 - 7

**

5 119

2

240

00

28

***

650 7 31

Nºm Nºr Nºm Nºr Nºm Nºr Nºm Nºr Nºm Nºr Nºm Nºr

100

00

- 3 140

00

3 3 900

0

480 6 - 16 1

Nºm Nºr

- 4

• INGC

• ARA-Zambezi

• HCB

• Administration

• INGC

• ARA-Zambezi

• Administration • Administration

• District Works Service

Publics and Planning

• INGC

• GPZ

• WWF

• Radeza (individual)

• Sena Company of Marromeu

Table 1: Illustrative table of the interviewed institutions of the Provinces of Tete, Manica, and Sofala and the number of respondents (Nº r)and members (Nº m) of the local communities.

* Community in the Mphanda Nkuwa area**(3 of which women)***(20 of which women)

Figure 20: In search of water, teacher of the Macamba Community,District of Tambara. Photograph by Anabela Lemos

VIII Appendices


Local Community Questionnaire

Community Name: 1. Name of respondent 2. Sex• Female • Male3. Birthplace 4. How many people live in your house? And in the community?5. How long have you lived in the village or community?6. Where did you live before you lived here?7. When did you move?8. Why did you move?6. Have you lived anywhere else other than that already mentioned? 7. What is the source of your income, of your family? • subsistence agriculture• proceeds from the sale of agricultural products8. What are the dimensions of the land to which you have access? 9. How many heads of cattle does your family keep/what do they haveaccess to?10. What do you do on a normal day, the day-to-day routine?11. How do your activities change throughout the year?12. What services or facilities are there (school, medical post)?13. Was the river always like this?14. How or in what ways has it changed?15. When did you feel this change?16. What do you think was the reason for the change?17. How frequently are there floods?18. What do you normally do when it floods?19. What was the cause of floods in the past?• rain• HCB discharges• other20. What type of floods?• small• large21. What have you lost due to flooding?22. Has the weather changed? How so? Does it rain more or less?23. With what frequency do you experience floods?24. What do you do now when it floods? 25. By what means, of which you have knowledge, do you know a floodis coming?• rain• HCB discharges• other26. What type of floods?• small• large27. Is there any local authority responsible for warning when there isdanger of flooding?28. How long before the flood arrives do you receive this warning?29. What means of communication is used to convey this warning?• radio• by HCB (how?)• government/administrators/secretaries (how?)30. Is anyone in the community responsible for monitoring the riverlevel?31. What is the relationship between HCB and the communities like?And with the ARA-Zambezi?32. Are you usually warned as to how high the flood is expected torise?33. In the case of forewarned floods, is there any particular locationwhere you are directed to go? 34. Is there a plan of action? And a plan B?38. Who is responsible for the coordination?39. Do you think the well being of your family is better nowadays or inthe past?37. What caused this change in the well being of your family?38. Is there any measure or suggestion that could be recommendedwhich may contribute to better management of the basin in order toavoid losses of property and life by invading the waters?

Institution Questionnaire

Name of Institution: 1. How is the communication/work relationship between the HCB /Government Institutions /Administrators / INGC/ Provincial Directorateof Agriculture and the communities that live downstream of the HCB?

2. And with the private sector?3. Who decides when to discharge? • HCB• ARA-Zambezi4. What are the most relevant factors in determining the need to dis-charge:• rain• Kariba discharges• insufficient water flow and level to allow for navigation downstream • energy production• level of reservoir is above the level of security5. When HCB decides to discharge, how is communication made withthe different users of the river? • communities• industry• agricultural projects• ARA Zambezi• INGC• Provincial Directorates of Agriculture6. How long before the discharges is this communication made withthe different users? (days, hours)• communities• industry• agricultural projects• ARA Zambezi• INGC• Provincial Directorates of Agriculture7. What means of communication are used?• radio• telephone or mobile• pamphlets• other8. Which bodies are involved and in what manner?• Basin Committee• Government Bodies (which)• HCB representatives• Members of responsible communities?• Neighbourhood Secretaries• Traditional leaders9. Is there any plan of action in the case of floods?10. Which bodies are involved in the drawing up and implementationof this plan?11. Is there an alternative plan?12. Do you think the hydrological forecasting model used to predictflooding in the Zambezi Basin is the most suitable? Can it predict suchsituations in time for this basin? • If not, do you know of another more appropriate model? Which? Whyis it not being used?13. What is the role of the INGC and ARA- Zambezi and what power doyou have in freedom of action and decision making during an emer-gency?14. What actions are immediately triggered before an emergency situ-ation?15. Do the large enterprises lend any support in flood situations?• What type of support?• examples16. Upon emergence of a new Mega-project or a change in one that re-lies on existing or causes any greater impact on the watershed or in itsmanagement, how is the integration of the existing ones? Can you givean example?17. How is communication between the HCB and Kariba?• good• bad• other18. Which other bodies/institutions are involved?19. What is their role?20. What could be better?21. Do you think there could be better collaboration/communicationbetween the two dams?22. What could be done to better the collaboration/communicationamong all users, to minimise the impacts of discharges?23. Do you think there is any other issue which should be includedhere?24. Is there any measure or suggestion that could be recommendedwhich may contribute to better management of the basin so as to avoidthe loss of goods and lives due to inundation?



Critical Periods

Daniel Ribeiro | Sílvia Dolores

JA _ Justiça Ambiental

produced by | to | financed by |

CAPA_ENG_Layout 1 22-09-2011 23:30 Page 1

Education

River Basin Management of Zambezi 2011