Rethinking our food systems: a practical perspective

Dr. Martin Kropff

CIMMYT Director General

SDGs: Food Security a Priority

Food and nutritional security

Climate change

Food and health

Governance

Biobased economies

The Challenge

Can we sustainably increase food production by 2050 to meet the demand of changing dietary habits and their growing populationswhile also developing economically and adapting to increasingly pressure from climate change and depleting natural resources?

Challenges 2050

AgriFood systems

Food security

Climate change

Diseases

Natural resources

Policy/legal

Diets

More Less

Better

Challenge 1: The 9 Billion Person Question

19602050

How Do We Feed this Growing Population?

FAOStat

Challenge 2: Fluctuating Food Prices

For food prices to remain constant, annual yield gains would have to increase:

● from 1.2% - 1.7% for maize

● from 1.1% - 1.7% for wheat

Diseases

Climate change

BreedingAgronomy

Projected demand by 2050 (FAO)

Wor

ld-w

ide

aver

age

yield

(to

ns h

a-1)

Linear extrapolations of current trends

Water, nutrient & energy scarcity

Potential effect of climate-change-induced heat stress on today’s cultivars (intermediate CO2 emission scenario)

Year

Direct Correlation Between Rising Prices and Social Unrest – Especially Wheat

Sour

ce: L

agi,

K.Z.

Ber

tran

d, Y.

Bar

-Yam

, The

Foo

d Cr

ises a

nd P

oliti

cal

Inst

abili

ty in

Nor

th A

fric

a an

d th

e M

iddl

e Ea

st. (

Augu

st 1

0, 2

011)

(death toll)

Social unrest and food prices interact

As a result people are spending more of their income on food

Challenge 3: Producing Crops on Borrowed Water

National Geographic Magazine 2013, Based on Geeson et. Al 2012

Footprint 54x Aquifer!!!

Challenge 4: Disease Epidemics

Maize Lethal Necrosis 2 viruses affect Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda, D.R. Congo, South Sudan, and Ethiopia

Stem Rust

Tar Spot Complex

Mexico, Colombia, El Salvador, Guatemala, Nicaragua

Fusarium Head Blight

Wheat blast

Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia, Paraguay, South Asia

Septoria

Most feared!Global

China, Caspian and Black Sea,Cona Sur, North America, Western Central and Eastern Europe

North Africa, Ethiopia, Latin America, Southern and Central Europe, Iran, Kazakhstan and Siberia

Wheat Blast – South Asia

A severe, surprise outbreak of blast in South Asia—home to more than 300 million undernourished people and whose inhabitants consume over 100 million tons of wheat each year.

Wheat blast disease, Brazil 2009

Challenge 5: Germplasm Exchange

Confusion around Standard Material Transfer Arangement and Nagoya Protocol: good intentions to share benefits but expected restrictions on germplasm exchange

We must join forces to maintain international, cross-border germplasm exchange

Open Access germplasm is as important as Open Access data

Challenge 6: Climate Change• Latest estimates are 30

M rural and 9 M urban people will have insufficient food in Southern Africa as a result of the El Nino-induced drought and heat stress.

• The number of people affected by El Nino keeps rising.Maize close to harvest.

Zimbabwe, February 2016.

Himalayan glaciers melting: impacts irrigation via Indus and

Brahmaputra

Sources: World Bank, 2013, Shah et.al, 2006, NATCOM, 2004

Sea-level rise/Storm surge: saltwater intrusion in coastal areas, (agriculture, groundwater and freshwater, drinking water ; diarrhea/cholera ); Floods will

increase in frequency and

intensity Erratic MonsoonsRain-fed agriculture, rivers, power supply,

Impact of Changing Climates on Maize Production in Africa

Sonder et al., 2015 forthcoming

Source: FAOSTAT, 2012

Challenge 7: Changing diets and increased demand for feed

Challenge 8: Different Challenges

Attainable yield

Actual yield

Reduce Yield Gap

Potential yield

Attainable yield

Actual Yield

Raise potential yield

Yield gaps in Southern Africa can differ between 50% to more than 100%!

Yield Variability

Top five maize producing countries

Yield variability in southern Africa

Challenge 9: Donor priorities

2008 food price crisis

Increased donor

attention

Budget increase:From 300 million to 1 billion

Before: Increased production 2015: Climate change and nutrition

2012-15Major W1&W2

budget cut

From Aid … to Trade

The scenario if this happens together

Ug99(windborn)

Price increase

s

x4

x5

Stock market losses

Food riots

Humanitarian crisis

Human cost

10% in EU5% in US

Wheat

Maize

Rice

Soybean

7%

10%

11%

Global production losses

7%

Impacts

WHAT ENSURES FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY?

Regional

National

Landscape

Cropping system

Crop level

The Need for Systems Approaches

• Many challenges (climate change, water scarcity, etc.) are the result of complex systemic interactions

– (i.e. Sheffer Critical Transitions, 2009)

• The factors behind technology adoption and success must be better understood

• Policymakers need guidance on their goals

• Breeding becomes a systems activity

Sustainable Productivity is not the Only Target

• Availability• Access• Suitability• Safety

• Profitability• Use• Nutrition

Stage at which cereal production is lost (FAO)

This requires cross-disciplinary approaches

1. Invest in agri-food R&D for innovation, more with less and global systems approaches

2. Transform smallholder agriculture and empower women in agriculture Fix the fundamentals: e.g. markets, infrastructure and trade

3. Strengthen partnerships for co-innovation, esp. with new players

4. Policies for the right incentives e.g. subsidies and insurances

Pathways for rethinking the global food system

Example: Crop insurance in India: Reaching the Unreached•Weather based scheme operational since 2007

•15 million farmers covered•67 crops covered•Subsidized; linked to credit•Yet dissatisfied stakeholders

• Farmers due to poor weather triggers for yield loss estimates

• Industry due to limited profits• Government due to subsidy load

• Most widely cultivated cereal grain

• 20% of all calories and protein

Wheat Helps Feed the World

• Preferred staple food to 900 million people living on less than $2 a day.

• Maize provides 15-56% of total calorie intake in sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America and Asia.

• 184 million hectares worldwide.

Maize Helps Feed the World

Seed banks – more than just museums

Storage

Germination Testing

CharacterizationRegeneration

Collecting Distribution

Seed Processing

Safety Duplication

DatabaseManagement

Maize Lethal Necrosis (MLN): a success story

• CIMMYT-KALRO team identified MLN in Kenya in 2011

• CIMMYT socioeconomics study estimates 23% of Kenya maize production lost to MLN in 2014

2014: resistant varieties

How Can CIMMYT Respond to El Niño?• Improved DT maize varieties with potential to

increase farmers’ yields by 20-50%• CA responds better to seasonal dry-spells leading to yield

benefits of 30-60% • Combined use of DT maize with CA can improve the

performance of maize by more than 80%• CA can improve incomes by 40-100% under drought

Key elements to build resistance against El Nino

1. Building capacity in Governments to increase their ability to respond to El Niño.

2. Provide a portfolio of “climate resilient” options to respond to climate variability and change

3. Improved scaling of technologies in partnership with development partners and new extension tools

Strategic Crop Management Buffers Crops Against Stress

CIMMYT HQ, Mexico, 2009(worst drought on record)

Irrigation: How to Get Uniform Stress Across the Entire Field

Amazing Technological Breakthrough: Better, Easier, Faster and Cheaper

Airborne Remote Sensing to Examine Plant Properties

Helium Blimp Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV)

• Fast, non-destructive screening over large areas.• Avoids temporal variation associated with ground based measurements.

• Higher spatial resolution compared with satellite imagery.

SkyWalker

SkyWalker allows (a) thermal and (b) multispectral images to be captured across a field block within minutes. (Images courtesy: Pablo J. Zarco-Tejada, CSICI)

SkyWalker, a customized UAV under testing in CIMMYT-Harare Station

Malnutrition / Hidden hunger

Care of children and womenQuality diets

Nutritionaleducation

Fortification

Suplementation

AGRICULTURE: BIOFORTIFICACION

Better or similar agronomic performace

Processing Advantage Disadvantage

Grinding (Decortificacion, degerminacion)

Increase protein digestability

Loss of fiber, micronutrientes

Lime-cooking (nixtamalization)

Increase of bioavailable Ca

Increase bioavailability of niacin

Decrease protein digestability Decrease bioavailability of lysine

Cooking and cooling Increase resistant starch

Germination Increase protein digestability

Fermentation Increase digestability of nutrients, hydrolisis of phytates, Vit B12 and C.

Effect of processing on nutritional value of maize

Consumer

Miller

Farmer

Producer

• High Grain Yield

• Disease resistance

• Drought and heat tolerance

WHEAT QUALITY

Quality matters: foods differ around the world

Tortillas

World Cereal Production–Areas Saved Through Improved Technology, 1950-2000

CEREAL PRODUCTION1950 650 million t 2000 1,900 million t

1,800

1,400

1,000

600

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

LAND SPARED1.1 billion ha

LAND USED 660 million ha

Milli

on h

ecta

res

200

Source: FAO Production Yearbooks and AGROSTATBorlaug, 2004

Diego Rivera Tlatelolco Market Mural

Food Security is an Escalating Concern

BUT, Policy Makers, Regulators and Scientists CAN Provide Solutions

Thank you!

Photo Credits (top left to bottom right): Julia Cumes/CIMMYT, Awais Yaqub/CIMMYT, CIMMYT archives, Marcelo Ortiz/CIMMYT, David Hansen/University of Minnesota, CIMMYT archives, CIMMYT archives (maize), Ranak Martin/CIMMYT, CIMMYT archives.