Lecture 3: Systems dynamics. Domenico Dentoni, University of Parma

Lecture 3: Systems Dynamics

University of Parma, November 2nd, 2016Course: Agri-Food Chain Management

Today’s lecture + tutorial plan

Recap/catch up! Lecture 3: Systems Dynamics

Why it is important How does it work How to gather information How to map the information Criteria of evaluation

Tutorial: Develop YOUR Systems Dynamics map!



Why it is important How does it work How to gather information How to map the information Criteria of evaluation

Tutorial: Develop YOUR Systems Dynamics map!

Two approaches to ag-food chain mgmt.

Focal company

or organizatio

n

Customers, customers of customers

Suppliers, suppliers of suppliers

Civil society organizations

Regulatory institutions

OBESITY

MAFIA & CORRUPTIO

N

LAND, WATER, ENERGY

SCARCITY

POVERTY

VIOLATION OF LABOR RIGHTS

POOR ACCESS TO

TECHNOLOGY

POOR ACCESS TO CREDIT

WASTE MANAGEMENT & POLLUTION

CRIME

2. Changing the broader system where ag-food chains are embedded

(Dentoni et al. 2012; Senge et al. 2015)

Our Motto: Everyone is a Changemaker

How can YOU engage in activities that make this CHANGE in or around food and

agricultural chains?

How will YOU make change in ag-food?

PART I: Understandi

ng problems

1. PICK A PROBLEM THAT

YOU WANT TO ADDRESS

2. VISION: IMAGINE YOUR

DESIRED FUTURE IN A PERIOD

BETWEEN 2020 and 2050

PART II: Social

innovation & entrepreneurs

hip

PART III: Building

partnerships

PART IV: Continuous learning &

change

I. Describe the nature of the

problem

Start from YOUR GROUP’s IDEAS AND INTERESTS

THROUGH YOUR GROUP PROJECT:

Lecture 2: Wicked Problems

Cases:

Three features of the problems:

Mafia in agriculture

Unsustainability and

commodity markets

Challenges in collective branding

Have actors conflicting values?Has the problem many causes?Does the problem change over time?

STEP 1: Pick YOUR problem(s)

You have brainstormed in small groups about

problem(s) that you want to address!

Let’s start from here…(e.g. corruption, distrust,

uninnovative culture)

from here…(e.g. collective

branding)

…or from here (e.g. IT

solutions to combine food, tourism and education)

STEP 2: Sketch YOUR VisionYou have imagined a vision for 2020 or

up to 2050

An example?https://

www.zingtrain.com/content/why-and-how-visioning-works

https://www.zingtrain.com/content/why-and-how-visioning-works







https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M6DiaJyX_z0

Activities and assessment

How will activities and deadlines will be distributed along the course?

See all the details on the course syllabus online here

September

October November

December

Course introduction (on September 19th);

Lectures 1 & 2;Tutorial, formation of groups and case

selection Individual study of assigned readings. Get acquainted with theory & methods

prior to the lectures and tutorials in

November!

Intensive month of activities: 10

hours/week withLectures (from 3 to

10);Tutorials, guest

lectures and supervised group

work;Close interaction with

instructor in preparation for deliverables in

December

Final deadlines & assessment:

Final presentations and role play

(December 1st); Group report

(December 6th);Individual short essay

(December 9th)

http://economia.unipr.it/docenti/prog.asp?id=359&id_corso=1585


How will activities will be distributed along your week (from November 2nd to December 9th)?

See all the details on the course syllabus online here

Monday Tuesday Wednesday

Thursday

Friday8h

14h

14-16h

18-20h

16-18h LECTURE

LECTURE

TUTORIAL

TUTORIAL

TUTORIAL



1. Group-based report. 40% of the grade. DEADLINE: December 6th

2. Group-based presentation. 20% of the grade. WHEN: December 1st

3. Role play. 10% of the grade. WHEN: December 1st

4. Individual, short essay. 30% of the grade. DEADLINE: December 9th

There will be no (oral or written) exam! See all the details on the course syllabus online here


Learning Objectives

From syllabus learning outcomes

By the end of the course, you will have:

Learning outcomes Learning methodsDeveloped understanding of major theories of change in agri-food

Lectures, readings

Practiced methods and approaches to explain change at multiple levels

Lectures, readings, tutorials

Developed competencies for participating to change processes in agri-food (creativity, systems thinking, negotiating, teamwork, forward-thinking, others!)

Tutorials, group-work, presentations, role

plays, guest lectures, Facebook group



Why it is important What it is, How does it work How to gather information How to map the information How to assess it

Tutorial: Develop YOUR Systemic Dynamics map!

WHY Systems Dynamics?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=17BP9n6g1F0


To think of the unintended consequences of YOUR actions

To understand the trade-offs and dilemmas among actors that make the problem persist

To map the multiple causes & effects of the problem and discuss the points that are most uncertain

Systems Dynamics helps

framing and mapping the three key

features of wicked

problems(Dentoni & Ross

2013):-Change over

time-Stakeholder

conflict- Knowledge uncertainty


“We can not solve our problems with the same level of thinking that created them” (Einstein

1946)

System dynamics (SD)

is the tool to understand the nature

of problems and to prepare for

Systemic change (Senge et al. 2015)

(in agri-food chains and in other socio-economic

sectors)

Systems Thinking (Senge et al. 2015)System dynamics (SD) is one of the key tools to develop System Thinking, a KEY COMPETENCE to practice in this course: Ability to see the larger system. Fostering reflection and more generative

discussions Shifting focus from problem-solving to co-

creating the future



Why it is important What it is, how does it work How to gather information How to map the information How to assess it


Systems Dynamics: definition & historySystem dynamics (SD) is an approach to understanding the nonlinear behavior of complex systems over time using stocks, flows, internal feedback loops and time delays (Forrester 1971)

Systems thinking (Senge et al. 2015)Causal loop diagrams (Kirkwood 2016)

Causal Loop Diagrams (Kirkwood 2016)System dynamics (SD) can be extremely complex (using stocks, flows, internal feedback loops and time delays .

Causal loop diagrams provide a simplified, handy version of SD. They still frame wicked problems and help developing your systems-thinking.

Causal Loop Diagrams (Kirkwood 2016)System dynamics (SD) principles simplified: Causal Loop: Closed sequence of causes and effects, that is, a closed path of action and information (Richardson and Pugh 1981).

Causal Loop Diagram: Drug Abuse

Drug abuse

Suppose that, as a group of social entrepreneurs, you want to reduce drug abuse and criminality in a neighborhood without increasing public expenditure (Dentoni 2016).Let’s start from a very basic mapping of the problem:

Public costs for rehab programs

Youth social

exclusion

Cultural activities in neigh-borhood

Police enforce-

ment

Criminality

Drug Availabilit

y

-

+

+

+

-

Minus (-) indicates that you agree that there is a negative relationship between cultural activities and youth social exclusion (i.e., the more cultural activities, the less youth social exclusion)

Plus (+) indicates that you agree that there is a positive relationship between criminality and drug availability (i.e., the more criminality, the more the drub availability)

+

Causal Loop Diagram: Feedback loops

Drug abuse


Youth social

exclusion


Police enforce-

ment

Criminality

Drug Availabilit

y

-

+

+

+

-

+

Public budget

available

-

Public funds for police

enforcement

Public funds for cultural activities

+

+

++

Causal Loop Diagram: from analysis to action

Drug abuse

Let’s now brainstorm on a simple systemic intervention that may effectively reduce drug abuse and criminality with no increase in public costs: what about a “time bank” and a neighborhood watch initiative?


Youth social

exclusion


Police enforce-

ment

Criminality

Drug Availabilit

y

Time bank in neighb-oorhood

Trust among

neighbors

Neighbor-hood watch

initiative

-

+

+

+

-

+

+

+

-

-+





How to gather information

1.Start from what you already know!• Not only “certain information/knowledge”,

but also your gut feelings and opinions.2.Consult in depth everyone within your group

• Everyone should really have put all their past know in it!

3.Consult other people closest to you• Anyone can give you good info: students in

other groups, your family/friends, housemates, your barista, etc…

4.Watch video of interviews, or organize them:• Who are good key informants?

Stakeholders involved?5.Consult literature (web + academic literature)



Why it is important What it is, how does it work How to gather information How to map the informationHow to assess it


How to map the problem

Drug abuse


Youth social

exclusion


Police enforce-

ment

Criminality

Drug Availabilit

y

-

+

+

+

-

+

You can start from the main problem:


Drug abuse


Youth social

exclusion


Police enforce-

ment

Criminality

Drug Availabilit

y

-

+

+

+

-

+

OR you can start from causes of the problem:


Drug abuse


Youth social

exclusion


Police enforce-

ment

Criminality

Drug Availabilit

y

-

+

+

+

-

+

OR you can start from effects of the problem:

Important: How to gather informationAs you work with your team on the map: Pay particular attention to the process of your

interaction You will have to practice:Individual competencies:

Active listening

Complex communication

Trust in yourself and others

Team competencies:

Dialectics and synthesis between different opinions, beliefs, disciplines and values





Criteria of evaluation for a great map

Tips for sketching an insightful map of YOUR PROBLEM:

1. Think broad: Draw many drivers and consequences of your problems. The more you draw drivers and effects of your problems, the easier it will be for you to find effective and creative interventions to these problems later on.

2. Develop feedback loops: How do the effects of your problem connect back with its causes… creating vicious circles and virtuous circles? So that you can lately think of how to break vicious circles and stimulate virtuous circles.

3. Seek the trade-offs and dilemmas: The problems often involve difficult choices. For example, more police enforcement reduces criminality but is also likely to increase public expenditure… to sketch a realistic and sharp map, seek and represent these dilemmas!

We will use these as criteria to assess your work and give you feedback in your group work!





Best of luck with building your map!

More information

SEE YOUR READINGS FOR LECTURE 3:http://

economia.unipr.it/docenti/text.asp?id=359&id_corso=1585

http://economia.unipr.it/docenti/text.asp?id=359&id_corso=1585



Education

Lecture 3: Systems dynamics. Domenico Dentoni, University of Parma