La Foresta Amazónica y el Cambio Climático

Philip M. Fearnside

Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia – INPA

http://philip.inpa.gov.brInstituto Humboldt, Bogotá, Colómbia 24 Agosto 2011

Nat Geogr. map

Fluxos de água na Amazônia

Descrição Volume de água(trilhões de m3/ano)(a)

Comparação com a vazão do rio Amazonas (%)(b)

Transporte do Oceano Atlântico para dentro da região pelos ventos alísios

10 ± 1 152%

Vazão média do rio Amazonas na foz

6,6 100%

Precipitação na bacia hidrográfica do rio Amazonas

15,05 228%

Evapotranspiração 8,43 128%

Vapor d’água transportado por ventos para outras regiões

3,4 ± 1 52%

(a) Valores da revisão de Salati (2001), exceto o último item.(b) Porcentagem em comparação com a vazão média na foz.

Fonte: http://ar.geocities.com/lapaginaderionegroyneuquen/temas/salltej.htm

Domínio: (76,2W – 47,6W; 13,2S – 5,5N)

- 184

-184

Correia, 2005

Unidade: 106 kg/s

202 mil toneladas de vapor de água por segundo em uma área de aproximadamente 6 milhões de quilômetros quadrados

Equivalem a aproximadamente 1 metro de água líquida no ano

Changes in vegetation biomassbetween the present day and the 2080s

–8 –5 –3 –1 1 3 5 8

kgC/m2

–8 –5 –3 –1 1 3 5 8

kgC/m2

[Hadley Centre, 2000]

Cândido et al., 2007

IPCC AR4 WG2 2007. Chapter 3

IPCC 2007 AR-4, WG-I, p. 779

Cox et al. 2004

Photo by R.I. Barbosa

Cox et al. 2004

Stainforth,2005

ADAPTED FROM HEGERL ET AL., NATURE (2006)

Betts et al. 2004 Theoretical and Applied Climatology

Huntingford et al. 2004 Theoretical and Applied Climatology

500

Kilometersi

Legend:

Number of dry months

Non TF areas

0 - 1

1 - 2

2 - 3

3 - 4

4 - 5

5 +

500

Kilometersi

Length of dry season

Derived from the New et al 2001 dataset

Legend:

Multivariate ENSO index

-0.4 - -0.3

-0.3 - -0.2

-0.2 - -0.1

-0.1 - 0

Non TF areas

0 - 0.2

550

Kilometersi 500

Kilometersi

Impact of El Nino

Malhi and Wright 2004 Spatial patterns and recent trends in the climate of tropical forest regions. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society

Seca de 2005

Photos Greenpeace

Published by AAAS

A. T. Evan et al., Science 324, 778 -781 (2009)

Fig. 4 Map of linear trends in observed SST (A) and the residual SST (B)

Published by AAAS

A. T. Evan et al., Science 324, 778 -781 (2009)

Fig. 2 Time series of mixed layer response to dust and stratospheric aerosol forcing (A) and observed SST anomalies (B)

This is especially critical because studies have estimated a reduction in Atlantic dust cover of 40 to 60% under a doubled carbon dioxide climate (33), which, on the basis of model runs with an equivalent reduction of the mean dust forcing, could result in an additional 0.3° to 0.4°C warming of the northern tropical Atlantic.

Evan et al. 2009, pp. 780-781

These calculations suggest that 69% of the recent upward trend in northern tropical Atlantic SST is due to changes in aerosols.

33=Mahowald, N. M., and C. Luo (2003), A less dusty future?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(17), 1903

Fig. 1 (A and B) Satellite-derived standardized anomalies for dry-season rainfall for the two most extensive droughts of the 21st century in Amazonia.

S L Lewis et al. Science 2011;331:554-554

Published by AAAS

10km

Fotos: Richard Bierregaard

Damage and mortality of trees (%/yr)

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

< 300 m > 300 m

< 0.0013.1

1.6

Taxa

de

dano

s (%

/ano

)

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

100 1000

Y = 3.64 - 0.75 log XR=0.51, P=0.0002

Morta

lity (

%/ye

ar)

Distance to edge (m)

Nascimento and Laurance, 2004 Ecol. Appl.;

Painéis Suportes

Calhas Drenos

Redução de 50-60% da precipitação

Experimentos de exclusão de chuvas – simulando el niños de longa duração – Projetos LBA/ESECAFLOR e LBA/SECA FLORESTA

Foley et al. 2007 Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment

IPCC, 2007 AR4 WG1 Ch. 10 p. 775

Cox et al. 2004 Theoretical and Applied Climatology

IPCC AR4 WG2 2007. SPM

IPCC, 2007 (AR-4 WG1 SPM)

Folha de S. Paulo 10/11/09, p. A-4.

http://philip.inpa.gov.br