Urban growth trends in the Upper Delaware Basin, 1984-2030

Dr. Claire A. JantzShippensburg UniversityGeography-Earth Science

cajant@ship.edu

Available at: http://webspace.ship.edu/cajant/research_upper_delaware.html

The SLEUTH model

• Developed by Keith Clarke (UCSB), sponsored by the USGS Urban Dynamics Program• Widely used, well-established

http://www.ncgia.ucsb.edu/projects/gig/

Input data sets

• Transportation• Slope• Urban time series

• 1984, 1995, 2005• Derived from Landsat satellite images

• Development likelihood (exclusion/attraction layer)• Identifies lands that are:

• Completely protected from development• Less likely to be developed• More likely to be developed

In NJ, buffers of 300 ft were applied to category 1 streams, 150 ft for trout maintenance streams, and 50 ft buffers on all other streams. Wetlands were buffered by 100 ft.In NY, streams and wetlands were buffered by 100 ft.In PA, streams and wetlands were buffered by 50 ft.

How much growth will there be in the future?

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Year

Are

a of

urb

an la

nd c

over

(km

2)

Observed

Linear

50% Increase

25% Increase

We developed three “reasonable” growth rate scenarios

And assumed different land use policies…

•Scenarios were developed collaboratively with stakeholder input (i.e. NPS, DRBC, county and municipal planning offices)•Baseline/business as usual•Smart growth• Focus growth into county-designated growth areas, around

transit stations, and strengthen protection on natural resources.

•Best for resource protection• Start with smart growth, but expand and strengthen

protection on natural resources.

• Limited planning/limited protection• Start with baseline, but weaken protection on natural

resources and encourage “sprawl” development.

Scenarios were translated into maps…

Thank you.Dr. Claire A. Jantz

Shippensburg UniversityGeography-Earth Science

cajant@ship.edu