KALA BAGH DAM Presentation by WAPDA .

PRESENTATION TO OFFICERS OF KHARIAN GARRISONPRESENTATION TO OFFICERS OF KHARIAN GARRISON

June 25, 2005June 25, 2005

WATER AND POWER DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY

WATER RESOURCES AND ISSUES

2

PAKISTAN’S NEED FOR LARGE DAMS

• WATER SCARCE COUNTRY AS PER GLOBAL

CRITERIA

• RAPIDLY INCREASING POPULATION

• DEPLETING ON-LINE STORAGES

• LARGE ESCAPAGES OF UNCONTROLLED FLOOD

FLOWS IN SEA

• EFFECTIVE RIVER REGULATION AND INTEGRATION

OF EXISTING IRRIGATION SYSTEM

3

WATER APPORTIONMENT ACCORD 1991

PARA-6

THE NEED FOR STORAGES, WHEREEVER

FEASIBLE ON THE INDUS AND OTHER

RIVERS WAS ADMITTED AND RECOGNIZED

BY THE PARTICIPANTS FOR PLANNED

FUTURE AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT

4

WATER DEMAND

• POPULATION 2005 141 million2025 220 million

• URBAN POPULATION Currently 35%2025 60%

• TOTAL AREA 196 M ACRES

CULTIVABLE 77 MA

CULTIVATED 54.5 MA

REMAINING 22.5 MA Needs Add. Water

• To increase the crop yield requires additional water.

• Net Crop Water Requirement 2003-4 77.4 MAF2010-11 89

MAF2024-25

114.64 MAF

• Domestic Demand Currently≈ 4.0 MAF2025 ≈ 10.5MAF

5

WATER AVAILABILITY Vs POPULATION GROWTH

5260

3888

2751

2129

15551282

1066915

858

34

46

65

84

115

139.5

195.5

167.72

208.4

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2002 2010 2020 2025

YEAR

PE

R C

AP

ITA

AV

AIL

AB

ILIT

Y (

M)

3

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

230

PER CAPITA AVAILIBILITY

POPULATION GROWTH

WA

TE

R A

VA

ILA

BIL

ITY

(M

AF

)

PO

PU

LA

TIO

N (

Mill

ion

)

1234 m3 2004

151.11 Million (2004)

6

ARABIAN SEA

Chenab Rive

r

DISPUTED

TERRITORY

INDUS

RIVERKABUL RIVER

Ravi Rive

r

Jhel

um R

iver

Sutlej River

LEGENDMOUNTAINS

DESERTS

AREA UNDERIRRIGATION

AREA THATCAN BE BROUGHTUNDER IRRIGATION

CATEGORY AREA (MA)

GEOGRAPHICAL AREA 196.0

AREA SUITABLE FOR AGRICULTURE 77.1

CULTIVATED AREA(IRRIGATED + BARANI)

54.5

AREA UNDER IRRIGATION(BY ALL SOURCES)

44.4

ADDITIONAL AREA THAT CAN BE BROUGHT UNDER IRRIGATED AGRICULTURE

22.5

SOURCE: AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS OF PAKISTAN 1998-99

LAND USE IN PAKISTAN

Indu

s R

iver

Sindh 3.6 MA

Punjab 4.3 MA

NWFP 3.0 MA

Baloch. 11.6 MA

TOTAL 22.5 MA

7

AVAILABILITY From Western Rivers at RIM Stations 141 MAF

Above Rim Stations 5 MAF

TOTAL 146 MAF

USES Above RIM Stations 5 MAF

Canal Diversion 106 MAF

TOTAL 111 MAF

BALANCE AVAILABLE 35 MAF

WATER AVAILABILITY IN PAKISTAN

8

ESCAPAGE BELOW KOTRIHYDROLOGICAL YEAR FROM APRIL TO MARCH

30.39 29.81

9.68

45.91

29.5526.90

17.53

52.86

17.22

42.34

53.29

81.49

29.11

91.83

62.76

45.40

0.77 1.93

20.18

69.08

33.79 35.15

2.37

8.83

20.79

80.59

20.10

10.98

0

20

40

60

80

100

1976

-77

1977

-78

1978

-79

1979

-80

1980

-81

1981

-82

1982

-83

1983

-84

1984

-85

1985

-86

1986

-87

1987

-88

1988

-89

1989

-90

1990

-91

1991

-92

1992

-93

1993

-94

1994

-95

1995

-96

1996

-97

1997

-98

1998

-99

1999

-200

0

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

YEARS

AN

NU

AL

DIS

CH

AR

GE

(M

AF

)

AVG. (34.7)

Source: WRMD WAPDA

Source: WRMD WAPDA based on data supplied by Govt. of SindhApril 2005 1.6 MAFMay 2005 0.74 MAF

2.34 MAF

9

RESERVOIR

GROSS STORAGE CAPACITY

(MAF)GROSS STORAGE LOSS

ORIGINAL YEAR 2004YEAR 2004

(MAF)

YEAR 2010

(MAF)

YEAR 2025

(MAF)

TARBELA11.62 (1974)

8.36 (72%) 3.26 (28%) 3.95 (34%) 5.51 (47%)

MANGLA 5.88 (1967) 4.64 (78%) 1.24 (22%) 1.60 (27%) 1.97 (34%)

CHASHMA 0.87 (1971) 0.48 (55%) 0.39 (45%) 0.58 (55%) 0.50 (57%)

TOTAL 18.37 13.48 (73%) 4.89 (27%) 6.03 (33%) 7.98 (43%)

RESERVOIR SEDIMENTATION (MAF)

10

KALABAGH DAM PROJECT NUMBER OF DAMS UNDER CONSTRUCTION

IN SOME COUNTRIES

CountryTotal No. of Dams

Above 50 Ft. Above 200 Ft.

CHINA 253 59

TURKEY 113 22

INDIA 28 6

IRAN 52 28

JAPAN 97 35

PAKISTAN 4 1 (Gomal Dam)

Source: ICOLD register of Dams

11

WARSAK DAMWARSAK DAM

NowsherNowsheraa

LahoreLahore

A F G

H A

N I

S T A

N

A F G

H A

N I

S T A

N

RiviRivi

CHASHMA

BARRAGE

MANGLA DAM

JAMMU AND KASHMIR

(DISPUTED TERRITORY)

Sringar

Jammu

ISLAMABAD

Skardu

GilgitChitral

AttockPeshawar

Rawalpindi

Kalabagh

Dera Ismail Khan

Gujranwala

Faisalabad I N D

I A

I N D

I A

Jheium

River

River

Chenab

River

Soan River

Indus River

Indu

s R

iver

LOCATION MAP DAMS

TARBELA DAM

BASHA DAM

BASHA DAM

KALABAGH DAM

KALABAGH DAMTARBELA DAM

TARBELA DAM

12

13

KALABAGH DAM PROJECT LAYOUT

14

KALABAGH DAM PROJECTSALIENT FEATURES

• Dam Type Earth Core Rock Fill

• Gross Storage 7.9 MAF

• Live Storage 6.1 MAF

• Dam Height 260 ft.

• Power 3600 MW

• Cost $ 6.0 Billion

• No Canal Outlets from Dam

• It Will Function As Seasonal Carry Over Dam

15

KALABAGH DAM PROJECT(Current Status)

• Feasibility Report 1984

• PC-I submitted (1989) Approval pending

• Project Planning Studies Completed

• Completion Time 6 Years

16

KALABAGH DAM PROJECT ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT

PROVINCE

POPULATION * TO BE

RESETTLED

LAND AFFECTED (ACRES)

BARANI IRRIGATED TOTAL

PUNJAB 78,000 21,600 2,900 24,500

N.W.F.P 42,000 2,900 100 3,000

TOTAL 120,000 24,500 3,000 27,500

* December 1999 (Being updated)

KALABAGH DAM PROJECTCOST ESTIMATES (US $ Million)

SrNo

Description July 1987 PricesEscalated to

Dec. 2004 Prices

1 Diversions & Embankment/Dam 554.1 850

2 Spillways & Outlet Works 476.9 750

3 Power Features 684.7 750

4 Transmission/Collector Station 111.7 125

5 Resettlement 225.7 700

6 Preliminary Works 289.7 250

Sub Total 2342.8 3,420

7 Contingencies @ 10% 234.3 342

Sub Total 2577.1 3,762

8 Engg. & Admin.@ 10% 257.7 376.2

Total 2834.8 4,138.2

9 Financial Costs @ 40% 1133.9 1653.3

10 Excise & Custom Duties @ 5% 141.7 206.9

GRAND TOTAL 4110.4 5998.4

Say 6.0 Billion

APPREHENSIONS OF KPK

19

KALABAGH DAM PROJECT APPREHENSIONS OF NWFP

APPREHENSIONS FACTUAL POSITION POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING OF

NOWSHERA TOWN AND PESHAWAR VALLEY IN CASE OF UNPRECEDENTED FLOOD

MODERN FLOOD WARNING SYSTEM WOULD PROVIDE ADEQUATE WARNINGAGAINST FLOODS

TARBELA IS ALSO ON LINE NOW

DRAINAGE OF MARDAN, PABBI AND SWABI WILL BE ADVERSELY AFFECTED

CONSERVATION LEVEL OF KALABAGH DAM IS 915 FT WHICH IS LOWER THAN THE LOWEST GROUND LEVEL OF MARDAN, PABBI AND SWABI SCARP AREAS

FERTILE CULTIVATED LAND WOULD BE SUBMERGED

2,900 ACRES OF BARANI LAND AND ONLY 100 ACRES OF IRRIGATED LAND WOULD BE SUBMERGED IN THE

RESERVOIR

LARGE POPULATION WOULD BE DISPLACED

RESETTLEMENT PLAN WOULD ENSURE PROPER COMPENSATION TO THE AFFECTEES

PUNJAB NWFPTOTAL

NO. OF AFFECTEES 78,000 42,000120,000

LAND AFFECTED (Acres) 24,500 3,000 27,500

20

KALABAGH DAM PROJECT 3 – D VIEW OF NOWSHERA VALLEY

21

KALABAGH DAM PROJECT L-SECTION OF KABUL RIVER

MAX. CONS. LEVEL: 915

22

DRAINAGE LEVELS IN KABUL VALLEY WITH KALABAGH

910

930

950

970

990

1010

150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80

SWABICHARSADDA

PABBI

NOWSHERA

MARDAN

RESERVOIR RETENATION EL. 915

DISTANCE U/S DAM SITE IN MILES

LE

VE

L I

N F

EE

T

955 960

940

970

1000

23

KALABAGH DAM PROJECT MODIFICATIONS

MODIFICATION IMPACT

Maximum Conservation Level • Effective Drainage Outlet of:

Original 925 Ft. Charsada 955 Ft.

Reduced 915 Ft. Pabbi 960 Ft.

Nowshera 940 Ft.

Mardan 970 Ft.

Swabi 1000 Ft.

• Reduction in Storage Capacity from 7 MAF to 6.1 MAF

No Canal outlets from Dam It will function as seasonal Carry over Dam

24

KALABAGH DAM PROJECT KABUL RIVER SECTION KM-4

(7420 FT DOWNSTREAM OF PIR SABAK)

25


(9270 FT DOWNSTREAM OF PIR SABAK)

26


(4270 FT UPSTREAM OF ZARA MIANA)

27


(6230 FT DOWNSTREAM OF ZARA MIANA)

28


(7860 FT UPSTREAM OF MIAN ISA)

29

KALABAGH DAM PROJECTKABUL RIVER SECTION KM-9

(1640 FT DOWNSTREAM OF MIAN ISA)

APPREHENSIONS OF SINDH

31

KALABAGH DAM PROJECT APPREHENSIONS OF SINDH

APPREHENSIONS FACTUAL POSITION

NO WATER IS AVAILABLE FOR

FILLING KALABAGH RESERVOIR

AVERAGE ANNUAL OUTFLOW BELOW

KOTRI IS 34.7 MAF MOST CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATE SHOWS

15 MAF FOR STORAGE / DEVELOPMENT ABOUT 6 MAF IS JUST REPLACEMENT

FOR TARBELA, MANGLA AND CHASHMA

DUE TO SEDIMENTATION

SINDH WOULD BE CONVERTED INTO

A DESERT

AFTER MANGLA & TARBELA DAMS,

SINDH CANAL WITHDRAWALS

INCREASED FROM 37.20 MAF TO 44.47

MAF CANAL WITHDRAWALS FOR SINDH

WOULD FURTHER INCREASE BY 2 MAF

AFTER KALABAGH

32



RIVERINE AREA WOULD GO OUT OF

PRODUCTION DUE TO CONTROL OVER

RIVER

FLOOD PEAKS IN EXCESS OF 300,000

CUSECS WOULD STILL BE COMING

ASSURED WATER SUPPLY THROUGH

PROPOSED TUBEWELLS WILL BE MADE

ROUND THE YEAR

INDUS DELTA MANGROVE FOREST

WOULD VANISH

ONLY 7,000 ACRES OUT OF 294,000

ACRES MANGROVE FOREST ARE IN

INDUS ACTIVE DELTA ESTABLISHED

THROUGH SATELLITE IMAGERY

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED

AS REQUIRED MINIMUM WATER (AS PER

LATEST STUDIES) WILL STILL BE

FLOWING BELOW KOTRI

33



FISH PRODUCTION BELOW KOTRI

WOULD BE AFFECTED

No EVIDENCE ESTABLISHES THIS

APPREHENSION AS FISH PRODUCTION

INCREASED MARINE FISH (THOUSAND TONS)

- 1995 283 - 1999 351

- 1996 270 - 2000 308

- 1997 292 - 2001 315

- 1998 303

STUDY REQUIRED TO DETERMINE

ESCAPAGE DOWNSTREAM KOTRI

TWO STUDIES: (I) TO DETERMINE THE

MINIMUM ESCAPAGES REQUIRED BELOW

KOTRI TO CHECK SEA INTRUSION (II) TO ADDRESS ENVIRONMENTAL

CONCERNS BELOW KOTRI ARE

UNDERWAY THE THIRD STUDY ON ENVIRONMENTAL

CONCERNS OF ALL THE FOUR

PROVINCES IS ALSO TAKEN UP

34


• Royalty from Kalabagh would go to

Punjab although the Project would be

Federally Funded

• It is a Constitutional Matter.

• Desilt Tarbela Instead of Building

Kalabagh Dam

• Desilting Tarbela Reservoir not a

practical option

• Save 40-50 MAF lost in seepage through

Canal System Lining

• Lining is Complementary to Storage

• Lining is expensive and time taking. It

is not completely effective.

• Seepage from Canals in fresh ground

water areas is not a loss as it is being

pumped out.

• It would not be a carry over storage

and no additional water. It would

improve availability at tails.


35

KALABAGH DAM PROJECTANNUAL BENEFITS

1.Irrigation Water Supplies

@ Rs. 2054/AF6.1 x 2054 = Rs. 12.53 Billion

2Power Benefits @ Rs. 4.00/Unit

11.736 x 4 = Rs. 46.944 Billion

3 Flood Control 1.50 Billion

Total Rs. 60.97 Billion

36

THE INDUS DELTAMANGROVES AND LANDFORMS

37

KALABAGH DAM PROJECT SEASON-WISE AND ANNUAL CANAL HEAD

WITHDRAWALS OF SINDH (1962-63 TO 1999-2000)

SEASON

PRE-MANGLA (1962-67)

AVERAGE

PRE-TARBELA (1967-76)

AVERAGE

POST-TARBELA

(1976-2000)AVERAGE

ADDITIONAL WATER FOR

SINDH AFTER MANGLA AND

TARBELA

KHARIF 26.16 28.66 29.45 3.29 12.6%

RABI 11.04 12.19 15.02 3.98 36.1%

TOTAL 37.20 40.85 44.47 7.27 19.5%

38

KALABAGH DAM PROJECTHOW SOON CONSTRUCTION CAN START ?

• All designs & Tender Documents ready –

Need Updating

• Revised Environmental/Resettlement Studies

Underway.

• Preliminary Works i.e. Access Roads,

Colonies etc. can start right away.

• Actual Construction can start in early 2006.

OTHER PLANNED PROJECTS

• BASHA DAM

• AKHORI DAM

• SKARDU/KATZARAH DAM

40

BASHA DIAMER DAM PROJECTLAYOUT PLAN/CONFIGURATION

41

BASHA DIAMER DAM PROJECTSALIENT FEATURES

• Concrete Gravity Dam (Roller Compacted) Endorsed by Panel of Experts

• Gross Storage 9.04 MAF

• Live Storage 7.34 MAF

• Dam Height 281 Meters (922 ft)

• Power 4500 MW

• Cost (Approx.) $ 6.721 Billion

• Construction Period 7 Years

42

BASHA DIAMER DAM PROJECT(CURRENT STATUS)

• Feasibility Report Submitted Aug 2004

• Detailed Design Dec. 2007

• Prepare Tenders, Advertise Jun 2007 to Mar 2008 Evaluate & Award

• Up-gradation of KKH June 2008

• Commencement of Construction 2008

• Completion 2015

43

UPGRADATION / RELOCATION OF KKH FORBHASHA DIAMER DAM PROJECT

Hasanabdal

Length of Section

40 k

m

281

km

94 km

44

KKH UPGRADATION & RELOCATION

325 KM KKH TO UPGRADED RS 9423 M.

140 KM KKH TO BE REPLACED

RS 14333 M.

7 CONTRACT PACKAGES FOR

UPGRADATION WOULD REQUIRE AT

LEAST THREE YEARS ..

45

S. No

CALENDER YEAR (JAN-DEC) 20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

1 Feasibility Study Stage-I

2 Pre-qualification, Evaluation & Award of Contract for Stage-II

3 Preparation of Tender Documents and Detail Engineering

4 Additional Investigation Studies and Model Testing

5 Pre-construction ActivitiesLand Acquisition, Up-gradation of KKH

6 Tendering Process Up to Award

7 Mobilization of Contractor

8 Construction Activities

9 Rehabilitation/ Resettlement including Relocation of KKH

BASHA DIAMER DAM PROJECTBASHA DIAMER DAM PROJECT OVERALL IMPLEMENTATION SCHEDULEOVERALL IMPLEMENTATION SCHEDULE

46

AKHORI DAM PROJECT

47

AKHORI DAM PROJECTSALIENT FEATURES*

RESERVOIRGROSS STORAGE 7 MAFLIVE STORAGE 6 MAFPOND AREA 56,500 ACRES

MAIN DAMCREST LEVEL 1470 FTMAXIMUM HEIGHT 420 FTLENGTH 17,000 FT

CONVEYANCE SYSTEMCHANNEL CAPACITY 60,000 CUSECSLENGTH 20 MILES

POWER POTENTIAL 600 MW(2100 GWh Per Year)

ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTLAND SUMBERGED 59,217 ACRESPOPULATION 49,320

ESTIMATED COST (Updated) US $ 3.31 BILLION

* As per Appraisal Study Report 2002

48

AKHORI DAM PROJECTIMPLEMENTATION SCHEDULE

AWARD OF CONSULTANCY FOR FEASIBILITY STUDY TO M/S TECHNO CONSULTANTS & HPE JOINT VENTURE - AUGUST 2003

Duration

(Years) 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007KEY ACTIVITIES

2008 2009 2015

D.

FEASIBILITY STUDIES AND PC-I

DETAILED ENGG. DESIGN & TENDER DOCUMENTS

TENDERING, EVALUATION & AWARD

0.75

2

2011

2

2012

E. MOBILIZATION BY CONTRACTORS 0.5

F. CONSTRUCTION 6

C. ADDITIONAL EXPLORATIONS, STUDIES & MODEL TESTING

2

2014

A.

B.

20132010

49

SKARDU DAM

Skardu

Shigar

Airport

SKARDU/KATZARAH DAM PROJECT

SKARDU DAM SITE

50

Airport

Right Bank

KILOMETER

ME

TE

R

(Through Air-Port)X-SECTION A-A

RESERVOIR AREASKARDU DAM PROJECT

Width = 47 mLength = 3658 mElevation = 2232 m

Left BankRoad

River Surface

2258 Meters (Capacity=8.0 MAF)



Normal Res. Level

51

PROJECTWater

Availability (MAF) /Year

Live Storage (MAF )

Power Potential

(MW)Logistic Problem

Power Dispersal

KALABAGH 90 6.10 3600 LEAST NEAREST

BASHA50 7.34 4500 MORE

VERY DIFFICULT

AKHORI 14 6.00 600 LESS NEAREST

SKARDU/ KATZARA

27 5.2 PF - MAX.MOST

DIFFICULT

COMPARISON OF PROPOSED DAMS 1 of 3

52

PROJECTConstruct-ability

Start of construction

Water availability for irrigation

Seismicity

KALABAGHECRD EASY

IMMEDIATELYDESIGN &

TENDER DOC. READY

EARLY LESS

BASHA RCC DIFFICULT

2008 LATE MORE

AKHORIECRD EASY

2010 EARLY LESS

SKARDU/ KATZARA

NOT DECIDED

YET

2015 (UNCERTAIN)

VERY LATE MORE


53

Projects

ENVIRONMENTALProject

Cost$ Billion

Persons Displaced Approx.

Roads AffectedLand

Submergence (Acres)

KALABAGH 120,000 Minor 110,200 6.0

BASHA24,000

KKH – Submerges 110 Km

Upgradation 320 Km32,000 6.721

AKHORI 49,300 97 Km 59,200 3.31

SKARDU/ KATZARA

100,000Submergence 40 Km Upgradation 680 Km

55,000P.F. Sept

2005


54

HYDROPOWER DEVELOPMENT

• AT 8% GROWTH RATE POWER

SHORTAGE LIKELY FROM 2006

• IN PAST 20 YEARS HYDROPOWER

SHARE REDUCED FROM 60% TO 34%

• THERMAL POWER GENERATION BEING

SEVERAL TIMES AS EXPENSIVE, THE

ELECTRICITY TARIFF HAS GONE UP

• HYDROPOWER POTENTIAL IS ABOUT

40,000 MW

55

INSTALLED GENERATION CAPACITY

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

Pre

-WA

PD

A19

6019

6119

6219

6319

6419

6519

6619

6719

6819

6919

7019

7119

7219

7319

7419

7519

7619

7719

7819

7919

8019

8119

8219

8319

8419

8519

8619

8719

8819

8919

9019

9119

9219

9319

9419

9519

9619

9719

9819

9920

0020

0120

0220

0320

04

Fiscal Year

Meg

aWat

ts

WAPDA Hydel WAPDA Thermal IPPs Total

119 MW

17312 MW

6459 MW(37.33%) 4779 MW(27.61%) 6070 MW(35.06%) 17312 MW

56

EXISTING HYDROPOWER PROJECTS

ProjectCapacity

(MW)River

Capability (MW)

Summer Winter

Warsak 240 Kabul 195 145

Mangla 1000 Jhelum 1020 120

Tarbela 3478 Indus 3691 560

Ghazi Brotha 1450 Indus 1450 580

Chashma 184 Indus 184 65

Small Hydropower 108 68 30

Total 6463 6608 1500

57

PROPOSED HYDROPOWER PROJECT MAIN (INDUS RIVER)

Kalabagh

Feasibility, Design Ready

3600 (MW)

Basha

Feasibility Ready

4500 (MW)

Skardu

Pre-Feasibility Under Study

-

58

RANKING OF HYDRO POWR SCHEME ADDED AFTER BASHA

RANK PROJECT RIVER POWER

(MW)1 DASU INDUS 3700

2 BUNJI INDUS 5400

3 THAKOT INDUS 1043

4 PATAN INDUS 1172

5 RAKHIOT INDUS 670

6 YULBO INDUS 710

7 KALANGAI SWAT 256

8 KOHALA JHELUM 740

9 MUNDA SWAT 740

10 KAROT JHELUM 240

Education

KALA BAGH DAM Presentation by WAPDA .