Jstcrds issip workshop 20161107 v3

05/01/2023 Understanding Cognitive Systems 1

Cognition-as-a-Service (CaaS):

A Service Science Perspective

Jim Spohrer (IBM)Tokyo, Japan; November 7, 2016

JST-CRDS and ISSIP Workshophttp://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/JSTCRDS-ISSIP-Workshop-20161107-v3

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Today’s Talk• Tech Topics • Perspectives• Opportunities• Challenges

© IBM UPWard 2016

05/01/2023 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development

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Physics Chemistry Biology

Neuroscience Psychology ArtificialIntelligence

Engineering Management PublicPolicy

Education Design Humanities

Natural Systems

Cognitive Systems

Service Systems


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Brief History of AI

• 1956 – Dartmouth Conference• 1956 – 1981 Micro-Worlds• 1981 – Japanese 5th Generation• 1988 – Expert Systems Peak• 1990 – AI Winter• 1997 – Deep Blue• 1997 – 2011 Real-World• 2011 – Jeopardy! & SIRI• 2013 – Cognitive Systems Institute• 2014 – Watson Business Unit &• True North Brain Chip• 2015 – “Cognition as a Service”

on IBM Bluemix


Intelligence Building Blocks

• Augmented• Science (Brains)• Design (People)• Business (Value)• Societal (Impact)• Interdisciplinary

• Artificial• Learning• Perception• Reasoning• Interaction• Knowledge

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1955 1975 1995 2015 2035 2055

Can better cognition-as-a-service help us be wiser?

Cognitive Mediator (2035): Tool, Assistant, Collaborator, Coach, Mediator

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How fast is Artificial Intelligence approaching?

What might it look like?

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Computing: Then, Now, Projected

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2035

2055


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Courses• 2015

• “How to build a cognitive system for Q&A task.”• 9 months to 40% question answering accuracy• 1-2 years for 90% accuracy, which questions to reject

• 2025• “How to use a cognitive system to be a better professional X.”• Tools to build a student level Q&A from textbook in 1 week

• 2035• “How to use your cognitive mediator to build a startup.”• Tools to build faculty level Q&A for textbook in one day• Cognitive mediator knows a person better than they know themselves

• 2055• “How to manage your workforce of digital workers.”• Most people have 100 digital workers.


Reality 2.0 Service Platform: Smart to Wise?

Service Platform

CM2

P2

CM1

P1

100x

100x 100x

“The best way to predict the future is to inspire the next generation of students to build it better”

Digital Natives Transportation Water Manufacturing

Energy Construction ICT Retail

Finance Healthcare Education Government


Progression: Types and Models

Models (columns)Types (rows)

Task & World Model/Planning & Decisions

Self Model/Capacity & Limits

User Model/Episodic Memory

Institutions Model/Trust & Social Acts

Tool + - - -

Assistant ++ + - -

Collaborator +++ ++ + -

Coach ++++ +++ ++ +

Mediator +++++ ++++ +++ ++

tool

assistant

collaborator

coach

mediator


Build: 10 million minutes of experience




Value Migration: Hardware < Software < Data < Experience < Transformation


Thomas Friedman• “We are now standing at

an ethical intersection we have never stood at before as a species,” Friedman explained as he started to wind down his talk. “At the end of World War II, one country could kill all of us. Now, one person can kill all of us.”


Moshe Vardi (Rice)


Alexander Braun (CC)


Alexander Braun (CC)


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In Summary

“A service scienceperspective considersthe evolving ecology of service system entities, their value co-creation andcapability co-elevationinteractions, and their capabilities, constraints,rights, and responsibilities.”

Cognitive SystemsEntities

Service SystemsEntities With

CognitiveMediators

Add Rights &Responsibilities

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Come visit IBM Research – Almaden in San Jose, CA USA – monthly

university day!


Definitions: Types of Cognitive System Entities(symbol and pattern processing systems)• Socio-Technical (Organization-based)

• Businesses• Cities• Nations

• Biological (Brain-based)• People• Animals

• Technological (Computation-based)• Embodied (Robot, Car, Device)• Virtual (Local, Cloud)

MachineLearning

NaturalLanguageProcessing

HighPerformanceComputing

KnowledgeRepresentationand Reasoning

QuestionAnswering

UnstructuredInformation



Design (Books)


Business Value


SocietalImplications

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Interdisciplinary• Disciplines: Breadth of disciplines to

tackle issues:• Psychology and cognitive science,

philosophy, design and art, public policy and management, law and regulations

• Systems: Professional associations to tackle industry and system issues, including novice to expert progression on tasks• Socio-technical system design loop

and smart service systems


IBM Cognitive Build: Experiment• Tool• Assistant• Collaborator• Coach• Mediator


Next generation cognitive curriculum


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I have…

Have you noticed how the building blocks just keep getting better?


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Learning to program:My first program

Early Computer Science Class:Watson Center at Columbia 1945

Jim Spohrer’s First Program 1972

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IBM Cloud Bluemix: Watson APIs are growing…

© IBM UPWard 2016

So far (June 2016), 100,000 faculty and students globally given access

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What exists in 2016?

360,000 100,000 120,000 60,000 150,000

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Books


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Dedication: Douglas C. EngelbartFather of the mouse and augmentation theory

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But this stuff is still really hard…

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Policies


Understand them…

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What might Reality 2.0 look like?