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Climate and Transportation: Pulling Out the Stops
Deron LovaasFederal Transportation Policy DirectorNatural Resources Defense Council
ITS AmericaHouston, TexasMay 4, 2010
Slide
Moving America Beyond Oil
“ We have a serious problem. America is
addicted to oil.”
President George W. Bush, 2006 State of the Union
Slide 3
2008 EPA Emissions Inventory
Economy-wideTransportation = 27%*
TransportationPassenger Vehicles = 58%
* End use only. If production and refining of petroleum is included, then transportation share would increase to roughly 1/3rd.
Source: 2010 EPA GHG Emission Inventory
Slide 4
Travel Activity and Oil Imports
197019711972197319741975197619771978197919801981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Vehicle Miles Traveled Oil Imports Transit Boardings
Year
Veh
icle
Mil
es T
rave
led
(m
illi
on
s)
and
Oil
Im
po
rts
(th
ou
san
d b
arre
ls)
Tra
nsi
t B
oar
din
gs
(in
mil
lio
ns)
Slide 5
Fuel Economy: Jump, then Stall
Slide
Vehicle and Fuel Improvements:Cornerstone, but Not the Building
6
325 MMT
570 MMT
750 MMT
Assumes fixed efficiency baseline.
LDV CO2 and CAFE Stds plus RFS2
Reduction Targets(from 2005 baseline)
2020 = 17%2030 = 38%2050 = 80%
Source: NRDC analysis
U.S. Transportation Sector Emissions
Slide 7
Vehicle Efficiency Options
LDV and HDV Strategy Per Vehicle GHG Reduction Potential
Advanced Conventional Gasoline 8-30%
Diesel 16%
Hybrid-Electric 26-54%
Plug-in Hybrid Electric 46-75%
Retrofits of HDVs 10-15%
Powertrain and Resistance Reduction for New HDVs 10-30%
Transit Bus Hybridization 10-50%Source: DOT Report to Congress, April 2010
Slide 8
Low-Carbon Fuel Strategies
StrategyGHG Reduction Effectiveness Net Included Cost per Tonne Cobenefits
Ethanol n/a n/a n/a
Biodiesel n/a n/a n/a
CNG 0.3-0.6% Net savings Positive
LPG <0.1% Not calculated Positive
Synthetics Uncertain/varies Uncertain/varies Positive
Alternative Aviation Fuels Uncertain/varies Uncertain/varies Positive
Hydrogen FC2.3-3.2% (2030);
18-22% (2050) Net savingsPositive and
Negative
BEV2.2-2.5% (2030);
26-30% (2050) Net savingsPositive and
Negative
Source: DOT Report to Congress, April 2010
Slide 9
System Efficiency + Reducing Carbon-Intensive Activities
• Combined 2.9-6.1% Reduction Potential from:– Highway and Truck Operations and Management– Freight Rail and Marine Operations– Air Traffic Operations– Infrastructure Construction and Maintenance
• Combined 4.9-17% (2030) and 6.4-21% (2050) Reduction Potential from:– Pricing– Transit, Nonmotorized and Intermodal Travel– Land Use and Parking– Commute Travel Reduction– Public Information Campaigns
Source: DOT Report to Congress, April 2010
Slide 10
Sea Change for CAFE, What Next?
• And now, AAM says: “The national [fuel economy and GHG] program announced today makes sense for consumers, for government policymakers and for automakers.”
Year Vote Senate Bill
1990 42-57Break Filibuster against bill to
boost CAFE by 40% by 2000
199137
SponsorsBill to boost CAFE by 2001
1994-2000
CAFEFreeze
Provision added by Congress in FY06 budget
1999 40-55Non-binding resolution to unfreeze
CAFE
2002 44-56Amendment to freeze CAFE for
pick-up trucks
2003 32-65Amendment to increase CAFE to
40 mpg by 2015
2005 28-67Amendment to increase CAFE to
40 mpg by 2015
Slide 11Source: CBO, 2007
Slide 12
VMT Growth: Already Trending Downward
Source: Pisarski and Cambridge Systematics
Slide
“The Market Wants this Stuff”
Is there adequate supply of alternative development in existing housing and new construction?
0.00%
20.00%
40.00%
60.00%
80.00%
100.00%
Nor
thea
st
Gre
atP
lain
s an
d
Mid
wes
t
Sou
th-
Cen
tral
Answering "Not enough"
Source: Jonathan Levine, Zoned Out: Regulations, Markets and Choices in Transportation and Metropolitan Land-Use, 2006.
Slide 14
Thank You!
202-289-2384
For more information regarding NRDC’s Energy Program
http://www.nrdc.org/energy/
