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Alberta’s new climate policy and opportunities/challenges for harmonization
Stephanie CairnsJune 22, 2016North American Climate Policy Forum
Credit: Amber Bracken/ The Canadian Press
Premier Notley Launches Alberta Climate Plan with leaders from industry, environmental, and health sectors. November 2015
2007 Specified Gas Emitters Regulation for Large Final EmittersOutput based intensity standard12% reduction in GHG intensity compared to historic baseline
Compliance options: $15/t payment into an Alberta technology fund/ Alberta offsets/ Alberta credits
15% 201620% 2017
$20/t 2016$30/t 2017
Make climate change
enough that even Trump would act
‐
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Emission
s (Mt C
O2e)
Alberta Historic and Forecast Emissions
Historic
2014 Trends
Draft 2015 Trends
2014 Emissions Trends uses 2013 NEB reference production forecast
2015 Emissions Trends uses draft 2015 NEB reference production forecast
Oilsands 2030
•A “carbon competitive” energy industry in a global context
•Cleaner and less carbon intensive electricity generation
•More efficient use of energy across the economy, in buildings, homes and transportation
Alberta Climate Leadership Plan:Three main thrusts
Incentives can steer the market
Oil Sands 22%
Other Oil and Gas 23%
Electricity 17%
Other Industry, Manufacturing, & Construction
9%
Agriculture, Forestry, & Waste 9%
Transportation11%
Buildings and Houses9%
Alberta 2013 emissions: 267 MT (37% National Emissions)
Economy‐wide coverageCarbon levy extended to transportation and fuels$20/t 2016$30/t 2017
Incentives can steer the market
Oil Sands 22%
Other Oil and Gas 23%
Electricity 17%
Other Industry, Manufacturing, & Construction
9%
Agriculture, Forestry, & Waste 9%
Transportation11%
Buildings and Houses9%
Alberta 2013 emissions: 267 MT (37% National Emissions) LFE shift to
output based performance standardsJan.2018 SGER coverts to Carbon Competitiveness Regulation: Sector‐specific output based performance standards, based on best quartile of performance in sector.Compliance options unchanged
Source: Canada’s Eco‐Fiscal Commission
Incentives can steer the market
Oil Sands 22%
Other Oil and Gas 23%
Electricity 17%
Other Industry, Manufacturing, & Construction
9%
Agriculture, Forestry, & Waste 9%
Transportation11%
Buildings and Houses9%
Alberta 2013 emissions: 267 MT (37% National Emissions) 2030 Coal
phase‐outNegotiated shut down of ~6 plants on top of 12 plants already affected by federal coal regs & provincial air regs
2/3 of retired coal will be replaced with renewable power, through a clean power call
Final generation mix 2/3 natural gas, 1/3 renewables
Incentives can steer the market
Oil Sands 22%
Other Oil and Gas 23%
Electricity 17%
Other Industry, Manufacturing, & Construction
9%
Agriculture, Forestry, & Waste 9%
Transportation11%
Buildings and Houses9%
Alberta 2013 emissions: 267 MT (37% National Emissions) 100 MT
cap on oil sands30 MT headroom above current emissions
Implementation still TBD
Incentives can steer the market
Oil Sands 22%
Other Oil and Gas 23%
Electricity 17%
Other Industry, Manufacturing, & Construction
9%
Agriculture, Forestry, & Waste 9%
Transportation11%
Buildings and Houses9%
Alberta 2013 emissions: 267 MT (37% National Emissions) 45%
reduction in CH4emissions by 202514 MT, cost <$30/t
Eligible for offsets to 2020;
Regulations take effect post 2020
Incentives can steer the market
Oil Sands 22%
Other Oil and Gas 23%
Electricity 17%
Other Industry, Manufacturing, & Construction
9%
Agriculture, Forestry, & Waste 9%
Transportation11%
Buildings and Houses9%
Alberta 2013 emissions: 267 MT (37% National Emissions)
Energy Efficiency AgencyFirst concerted energy efficiency programming in province
Stand alone utility model dictated by structure of Alberta electricity market
Renewables, bioenergy, technology ,
35%
Green infrastructure (transit), 23%Energy
efficiency, 7%
ates low middle come seholds, 24%
1% cut small business tax rate , 9%
support for vulnerable
communities, 2%
Use of Carbon Levy revenue: $9.6 B/5 years
Stephanie Cairns
Director, Sustainable CommunitiesSustainable [email protected]
sustainableprosperity.ca