LECTURE:07Industrialization &

Sustainability

M. A. Kamal, Ph.DDirector General

National Academy for Planning and Development

Out Line

1. Introduction2. Sustainable Agriculture3. Types of Farming4. Properties of Sustainable Agriculture5. Sustainable agriculture indicators 6. Contribution of Agriculture to Economy7. Production Achievement8. Challenges in Agriculture9. Conclusion10. Farewell Call

1. Introduction

1.1 World agriculture will undergo far-reaching economic and physical change in the coming 50 years. Population increase, urbanization and income growth will drive the demand for food while high energy prices, stress on natural resources, and climate change may act to constrain supply.

1.2 To feed the world’s growing population – projected to exceed 9 billion in 2050 (UN, 2009) – it will be necessary to boost the production of food and to do so sustainably. To be sustainable, agriculture will need to be intensified and its environmental footprint made to shrink.

1.3 Most of the projected population growth will occur in developing countries, where smallholder farming dominates and average yields are low.

1.4 The diminishing availability of agriculturally productive land and the need to minimize the further loss and degradation of natural habitats such as forests, wetlands, and long-term pastures call for efficiency gains in the use of resources and the achievement of higher yields.

1.5 The agricultural sector has potential to create economic growth in rural areas. It generates job opportunities in adding value (as in the food processing industry), in bringing agricultural products to the consumer (market linkages), and in providing support (infrastructure, information, quality control and training).

2. Sustainable Agriculture

2.1 At the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) defined “Sustainable agriculture and rural development” as follows:

“Sustainable development is the management and conservation of the natural resource base and the orientation of technological and institutional change in such a manner as to ensure the attainment and continued satisfaction of human needs for present and future generations. Such sustainable development (in the agriculture, forestry and fisheries sectors) conserves land, water, plant and animal genetic resources, is environmentally non-degrading, technically appropriate, economically viable and socially acceptable.”

In 1995 FAO went on to define sustainable agriculture and rural development more specifically as a process that meets the following criteria:

• “Ensures that the basic nutritional requirements of present and future generations, qualitatively and quantitatively, are met while providing a number of other agricultural products.

• Provides durable employment, sufficient income and decent living and working conditions for all those engaged in agricultural production.

• Maintains and, where possible, enhances the productive capacity of the natural resource base as a whole, and the regenerative capacity of renewable resources, without disrupting the functioning of basic ecological cycles and natural balances, destroying the socio-cultural attributes of rural communities, or causing contamination of the environment, and

• Reduces the vulnerability of the agricultural sector to adverse natural and socio-economic factors and other risks, and strengthens self-reliance.”

“A sustainable agricultural system is one that can indefinitely meet the requirements for food, feed, and fiber at socially acceptable economical and environmental costs”

-Adapted from Pierre Crosson

3. Types of Farming

3.1There are three broad types of farming:

i. traditional production systems,ii. conventional modern agriculture (such as Green

Revolution technologies), andiii.Sustainable agriculture

4.1 Conway’s three properties are:

a.Productivityb.Stabilityc.Resiliency

Source: Conway, G.R. and Barbier, E.B. 1990. After the Green Revolution. Sustainable Agriculture for Development. Earthscan, London. 205 p.

4. Properties of Sustainable Agriculture

4.2 Productivity

Net increment of valued product per unit of resource (kg/ha for example)

4.3. Stability

Degree to which productivity remains constant over time when not faced with a shock (1/CV productivity)

4.4 Resiliency

The ability of a system to maintain or recover productivity when subject to stress or shock.

5. Sustainable agriculture indicators

5.1Producers

Producers harvest food, feed and fiber

“Food” includes grain, fruits and vegetables, livestock, aquaculture, as well as natural products

Producers may also engage in processing and marketing of food, feed and fiber

Producers may reside in settled communities, refugee/IDP camps or be pastoralists

5.2 Agricultural Technologies

Agriculture technologies refer to

The practices of combining of land, labor, capital, and knowledge to

Produce, market, distribute, utilize, and trade food, feed, and fiber

Some examples: planting in rows, rotation, integrated farming systems, water conservation/harvesting, cover cropping, etc.

5.3 A sustainable agriculture system

Nurtures natural resources and maintains ecological balance

Is driven by market demand and economically viable

Ensures local replicability, gender equity, and social acceptability

Generates predictable income

Considers availability of household labor and seasonality of labor demand

6. Contribution of Agriculture to Economy in BANGLADESH

6.1 84% : Population in rural areas- 23.4% : Agri-contribution to GDP- 13.44%: Crop sector’s contribution

to GDP- 63% : Labour force in agriculture- Modern Agriculture: Production, Development, Processing,

Marketing Extension etc.

Table-1: Share of Agriculture in GDP (%)

Sector/Sub Sector

1992-93 1995-96 1999-00 2002-03

Agriculture 23.28 20.32 19.49 18.23

Crop 17.71 15.03 14.59 13.44

Livestock 3.56 3.36 3.02 2.92

Forestry 2.01 1.93 1.88 1.87

Fishery 4.93 5.36 6.09 5.23

Source: Bangladesh Economic Review

7. Achievement : Production Achievement

Table-2 : Food grain Production (in Lac mt.)

Food grain

1993-94 1995-96 1997-98 1999-00 2000-01 2003-04

Rice 180.4 176.9 188.62 230.67 243.0 263.8

Wheat 11.3 13.7 18.02 18.40 16.06 12.0

Maize - - - - 1.52 2.0

Total 191.7 190.6 206.64 249.07 260.58 277.8

Source: Bangladesh Economic Review

7.1 Production Achievement

Fig.-1 : Trend of food grain Production

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250

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Year

Pro

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Rice 180.4 176.9 188.62 230.67 243 263.8

Wheat 11.3 13.7 18.02 18.4 16.06 12

Maize 1.52 2

1993-94 1995-96 1997-98 1999-00 2000-01 2003-04

7.2 Production Achievement

1970-71 : 10.1 mmt Rice Production

2003-04 : 26.4 mmt.

Wheat increased by 15 times Last 3 decadesMaize increased by 50 times

Last decadeVeg. increased by 114 times

Per head food provision : From 436 gm. to 540 gm.

7.3 Research Achievement

BRRI : 41 HYVs, 1 Hybrid Resistant Varieties

BARI : 225 Improved VarietiesWheat 21Potato 30Vegetables 41Pulses 25Oilseeds 30Spices 11

7.4 Export Achievement

1972-73 : 93% Export Earning – Jute + Tea2000-01 : 5% Export Earning – Jute + Tea

1972-73 : US$ 13000 Export Earning from Horticulture1992-93 : US$ 9 m Export Earning from Horticulture1997-98 : US$ 32 m Export Earning from Horticulture1998-99 : US$ 18 m Export Earning from Horticulture2001-02 : US$ 15 Export Earning from Horticulture

8. Challenges in Agriculture

8.1 Depletion of Soil Fertility : low nutrition + low C8.2 Falling Productivity of HYV : Stagnancy in

Research8.3 Dominition of Rice : 75% Cropped area8.4 Decrease of Cultivable Land : 82000 ha decrease

annually8.5 Population Increase : Additional 2.5 mmt by 2015

Challenges (contd.)

8.6 Non-Irrigated Land : 42%

8.7 High Production Cost : Irrigation 26% P. Cost Subsidy only 0.1%

8.8 Marketing and storage Problems

Fig-2 : Projected Food Availability Scenario

Future Challenge

0

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Food

gra

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ultiv

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Popu

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Cultivated Land Area (m.ha) 9.80 7.23 6.48 5.66

Production (m.m.ton) 9.87 26.89 30.40 33.70

Demand (m.m.ton) 13.64 23.50 27.21 31.33

Population (million) 75.00 129.20 145.00 161.20

1970 2002 2010 2020

9. Conclusion

9.1 Transforms Agriculture into a dynamic Sector

9.2 Requires Updating

10. Farewell Call

“If you want to be happy for the whole day- slaughter a sheep and have a feast with your friends. If you want to be happy for about a month then marry. But if you want to be happy for many years to come then go for gardening.”

-Chinese Proverb (2000 BC)

Thank you for your

attention