Prof Zahurul Karim PhD

Prof. A.K. Enamul Haque PhD

Mainstreaming Climate Change

CONVERGENCE OF POLICIES AND PROGRAMS FORSUSTAINABLE AND CLIMATE RESILIENT

AGRICULTURE

`````Annual Conference of AES, Kathmandu,Nepal

13-14 Feb 2015

AGRICULTURE CONTRIBUTION TO GDP

GDP at current basic price – 11,412, 612 mill. Taka( 2011-12) GDP growth rate 6.12%Growth rate in Agriculture 3.35% Total Farm Families- 13.5 No. Population Growth Rate 1.47% Population Deensity 976 per Sq.kmNCA – 8.5 mha.

AGRICULTURE IN BANGLADESH

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Agriculture plays an important role in Bangladesh economy contributing about 19% of the GDP

Contribution of Agriculture to GDP (%) at constant price ( Base year- 1995-96)

Crops-55%

Livestock13%

Fisheries23%

Forestry9%

Mainstreaming Climate ChangeMainstreaming Climate ChangeMainstreaming Climate ChangeTREND IN PRODUCTION OF RICE AND NON-RICE CROPSFROM 1980-81 TO 1010-11

Mainstreaming Climate ChangeMainstreaming Climate Change

FISHERIES PRODUCTION

LIVESTOCK CONTRIBUTION Contribute to GDP around 2.2 % and its growth is about 1.8 % Major source of employment for landless people, Consumption of food from animal origin is increasing but still it is below the desired level.

Water logging

Drought

Flood

Cyclone Storm surge, salinity

MAJOR EVENTS OF CLIMATIC VULNERABILITIES IN BANGLADESH

Bank Erosion

Mazumder, 2011

RISK TO AGRICULTURE

Diversity in ago-ecological zone make Bangladesh to CC, Nearly 70% of its agricultural land is regularly flooded- as such sea level rise makes most of the agricultural land vulnerable to flooding, Climate Change likely to make shift in the rainfall pattern with increased temperature – this will bring a major change in reference growing period i.e. crop growing season

REGISTERED VULNERABILITY DUE TO CCVulnerability to Bangladesh Agriculture Bangladesh a least developed country with predominantly low-lying alluvial plain most

vulnerable to CC- IPCC/UNFCCC; Average temperature has registered an increasing trend of about 10C in May and 0.50C

in November during the 14 year period from 1985-1998. The annual mean rainfall exhibits trends in Bangladesh. Decadal rain anomalies are

above long term average since 1960s. Serious and recurring floods have taken place during 2002, 2003, and 2004. Cyclones

originating from the Bay of Bengal have been noted to decrease since 1970 but the intensity has increased.

Frequency of monsoon depressions and cyclones formation in Bay of Bengal has decreased.

Salt water from the Bay of Bengal is reported to have penetrated 100 km or more inland along tributary channels during the dry season.

The precipitation decline and droughts has resulted in the drying up of wetlands and severe degradation of eco-system

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Climate Change Threats to Agriculture

Crop

• Climate change will bring major change in reference growing periods, necessitating restructuring of crops and cropping pattern.

• Crop modeler/World Bank predict 7.4% loss of annual rice production. • Temperature increase will drastically affect wheat area and productivity- decrease of 400

kg /ha for 1o c increase.• All other temperate crops are also susceptible to rise of temperature during Jan-Feb.• Increase in fogginess and relative humidity increase incidence of pest and diseases and

some times causes devastating failure of potato, pulses, etc. Due to unpredicted and erratic rainfall pattern crops yields are expected decrease 30%

in 2100. Production of rice & wheat will reduce 8.8%, and 32% within 2050 respectively. 13% areas of Bagerhat, Khulna & Satkhira of southern coastal districts are salinity

affected which will increase up to 16% in 2050 and 18% in 2100Livestock

Reduction in the quality and availability of feed and water; Heat and other environmental stresses arising from warmer, drier or more wet conditions; Preponderance of livestock parasites, pests and disease vector.

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CLIMATE CHANGE THREATS TO AGRICULTURE (CONTD.)

Fisheries Most deleterious effect ~ Loss of Floodplains and destruction of habitat;Death rate of shrimp’s fingerlings will increase if the water temperature is more than 32°C (CEGIS).Diseases of fish may increase. Carps culture may reduce due to saline water intrusion in the ponds and open water bodies.Production of sweet water fish will shrink and extinct if the sea level rise.Corals are vulnerable to thermal stress, if the sea surface temperature increases 1-3°c corals bleaching will occur frequently. Habitat damage of Hilsa fish.

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TWELVE ENDANGERED FISH SPECIES

Mangrove ForestAbout 75% area of mangrove forest, Sundarban (60007 Sq. km) will submerse if the sea level will increase 45 cm.If the sea level rise 1 m then the islands of Bay of Bengal and whole Sundarban will destroy including its fauna & flora.

Policy / Plans

Major Climate Change Issue Concerned Ministries

Country Investment Plan, 2011

•The plan has emphasized on the investment in 12 priority areas considering thechallenges ahead of the country in terms of higher population density, climatechange and scarcity of water and land for agriculture.

•Priority interventions are building of modern storage facilities that are betterequipped to adapt to the CC impacts and resist disaster shock, to maintainquality and increase shelf-life.

Mo Fin. MoP., MoF, MoA, MoFL, MoWR, Mo HP, MoEF, MoL, MoWomen Affairs,

National Agricultural Policy,

2013

One of the stated objectives of the Policy is to make Bangladesh agriculture sustainable and climate resilient in order to deal with climate change related threats. It has emphasized on research, extension services, technology transfers and information in order make this to happen.

MoA

NATIONAL FOOD POLICY

The National Food Policy Plan of Action (2008-15) has also recognized thethreats of climate change and emphasized on developing long and short termforecasts or developing climate change related early warning system (EWS) todeal with risks on food production.

MoF

NATIONAL WATER POLICY 1999

The policy did not explicitly cited the climate change related challenges in it butit had raised concerns about water scarcity during different seasons.sedimentation in rivers and bank erosion, managing surface and ground waterresources through promotion of efficient technologies, responsible water use andalso maintenance of water for eco-systems.

MoA, MoWR

SOUTHERN MASTER PLAN

considered CC issues focusing on increasing agricultural productivity, managing degraded land, developing climate resilient infrastructure and improving surface water irrigation systems , resilient practices in agriculture for productivity enhancement.

MoA, MoWR

REVIEW OF POLICIES & PROGRAMS

Policy / Plans Major Climate Change Issue Concerned Ministries

Perspective Plan

2010-2021

Pursuing environmental friendly development have been speciallymentioned as broad development goals of perspective plan.

MoP

Sixth Five Year

Plan (2011-2015)

The Sixth Five Year Plan (SFYP) is the first of two mid-term indicative

plans aiming to “develop strategies, policies and institutions that

allow Bangladesh to accelerate growth and reduce poverty” for the

implementation of Vision 2021.. In case of food production, climate

change adaptation strategy in the agriculture sector is also

prioritized.

MoP

Sustainable Agricultural Development Strategies for the Chittagong Hill Tracts (2013).

It concerns environmental degradation and food insecurity in theregion and define priorities in the areas of enhancing productivity,conservation and diversification, and more sustainable jum farming

MoCHTA, MoA

National Sustainable Development Strategy (2010-2021)

Sustainable practices for agriculture including water managementhave been highlighted. Restoration of surface water, rivermanagement, water scarcity have been highlighted. Natural disastermanagement and climate change challenges have been identified andmeasure suggested.

MoP

REVIEW OF POLICIES & PROGRAMS

CLIMATE CHANGE RELATED POLICIES AND ACTIONSBCCSAP

Climate Change Trust Fund (CCTF) Bangladesh Climate Change Resilient Fund(BCCRF); NAPA Identified projects for some climate hotspot areas;

NAMAkeeping in view the shrinking land base, degradation of land and soil fertility, risk due to heavy dependence on rice cultivation, policies like reducing extend of flood-irrigation, improvement of carbon sequestration in soil and improving energy and water efficiency in agriculture were suggested under NAMA framework in Bangladesh.

Actions by Convergence of Policies/Programs

• Polder building/maintenance:

– Jointly by MoWR, MoA, MoEF and MoFL following policy guidelines of respective ministries

• Agricultural Adaptation:

– Converging policy areas of BCCSAP & NAP and implementing jointly by MoEF and MoA

• Sustainable practices for Agricultural and Water Management:

– Implementation of NSDS jointly by MoA, MoWR and MoLthrough a task force

• Cultivation of low water consuming crops:

– Promote integrated team of work from the MoA, MoWRand LGED

RESILIENT FARMING PRACTICES

Raised-bed cultivation in saline area

Floating Cultivation

Rain water harvestingSupplementary irrigation

RESILIENT FARMING PRACTICES

Varietal DevelopmentClimatic Stress Tolerant Rice Varieties Salt Tolerant Boro: BRRI Dhan 47, 61, 67; Bina dhan-8 & 10 T.Aman: BRRI Dhan 40, 41, 53,54 and

Aus: BRRI dhan 65Flood Tolerant: Late Monsoon Flood: T.Aman: BR-22 and BR-23; Bina sailFlash Flood: Submergence Tolerant: BRRI dhan 51 and 52; Bina dhan-11 & 12Drought Tolerant: BRRI dhan 56,57 and 66 Suitable for Monga Area:

Short Duration: BRRI dhan 33, 56, 57 and 62; Bina dhan 7 & 16Wheat

Salt tolerant : Bijoy, BARI Gom-25, BAU-1059 lineHeat tolerant : BARI Gom-26

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RESILIENT FARMING PRACTICES (Contd.)Management Practices Some management practices, such as tillage, mulching, raised bed planting system, floating

techniques of vegetables cultivation; Fertilizer and irrigation recommendation both for drought and coastal saline regions; conducted adaptive trials with some success of strains of Wheat, Maize Potatoes and Leafy

vegetables; Developed Ektibari Ekti Khamar model suited for climate stress conditions; Developed water harvesting technology appropriate for farm water management and soil

conservation practices.

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STRATEGIES FOR DEVELOPING SUSTAINABLE AND CLIMATE RESILIENT AGRICULTURE

Adaptations against Slow Onset Disasters:• Monitoring and recording slow onset disasters • Research and Extension• Support for small scale coastal and marine fishers• Support for farmers in the drought-prone region• Building agri-diversity in coastal and drought areas• Promoting crop switch and crop rotation • Smart Farming Practices

Adaptations to Climate Variability and Climate Extremes

•Improving short term forecasts and early warning system•Ensuring supply of agri-inputs for alternative crops•Changes in the quality of extension services•Research and innovation•Shelters for animals during flood and cyclone•Strengthening flood-control infrastructure•Seed/seedling supplies for crop replacement•Supplementary irrigation facilities •Promoting culture fishing•Buffer stocks of feed in disaster prone regions•Disease and pest control in agriculture

Adaptations to Long term Climate Change• Adjusting flood control infrastructure against SLR• Adjusting irrigation infrastructure • Education and training• Facilitating migration• Promoting alternative livelihood strategies• Research and Innovation• Institutional changes to coordinate post-disaster programs• Promoting access to finance through commodity exchange and insurance markets• Combining mitigation with adaptation

General Measures for Building Resilience•Varietal Development •Management practices to deal with water and saline stresses•Agricultural input supplies•Quick remedial crops•Water conservation practices •Deep tillage and sowing techniques•Crop calendar adjustment•Tidal zone agricultural practices•Agricultural practices in water-logged areas

STRATEGIES FOR DEVELOPING SUSTAINABLE AND CLIMATE RESILIENT AGRICULTURE

STUDY SUPPORT TO 7th FIVE YEAR PLANi) The study will serve as data base for the preparation of 7th five year plan;ii) Sustainable agricultural development is the thrust area for of Bangladesh

and the information provided on conversance of policies and program shall be useful for 7th five year planning process;

iii) Surface water augmentation is a vital issue for sustaining irrigated agriculture in managing vulnerability due to environmental threats;

iv) The study findings would be an aid in resolving issues on CC confronting agriculture and food security;

v) Entire agriculture and natural resources sector need to be revitalized and priority should be given in the resource allocation of 6th Five Year Plan;

vi) The study will help developing options in the preparation of long term delta plan; and

vii) Mainstreaming climate change in the national development plan.

Thanks

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