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Prof Zahurul Karim PhD
Prof. A.K. Enamul Haque PhD
Mainstreaming Climate Change
CONVERGENCE OF POLICIES AND PROGRAMS FORSUSTAINABLE AND CLIMATE RESILIENT
AGRICULTURE
`````Annual Conference of AES, Kathmandu,Nepal
13-14 Feb 2015
AGRICULTURE CONTRIBUTION TO GDP
GDP at current basic price – 11,412, 612 mill. Taka( 2011-12) GDP growth rate 6.12%Growth rate in Agriculture 3.35% Total Farm Families- 13.5 No. Population Growth Rate 1.47% Population Deensity 976 per Sq.kmNCA – 8.5 mha.
AGRICULTURE IN BANGLADESH
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Agriculture plays an important role in Bangladesh economy contributing about 19% of the GDP
Contribution of Agriculture to GDP (%) at constant price ( Base year- 1995-96)
Crops-55%
Livestock13%
Fisheries23%
Forestry9%
Mainstreaming Climate ChangeMainstreaming Climate ChangeMainstreaming Climate ChangeTREND IN PRODUCTION OF RICE AND NON-RICE CROPSFROM 1980-81 TO 1010-11
Mainstreaming Climate ChangeMainstreaming Climate Change
FISHERIES PRODUCTION
LIVESTOCK CONTRIBUTION Contribute to GDP around 2.2 % and its growth is about 1.8 % Major source of employment for landless people, Consumption of food from animal origin is increasing but still it is below the desired level.
Water logging
Drought
Flood
Cyclone Storm surge, salinity
MAJOR EVENTS OF CLIMATIC VULNERABILITIES IN BANGLADESH
Bank Erosion
Mazumder, 2011
RISK TO AGRICULTURE
Diversity in ago-ecological zone make Bangladesh to CC, Nearly 70% of its agricultural land is regularly flooded- as such sea level rise makes most of the agricultural land vulnerable to flooding, Climate Change likely to make shift in the rainfall pattern with increased temperature – this will bring a major change in reference growing period i.e. crop growing season
REGISTERED VULNERABILITY DUE TO CCVulnerability to Bangladesh Agriculture Bangladesh a least developed country with predominantly low-lying alluvial plain most
vulnerable to CC- IPCC/UNFCCC; Average temperature has registered an increasing trend of about 10C in May and 0.50C
in November during the 14 year period from 1985-1998. The annual mean rainfall exhibits trends in Bangladesh. Decadal rain anomalies are
above long term average since 1960s. Serious and recurring floods have taken place during 2002, 2003, and 2004. Cyclones
originating from the Bay of Bengal have been noted to decrease since 1970 but the intensity has increased.
Frequency of monsoon depressions and cyclones formation in Bay of Bengal has decreased.
Salt water from the Bay of Bengal is reported to have penetrated 100 km or more inland along tributary channels during the dry season.
The precipitation decline and droughts has resulted in the drying up of wetlands and severe degradation of eco-system
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Climate Change Threats to Agriculture
Crop
• Climate change will bring major change in reference growing periods, necessitating restructuring of crops and cropping pattern.
• Crop modeler/World Bank predict 7.4% loss of annual rice production. • Temperature increase will drastically affect wheat area and productivity- decrease of 400
kg /ha for 1o c increase.• All other temperate crops are also susceptible to rise of temperature during Jan-Feb.• Increase in fogginess and relative humidity increase incidence of pest and diseases and
some times causes devastating failure of potato, pulses, etc. Due to unpredicted and erratic rainfall pattern crops yields are expected decrease 30%
in 2100. Production of rice & wheat will reduce 8.8%, and 32% within 2050 respectively. 13% areas of Bagerhat, Khulna & Satkhira of southern coastal districts are salinity
affected which will increase up to 16% in 2050 and 18% in 2100Livestock
Reduction in the quality and availability of feed and water; Heat and other environmental stresses arising from warmer, drier or more wet conditions; Preponderance of livestock parasites, pests and disease vector.
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CLIMATE CHANGE THREATS TO AGRICULTURE (CONTD.)
Fisheries Most deleterious effect ~ Loss of Floodplains and destruction of habitat;Death rate of shrimp’s fingerlings will increase if the water temperature is more than 32°C (CEGIS).Diseases of fish may increase. Carps culture may reduce due to saline water intrusion in the ponds and open water bodies.Production of sweet water fish will shrink and extinct if the sea level rise.Corals are vulnerable to thermal stress, if the sea surface temperature increases 1-3°c corals bleaching will occur frequently. Habitat damage of Hilsa fish.
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TWELVE ENDANGERED FISH SPECIES
Mangrove ForestAbout 75% area of mangrove forest, Sundarban (60007 Sq. km) will submerse if the sea level will increase 45 cm.If the sea level rise 1 m then the islands of Bay of Bengal and whole Sundarban will destroy including its fauna & flora.
Policy / Plans
Major Climate Change Issue Concerned Ministries
Country Investment Plan, 2011
•The plan has emphasized on the investment in 12 priority areas considering thechallenges ahead of the country in terms of higher population density, climatechange and scarcity of water and land for agriculture.
•Priority interventions are building of modern storage facilities that are betterequipped to adapt to the CC impacts and resist disaster shock, to maintainquality and increase shelf-life.
Mo Fin. MoP., MoF, MoA, MoFL, MoWR, Mo HP, MoEF, MoL, MoWomen Affairs,
National Agricultural Policy,
2013
One of the stated objectives of the Policy is to make Bangladesh agriculture sustainable and climate resilient in order to deal with climate change related threats. It has emphasized on research, extension services, technology transfers and information in order make this to happen.
MoA
NATIONAL FOOD POLICY
The National Food Policy Plan of Action (2008-15) has also recognized thethreats of climate change and emphasized on developing long and short termforecasts or developing climate change related early warning system (EWS) todeal with risks on food production.
MoF
NATIONAL WATER POLICY 1999
The policy did not explicitly cited the climate change related challenges in it butit had raised concerns about water scarcity during different seasons.sedimentation in rivers and bank erosion, managing surface and ground waterresources through promotion of efficient technologies, responsible water use andalso maintenance of water for eco-systems.
MoA, MoWR
SOUTHERN MASTER PLAN
considered CC issues focusing on increasing agricultural productivity, managing degraded land, developing climate resilient infrastructure and improving surface water irrigation systems , resilient practices in agriculture for productivity enhancement.
MoA, MoWR
REVIEW OF POLICIES & PROGRAMS
Policy / Plans Major Climate Change Issue Concerned Ministries
Perspective Plan
2010-2021
Pursuing environmental friendly development have been speciallymentioned as broad development goals of perspective plan.
MoP
Sixth Five Year
Plan (2011-2015)
The Sixth Five Year Plan (SFYP) is the first of two mid-term indicative
plans aiming to “develop strategies, policies and institutions that
allow Bangladesh to accelerate growth and reduce poverty” for the
implementation of Vision 2021.. In case of food production, climate
change adaptation strategy in the agriculture sector is also
prioritized.
MoP
Sustainable Agricultural Development Strategies for the Chittagong Hill Tracts (2013).
It concerns environmental degradation and food insecurity in theregion and define priorities in the areas of enhancing productivity,conservation and diversification, and more sustainable jum farming
MoCHTA, MoA
National Sustainable Development Strategy (2010-2021)
Sustainable practices for agriculture including water managementhave been highlighted. Restoration of surface water, rivermanagement, water scarcity have been highlighted. Natural disastermanagement and climate change challenges have been identified andmeasure suggested.
MoP
REVIEW OF POLICIES & PROGRAMS
CLIMATE CHANGE RELATED POLICIES AND ACTIONSBCCSAP
Climate Change Trust Fund (CCTF) Bangladesh Climate Change Resilient Fund(BCCRF); NAPA Identified projects for some climate hotspot areas;
NAMAkeeping in view the shrinking land base, degradation of land and soil fertility, risk due to heavy dependence on rice cultivation, policies like reducing extend of flood-irrigation, improvement of carbon sequestration in soil and improving energy and water efficiency in agriculture were suggested under NAMA framework in Bangladesh.
Actions by Convergence of Policies/Programs
• Polder building/maintenance:
– Jointly by MoWR, MoA, MoEF and MoFL following policy guidelines of respective ministries
• Agricultural Adaptation:
– Converging policy areas of BCCSAP & NAP and implementing jointly by MoEF and MoA
• Sustainable practices for Agricultural and Water Management:
– Implementation of NSDS jointly by MoA, MoWR and MoLthrough a task force
• Cultivation of low water consuming crops:
– Promote integrated team of work from the MoA, MoWRand LGED
RESILIENT FARMING PRACTICES
Raised-bed cultivation in saline area
Floating Cultivation
Rain water harvestingSupplementary irrigation
RESILIENT FARMING PRACTICES
Varietal DevelopmentClimatic Stress Tolerant Rice Varieties Salt Tolerant Boro: BRRI Dhan 47, 61, 67; Bina dhan-8 & 10 T.Aman: BRRI Dhan 40, 41, 53,54 and
Aus: BRRI dhan 65Flood Tolerant: Late Monsoon Flood: T.Aman: BR-22 and BR-23; Bina sailFlash Flood: Submergence Tolerant: BRRI dhan 51 and 52; Bina dhan-11 & 12Drought Tolerant: BRRI dhan 56,57 and 66 Suitable for Monga Area:
Short Duration: BRRI dhan 33, 56, 57 and 62; Bina dhan 7 & 16Wheat
Salt tolerant : Bijoy, BARI Gom-25, BAU-1059 lineHeat tolerant : BARI Gom-26
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RESILIENT FARMING PRACTICES (Contd.)Management Practices Some management practices, such as tillage, mulching, raised bed planting system, floating
techniques of vegetables cultivation; Fertilizer and irrigation recommendation both for drought and coastal saline regions; conducted adaptive trials with some success of strains of Wheat, Maize Potatoes and Leafy
vegetables; Developed Ektibari Ekti Khamar model suited for climate stress conditions; Developed water harvesting technology appropriate for farm water management and soil
conservation practices.
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STRATEGIES FOR DEVELOPING SUSTAINABLE AND CLIMATE RESILIENT AGRICULTURE
Adaptations against Slow Onset Disasters:• Monitoring and recording slow onset disasters • Research and Extension• Support for small scale coastal and marine fishers• Support for farmers in the drought-prone region• Building agri-diversity in coastal and drought areas• Promoting crop switch and crop rotation • Smart Farming Practices
Adaptations to Climate Variability and Climate Extremes
•Improving short term forecasts and early warning system•Ensuring supply of agri-inputs for alternative crops•Changes in the quality of extension services•Research and innovation•Shelters for animals during flood and cyclone•Strengthening flood-control infrastructure•Seed/seedling supplies for crop replacement•Supplementary irrigation facilities •Promoting culture fishing•Buffer stocks of feed in disaster prone regions•Disease and pest control in agriculture
Adaptations to Long term Climate Change• Adjusting flood control infrastructure against SLR• Adjusting irrigation infrastructure • Education and training• Facilitating migration• Promoting alternative livelihood strategies• Research and Innovation• Institutional changes to coordinate post-disaster programs• Promoting access to finance through commodity exchange and insurance markets• Combining mitigation with adaptation
General Measures for Building Resilience•Varietal Development •Management practices to deal with water and saline stresses•Agricultural input supplies•Quick remedial crops•Water conservation practices •Deep tillage and sowing techniques•Crop calendar adjustment•Tidal zone agricultural practices•Agricultural practices in water-logged areas
STRATEGIES FOR DEVELOPING SUSTAINABLE AND CLIMATE RESILIENT AGRICULTURE
STUDY SUPPORT TO 7th FIVE YEAR PLANi) The study will serve as data base for the preparation of 7th five year plan;ii) Sustainable agricultural development is the thrust area for of Bangladesh
and the information provided on conversance of policies and program shall be useful for 7th five year planning process;
iii) Surface water augmentation is a vital issue for sustaining irrigated agriculture in managing vulnerability due to environmental threats;
iv) The study findings would be an aid in resolving issues on CC confronting agriculture and food security;
v) Entire agriculture and natural resources sector need to be revitalized and priority should be given in the resource allocation of 6th Five Year Plan;
vi) The study will help developing options in the preparation of long term delta plan; and
vii) Mainstreaming climate change in the national development plan.