Agriculture Development and Climate Change : A First Order Assessment of Indian Policies

Agriculture and GHGs emissions

Broad and Core National Policies in Agriculture & Allied

Sectors

Growth in irrigated area and fertilizer use and food production

and productivity

Climate Smart Agriculture

Criteria for evaluation of effectiveness of development

policies in meeting climate change challenges

Results of policies ‘assessment in terms combating climate

change impacts

Inferences and way ahead

This Presentation covers

Contribution of Agriculture to India’s GHG Emission Budget

Total Emission from agriculture, MtCO2e =334.4

Emissions from enteric fermentation = 50%

Emissions from paddy fields = 21%

Emissions from agricultural soils = 16.5%

Emissions from crop residue = 1.9%

Emissions from manure management = 1.4%

Concern : Agriculture in India contributes 19 % of the country’s total

GHG emissions as compared to global average of 13.5 %

Concept of Climate Smart Agriculture (Source: Aggarwal

2010)

Climate Smart

Nitrogen smart

Water smart

Energy smart

Carbon smart

Weather smart

Knowledgesmart

Policy smart

Climate smart interventions (FAO)

Adapting/mitigating climate change

Ensure reducing the risk arising due to

climate change

Augmenting farm income.

Triple wins (World Bank)

Higher yields, more carbon

sequestration, and greater resilience

to heat and drought

Feasible interventions

Resource endowments

Capacity indicators

Implementation of climate agriculture requires its mainstreaming in

development policies

Broad National Policy Initiatives for Climate

Change and Sustainable Agriculture in India

National Action Plan for Climate Change

National Environment Policy

National Agricultural Policy

National Water Policy

National Disaster management Policy

National Forest Policy

National Livestock Policy

Core Agriculture Policies in India Improved seeds, fertilizer, irrigation expansion, watershed

development, provision of insurance and weather forecast

High subsidy regime

Groundwater development is largely private

Electricity for pumping is highly subsidized

Crop and livestock insurance and micro financing to reduce

vulnerability

National Agriculture Development Policy Orientation

Till very recently, policies aimed at agriculture intensificationthrough scaling-out ‘Green revolution technologies’ (GRTs),such as irrigation expansion , introduction of micro-irrigation,and increased application of chemical fertilizers etc withrelevant advisories , were pursued.

Whether these developments(the first incidental step towardsclimate smart agriculture) exacerbated or minimized GHGsemissions is the issue?

Area under irrigation (Mha) and fertilizer use (kg/ha) in India

Changes in Production and Productivity due to Policies and

Technologies

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1990 2000 2010

127 123 122151

191212

0

4256

Food grain area, m ha Food grain production

151 mt in 1990 to 212

mt in 2010

Food grain yields

1.19 t/ha in 1990 to 1.74

t/ha in 2010

Deforestation avoided by year : 2000= 42 m ha ;2010=56 m ha

Test for assessing the policy success in meeting

climate change impacts Whether these developments(the incidental steps towards

climate smart agriculture) exacerbated or minimized GHGsemissions is the issue?

To test the hypothesis that productivity increase leads toclimate change adaptation, the following criteria were chosen

Reduction in emission intensification/ mitigation with and without consideration of benefits of avoidance of deforestation (Mitigation Index)

Adaptation -in terms of increased per capita food grain availability (Adaptation Index)

Sustainability-of water and land ( Sustainability Index)

181 193

430

237 249

Em1990 Em2010(TP) Em2010(WTP) EmD2010 (TP) EMNFC 2010

Emission from cropland with and without

incremental technology adoption after 1990

(mtCO2e)

Implementation of technology policies(TP) reduced emission(Em)

by 237 mtCO2 e

Food grain carbon foot prints,( tonCO2e per ton FG)

1990=1.196

2010=0.907The foot prints can be further lowered by 50 % through CSA

Intensification (IFI) and Mitigation (MI) indices for GRTs

Technology Em2010

AFC

Em2010

NAFC

Intensification Index

(IFI) (%)

Mitigation Index

(MI) (%)

Mitigation Intensificati

on IIFAFC IIFNAFC MIAFC MINAFC

All GRTs (-)107.4* (+) 141.80 5.22 46.10 94.78 53.90

Fertilizer (-) 12.26 (+) 35.22

Irrigation

(SW+GW)**

(-) 87.32 (+) 7.78

Irrigation (GW) (-) 41.20 (+) 15.72

Micro-irrigation

Current area (-)2.15 (+) 1.25

*(+) = Increase in

emissions/intensification;

(-) = Decrease in emissions/mitigation

**SW=Surface water;

GW=Groundwater

Intensification Index (IFIAFC)2010=

(Em2010TP – EmTP1990)/ EM2010WTP

Mitigation Index (MI )2010

Virtual Mitigation

For all the scaled out technologies, the intensification index (IIF) with

and without consideration of avoided forest conversion benefits

(AFC), is below 10 per cent and 50 per cent respectively;

indicating that the potential intensification with technology

policy was reduced to the extent of 90 per cent to 50 per cent.

This reduction in intensification is referred to as virtual mitigation.

The virtual mitigation potential of micro-irrigation was found to be

significantly high; a fact that future research and policies in this

realm could potentially exploit.

Estimated values of food grain availability (kg/ha/year)

and Adaptation indices (AI) for different GRTsTechnology Increase in food

availability)

(kg/cap/year)

Adaptation

Index (AI) (%)Remarks

All GRTs 72.00 26.10Food grain availability for population

of 846.3 million in 1990 was 202.8

kg/capita/year.

AI = (FGA2010 – FGA1990)------------------

FGA1990

*Values within brackets represent

increase in food availability at 40 Mha

of micro-irrigation.

Fertilizer 14.37 5.28

Irrigation(SW+G

W)

28.74 10.56

Ground

water(GW)

17.24 6.34

Micro-irrigation 3.48(37.8)* -

Item Level of development (BCM)

2000 2010 2050

Surface water 360 (690)* 404 647

Groundwater 210 (396)* 260 396

Degree of stress

DDS 0.522 (High) 0.586 (High) 0.938

(Extremely high)

GWAR 0.530 (Normal) 0.657 (High) >1.00

(Extremely high)

*Values in parenthesis are the exploitable water potentials

Water resources potential ,development, and degree

of stress (2000-2050)

Fluctuations in NPK consumption ratio in India

Years N:P2O5:K2O Fertilizer use imbalance

index

(FLiBI)

1961-65 8.2:2.2:1 -

1971-75 5.5:1.8:1 -

1981-85 6.3:2:1 -

1991-95 7.6:.7:1 -

2001-05 8.3:2.8:1 0.90-0.96

2006-10 7:2.6:1 0.04-0.05

InferencesThough not specifically targeted, but modernization of agriculture through

subsidies had a significant effect on total GHG emissions.

The good performance of development policies in irrigation and fertilizer

sector has :

-reduced climate change induced intensification. This may be called adaptation led mitigation or virtual mitigation

( Range 50-90 %)

- with incremental adoption of irrigation and fertilizer technologies, Adaptation Index (AI) increased from 0.19 to 0.26. A 27% Increase.

- But- performance in respect of sustainability of natural resources (water

and soil) is poor(DD> 0.90 ; GWAR>0. 95; NPK:: 7:2.6:1) .

- This is a matter of grave concern

Turning Down the Heat from Agriculture: What

Next?

In agriculture, adaptation would continue to be main mechanism for

meeting climate change challenge. But in place of incidental gain in

GHGs reduction, it will have to be more policy driven though

promotion of climate smart technologies for there is enough scope

Major required policy shifts:

Water and energy pricing for agriculture leading to increased

mechanization of agriculture with efficient technology

Policy on development and use of G M crops to cope with stress and

reduce energy foot prints

Policies for propagation of the concept of bio-industrial watersheds

to take care of the population moving-out of inefficient agriculture

Thanks for your attention