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Ana Elisa Cascão - SIWI
Presentation to TWM Global 2010
Maputo, Mozambique
HYDROPOLITICS (I): Water and Power
Structure of the Presentation
Today, 13:00 - 14:30• Water everywhere?• What is Hydropolitics?• Water: Transboundary ≠ Shared
Today, 14:45 - 17:00• Water and Power Relations• Exercise 1 • Hydropolitical conflict
Tomorrow, 8:30-10:00• Hydropolitical Cooperation
Exercise 1: Assessing power relations in transboundary river basins
Exercise 2: Making the pie bigger
Wat
er e
very
whe
re?
Freshwater
Wat
er e
very
whe
re?
Surface water
Groundwater + Surface Water
Small water...
HYDROPOLITICSHYDROPOLITICS
big politics!
Hydropolitics: is there a definition?
What can we see in this picture?
PowerWater
Control
Merowe Dam, Sudan
HYDROPOLITICS:‘who gets what water, when, where and how?’
Water: a complex resource...Natural resource Social resource
Economic resource Cultural resource
Political resource
Water: a complex resource...
Water: a transboundary political resource
Enough water for You and Me?
Nile
JordanEuphrates-Tigris
3 BASINS:
Transboundary river basins
But not (equitably) shared water resources
Water Resources: Transboundary ≠≠ Shared
Why?Why?
Asymmetric Power Relations
Asymmetric Power Relations:explanatory factor
Geography Material power
Bargaining power
Ideationalpower
4 PILLARS OF POWER
Framework of Hydro-Hegemony Zeitoun and Warner 2006
GEOGRAPHICAL POWER
Riparian Position:• Downstream• Midstream• Upstream
Geographical Advantages:• Contribution to river flow• Potential for water utilisation• Suitability for hydraulic infrastructure
MATERIAL POWER
Economic development
Military power
Political stability and influence
‘Water flows uphill towards
money’
‘Who calls the shots?’
BARGAINING POWER:in interstate relations and negotiations
WHO CONTROLS THE NEGOTIATIONS?
WHO CONTROLS
THE AGREEMENTS?
WHO CONTROLS
THE NUMBERS?
WHO CONTROLS
THE AGENDA?
WHO CONTROLS
THE LEGITIMACY?
WHO PLAYS BETTER WITH
INTERNATIONAL LAW?
WHO HAS ACCESS TO
INVESTMENT?
IDEATIONAL POWER: Power to influence perceptions
Asymmetric Knowledge
SanctionedDiscourse
Incentives
Playingwith time
Silent
Diplomacy/Cooperation
EXERCISE 1: Assessing power relations in transboundary river basins
• Select 3 or 4 riparian states from your basin and assess the four dimensions of power for each of them
• Power dimensions to take into account:
• Classify each dimension as Strong, Middle, or Weak
EXERCISE 1: Assessing power relations in transboundary river basins
Geography:
•Riparian position•Contribution to water availability in the Basin
•Suitability for hydraulic projects
Material Power:
•Economic development•Military power
•Political stability•Political influence
in the region
Bargaining power:
•Water “numbers” and information available
•Power to influence agenda•Power to set what
can or cannot be negotiated•Power to claim legitimacy
(e.g. prior use)•Position concerning
international water law•Access to international funding
IdeationalPower:
•Power to influence knowledgeproduction and sharing
•Power to influence discourse•Available incentives to
influence neighbouring countries•Time factors (it can wait)
•Silence factors (it can be hidden)•Power to play with ambiguity
•Power to influence cooperation process and agenda
• At the end, we must be able to visualise Power Asymmetries between riparians, e.g.:
• In your basin, how asymmetric power relations are?• How determinant is power in the control, utilisation & allocation of water
resources in your basin?
EXERCISE 1: Assessing power relations in transboundary river basins
\ HYDROPOLITICS (I)
* What is Hydropolitics?
* Water is a political resource
* Transboundary ≠ Shared
* Power in transboundary basins matters!
HYDROPOLITICS (II):Water and Conflict
Lake Tiberias
Jordan
Syria
Israel
Wes
t Ban
k
WATER and CONFLICT
Armed Conflict
Shiva, 2002
Political/Diplomatic conflict
Social/Environmental Conflict
Where can we find hydropolitical conflicts?
Mega-dams
Privati-sation Pollutio
nOver-
exploitation
Over-exploitatio
n
Mega-dams
Privati-sation
Water conflict: the Jordan River Basin
Who gets what water, when, where and how?
• 5 riparians: Israel, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon and Palestine
• Unequal allocation and utilisation of water resources
Phillips 2007
Water conflict: Jordan River Basin
• Asymmetric power relations among riparians
• Several conflict events (militarised/armed)/Very limited cooperation
• Jordan Basin: Extreme case of water-related conflict
Interstate water conflict is rare
More conflictive More cooperative
Wolf at al 2003
Diplomatic, strong or mild verbal official hostility
Riparian A Riparian B
DON’TDON’T Agree in positions and needs Share data and information
Engage in negotiations Politically commit
Collaborate / Cooperate Have common projects
DODO Securitise water issues
Use national-based arguments Classify information Refuse concessions Delay negotitions
Use threats against neighbours
Riparian A Riparian B
Water Political/Diplomatic Conflict: most common situation
Deadlock
HYDROPOLITICS (II)
* Water can be a catalyst for conflict(s)
* Interstate (armed) water conflict is rare
* Political/Diplomatic water conflicts are common
Tomorrow: Hydropolitical cooperation
For tomorrow:How to overcome the deadlock?
Way forward?
Riparian A Riparian B