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Hydropolitics in the MENA Region
Ana Elisa CascãoKing’s College of LondonPresentation to TWM 2008 MENA2nd-3rd November 2008
2nd
No
vem
ber
STRUCTURE OF THE PRESENTATION
2nd November [13:00-14:30]
Introduction
+
1 - New research/knowledge on the linkages between water and politics
3rd November [08:30-10:00]
2 - Cases from the Middle East / North Africa region where international water law has been applied
+
3 - How to resolve conflicts and promote cooperation
EXERCISE 1: Assessing power relations in transboundary basins
EXERCISE 2: IWL and the Nile Basin case
EXERCISE 3: If I was a donor…
INTRODUCTIONMENA REGION: Transboundary water resources
SURFACE + GROUNDWATER
WATER RESOURCES
TRANSBOUNDARY
RIVERS,LAKES & AQUIFERS
MAPS
North Africa Transboundary River Basins
DRA BASINMoroccoAlgeria
DAOURA BASINMoroccoAlgeria
GUIR BASINAlgeria
Morocco
OUED BON BASIN
MoroccoAlgeria
MEDJERDA BASINTunisiaAlgeria
TAFNA BASINAlgeria
Morocco
NIGER BASIN
Algeria+10 riparians
LAKE CHAD BASIN
ChadAlgeria SudanLibya
+5 ripariansNILE BASIN
Egypt Sudan
Ethiopia+7 riparians
Middle East Transboundary River Basins
JORDAN BASIN
Jordan Israel Syria
West Bank Lebanon
TIGRIS-EUPHRATES BASIN
IraqTurkey
IranSyria
CORUHBASIN
Turkey Georgia
ASI/ORONTESBASIN
TurkeySyria
Lebanon
Wadi Al IzziyahBASIN
LebanonIsrael
An Nahr Al KabirBASIN
SyriaLebanon
Nahr Al KabirBASIN
SyriaTurkey
North Africa Transboundary Aquifers
Middle East Transboundary Aquifers
Several water bodies, but not much water quantity
Fundamentals• Complex hydrological systems• Limited water availability• Challenges in transboundary management:
– Politics/Power– Sovereignty– Conflicts (others)– Institutional and legal issues– Role of international law– Hydropolitical cooperation is complex
• Transboundary ≠ Shared
1 NEXUS WATER AND POLITICS
2 INTERNATIONAL WATER LAW
3 HYDROPOLITICAL COOPERATION
1 – Linkages Water Politics
• Water a multifaceted resource• Dependency and Interdependency• Linkage Water and Politics• Hydro-Hegemony• Bargaining and Ideational Powers• Securitisation Processes
EXERCISE 1: Assessing power relations in transboundary basins
WATER as a multifaceted resource
• Water is a natural, social, economic and cultural resource
• Water is a political resource as well!• Majority of water bodies in the world are
transboundary• Water is an important factor of political economy
Global Political Economy
Regional Political Economy
National Political Economies
TRANSBOUNDARY WATERS
Water – Dependency and Interdependency
Dependency on water resources originating
outside the country
Strong dependency Conflictive interdependency
Potential Conflict Cooperation Potential
World Bank, 2007
Sharing transboundary water resources
• Water is a political resource
• Power relations are a key element in transboundary water management, sharing and allocation
• Power relations are often asymmetric
Sovereignty
LawAllocation
Knowledge
Information
Development
Agriculture
Hydropower
RegimeConflict Cooperation
Virtual water
Economy
Benefits
see UNDP 2006
WATER AND POLITICS – Framework of Hydro-Hegemony
(Zeitoun and Warner 2006)
Oftenasymmetric
GeographyMaterial power
Bargaining power
Ideationalpower
4 PILLARS OF POWER
• Select a MENA transboundary basin and assess the four dimensions of power for each of the riparians
• Power dimensions to take into account:
• Classify it as Strong, Middle, or Weak for each riparian
EXERCISE 1: Assessing power relations in transboundary basins
Geography:•Riparian position
•Contribution to water availability in the Basin•Suitability for hydraulic
projects
Material Power:
•Economic development•Military power
•Political stability•Political influence
in the region
Bargaining power:
•Water “numbers” and information available
•Power to influence agenda•Power to set what
can or cannot be negotiated•Power to claim legitimacy
(e.g. prior use)•Position concerning
international water law•Access to international funding
IdeationalPower:
•Power to influence knowledgeproduction and sharing
•Power to influence discourse•Available incentives to
influence neighbouring countries•Time factors (it can wait)
•Silence factors (it can be hidden)•Power to play with ambiguity
•Power to influence cooperation process and agenda
• At the end, we must be able to visualise Power Asymmetries between different riparians, e.g.:
• How much asymmetric power relations are?• How influential is that in the management,
sharing and allocation in your particular basin?
EXERCISE 1: Assessing power relations in transboundary basins
RIPARIAN A RIPARIAN B RIPARIAN C
Geography
Geography
GeographyMaterial
power
Material power
Material power
Bargaining power
Bargaining power
Bargaining power
Ideationalpower
Ideationalpower
Ideationalpower
EGYPT (HH) SUDAN ETHIOPIA
Geography
Geography
GeographyMaterial
power
Material power
Material power
Bargaining power
Bargaining power
Bargaining power
Ideationalpower
Ideationalpower
Ideationalpower
Adapted from Zeitoun and Warner, 2006
TURKEY (HH)
Bargaining power
Ideationalpower
SYRIA
Geography
Material power
Bargaining power
Ideationalpower
IRAQ
GeographyMaterial
powerBargaining
powerIdeational
power
Nile Basin
Tigris-Euphrates Basin
GeographyMaterial
power
Some examples of HYDRO-HEGEMONY in the MENA region
BARGANING POWER -in interstate relations and negotiations
WHO CONTROLS THE NEGOTIATIONS?
WHO CONTROLS
THE AGREEMENTS?
WHO CONTROLS
THE NUMBERS?
WHO CONTROLS
THE AGENDA?
WHO CONTROLS THE
LEGITIMACY?
WHO PLAYS BETTER WITH
INTERNATIONAL LAW?
WHO HAS ACCESS TO
INVESTMENT?
IDEATIONAL POWER - Power to influence perceptions
Asymmetric Knowledge
SanctionedDiscourse
Incentives
Playingwith time
Silent
Co-option
Ambiguity
Diplomacy/Cooperation
POWER RELATIONS, CONFLICT & COOPERATION CO-EXIST
Wolf et al 2003
HydropoliticalPower Relations
are hidden
3 HYDROPOLITICAL COOPERATION
HydropoliticalPower Relations
must be unravelled
Cascão 2007
WATER SECURITISATION
• MENA region – water is a POLITICAL issue, but is as well a SECURITY issue
• Securitisation processes (Turton 2003, Phillips et al
2006)
Water elevated to
an issue of high politi
cs
Power asymmetrie
s = Hydropolitical a
symmetries
Water as a natio
nal security
issue
Difficultie
s on Institu
tional/le
gal developments & cooperatio
n
By the end of the 1st session, participants
should be aware :
* Existing transboundary water
resources in the MENA region
and* Linkages between
water, politics, power and security
Tomorrow morning – 2nd Session:
* International Water Law and the MENA regionand
* Conflict Resolution and Hydropolitical Cooperation in the region