Global Mega Trends and Norway

At the Norwegian Research Council office inauguration 18 Sept 2014. From left: Stein Tønnesson, Anne Lise Fimreite, Erik Wold, Terje Osmundsen, Karen Helene Ulltveit-Moe and Jesper Simonsen.

Prime Minister Erna Solberg

Celebrating the office move to Lysaker by the Oslo Fjord, the Norwegian Research Council held parallel sessions on topical issues and an inauguration reception. Events were part of the National Science Week.

In a keynote talk the Prime Minister assured of her government’s plans for increased investment in research and innovation.

Welcome by Jesper Simonsen

Jesper W. Simonsen, Executive Director of the Department of Society and Health at the Norwegian Research Council opened one of the parallel sessions: “Global Mega Trends and Norway”. Some 180 persons attended.

He said more research activities are moving to the global south and east. What does this and other global mega trends mean for Norway's economy, society and the need for knowledge? Mr. Simonsen asked

Moderator: Erik WoldModerator of the panel was Erik Wold, formerly at Norway's Broadcasting Corporation (NRK) - now head of www.kjordebatt.no. Mr. Wold congratulated the Norwegian Research Council on the new office. Here it is seen from the fjord.

Starting with the news- There are big questions on the agenda, Mr. Wold said. Having been a news reporter for more than 35 years, he said he could not resist mentioning that Norway's government announced this afternoon that it would send five officers to the US to join the planning of a war against the terrorist group ISIS.

Mr. Wold wished to take the opportunity to ask a renowned peace researcher on the panel, Dr. Stein Tønnesson, about his views on Norway participating in a war against ISIS. Dr. Tønnesson said Norway's armed forces have gained active combat experience from their international engagement in the years since the Cold War ended. In comparison, China's armed forces have not had combat experience since 1979, when it fought against Vietnam. This shows how the actions of a small country like Norway can shift and be a contrast to a big power like China.

Studying peace, finding cause for

concern Dr. Tønnesson said he was pessimistic about the future. It is pure luck that the third world war has not started, he said. He does research on Southeast Asia at Uppsala University in Sweden. Southeast Asia is a region that has focused on peace and stability since 1979. However, new leaders in the region now have different priorities.

There is a tendency to undermine the peaceful trends that he is studying. - If we have a third world war, it will start in Southeast Asia, Dr. Tønnesson said.

Fast shift to green energy

 Dr. Karen Helene Ulltveit-Moe is Professor of Economics at the University of Oslo. She said an important trend is that things move faster than before. An economic shift toward Asia is clear. The European solar energy industry, for instance, has been pushed out of the market by Chinese producers.  Dr. Terje Osmundsen is Senior Vice President at Scatec Solar. Not wanting to draw any conclusions on how fast or slowly things move, he said let us describe what happens and each of us can make up our mind. The green shift goes much faster than any of the predictions and analyses you have on your desks today. Even in the US with low natural gas prices, sun and wind energy is cheaper. Countries now see that there are many problems related to fossil energy sources. Renewable energy stands out as more viable, Dr. Osmundsen said.

Energy going localDecentralized energy production is happening, and this is intentional and smart, according to Dr. Osmundsen. The development is toward local energy solutions. More and more buildings are self supplied with one type of energy or another. He is optimistic about the future, he said. Investors have started worrying about the carbon bubble. The price of oil & gas production has increased enormously, while renewables are cheaper. The security aspect is also important. It is a risk for a country to rely on imported fuel.

- When the company Musk says it is building a gigawatt battery industry it sends a strong signal, Dr. Osmundsen said. Info on Musk.

Dr. Ulltveit-Moe asked: Does anyone believe we will reach the 2 degree target?

Dr. Osmundsen replied that this can be much cheaper than we think, due to price reductions of renewable energy.

Climate refugees and aging population

Dr. Ulltveit-Moe warned about dire consequences the world is facing due to global warming. She said all parts of the world will either experience or be affected by climate refugees.  Dr. Anne Lise Fimreite is Pro-Rector at the University of Bergen and Researcher at the Rokkan Centre. She brought up an issue which she said moves slowly - the aging of the population. In the welfare sector this is a big challenge. The population pyramid looks entirely different from what we are used to. Growing need for health care of the many new centenarians, for example, and adaptation of the labor market to people's long lives etc. are linked to this.

- How can comparatively few employed people finance the pensions of the elderly who may live 30-40 years after retirement? Dr. Fimreite asked. - We have not fully grasped this as a society. - Pension commitments in Norway and globally are massive and very expensive to follow through, she added.

Research to the rescue- What can researchers do? Mr. Wold asked. Dr. Fimreite recommended researchers to make points clear and be innovative. Technology may for instance help people live at home longer. Some of the new technology may however also be used for surveillance, and this is worrying, Dr. Fimreite added.

Dr. Tønnesson said the population explosion that was debated and feared in earlier decades, has now taken on a very different shape. People live much longer and the world's women on average have under two children. Better policies are necessary to help societies face the steep increase in the number of elderly persons. Research & innovation can help.

- Technology for today's seniors needs to be adapted to their skills and needs, without a focus on speed, he said.

Balancing national and global needs

Dr. Ulltveit-Moe said there is indeed a need to understand and act on the information we have about aging populations.

- Will the economic global issues be sensibly handled by politicians in the future? Dr. Osmundsen asked. Can we expect to see sustainable and inclusive policies? Sweden's parliamentary election results this week show that there is resistance. Dr. Fimreite said she expects there will be a clash between global needs and Norway's privileged situation. Recent events involving Russia show how conflicts may move closer at any time. Dr. Tønnesson said we must hope to include Russia in the global economy again.

Coal up or down?- Is there not an increase in the use of coal as fuel? Dr. Tønnesson asked Dr. Osmundsen.

Dr. Osmundsen replied that coal use is on its way down this year. China is putting in demands regarding its coal use. China may reach the top of its coal use in two-three years and then it is expected to flatten out.

He said it is an interesting signal that Chile now prices CO2. Yesterday Chile's parliament adopted a CO2 fee. Investors in the market will see possibilities and push coal producers to reduce operations. This will not happen overnight, but I believe we can avert a climate catastrophe, Dr. Osmundsen said.

Do youth see a bright future? Via innovation?

Dr. Ulltveit-Moe said these are very difficult matters and she is not as optimistic as Dr. Osmundsen. Speaking about the youth today, she said demographic changes and climate challenges should bring scores of young people out in the streets in daily protests. In the 1960s and 70s there were many more protests, yet the challenges we face today are very alarming. In Dr. Osmundsen's view there is great potential in the Norwegian private sector to develop more smart solutions and gadgets that could find a global market. Due to its silicon resource Norway was leading on solar energy earlier. There are now thousands of products and innovation by small actors in this field globally.

Research in high demand

Mr. Wold asked what type of research is needed to solve the issues the world is facing? Is more basic research something you would recommend? Dr. Fimreite said she wishes to see more interdisciplinary climate research. She noted that there is much cross-fertilization between subject areas, with petroleum and medicine being an example of this. We know of many areas where we need basic research, she added. Research closely linked to professional/business needs is in high demand. Such research could help find solutions to the issues sparked by an aging population.

Dr. Ulltveit-Moe said basic research must help us deal with structural changes that we meet in the economy. Issues and findings we believed were irrelevant before may find new use today.

More international partnerships needed

- How important is Norwegian research to other countries? Mr. Wold asked.

Dr. Tønnesson said in some areas we make a solid contribution. However we should spend less money on EU research because it's bureaucratic and cumbersome. Norway should finance more research than it does today, and in addition finance Norwegian researchers' cooperation with partners abroad. The cooperation that the Norwegian Research Council has with for instance China is excellent, he said.

Dr. Ulltveit-Moe said all research that facilitates international cooperation is good. She agrees that Norway should finance research with other countries, although this may not be easy to achieve politically.

Demonstrate research, cultivate talents

Dr. Osmundsen said Norway is an interesting test market, e.g. for electrical cars. To succeed in finding and using good solutions we need more demonstration of research - not least in the climate areas. Testing is necessary. Norway could contribute such an initiative to COP 21/the 2015 Paris climate meeting.

Dr. Fimreite reminded of Norway's successes in sports and urged universities and research communities to cultivate young research talent and be more proactive.

China explores sea “grabbing”

Mr. Wold asked: Is Norway being marginalized?

Yes, Dr. Tønnesson said, adding that Norway was closer to the center of the world when it was in Europe. The arctic areas are receiving attention in China. Also, the work Norway did on the law of the sea has been noticed in Asia. He had bought a book in Vietnam, in Vietnamese, on the law of the sea. An illustration in one of the first pages was from Norway, showing the maritime borders.

China seeks to gain control of sea areas it has no right to and is considering leaving the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. If China breaks out it is a problem. This needs to be monitored, Dr. Tønnesson said.

Global action for health

Are there any research areas we could tone down? Mr. Wold asked.

The panelists did not suggest any areas that need less attention. On the contrary, research and knowledge was more needed than ever.

Dr. Ulltveit-Moe said global health is a mega trend in research. She serves as Commissioner of Global Health 2035, an initiative supported by, among others, The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and the Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation (Norad).

Tackling epidemics- We have major health threats such as Ebola and multi-resistant tuberculosis, Dr. Ulltveit-Moe said.- Such concerns bring us closer to each other and helps mobilize resources for the fight. Sadly, the World Health Organization (WHO) has a tiny budget, she said.

- Ironically, the obesity epidemic is as lethal as hunger, she said. Physical activity is key for children, youth and adults. Many of the illnesses of the elderly may be prevented by eating healthy and being active. Better results in this area will greatly reduce health care expenses.

Knowledge sharingDr. Osmundsen said Norwegians may choose now, whether to take its welfare gains out in more free time, or support nation building in other countries. He said he believes Norway should contribute internationally, and that it has learned many lessons that are worth sharing. As an example, there was an obesity problem among Scatec Solar employees in South Africa. The company made sugary drinks and sweets unavailable in the office. We should not underestimate Norway´s possibility to make a difference via knowledge sharing with partners abroad, Dr. Osmundsen said.

Innovation and trustIn closing, as no questions were received from the audience, Mr. Wold asked the speakers if they had any final remarks about change that needs to happen. Dr. Tønnesson asked researchers to embrace innovation and stop using old-fashioned footnotes in articles and books, as a simple web link will do.  Dr. Fimreite stressed the continued need for trust in society. - Trust is the glue that keeps us together, she said. She worried that increased surveillance may impel a society to terrorize itself via too much meddling into the private sphere.

Researchers: Join the debate!

- Many talented researchers in Norway are not participating in public debate, Dr. Osmundsen said. - There is too much focus and reward for traditional peer-reviewed publishing where a piece may be read by only a dozen people. He called for firm demands that all researchers not only publish, but engage in blogging and media discussions as well. Dr. Ulltveit-Moe said she worries about the future. Even though globalization is making the world seem smaller, we may head in the opposite direction. Confrontation and isolation appear to be on the increase, as demonstrated in the Middle East. Openness to trade and cooperation is changing because people believe it does not benefit them. We need to understand what is happening around us, she concluded.

Mr. Wold urged participants to take some optimism with them as well, and thanked the speakers for their contributions.

Port by Norwegian Research Council at

Lysaker, Oslo

Summary by Gry Tina Tinde, Section for Research, Innovation and Higher Education, Norad