Methods for Educational Futures Research

5.7.02010Richard SandfordLSRI, Nottingham UK

Outline

• Why methods?• Summary of common techniques• Alternative methodological frameworks• Educational research perspective

Perrotta, Hague & Williamson (2010) “Maintaining Futures Expertise”

http://www.futurelab.org.uk/resources/documents/project_reports/Maintaining_Futures_Expertise_Report.pdf

Backcasting environment scanning forecasting scenarios trend analysis

causal layered analysis metascanning cross-impact matrices time capsules

futures wheel time lines MICMAC morphological analysis horizon scanning

futures triangle weak signals systems dynamics causal loop diagrams DELPHI visualisation 7 questions 5th scenario econometrics wargaming modelling

Why methods?

• Enable confidence in claims about future states

• Enable comparisons within futures work & establish common professional standards

• Transparency, legitimacy, trust

Why not methods?

• “Tool trap” (Graham Leicester, IFF)— Using futures techniques to avoid hard questions— “People want the tool, not the struggle”

(BCH/MFE)• Can be misapplied

— Spurious credibility & legitimacy• FS fundamentally interdisciplinary – no one

set of ‘approved’ methods

Futures as a process

• Futures work not a single event• Different techniques appropriate at different

stages• Ideally a continuous cycle

— Often limited by real-world constraints

Foresight UK

http://www.foresight.gov.uk/microsites/hsctoolkit/

Foresight UK

RAHS (Singapore)Defining focus

Environmental scanning

Sense making

Developing possible futures

Designing strategies

Monitoring

Hines & Bishop (2007)

• Framing• Scanning• Forecasting• Visioning• Planning• Acting

Top-level process

• General framework• Not definitive – enabling loose groupings of

different methods to support today’s discussion

• Looking at different ways of organising methods later on

Top-level process

• Finding a question• Learning about the world• Describing the present world• Constructing futures• Responding to futures narratives

Finding a question

• Stakeholder analysis• Issue analysis• Futures wheel

Learning about the world

• Weak signals• Horizon scanning

— Shaping Tomorrow, Sigma scan• Trend extrapolation• Gathering opinions + beliefs about possible

futures— DELPHI, 7 questions— ‘crowdsourcing’, sentiment analysis

Describing the present world

• Systems dynamics• Causal loop diagrams• Morphological analysis• Driver analysis• Modelling• Gaming

Causal loop diagrams

http://blog.iseesystems.com/stella-ithink/limits-to-growth/

Causal loop diagrams

http://www.foresight.gov.uk/OurWork/ActiveProjects/Obesity/Obesity.asp

Morphological analysis

Constructing futures

• Scenarios— Multiple methods: different purposes— Instances of outputs from models— 2 x 2 grid— Causal layered analysis

• Timelines— Connecting present to future

Responding to futures narratives

• 5th scenario• Backcasting• Visioning• Windtunnelling• Roadmaps

The unexpected

• “Black swans” (Taleb) — unpredictability of high-impact events

• “Dragon kings” (Sornette) — statistical outliers indicative of major system

change• Discontinuties, wild cards, shocks

— “unknown unknowns”• Tipping points, phase transitions

— “social analogues” (Sornette)

The unexpected

• Hard to reflect in scenario-based approaches• Not detectable through trend extrapolation• Emergent products of complexity• Unlikely? Or unpalatable?

Sorting methodological approaches

Who’s doing it?

• Governments & agencies— STEEP/STEM, persuasion

• Private companies— Technologists, planners, designers

• Activists• Academics

How long does it take?

• 3 years? 3 hours?• Different methods require lengths of time• Engagement time & preparation time different• Dependencies on other methods & research• Supports an open-ended and continuous

process?• Or moves towards a final destination?

FS traditions

• Empirical/analytic— “data-driven, positivistic, often corporate”/RAND

• Critical/comparative— Perhaps closest to education research?

• Activist/participatory— Links with women’s, peace & environmental groups

• Multicultural/global(Slaughter, Futures Beyond Dystopia ch. 3)

6 concepts 6 pillars

• Used futures• Disowned futures• Alternative futures• Alignment• Models of social change• Uses of the future

Inayatullah (2008)

• Mapping• Anticipation• Timing• Deepening• Creating alternatives• Transforming

Other categorisations

Masini (1999)• Descriptive• Normative• Objective• Subjective• Systemic

Slaughter (1999)• Input methods• Analytic methods• Paradigmatic methods• Iterative & exploratory

methods

Gordon (1992)• Exploratory• Normative

Activities that...

• Address facts about the world

— Empirical, data-based

• Address beliefs about the world

— Social sci techniques

• Encourage conversation and dialogue

— Workshop approaches

• Describe relations between things

— Systems thinking

• Speak to the heart & imagination

— Time capsules, visualisation

• Value human existence & experience

— Ethnographic & participatory

Education research & futures

• Already encountered, and addressed, many epistemic and methodological difficulties FS beginning to recognise

• Already able to differentiate appropriate & valid methods – same criteria as other academic domains

No best answers

• Multiple perspectives and traditions within FS and broader futures work

• Multiple perspectives and traditions within education research as well

• Not appropriate to prescribe some methods over others

• So how to choose for a particular project?

Matching scope

• What’s the unit of analysis?— Nation state, organisation, individual?

• Where does the influence of a technique or methodological perspective start and finish?— End with policymakers? Only concerned with

canvassing beliefs?• What tasks is it designed to accomplish?

— Generating or communicating futures?

Matching worldviews

• How does a particular technique assume change happens in the world?

• What models of cause and effect are in play?— ‘trends’ colliding & interacting sits uneasily with

some social science perspectives— ‘levers of change’ can seem simplistic

• Who are the actors in the futures generated?

Matching values

• How does a particular technique talk about people?

• Is it concerned with meeting the same ends? Does it help education meet ethical responsibility to promote action?

• Does it give any role to the people affected by the futures it contributes to?

Possible challenges

• Links between FS and education research clear• Hard to sign up to the sort of social

interventions FS can ask for• Perceived danger of sounding naive• Education research practice situated within

the contexts that FS aims to challenge

Other fields

• Many other academic & professional disciplines with a temporal orientation

• Many other domains concerned with changing behaviour

• FS & education research both used to looking to other disciplines

• Geography, architecture, design, medicine...

Psychiatry

• Increasing attention given to mental health challenges raised by negative futures — living in them and thinking about them

• “Solastalgia” – Glenn Albrecht— Homesickness while in a (changed) home

• Notions of ‘resilience’ more prominent— “Resilience in Social-Ecological Systems: The Role

of Learning and Education” Krasny et al. (Dec 10)— C4 Education ‘Super Me’

Religion

• Existing cultural languages of deep time and consequence

• Useful as provocation or alternative view in supporting futures conversation

• Reaffirming (e.g. Inayatullah)’s insistence on recognising global diversity of worldviews

Fundamental question

• Does your chosen approach reaffirm the status quo?

• Or does it lead to questions you find uncomfortable?

Thank you

richard.sandford@futurelab.org.uk