Final senior design presentation(SIUE)

DESIGN OF A MOTORCYCLE DYNAMOMETER MANUFACTURING ENTERPRISE

SENIOR DESIGN 2012

Presented By: Erica Miller, Eray Ozturk, Paul Jansen, and Jared Schneider

SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING04/10/20232

INTRODUCTION

What is a dynamometer? Problem statement

Cost prevents many shops from investing in the tool

ME conceptual design Objective:

To convert a single prototype design to a marketable product and production strategy suitable for large scale manufacturing


PROJECT MANAGEMENT

Team Leader: Erica Miller

Enterprise: Eray Ozturk*Serra AkyolEmre UlugolSelin Kanli

Design: Paul Jansen*

Furkan EndererRyan Alberter

Production:Jared

Schneider*Burcu DemirMiray Kaya


OUTLINE

Market Research Forecasting Production Redesign Personnel Requirements Facility Design Quality Cost Analysis Conclusions


MARKET RESEARCH & FORECASTING Market Research

Existing Brands▪ DynoJet▪ Mustang▪ Land and Sea

Market Forecast Market Share Forecasting the Demand


MARKET ANALYSIS

Customer: Motorcycle Mechanics Surveys Influencing factors on number of mechanics

▪ Number of repair facilities▪ Number of bike shops▪ World Price of Crude Oil▪ Per Capita Disposable Income


FORECASTING THE FUTURE OF MARKETHeuristic Approach – Non-Linear

Correlation analysis of influencing factors using Pearson Product MethodDetermination of weights by minimizing errorUsed forecast values by professionals

20002002200420062008201020122014201620185000

5500

6000

6500

7000

7500

8000

7061

7158

7176 7373

7534 7700

Facilities which Employee Motorcycle Mechanics: Potential Dynomometer Customers

Actual DemandForecasted DemandConnection

Year

Num

ber

of

Pote

nti

al D

ynom

om

ete

r C

ust

om

ers

Source: IBIS World Industry Report


DETERMINING THE MARKET SHARE Market Share Indices for initial demand

Sale

s

an

d

Mark

eti

ng

Aware 30%

Attractive55%

Price OK90%

Available100%

Purchase75%

Not Purchase

25%Not Available

0%High Price10%Not

Attractive45%Not Aware

70%

Yes13%

Possibly27%

No60%

Would You Purchase a Dynamometer?


MARKET SHAREPreliminary Data Source Pessimisti

cNeutral Optimisti

cDefinitely will buy Customer Survey 13% 13% 13%

Probably will buy Customer Survey 13% 27% 27%

Likely buyers

Buyers form definites

= Definitely buy *

80.00%

10.67% 10.67% 10.67%

Buyers form probables

= Probably buy *

30.00%

4.00% 8.00% 8.00%

Trial Rate Total of likely Buyers 14.67% 18.67% 18.67%

Marketing Adjustments

Market Share Index (MSI)

Estimated from Marketing Plan 7.50% 11.14% 13.16%

Adjusted Trial Rate = Trial Rate*MSI 1.10% 2.08% 2.46%

2012 Target Population

Marketing Plan Data 7158 7158 7158

Trial Population

=Target Pop*Adjusted Trial Rate 79 149 176


PRODUCTION LEVELS Normal distribution and influencing factors

Start-up / S-Curve Adjusted yearly

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20170

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

79 81 94128

175149 153

177

242

330

176 180

210

286

390

Production Level

Optimistic Neutral Pessimistic

Num

ber

of

Dynos


PRODUCTION REDESIGN

Inertia Dynamometer 4 Major Components

Drum Assembly Frame Assembly Front Wheel Plate Loading Ramp

209 individual parts, 1532 pounds


DRUM ASSEMBLY

Reduce cost Maintain mass moment of inertia Lead vs Water A500 structural casing AISI 4340 mount shafts


DRUM VIBRATION

Minimal vibration Worst case scenario calculation

Steel pipe has bend in center Offset center of mass creates vibration Absolute worst case

2500 RPM Drum Speed 1,759 lbf due to normal acceleration ≈ 1,400 lbf dynamic load on each bearing


DRUM BEARING SELECTION

Tire Speed (MPH) vs Drum RPMSize Tire Speed Rating MPH Limit Tire OD (inch) Tire RPM at Limit500S16 S 112 26.4 1426MT90H16 H 130 25.3 1727130/90H16 H 130 25.4 1720130/90H16 H 130 25.6 1707140/90H16 H 130 25.6 1707140/90H16 H 130 25.8 1694160/80H16 H 130 26.1 1674160/80H16 H 130 26.1 1674120/90H16 H 130 26.3 1662120/80V16 V 150 23.8 2118140/80VB16 V 150 24.8 2033130/90V16 V 150 25 2017150/80V16 V 150 25.4 1985130/70VB18 V 150 25.4 1985140/70V18 V 150 25.7 1962200/60VB16 V 150 25.9 1947120/80V18 V 150 25.9 1947170/60VB18 V 150 26 1939150/70VB18 V 150 26.2 1924130/80V18 V 150 26.3 1917180/55VB18 V 150 26.3 1917120/90V18 V 150 26.4 1910

Motorcycle tire max speed ratings

Converted to drum RPM

Sized bearing above max RPM

Life ≈100,000 hrs


FRAME ASSEMBLY

Square steel tubing 1x1x0.065 inch 2x2x0.125 inch

Optimized cutting layouts 1D Cut Optimizer – Nikita Yurchenko

Welded and annealed


DRUM MOUNTING

Anti-vibration mounts Mount shaft press fit Bearing attachment

SAE Grade 5 nuts/bolts Electronics mount

Sandwiched between anti-vibe and bottom of bearing


OTHER FEATURES

Electronics Programmable System on Chip (PSoC) Rotary Encoder Direct Serial connection to PC (RS232 protocol)

Ramp Assembly Ease load/unload of motorcycles Basic construction

D-Link strap points Secure motorcycle while running test


MAKE VS. BUY

Material/ComponentUnits/dyno Units

1x1x0.0625 Square Steel Tube* 1680 INCH18x0.375 Steel Pipe* 1 FEETLead* 986 LB1/2" x 72" X 144" HR Plate - ASTM A-36 Steel* 324 IN22x2x0.25 Square Steel Tube* 140.8 INFloor Plate - 1/8" x 48"X144“* 6384 IN22x2x0.125 Steel Angle Iron* 4 FTAISI 4340 Steel - HR Q & T Rounds* 9.64 INBlack HDPE Sheet* 1.67 SHEETSMaterial/Component Units/dyno Units

7/16"-20 x 7/8" Black Oxide Alloy Steel Socket Cap Screw 12 PARTS5/8"-11 x 5" Plain Finish SAE J429 Grade 8 Hex Cap Screw 4 PARTS5/8"-11 Yellow Zinc Finish Grade 8 Finished Hex Nut 4 PARTSBlind Rivets 1/8" Dia.—For Hole Size: 0.129"-0.133" 100 PARTSUS Digital E2 Rotary Encoder 1 PARTPSoC 1 PARTVibration Isolation 4 PARTSHammerite 43180 Red Hammered Metal Finish Size Quart 1 PARTS1" D-Ring Tie down with mounting bracket 6 PARTS1/2"x1" Plain Finish Clevis Pin 4 PARTSZinc Hitch Pin Clip (for 1/2"-5/8" Shaft) 4 PARTSAntivibration Foot Mounts (Part No. - V41C01M10012X075) 10 PARTSTimken Type E Tapered Roller Bearing E-P2B-TRB-65MM 2 PARTS

MA

KE

BU

Y


PROCESSING

Fin

al

Assem

bly

Frame Assembly (Welding)

Drilling Chop Saw

1x1 Square Steel Tube

Chop Saw


Chop Saw


Drum Assembly (Welding)

Drilling Machining Bandsaw AISI 4340 Steel

HR Q&T Rounds

Tapping Drilling Plasma Cut

1/2" x 72" HR Plate - ASTM A-

36 SteelPlasma

Cut18 x 0.375 Steel

Pipe

Casting Melting Lead

Ramp Assembly (Welding)

Chop Saw

1x1 Square Steel

Plasma Cut

Floor Plate - 1/8" x 48"X144"

Front Wheel Lock

AssemblyDrilling Chop

Saw2x2x0.125 Steel

Angle Iron

Front Wheel Plate

Assembly (Welding)

Plasma Cut


Chop Saw


Side Walls Table Saw

Black HDPE Sheet

Deck Surface Plasma Cut



MACHINERY SELECTIONS

Basic metal fabrication Chop saw Plasma cutter Welder Annealing torch Drill press

NC machining High precision needed for drum mount shaft

▪ Press fit into bearings Machine size calculations

SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING

PERSONNEL REQUIREMENTS Office Workers

• Manufacturing Engineer• Secretary• Sales Representative• Contract Programmer

Laborers Material Handlers Skilled Workers

04/10/202321


AGGREGATE PLANNING

24.7 labor hours required per dyno One 8 hour shift – 250 days/year Optimal worker quantities for production rate,

wages, and hiring/firing costs

04/10/202322

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

02468

10

Number of Laborers

Material HandlersSkilled Workers


INVENTORY CONTROL

Economic Order Quantity

Optimal order quantityD Annual demand quantityS Fixed cost per order H Annual holding cost per unit

Warehousing space for 31 Dyno’s worth of raw material

04/10/202323

2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

21 21 2226

31

EOQ for Dyno Inventory


MATERIAL HANDLING AND WAREHOUSING

04/10/202324

Material Handling Decisions Cherry Picker vs. Gantry

Crane Roller Dolly Pallet Truck

Racking Three Main Types of

Materialo Steel Pipe (Drum)o Square Tubingo Sheet Metal


RELATIONSHIP DIAGRAM

Systematic Layout Planning Approach (SLP)I. From-To Matrix

04/10/202325

Chop Saw

Drilling

Melting Lathe

Plsma Cut

Bandsaw

Casting

Drum Assy

FWP Assy

Ramp Assy

Frame Assy

Final Assy

Qlty Cntrl Paint

Chop Saw

6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 44 0 0 0

Drilling 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 2 0 0Melting 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Lathe 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Plsma Cut

0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0

Bandsaw

0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Casting 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0Drum Assy

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0

FWP Assy

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0

Ramp Assy

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0

Frame Assy

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0

Final Assy

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1

Qlty Cntrl

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Paint 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1


Facility Layout

II. Weighted From-To MatrixIII. Relationship DiagramIV. Activity Relationship Diagram

04/10/202326

Symbol Definition Score

A Absolutely Necessary

46 to 60

E Especially Important

31 to 45

I Important 16 to 30O Ordinary 1 to 15U Unimportant 0X Undesirable -


FACILITY LAYOUT

V. Department Sizing• Machine/Table Space and Workspace

5,100 ft2

04/10/202327


FACILITY LOCATION

Geographic midpoint of customers 6 possible counties in KS, MO, OK Hybrid approach to account for

1245 North Santa Fe, Wichita, Kansas

Wichita, KS

Tax rate Right to Work Minimum Wage

Unemployment rate Energy Prices Land Value


QUALITY

Drum and Lead Casting• Clearance of 0.050 in

Weight of Drum Straightness of Frame

Straight edge and feeler gauge Horsepower and Torque Curves

• Use electric motor to run tests• Calibrate

04/10/202329


PACKAGING AND SHIPPING Packaging Material

• Extended Pallets• Shrink Wrap• Plastic Bands

Shipping

04/10/202330

Option Carrier Estimated Transit

Cost

Longest Distance

YRC Freight 4 business days

$668

Shortest Distance

Lakeville Motor Express

1 business days

$177Source: www.freightquote.com


COSTS & PRICING

Malstrom’s Estimates Selling Price

Survey & Competitors▪ $6,500▪ 41% Markup▪ $5,000 less expensive

than closest competitor

Start-Up Cost (Equipment)Machinery $

56,685.47 Supplemental Items $

24,569.00 Material Handling $

4,239.90 Warehousing $

1,763.64 Total Start-Up Cost $

87,258.01

Fixed Cost Building Rent $

22,488.00 Management Salaries

$ 171,150.00

Total Fixed Cost $ 193,638.00

Variable CostMaterials $3,279.00 Mechanical Labor $395.00 Material Handling Labor

$110.00

Packaging $99.00 Shipping $375.00 Total Variable Cost/Dyno

$4,258.00


BREAKEVEN ANALYSIS

Demand taken constant after 2016 Optimistic: 482 Units – July 2014 Neutral: 655 Units– August 2015 Pessimistic: In year 2030

1 129 257 385 513 641 769 897 102511531281140915371665 $-

$2,000,000.00

$4,000,000.00

$6,000,000.00

$8,000,000.00

$10,000,000.00

$12,000,000.00 Break-Even Analysis for Neutral Scenario

Cost

Income

Quantity

Dollars

655


CASH FLOW & RATE OF RETURN

Rate Of Return (Depreciation MACRS & Inflation)

Scenario 2012 2013 2014 2015 201

6 2017 2018

Neutral -73% -11% 40% 132% 288% 430% 578% Optimistic -116% -59% -19% 54% 180% 292% 407%Pessimistic -227% -185% -172% -148% -101% -67% -37%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

$990,775.50 $1,041,790.46

$1,231,723.16

$1,722,784.05

$2,403,283.75

$2,456,155.99

$2,510,191.43

$(1,103,042.6

4)

$(1,040,675.7

1)

$(1,191,415.4

6)

$(1,573,243.86)

$(2,100,753.5

8)

$(2,146,970.1

6)

$(2,194,203.5

1)

Cash Flow in Neutral ScenarioAdjusted by Inflation Rates

Income Cost


CONCLUSIONS

Decision Analysis Net Present Values over next 6 years

EMV = $687,600 CougarDyno has potential to succeed

Establish new market share Production redesign Efficient facility

Optimistic Neutral Pessimistic $1,345,600 $875,600 -$346,500


THANK YOU!

Questions?


EXTRA SLIDES


INTERVIEW QUESTIONSStore Location

Would you be willing to invest in a

dynomometerDo you need a dyno?

Why would like to get one?

What could be the most important attributes for

a dynamometer needed?

Why have not you bought one before?

How much would you like to pay for the dynamometer?

Is portability important feature for

you?Other features to include

Action Powersports

817 West Union Avenue, Litchfield, IL Possibly yes maybecooling something

rather?expensive, not enough room

not sure, cheaper than whats on market

yes, have a small shop cooling feature

Chesterfield Valley Power Sports

17501 N Outer 40, Chesterfield, MO possibly yes tuning good software, expensive, not a

demand6-7 k yes atv/motorcycle

Southern Illinois Choppers & Power Sports

304 North Van Buren Street, New Athens, IL yes yes tuning

doesn't matter what type - inertia etc, ease of use, software can be

complicated, does it come with software

price less than 10,000not really, wants to just put it in his shop

warranty, updates, memberships

Lincoln Power Sports

100 Raceway Park Drive, Moscow Mills, MO yes surefuel to air ratio, bragging rights

accuracy, cost not sure,

oh yeah, definitely, they would have to

build a room to house it and an exhaust

system

have g sensor can mount on there, can hook up things to the

bike now

PMC Super Tuners Inc.

174 Kings Drive, Florissant, MO no portability would help,

especially racingn/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

Knebel's Autobody Center & Towing

2702 Il l inois 160, Highland, IL possibly if it was cheap enough n/a Portability not an issuemainly do

automotive repairsdoesn't know no n/a

Ritter Cycle Racing 11202 Ellis Road, St. Jacob, IL possibly possibly n/a portability not an issueif it was not

electric and a water brake dyno

n/a n/a n/a

Donelson Cycles Inc

9851 Saint Charles Rock Road, St Ann, MO no no n/a portability not an issuenot into

performancen/a n/a n/a

Royalty Racing 920 Dock Street, Saint Louis, MO no no n/a portability not an issue n/a n/a n/a

Black Diamond Williamson County Pkwy, Marion, Il l inois 62959 no no n/a portability not an issuethe demand is

declining, people are afraid

n/a n/a n/a

Bier Brothers 1921 East Terra Lane O'Fallon, MO 63366 no no n/a portability not an issueThey don't have,

it's too expensive, they don't need

n/a n/a n/a

JMP Cycle 1490 E Edwardsville Rd, Wood River, IL no no n/a portability not an issue n/a n/a n/a n/a

AMT Fergonson 715 South Florissant Road, Ferguson, MO 63135-2949 no no n/a portability not an issue n/a n/a n/a n/a

Matt Johnson St. Johns

3326 Woodson Road, Saint Louis, MO no no n/a portability not an issue n/a n/a n/a n/a

West County Power Sports

956 S Highway Dr, Fenton, MO no no n/a portability not an issue n/a n/a n/a n/a


MARKET SHARE INDEX

Preliminary Data Source Pessimistic

Neutral Optimistic

Definitely will buy Customer Survey 13% 13% 13%Probably will buy Customer Survey 13% 27% 27%Likely buyersBuyers form definites = Definitely

buy *80.00

%10.67% 10.67% 10.67%

Buyers form probables

= Probably buy *

30.00%

4.00% 8.00% 8.00%

Trial Rate Total of likely Buyers 14.67% 18.67% 18.67%Marketing Adjustments

Market Share Index (MSI)

Estimated from Marketing Plan 7.50%

11.14%

13.16%

Adjusted Trial Rate = Trial Rate*MSI 1.10% 2.08% 2.46%2012 Target Population

Marketing Plan Data 7158 7158 7158

Trial Population =Target Pop*Adjusted Trial Rate

79 149 176


MARKET PENETRATION

Scenario

Pessimistic Neutral Optimistic

Year

Cum Market

Penetration

Production

Level

Cum Market

Penetration

Production

Level

Cum Market

Penetration

Production

Level

2012 1.10% 79 2.08%149

2.46%176

2013 2.23% 81 4.19%152

4.96%180

2014 3.44% 94 6.49%177

7.67%210

2015 5.07%128

9.56%242

11.30%286

2016 7.24%175

13.64%330

16.12%390


AGGREGATE PLANNING

Units for Regular

Workforce Units with OTWorkers

Starting Quantity

Ending Quantity

Starting Quantity

Ending Quantity

1 1 64 65 662 67 129 130 130

3 131 194 195 1954 196 259 260 2605 261 323 324 3256 326 388 389 3907 391 453 454 454

Education

Final senior design presentation(SIUE)