Equity research mb_271011_vn

• 1. aNGN HNG THNG MI C PHN QUN I (MB) BankingTeam Nguyn Quang HuyEmail: huy.nguyenquang@tls.vn V Phng HnhEmail: hanh.vuphuong@tls.vnTrn Th Thanh ThoEmail: thao.tranthithanh@tls.vn kin phn tch: Gi mc tiu: 16,800 VNDCH S TI CHNH (T VND) 2,010 TTS2011F2012F109,623125,203147,942VCSH8,88213,48015,427NII3,5194,7345,167LNST1,7701,9392,449EPS2,3911,9392,129PE7.106.697.50PB1.151.07T l n xu1.35%1.90%1.70%LDR74.2%74.8%72.9%Cho vay/ TTS44.5%46.8%45.5%TS sinh li/TTS Tng trng huy ng KH90.1%91.1%91.6%64.4%19.0%18.0%Tng trng TD64.9%20.0%15.0%NIM4.30%4.45%4.14%ROAA1.95%1.65%1.79%ROEA22.1%17.3%15.9%15%15%C tc TM (%)11.18Ngn hng TMCP Qun i l mt trong nhng ngn hng TMCP pht trin nhanh v hiu qu ln nht trong h thng cc ngn hng ti Vit Nam, th hin cc ch tiu tng trng cng nh cc ch tiu v li nhun ROAA, ROAE. MB c k hoch nim yt c phiu v tng VL ln 10,000 t ng trong nm 2011, EPS theo chng ti d phng trong nm 2011 mc thn trng l 2,660 VND (trn VL u nm). Chng ti d kin gi mc tiu ca c phiu MB sau khi nim yt s mc 16,800VND/CP v sau khi tng VL s mc khong 15,500 VND/CP. M T DOANH NGHIP Ngn hng thng mi c phn Qun i thnh lp nm 1994, v hin l mt trong nhng ngn hng ng u trong nhm ngn hng TMCP. Vn iu l tnh n cui nm 2010 l 7,300 t VND, tng 37.7% so vi 2009. Tng thu nhp hot ng nm 2010 ngn hng t 4,088 t VND, tng 54% so vi nm 2009. Thu nhp li thun l 3,519 t VND (tng 91.5%), thu nhp rng hot ng dch v 588.84 t VND (tng 54.7%). Tng ti sn ca ngn hng tnh n 2010 t 109,623 t VND, tng 58.8% so vi 2009. D n tn dng v huy ng 2010 t 48,797 t VND v 65,741 t VND, tng ng chim th phn 2.5% v tn dng v 3.3% th phn huy ng.CP NHT Kt qu hot ng trong 1H2011 kh quan: Tng trng d n hp nht ca MB t khong 10.9%, tng trng huy ng hp nht ca khchhng t 10.6%, t l tn dng phi sn xut mc 17% tng d n. n thi im 31/8/2011 t l n xu ca ring ngn hng MB tng nh ln mc 1.66%. MB cng thnh lp thm 23 im giao dch k t u nm, nng tng s dim giao dch ca MB ln 163 im. IM NHN U T V th ca MB: . MB l mt trong mi ngn hng c tng ti sn ln nht VN. L ngn hng c tc tng trng cao trong nhng nm gn y: th hin cc ch tiu kinh doanh nh tng trng tng ti sn, tng trng tn dng, huy ng, tng trng vn iu l v vn ch s hu, n cc ch tiu tng trng thu nhp li, tng trng thu nhp ph, tng trng li nhun trc thu. Trong giai on 2007-2010, cc ch s trn tng trng trung bnh mc trn 50%/nm. Hiu qu kinh doanh th hin qua cc ch tiu ti chnh: Tng trng ROE, ROA thc s hp dn. ROAE v ROAA ca ngn hng trong nm 2010 t ln lt l 22.13% v 1.95%, nm trong nhm cc NH ng u v ch s hiu qu. Ngoi ra cc ch s NIM, CIR, ca MB cng c nh gi cao trong h thng ngn hng. MB ch trng cng tc qun tr ri ro v tim nng tng trng tn dng ca MB cn ln. Cui nm 2010 CAR ca MB mc an ton so vi quy nh ti thiu ca NHNN, mc 11.6%. T l cho vay khch hng trn tin gi khch hng mc thp so vi cc NHTM khc. Cui nm 2010, LDR mc 74%. NH GI Cn c vo k hoch trong nm 2011 v kt qu kinh doanh thc t ca ngn hng trong na u nm 2011, chng ti xy dng m hnh nh gi P/E v P/B v d bo gi ca c phiu MB sau khi nim yt s vo khong 15,800 17,800 VND. RI RO Ri ro v m: Ngnh ngn hng ni chung v ngn hng Qun i ni ring chu nhng ri ro n t chnh sch v m. Cc chnh sch ny c th nh hng ng k n hot ng tn dng v huy ng ca ngn hng, do nh hng ng k n li nhun. Cnh tranh gay gt trong ngnh: Nhm ngn hng TMCP khng ch cnh tranh vi cc ngn hng ni a c tng ti sn ln, m cn cnh tranh vi nhm cc ngn hng nc ngoi c nhiu kinh nghim v qun l, iu hnh. Ri ro pha long gi c phiu: Cng vi k hoch tng vn iu l kh mnh ln 10,000 t ng trong nm nay v trin vng kinh doanh ca ngnh trong iu kin tht cht tin t c th nh hng n tng trng thu nhp, ri ro t pha long gi c phiu l kh trnh khi.15%Ngun: TLS tng hpTLS Vietnam: 98 Nguy Nhu KonTum Thanh xuan, Hanoi, Vietnam Website: www.tls.vn Bloomberg : TLSVSales & Trading - Hanoi Nguyen Viet Dzung E: Dzung.NguyenViet@tls.vnSales & Trading - HCMC Trn Th Hu Phng E: Phuong.TranThiHue@tls.vn

2. aTNG HP TI CHNH Bo co KQKD (t ng)20102011F2012F2013FTng trng (%)20102011F2012F2013FThu nhp li8,76613,25614,39416,427T.trng h. ng64.4%19.0%18.0%21.0%(5,247)(8,521)(9,226)(10,385)T. trng tn dng64.9%20.0%15.0%20.0%3,5194,7345,1676,042T. trng n xu31.1%50.0%12.0%16.0%7368461,0571,322T.trng VCSH29.0%51.8%14.4%19.9%Chi ph dch v(147)(170)(223)(301)T.trng Tng TS58.9%14.2%18.2%19.4%Li thun H CK(236)(9)88109T.trng CP H59.9%46.5%29.3%15.0%T.trng Li rng59.4%11.1%26.3%28.1%Chi ph li Thu nhp li thun Thu nhp H dch vLi/l H u t Thu nhp t H khc Thu nhp t H LD-(49)24531243032572839177119167D phng u t0(420)13090Chi ph hot ng(1,254)(1,836)(2,374)(2,730)2,8343,3104,1244,953LN (trc d phng)EPS ( trn VL cui nm)2,3911,9392,1292,272C tc16.3%15.0%15.0%15.0%BVPS12,16813,48013,41513,399Chi ph d phng(521)(785)(818)(727)LNTT2,2882,5263,3064,226Chi nhnh140175210250Chi ph thu TN DN(551)(628)(810)(1,035)Nhn vin3,269360039504500Li nhun sau thu1,7371,8982,4963,190Li ch thiu s3341(48)(55)Li nhun rng1,7701,9392,4493,136PE7.106.697.508.50Bng CKT (t ng)PB1.151.071.181.3020102011F2012F2013F11.60%13.00%12.50%12.0%1.35%1.90%1.70%1.4%20102011F2012F2013FTin mt, vng bc8699681,0421,044Tin gi ti NHNN7461,1341,2461,50833,65237,01745,16154,4191,6901,6522,3172,848Tin gi ti cc TCTD CK kinh doanh Cng c phi sinhCht lng ti sn CAR t l n xu----48,79758,54867,32480,781D phng n xu/n xuD phng RR cho vay(738)(1,523)(2,341)(3,068)Chng khon u t17,14019,24124,12428,9681,2241,5951,8352,110----Cho vay khch hngTi sn v thit b Ti sn di hn khc Bt ng sn u t1311501731996,1136,4197,0617,767109,623125,203147,942176,5758,7696141,5651,722Deposits to banks16,91721,99224,19127,819Tin gi khch hng65,74178,23292,313111,699---D phng n xu/ cho vay1.5%2.6%3.5%3.8%120.4%120.0%125.0%130.0%N xu/ VCSH6.90%8.50%7.40%7.0%Ch s BCKT20102011F2012F2013FCho vay KH/huy ng KH74.2%74.8%72.9%72.3%Cho vay KH/ti sn44.5%46.8%45.5%45.7%CK u t/ti sn14.2%13.9%14.8%14.8%huy ng KH/ tng huy ng67.8%73.8%73.4%74.6%0.500.590.540.51-Ti sn C khc Tng Ti sn N v phi tr NHNNCng c phi sinh Vn ti tr y thcVay LNH / Gi LNH VCSH/ TTS Ti sn sinh lii/TTS10.8%10.4%10.5%91.1%91.6%92.3%11717819421420102011F2012F2013FPH giy t c gi5,4115,0597,5888,347NIM4.30%4.45%4.14%4.05%Cc khon n khc2,9284,8315,7987,363TN li rng/ tng TN86.1%85.0%79.5%78.6%Tng n phi tr99,882110,905131,650157,16514.40%12.15%12.84%13.3%Vn ch s hu8,88213,48015,42718,491Chi ph H/Tng thu nhp30.7%33.0%36.5%35.5%Vn iu l7,30010,00011,50013,800Chi ph d phng/ Cho vay KH1.1%1.3%1.2%0.9%----Qu ca TCTD80180180180120102011F2012F2013FLN cha phn phi7812,6793,1263,890ROAA1.95%1.65%1.79%1.93%Li ch ca CTS859817865920ROAE22.1%17.3%15.9%17.0%109,623125,203147,942176,575Vn khcTng n v vn CSH2TLS Vietnam: 98 Nguy Nhu KonTum Thanh xuan, Hanoi, Vietnam Website: www.tls.vn Bloomberg : TLSVDoanh thu, chi ph8.1% 90.1%Ph / Tng TNNgun: TLSSales & Trading - Hanoi Nguyen Viet Dzung E: Dzung.NguyenViet@tls.vnSales & Trading - HCMC Trn Th Hu Phng E: Phuong.TranThiHue@tls.vn 3. aIM NHN U T V th ca MB trn th trng ti chnh. Ch tiu Tng ti sn Vn iu l VCSH Tng d n Tng huy ng LNSTEIB 131,110 10,560 13,510 62,345 89,530 1,814STB 152,560 9,179 13,983 83,042 80,528 1,905ACB 205,102 9,376 11,375 87,195 106,936 2,334VCB 307,496 13,223 20,669 176,972 210,339 4,235CTG 367,712 15,172 18,170 238,494 214,826 3,414HBB 37,987 3,000 3,533 18,704 16,322 476SHB 51,032 3,497 4,183 24,375 25,633 494MB 109,623 7,300 8,882 48,797 65,741 1,745Ngun: BCTC 2010 cc NH n thi im cui 2010, MB nm trong danh sch 10 ngn hng c tng ti sn ln nht trn th trng ti chnh Vit Nam. Tuy nhin xt trn quy m ti sn ca cc ngn hng nim yt, MB v tr trung bnh so vi cc ngn hng nhm TMCP c so snh. C th, tng ti sn ca MB cao hn ng k so vi HBB, SHB tuy nhin vn thp hn VCB, CTG, ACB, STB, EIB. Tuy nhin vi tc tng trng cao nhiu ch tiu, khong cch gia MB v cc NHTM hng u trn th trng ti chnh ang dn c thu hp. Cc ch tiu kinh doanh tng trng mc cao Chng ti tng hp mt s ch tiu chnh trong bng cn i k ton v bo co thu nhp trong gia on 2007-2010. MB t c tc tng trng mnh v n nh qua cc nm. c bit trong giai on ny nn kinh t Vit Nam phi i mt vi hai ln chnh sch tin t tht cht mnh m vo cui nm 2008 v 2010, nh hng mnh m n cc hot ng kinh t ni chung v hot ng kinh doanh ca khi ngn hng ni ring. Tuy nhin cc ch tiu chnh ca MB u c tc tng trng hng nm ln hn 50%. Ch tiu20072008200920101H2011CAGR 2007-2010TTS29,62444,34669,008109,623115,18254.68%Cho vay khch hng11,61315,74029,58848,79754,10061.37%Tng huy ng26,07439,66961,51399,882104,85256.47%Huy ng khch hng17,78527,16339,97865,74172,68554.62%VL2,0003,4005,3007,3007,30053.97%Tng thu nhp H1,0541,6382,6544,0882,31557.10%Thu nhp li6331,4211,8383,5192,41077.12%Thu nhp ph thun19219138158933545.36%LNST4927031,0951,74572152.54%Ngun: BCTC MB qua cc nm So snh vi mt s NHTM c quy m ln thuc nhm mt v nhm hai c nim yt, MB t c tng trng cc ch tiu chnh mc cao v ng u hn. Nhiu ch tiu tng trng ca MB t mc cao nht trong s cc ngn hng c so snh. C th, tng trng tng thu nhp hot ng v tng trng thu nhp li thun mc 57.1%/nm v 77.12%/ nm, gp hn hai ln so vi cc NHTM nhm 1 l VCB, CTG v cao hn nhiu so vi cc ngn hng nhm hai. Tng trng huy ng v tn dng cng mc cao nht trong khi tng trng tng ti sn v li nhun sau thu ch thp hn mt cht so vi EIB v cao hn nhiu so vi cc ngn hng khc.3TLS Vietnam: 98 Nguy Nhu KonTum Thanh xuan, Hanoi, Vietnam Website: www.tls.vn Bloomberg : TLSVSales & Trading - Hanoi Nguyen Viet Dzung E: Dzung.NguyenViet@tls.vnSales & Trading - HCMC Trn Th Hu Phng E: Phuong.TranThiHue@tls.vn 4. aTng trng trung bnh hng nm cc ch tiu giai on 2007-2010 ca cc NH. Ch tiu TTS Cho vay KH Tin gi KH VL Tng thu nhp H Thu nhp li thun Thu nhp ph thun LNSTVCB 15.9% 21.9% 13.1% 35.8% 26.0% 25.9% 33.1% 20.5%CTG 30.3% 32.1% 22.3% 23.9% 30.6% 37.2% 62.5% 43.6%ACB 33.9% 39.8% 24.6% 52.8% 22.0% 47.0% 45.0% 9.9%STB 33.1% 32.4% 21.0% 34.9% 27.5% 50.0% 80.8% 11.7%EIB 57.3% 49.7% 36.4% 29.3% 53.4% 61.5% 87.3% 57.6%MB 54.7% 61.4% 54.6% 54.0% 57.1% 77.1% 45.3% 52.5%Ngun: TLS tng hp Hiu qu kinh doanh th hin qua cc ch tiu ti chnh.ROAEROAA35.00%2.500%30.00% 2.000% 25.00% 1.500%20.00% 15.00%1.000%10.00% .500% 5.00% .000%.00% 2008 ACBCTGEIB2009 HBBSHB20082010 STBVCBMBACBCTGEIB2009 HBBSHB2010 STBVCBMBNgun: TLS tng hpROE, ROA