能源与生态文明ENERGY FOR AN ECOLOGICAL CIVILIZATION

主讲人Manish Bapna

执行副总裁 兼 常务董事 世界资源研究所

Executive Vice President, WRI

COAL煤炭

Photo Credit: Flickr/Peter Garnum

(WRI, 2012)

COAL | PROPOSED NEW COAL POWER CAPACITY煤炭 | 计划新增煤电产能

(WRI, 2012)

INDIA印度

COAL | PROPOSED NEW COAL POWER CAPACITY煤炭 | 计划新增煤电产能

(WRI, 2012)

INDIA印度

CHINA中国

COAL | PROPOSED NEW COAL POWER CAPACITY煤炭 | 计划新增煤电产能

COAL | AIR QUALITY IMPACTS煤炭 | 空气质量影响

COAL | COAL DEVELOPMENT AND WATER RISK煤炭 | 煤炭发展与水资源危机

COAL | A NEW U.S. APPROACH?煤炭 | 一个新的美国减排思路？

“ 所以今天，为了我们的孩子和所有美国人的健康和安全着想，我要求美国国家环境保护局为新建的和现有的电厂制定完整的排放标准，

结束发电厂不受限制的温室气体排放现状。”- 美国总统奥巴马

 “So today, for the sake of our children, and the health and

safety of all Americans, I’m directing the Environmental

Protection Agency to put an end to the limitless dumping of

carbon pollution from our power plants, and complete new

pollution standards for both new and existing power plants.”

- US President Barack Obama

NATURAL GAS天然气

Photo Credit: Flickr/Johnny Shaw

NATURAL GAS | SHALE GAS RESERVES天然气 | 页岩气全球储量

(EIA, 2013

NATURAL GAS | SHALE GAS PUTS DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON NATURAL GAS PRICES天然气 | 页岩气对天然气价格造成了下行压力

(EIA, 2009-2012)

19901992

19941996

19982000

20022004

20062008

20102012

20142016

20182020

20222024

20262028

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2

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(EIA, 2009-2012)

19901992

19941996

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20062008

20102012

20142016

20182020

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NATURAL GAS | SHALE GAS PUTS DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON NATURAL GAS PRICES天然气 | 页岩气对天然气价格造成了下行压力

(EIA, 2009-2012)

19901992

19941996

19982000

20022004

20062008

20102012

20142016

20182020

20222024

20262028

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2

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nry

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2010

2011

NATURAL GAS | SHALE GAS PUTS DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON NATURAL GAS PRICES天然气 | 页岩气对天然气价格造成了下行压力

(EIA, 2009-2012)

19901992

19941996

19982000

20022004

20062008

20102012

20142016

20182020

20222024

20262028

20300

2

4

6

8

10

Av

era

ge

He

nry

Hu

b s

po

t p

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2009

2010

2011

2012

NATURAL GAS | SHALE GAS PUTS DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON NATURAL GAS PRICES天然气 | 页岩气对天然气价格造成了下行压力

SHALE | SHALE DEPOSITS AND WATER RISK页岩 | 页岩储藏与水资源危机

SHALE | A ‘Transition’ Fuel for U.S.页岩气 | 一种美国的“过渡性”能源

Photo Credit: Flickr/Oly Pentax

“...... 这是一种过渡燃料，可以在更少的碳排放情况下推动我们的经济，发展和部署未来更清洁的能源经济所需的更多技术。”

- 美国总统奥巴马“…It’s the transition fuel that can power our economy with less

carbon pollution even as our businesses work to develop and

then deploy more of the technology required for the even

cleaner energy economy of the future.”

- US President Barack Obama

RENEWABLES可再生能源

Photo Credit: Flickr/IFC Infrastructure

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Quarterly

Bill

ion

s o

f d

olla

rsRENEWABLES | WHERE NEXT FOR INVESTMENT?

(Bloomberg New Energy Finance, 2013)

N.B. Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Excludes corporate and government R&D.

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

$268.7BN(2012)

RENEWABLE ENERGY | 2012 GLOBAL INVESTMENT可再生能源 | 2012 年全球投资情况 China

中国 24%

Germany德国 8%

India 印度 3%

United States 美国 13%

Other 其他 51%

Source: BNEF

Total Invested: $269 Billion总投资额： 2690 亿美元

RENEWABLE ENERGY | INSTALLED WIND CAPACITY可再生能源 | 风电装机容量

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

ChinaGermanyIndiaUnited States

To

tal

Ins

tall

ed

Win

d C

ap

ac

ity

(G

W)

Source: BP

RENEWABLE ENERGY | INSTALLED SOLAR CAPACITY可再生能源 | 太阳能发电装机容量

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

ChinaGermanyIndiaUnited States

To

tal

Ins

tall

ed

So

lar

PV

Ca

pa

cit

y (

GW

)

neck and neck

Source: BP, (purple represents uncertainty in the BP, BNEF and REN21 numbers)

BMU - E I 1Development of renewable energy sources in Germany in 2012 22

RENEWABLE ENERGY | US TO DOUBLE DOWN可再生能源 | 翻番

“ 这意味着工作机会 – 因制造风力涡轮机而创造的工作机会，现在能为近1500 万个家庭提供电力。

我今天宣布的计划将帮助我们再次翻番我们的风电和太阳能发电。”

- 美国总统奥巴马

“And that means jobs – jobs manufacturing the wind turbines that now

generate enough electricity to power nearly 15 million homes.

The plan I’m announcing today will help us double again our energy from

wind and sun”

-US President Barack Obama

CHINA’S ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION IS MASSIVELY COSTLY

Syria

Nepal

Lebanon

Cambodia

Moro

cco

Algeria

Peru

Benin

Bangladesh

Egypt

Pakista

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C.A.R

.

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China

Tajikist

an

Ghana

0

2

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Co

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l de

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da

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s %

of

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P e

qu

iva

len

t

9.2% OF GDP

(World Bank reports, 2005-2012)

谢谢THANK YOU