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Slides for a 1-day workshop on "Future Technologies and Their Applications" facilitated by Brian Kelly and Tony Hirst at the ILI 2013 conference on Monday 14 October 2013. See http://ukwebfocus.wordpress.com/events/ili-2013-workshop/ See http://ukwebfocus.wordpress.com/events/ili-2013-workshop/
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Future Technologies and Their Applications
A one-day workshop at ILI 2013 facilitated by Brian Kelly and Tony Hirst
Twitter hashtag: #ili2013fut
Available under a Creative Commons (CC-BY licence)
E1: Technology Trends: Scenario Planning
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Review
We have:• Heard about the approach developed by the JISC
Observatory for detecting signals of new technological developments.
• Heard about the importance of open processes for discussing the implications of the evidence.
• Used a Delphi process for identifying technological developments which you feel to be important.
• Presented cases giving reasons why these areas should be investigated further.
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But What Of Our Organisation?
How will our organisations respond to:• The technological developments we have
identified? • Unforeseen technological developments?• Political, social, economic and cultural
changes?
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Scenario Planning
Scenario planning is:• A strategic planning method that some organisations
use to make flexible long-term plans.• An adaptation and generalization of classic methods
used by military intelligence.
Processes:• Step 1 - decide assumptions/drivers for change• Step 2 - bring drivers together into a viable framework• Step 3 - produce initial mini-scenarios• Step 4 - reduce to two or three scenarios• Step 5 - write the scenarios• Step 6 - identify issues arising From http://en.wikipedia.org/
wiki/Scenario_planning
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Scenarios
Possible scenarios
Commercialisation Devolved ownership
Everyone’s a librarianThe niche librarian
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Scenario 1: Commercialisation
By 2016:• Libraries had responded by financial
pressures by making significant use of commercial services
• Companies are now looking to respond to pressure from shareholders to increase profits
In your group:• How would your organisation respond to this scenario?• What evidence should you gather in order to see if this
scenario is likely to happen?• What are the pros and cons of this scenario?
Is this scenario one you:• Feel is likely?• Would welcome?
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Scenario 2: Devolution
By 2016:• Facebook, Amazon, … had alienated users due
to abuse of privacy, failure to pay taxes, …• There was a move towards small-scale services
which were owned/managed by trusted organisations
In your group:• How would your organisation respond to this scenario?• What evidence should you gather in order to see if this
scenario is likely to happen?• What are the pros and cons of this scenario?
Is this scenario one you:• Feel is likely?• Would welcome?
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Scenario 3: Everyone’s a Librarian
By 2016:• The majority are now connected using social networks
and are comfortable in using the services• Skills which previously librarians possessed (cataloging
resources, resource discovery, …) are now held by many.• The role of the dedicated librarian is being questioned
In your group:• How would your organisation respond to this scenario?• What evidence should you gather in order to see if this
scenario is likely to happen?• What are the pros and cons of this scenario?
Is this scenario one you:• Feel is likely?• Would welcome?
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Scenario 4: The Niche Librarian
By 2016:• We had seen a decline in student numbers in library
schools and the demise of their professional organisation following significant government cuts
• The professional body asked its few remaining members for their thoughts on the future of the profession
In your group:• How would your organisation respond to this scenario?• What evidence should you gather in order to see if this
scenario is likely to happen?• What are the pros and cons of this scenario?
Is this scenario one you:• Feel is likely?• Would welcome?
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Scenario 5: Your Own Scanario
You may choose to :• Define a scenario which will mean a changed
environment for your organisation by 2016 • Provide a brief summary of the scenario and
then address the issues below
In your group:• How would your organisation respond to this scenario?• What evidence should you gather in order to see if this
scenario is likely to happen?• What are the pros and cons of this scenario?
Is this scenario one you:• Feel is likely?• Would welcome?
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Scenarios
Possible scenarios
Commercialisation Devolved ownership
Everyone’s a librarianThe niche librarian
Your own scenarioa
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Group Exercise
You should now:• Address one of these scenarios.• Give a report on your discussions.
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Questions
Any questions?