1. Economic development policy is a weak and poten3ally counterproduc3ve channel forunderminingterrorism,bothinFATAandingeneral.

2. Links between low levels of development and terrorismareweak. Aidmoneyisunlikelytodelivergrowth. Aid money may fuel terrorist ac3vity and regional violence. Aidmoneyisunlikelytohelptheimmediatemilitary campaignbychangingheartsandminds. 3. UShaspledged$750milliontoFATAand$7.5billiontothePakistanigovernmentindevelopmentaid(inaddi3onto$10billioninmilitaryaid).Source:CIAFactbook,USAID 4. Ifullybelievethattherootcauseofterrorismdoes comefromsitua5onswherethereispoverty,wherethereisignorance,wherepeopleseenohopeintheir lives ColinPowell,U.S.DepartmentofState2002 5. ReportsofTalibanprovidinghigherwagesandaQrac3ng recruits. MessageofabeQerlifewiththeTaliban."Theirmessageisthereisalotofinjus5ceandwewillgiveyouland,wewilllookaIeryou." BBCinterviewingare3redseniorocialfromNorth WestPakistan 6. Theonlyrelevantcrosscountrystudydonesofardoesntndaroleforpovertytoexplaincountriesoforiginofterrorists. Microevidenceisevenclearer:Source:KruegerandMaleckov,Educa3on,PovertyandTerrorism:Isthereacausalconnec3on?,2003 7. Especiallytheleadingforcescomefromwealthy backgrounds.OsamaBinLaden AymanalZawahiri (AlQaedasdeputy) 8. Source:KruegerandMaleckov,Educa3on,PovertyandTerrorism:Isthereacausalconnec3on?,2003 9. Source:PSPCRopinionpollfromWestBankandGazaStrip,December2001 10. PinarDerinGre,DoesTerrorismhaveeconomicroots?(unpublishedpaper),2009 11. Resultsarelikelytobeupwardbiasedduetoreverse causalitybetweenterrorismandGDP. Themostfavorableregressionresultsimply spendingsofUS$211billionsperyear,inorderto decreaseannualinterna3onalterroristaQacksfrom Pakistanby1. 12. Narra3vesoftheriseofIslamicterrorismpointto inequalityandpovertyastherootofaQrac3onto radicalideologies.Middle East 13. Source:WorldBankWorldDevelopmentIndicators,Interna3onalFinancialSta3s3csoftheIMF 14. UNLIKELY: Boththehistoryofaidandthepar3cularcondi3ons oftheFATAregionmakeitUNLIKELYthataidcan creategrowth. 15. Economicresearchonaidandgrowth: S3llnoclearresultsaler40years. Aid is probably not a fundamentally decisive factor for development, not asimportant as, say, domestic savings, inequality, or governance. Roodman(2007) 16. 33%undertotalcontrolofterrorists,40%heavilyinuencedbythem. ProjectsTalibandonotlikecannotbedone. Talibanhassteppedupviolenceagainstaidworkersanddemands themtoleavethewholeofPakistan. Chiefofpartyassassinated. Over500schoolsintheregiondestroyed. Dicul3esofaidpoliciesapparentfromrecentaudits. 17. Economicresearchsuggeststhattheaidhasatbest aweakimpactongrowth. Condi3onsofFATAmakeaiddeliveriesdicultifnot impossible.Developmentaidisunlikelytohaveanimpacton growthinFATA 18. Aidprovidesincen3vesfor perpetua3onofthe problemTalibanrequiressecurityfeesforleqngaiddeliveriespass Aidmayfueltribalconict 19. Feeblelinkbetweenaidandgrowth+aidmightbe counterproduc3veDevelopmentaidisapoortoolforgh5ngterror 20. USAmaybeabletoproduceshorttermeects oodresponseshowsthatopinionsdeteriorate quickly. Securityiskeytogeqngthe popula3ontoworkwithyou (e.g.Malaya).USAcannot providethisinmuchofFATA. 21. Bombingci3zensand expec3ngpeopletolike youifthemmaterialgoods isridiculous(lessonfrom VietnamWar).Source:SurveybytheNewAmericaFounda5ononFATA2010 22. Americanaidisolenseen asawayofconquering Islam.PeopleviewUSAas biggestthreattosecurity.Source:SurveybytheNewAmericaFounda5ononFATA2010 23. WeaklinksbetweenunderdevelopmentandpovertyLiQleevidencethataidwillcreatedevelopmentin FATAandmayfuelterrorism. USAIDshouldstopalloca?ngaidtoFATAand Pakistaninordertoghtterrorism.