AREA STUDY: UKRAINE I. BACKGROUND

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• Kievan Rus • Grand Duchy of Lithuania • Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth • Cossack Hetmanate • Russian Empire and collapse of tsarist Russia • WW1 and Famines 1921-22 and 1932-33 • WW2 • Independence and the Orange Revolution • Post-2012 events • Important national versions of historical events

I. BACKGROUND

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KIEVAN RUS (882-1240)

Source: TWC

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KIEVAN RUS (882-1240)

Source material:

Significance to current geopolitics:

• Historical clash between Kievan Rus, Rus and Byzantium. Russia strongly identifies itself with Byzantium (rather than early medieval Rus)

• Perception of the conflict in Russia: clash of civilizations

• Both Kievan Rus and Rus fell victim to Mongol raids after 1240

• Orthodox Christianity introduced (before: paganism)

• Internet Encyclopedia of Ukraine • TWC

Important national versions:

• In Soviet times history in schools focused largely on ancient history to avoid current events (All of Eastern Europe)

• The Fall of the Empire: The lessons of Byzantium • The film ties Russian Federation and Byzantium

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GRAND DUCHY OF LITHUANIA (1230s–1569)

Source material: • All about Ukraine • Britannica

Significance to current geopolitics:

• Very long period of relative peace, compared to Russia and Western Europe

• Strong nation- and state-building tradition, long historical ties to Europe

• Multiethnic empire (Slavs, Scandinavian nations, Jews, Tatars and others)

• Ended with union with Poland

• Rethinking of Ukrainian identity in response to Russian aggression

• Gediminids Project • Norkus 2007 – Comparative sociology of GDL

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POLISH-LITHUANIAN COMMONWEALTH

(1569 – 1795)

Source material: • Kozlowski, 2003 • Britannica

Significance to current geopolitics:

• Polonization of boyars in areas governed by the PLC (Western orientation), more Russian influence in the East

• PLC ended with partition of Poland – integration with Russia relatively new

Profound change in internal social hierarchy , enserfment of peasants. Landlords were Polish or Polonized and Roman Catholic, peasants were Ukrainian and Orthodox. National and religious grievances.

origin of the current divide within Ukraine into East and West

Impact on Polish-Ukrainian relations and mutual perceptions

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COSSACK HETMANATE (1648 to 1782) The Cossacks defended Ukraine’s frontier population from Tatar incursions, conducted their own campaigns into Crimean territory, and raided Turkish coastal cities in Anatolia. The Polish government found the Cossacks a useful fighting force in wars with the Tatars, Turks, and Muscovites but in peacetime viewed them as a dangerously volatile element. The expansionist ambitions of the Russian Empire relied on ensuring the loyalty of Cossacks which caused tension given their traditional exercise of freedom, democratic self-rule, and independence. (Britannica)

Significance to current geopolitics:

Volatile independent element whose loyalty is perceived as crucial

Manuscript The History of the Rus became an important part of both Russian and Ukrainian folk mythology.

Left Bank – Right Bank division of Ukraine established during Hetmanate

Russian version of Cossack alliances

Source material: • Encyclopedia of Ukraine • Operation Keelhaul (WW2)

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RUSSIAN EMPIRE & COLLAPSE OF TSARIST RUSSIA (1790s – 1917)

Significance to current geopolitics:

• Catherine the Great is the source of inspiration for Putin’s expansion

• Differences between regions rooted in historical experience (Russia v. Austria)

• Origin of current Ukrainian nationalism – different pace and stage in different regions

The era of Catherine the Great (1762 – 1796) • Abolition of Hetmanate and Sloboda Ukraine • Partition of Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth (1795) • Annexation of the Crimean khanate (1783) • Colonization of Novorossiya • Russification of Ukrainian nobility on the Left Bank • Romanov Empire: imperial identity (russki) and maloruski

• Abolition of serfdom (1861) freedom by order First demographic transition in Russian controlled part of Ukraine

• The Revolution of 1905 • The Makhno Uprising – not all revolutionaries in this period were Bolshevik • Soviet-Ukrainian War 1917-21

Galicia under Maria Theresa enjoyed much better conditions. Politicization after 1848.

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HISTORICAL REGIONS

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BOLSHEVIK REVOLUTION IN UKRAINE (1917-1921)

Significance to current geopolitics:

• Important source of Ukrainian national heroes and role models

• Multiple parties in WWI and WWII conflicts poorly understood in the West – Russian press takes advantage of these historical events taken out of context

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WWI and FAMINES 1921-22 and 1932-33 • 1918 Ukraine recognized in the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk • 1919 not recognized in the Treaty of Versailles Failed attempt to attain a statehood • 1921 two thirds of Ukrainian territory became Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic

The 1933-34 famine 1937-38 purges and deportations

Significance to current geopolitics:

• Extreme experiences with Russian rule (oppression, depopulation, genocide)

• Yanukovich’s comments that the famine cannot be considered a genocide caused serious backlash

• Roots of current Ukrainian nationalism

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WWII and Cold War In Western Ukraine German invaders were initially welcomed as liberators

Between Hitler & Stalin: Ukraine in WWII The Untold Story

Maps: Ukraine in History

Significance to current geopolitics

• Huge nuclear and conventional arsenal after 1991, Kremlin Accords (1994), extensive demilitarization project, nuclear disarmament (1996) and handover of Soviet era nuclear arsenal to Russia BUDAPEST MEMORANDUM

• Obligation to respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity

(1954) Armed resistance to Soviet rule ended with defeat of Ukrainian Insurgent Army (1986) Chernobyl nuclear power station reactor exploded, sent a radioactive cloud across Europe (1988) Ukrainian People's Movement for restructuring Rukh set up by writers and intellectuals (1990) Human chain protested for Ukrainian independence; Ukrainian sovereignty proclaimed

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REICHSKOMMISSARIAT

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Map of USSR

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IMPORTANT NATIONAL VERSIONS OF HISTORICAL EVENTS

Part 1 | Part 2 | Part 3 | Part 4

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1991 INDEPENDENCE ELECTIONS

TURNOUT SUPPORT FOR INDEPENDENCE

Referendum question : “Do you support the Act of the Declaration of the Independence of Ukraine?”

Region Voted %

Sevastopol 63.74

Crimea 67.5

Odessa 75.01

Kharkiv 75.68

Donetsk 76.73

Kiev 80.35

Zaporizhia 80.59

LOWEST LOWEST HIGHEST

Region Yes %

Crimea 54.19

Sevastopol 57.07

Luhansk 83.86

Donetsk 83.9

Odessa 85.38

Kharkiv 86.33

Mykolaiv 89.45

AVERAGE AVERAGE

Region Yes %

Ternopil 98.67

Ivano-Frankivsk 98.42

Lviv 97.46

Volyn 96.32

Khmelnytskyi 96.3

Cherkasy 96.03

HIGHEST

Region Voted %

Ternopil 97.1

Ivano-Frankivsk

95.73

Lviv 95.24

Khmelnytskyi 93.4

Volyn 93.2

Rivne 92.99

84.18% 90.32%

Significance to current geopolitics

• CRIMEA: Black Sea Fleet and nuclear status major source of national pride

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UKRAINE AFTER 1991

24 Aug 1991 INDEPENDENCE: Ukraine declares its independence from the USSR by stating it would no longer follow Soviet law.

1 Dec 1991 Independence formalized in nation-wide referendum

5 Dec 1991 Presidential elections: LEONID KRAVCHUK

1993 Hyperinflation, national currency: coupon

1994 Early elections, LEONID KUCHMA becomes President

1994 NPT Treaty, Budapest Memorandum

1995 Mass privatization begins

1996 Hryvna replaces coupon as national currency

1996 Nuclear disarmament

1996 New class of oligarchs emerges, economy falters YUSHCHENKO (pro-Western) appointed PM

2000 Gongadze scandal , the last from a series of prominent opponents murdered during the Kuchma regime

2004 ORANGE REVOLUTION

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Leonid Makarovych Kravchuk

• Kravchuk supported Ukrainian independence movement. After the failure of the coup attempt by Soviet Communist hardliners in August 1991, he expressed unqualified support for independence.

• He was elected president in December 1991 but lost reelection to Leonid Kuchma in July 1994.

• Nuclear disarmament: Ukraine has no control over its nuclear arsenal (DW)

• 1992: Administration reform

• Kravchuk failed to avoid corruption in the privatization of the industry. Ukrainian annual inflation reached thousands of percents. Millions of loans given by the semi-government banks defaulted.

• Kravchuk refused to retain the common armed forces and currency inside the Commonwealth of Independent States.

• Rather than NATO expansion, Kravchuk wanted Ukraine's participation in building a new, inclusive security architecture for Europe.

• In 1994, Leonid Kravchuk joined the powerful business and political group Kiev Holding or the Dynamo Group led by oligarchs Viktor Medvedchuk and Hryhoriy Surkis, formally organized as the Social Democratic Party of Ukraine (united).

born January 10, 1934, Żytyń Wielki, Poland (now Ukraine) President of Ukraine from 1991 to 1994

Bio: For 30 years a Communist Party functionary, he converted to nationalist politics after the collapse of the Soviet regime. In 1958 Kravchuk graduated from the Kiev T.H. Shevchenko State University and joined the Communist Party. He taught political economics in Chernivtsi and began a political career, rising in the 1980s to top posts in the propaganda and ideology departments for Ukraine. He became chairman of the Ukrainian Supreme Soviet in July 1990, and as such he soon became the effective leader of the republic. 6/

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Leonid Danylovych Kuchma

• In the 1994 Kuchma defeated Kravchuk. His popularity steadily declined, however, as his reforms failed to improve the country’s economy.

• 1994 - 1996 nuclear disarmament

• In 1999 he was reelected president, though observers alleged voting irregularities.

• In 2002 the opposition called for Kuchma’s impeachment after the authentication of audio tapes that allegedly implicated him in the 2000 murder of the dissident journalist Georgy Gongadze and revealed his approval of the sale of a radar system to Iraq in violation of a UN Security Council resolution. He was cleared by the Constitutional Court to seek a third term.

• In 2004, Kuchma backed the candidacy of Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych against Yushchenko. Kuchma called for a new election to settle the crisis. Yushchenko won the new election ordered by the Supreme Court, and Kuchma left office in January 2005.

• In March 2011 he was charged with abuse of power in connection with the murder of Gongadze, but the case was dropped in December of that year when a judge ruled that incriminating recordings made by Kuchma’s former bodyguard were not admissible as evidence.

Born August 9, 1938, Chaykyne, Ukraine, U.S.S.R. Second president of independent Ukraine (1994–2005).

Bio: Kuchma worked as an engineer, serving as Communist Party secretary (1972–82) and a technical manager in Baikonur, Kazakhstan. From 1986 to 1992, he served as the general director of Yuzhmash, the world’s largest rocket-construction firm, in Dnipropetrovsk. Kuchma became prime minister (1992–93) and his administration supported increased privatization, free trade, and closer ties with Russia. Kuchma clashed with Kravchuk over economic policies and resigned from the post after one year. In 1993 Kuchma was appointed chairman of the Ukrainian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs. 6/

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NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT (1994 – 1996)

Significance to current geopolitics

• Huge nuclear and conventional arsenal inherited from the Soviet Union returned to USSR for liquidation in exchange for assurances of obligation to respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity

• Russians may now deploy nuclear weapons to Crimea

Upon the breakup of the Soviet Union, Ukraine inherited 176 strategic and more than 2,500 tactical nuclear missiles, the third largest nuclear weapons stockpile in the world after the Russian Federation and the United States.

• January 1994: Trilateral Statement - Ukraine committed to full disarmament • 1994: Ukraine, Russia, UK and USA signed Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances • 1994: Ukraine joined the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) as a non-nuclear

weapon state • 1996: Ukraine acceded to the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START I), • 1996: Ukraine transferred all of its nuclear warheads to Russia for elimination and became nuclear-

weapon-free

Sources: NTI, CFR, DW

According to Kravchuk, Ukraine had no control over this arsenal. "All the control systems were in Russia. The so-called black suitcase with the start button, that was with Russian president Boris Yeltsin."

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NATO-UKRAINE RELATIONS

1992: The first outreach: “work together towards a new, lasting order of peace in Europe through dialogue, partnership, and cooperation” 1994: The Partnership for Peace 1997: The NATO-Ukraine Charter on a Distinctive Partnership 2002-2008 Strengthening the partnership 2008: The Bucharest NATO Summit 2010: Reinforced partnership

• Ukraine joined NATO’s exercise “Steadfast Jazz” and became the first partner country to contribute a ship to the counter-piracy Operation Ocean Shield

2014: The Russia-Ukraine crisis • See Factsheet (5 May 2015)

Source: • NATO – Ukraine relations • Factsheet: NATO Practical support to Ukraine

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THE GONGADZE SCANDAL

• Journalist Georgy Gongadze, the founder of web site Ukrayinska Pravda • Found beheaded and laced with acid in 2000 • the Gongadze case became a symbol of the regime’s lawlessness and of the struggle

against this regime • In 2002 the opposition called for Kuchma’s impeachment after the authentication of

audio tapes that implicated him in the murder of Gongadze. • In March 2011 Kuchma was charged with abuse of power but the case was dropped

Some of the enigmatic deaths from Kuchma’s era: • Chairman of the Ukrainian Barristers Union • former National Bank Chairman Vadym Hetman • opposition leader Vyacheslav Chornovil • businessman and parliament Deputy Yevhen Shcherban

Kuchmaism began in Ukraine in 1994

Prominent politicians, parliamentarians, journalists -- some died in strange road accidents, others were assassinated, and others seemingly took their own lives.

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AGENT ORANGE DINNER The poisoning of presidential candidate Victor Yushchenko

July 2004: VY was vacationing in Crimea, Putin was speaking in a forum where he accused Western secret services of interference with Russia’s plans to integrate with Ukraine Aug 2004: Presidential campaign started – pro-Russian Yanukovych vs. pro-Western Yushchenko 5 Sep 2004: Yushchenko taken to a private clinic in Vienna with back pain, and symptoms of intoxication. Initial diagnosis was gastroenteritis. Ukrainian diagnosis was corrected to acute pancreatitis, atypical skin disease, ottis, and proctolitis. He briefly returned to Ukraine to continue the elections. VY was treated by Dr Korpan. 28 Sep 2004: Nouvellon’s team issued a press release that deliberate poisoning was ruled out 14 Oct 2004: diagnosis of chloracne, most probably dioxin, made from skin biopsy 11 Dec 2004: Doctors in Vienna announce that Yushchenko was poisoned with a dioxin. Feb 2005: dioxin reliably identified as 2,3,7,8-TCDD, finally picked up by the press as poisoning of a presidential candidate

Source: Volodarsky – The KGB’s poison factory

Part I | Part II | Part III | Part IV

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THE ORANGE REVOLUTION (2004)

2004: Yanukovych was presented as Kuchma’s clear successor, and Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin offered support for his candidacy. During the campaign pro-Western Viktor Yushchenko, became ill after an apparent assassination attempt, and the race drew international attention. The results of the first round of the election were inconclusive. In the November runoff Yanukovych was declared the winner, in spite of exit polling that showed Yushchenko with a commanding lead. Yushchenko’s supporters took to the streets by the tens of thousands in a series of protests that were dubbed the Orange Revolution, and the runoff results were overturned by the Ukrainian Supreme Court. In a new runoff held on December 26, 2004, Yanukovych was soundly defeated.

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THE ORANGE REVOLUTION (2004) TIMELINE:

November 22 2004 In Ukraine’s second round election, the Central Electoral Commission declares pro-Russian incumbent Viktor Yanukovich the winner. Viktor Yushchenko, the leader of the opposition decries widespread voter fraud and electoral irregularities.

November 23 2004 An estimated 500,000 protestors assemble in Kiev’s Independence Square.

December 8 2004 Following the Supreme Court’s annulment of the elections, re-run is announced.

December 11 Doctors in Vienna announce that Yushchenko was poisoned with a dioxin.

December 27 2004 victory for Yushchenko. Yanukovich resigns as Prime Minister

January 23 2005 Viktor Yushchenko is sworn in as president. He appoints political ally Yulia Tymoshenko as prime minister. Widespread political and economic reforms are announced.

SPARK: ELECTION FRAUD • Election campaign: various impediments (banished from national TV, road barriers, denied

permission to land, hostile press, mysterious disfiguring sickness blamed on botched botox treatment)

• SBU wiretaps provided crucial evidence of the government's chicanery, including late-night manipulation of data in the CEC's computer server.

• Reason: Corruption (Dnietropetrovsk mafia, Pavlo Lazarenko) • In general, the oligarchs were able to operate their businesses without fear of independent

oversight. • Kuchma tapes spread all over the internet . Channel Five (3% coverage) functioned well;

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NEW UKRAINIAN CLANS

Medvedchuk, who became presidential chief of staff in December 2002, represented the Kiev clan, which controlled regional energy and timber companies and invested in broadcast media. The Kiev clan ran the Social Democratic Party of Ukraine (United).

The Dnipropetrovsk clan, which invested in the energy pipeline industries, included Viktor Pinchuk, now Kuchma's son-in-law. A powerful group from the eastern coal-mining Donbass region included metallurgy baron Rinat Akhmetov, the postcommunist world's second-wealthiest man, with a net worth of $3.5 billion. The Dnipropetrovsk group created and backed the Labor Party.

The Donetsk oligarchs created the Party of Regions, the ranks of which included a local governor who later became prime minister: Yanukovich.

The oligarchs owned or controlled their own national broadcast media and local and national newspapers. Each was capable of massively funding political campaigns in the emerging pseudodemocratic system.

SIGNIFICANCE TO CURRENT GEOPOLITICS • Ukrainian Businessman Arrested in Austria on U.S. International Corruption Conspiracy Charges • Ukraine’s other war – on corruption • FBI to help Ukrainian prosecutors fight corruption • Ukraine, the most corrupt country in Europe (audio)

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Viktor Andriyovych Yushchenko

Sep 2004: dioxin poisoning in an apparent assassination attempt.

Dec 2004 - Jan 2005: Mass protests, the Orange Revolution, followed election fraud. Yushchenko was eventually confirmed as the winner the following month.

May 2005: a fuel crisis

Sep 2005: he replaced his entire cabinet, accusing it of incompetence. A power struggle escalated in early 2007, when parliament passed laws that seriously curtailed Yushchenko’s authority.

September 2007 elections: Yushchenko’s Our Ukraine party finished third, behind Yanukovych’s Party of Regions and the party led by Yuliya Tymoshenko. Alliance with Tymoshenko gave them a large enough majority to form a government with Tymoshenko as prime minister.

January 2010 presidential elections: Yushchenko’s popularity had plummeted, and he received only about 5 percent of the vote.

February 2010: Yanukovych would replace Yushchenko as president.

Born Feb. 23, 1954, Khoruzhivka, Ukr., U.S.S.R. President of Ukraine (2005–10)

Yushchenko graduated from the Ternopil Finance and Economics Institute in 1975. He briefly served in the Soviet army, the Soviet State Bank and in the Agro-Industrial Bank of Ukraine. He was the first deputy chairman of the board at Bank Ukraina (1990) and the governor of Ukraine’s national bank (1993). In 1999 he was appointed prime minister, credited with helping Ukraine emerge from a protracted financial and economic crisis. In 2001 Kuchma abruptly dismissed Yushchenko who in response formed a broad-based democratic coalition called Our Ukraine.

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Viktor Fedorovych Yanukovych

2006: Yanukovych’s Party of Regions won the parliamentary elections, and Yushchenko was compelled to name Yanukovych prime minister. Yanukovych lost that post in 2007 to Yuliya Tymoshenko. In January 2010: Yushchenko was eliminated (5% votes), in second runoff Yanukovych won a narrow victory . International observers found the poll fair, Tymoshenko refused to accept that. April 2010: Black Sea Fleet deal & comment that Great Famine of 1932–33 was not genocide. October 2010: a decision by the Constitutional Court greatly expanded the powers of the presidency. 2011: Tymoshenko was charged with abuse of power and sentenced to 7 years in prison. In 2012 her interior minister Yuri Lutsenko received 4 years; both prosecutions were considered politically motivated. October 2012: the Party of Regions won the parliamentary elections. April 2013: association agreement with the EU. Yanukovych pulled out of the deal, triggering a scramble among EU leaders and sparking a wave of popular protests in Kiev.

Bio: Viktor Yanukovych served as prime minister (2002–05, 2006–07) and president (2010–14) of Ukraine. Yanukovych was born to a poor family in the industrial Donets Basin, and spent some time in jail for rape. In 1969, he worked in heavy industry, rising from mechanic to executive. During that time he attended Donetsk Polytechnic Institute (now Donetsk State Technical University), earning a degree in mechanical engineering (1980); he also joined the Communist Party. The 1990s were a period of uncertainty in the Donetsk region: organized crime was rampant. In 1997 he became governor of Donetsk province. During his time in that post, he earned a law degree from the Ukrainian Academy of Foreign Trade (2000). In 2002 he was appointed a prime minister. Yanukovych, who did not speak Ukrainian prior to his appointment, shared Kuchma’s desire to maintain close ties with Russia.

Born 9 July 1950, Yenakiieve, Ukraine President of Ukraine (Feb 2010 to Feb 2014)

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RUSSIAN-UKRAINIAN PACT (April 2010) BLACK SEA FLEET

Yanukovych agreed to extend until 2047 the basing rights of Russia's Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol, and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev agreed in return to lower the price Ukraine pays for Russian natural gas by 30 percent through 2019.

The parliamentary debate over the agreement devolved into a melee, but the measure narrowly passed. The agreement was pushed through the Rada without regard for transparency or democratic procedure. There was no expert evaluation of the draft in parliamentary committees.

CONCERNS: • The geopolitical implications for Ukraine of basing the Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol

• Loss of informal control of the Crimea, its vital sea-lanes, and the natural gas deposits to Russia.

• The fair rate that Russia should pay in rent for using the base

• long-term rent at $100 million / year is about one-fifth of what experts calculate it should be

• The price Ukraine should pay for Russian gas

• gas prices that will save Ukraine some $1-$3 billion annually for only the next nine years

• The cost to Russia of transporting gas through Ukraine's pipelines

• below-market gas transit fees

The deal's passage unleashed a riot in the Rada, complete with egg throwing and smoke bombs. Yanukovych's subsequent negotiations with Russia over closer cooperation on aviation, nuclear energy, transportation, and gas transit have led to protests across Ukraine.

Source: Foreign Affairs

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BLACK SEA FLEET

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EUROMAIDAN October 2012: Yanukovich’s Party of Regions won the largest share of seats in parliamentary elections, and most observers characterized the polling as relatively free and fair. Release of Lutsenko ordered in advance of the signing of an association agreement with the European Union.

Just days before that treaty was to be signed in November 2013, Yanukovych pulled out of the deal, triggering a scramble among EU leaders and sparking a wave of popular protests in Kiev. • Putin pledged billions in financial assistance as the demonstrations in Kiev’s Maidan continued

• Yanukovych enacted a series of anti-protest measures that were repealed by the parliament after two demonstrators were killed in clashes with police in January 2014.

• Protests spread to eastern Ukraine and violence in the Maidan escalated dramatically.

• More than 70 people were killed in clashes with police and security forces in February 2014

• The parliament voted to impeach Yanukovych on February 22; he responded by denouncing the action as a coup and fleeing the capital. Protesters entered Yanukovych’s opulent residence outside Kiev, and Ukraine’s interim government issued a warrant for his arrest on charges of mass murder.

• On February 28 Yanukovych reappeared in Rostov-na-Donu, Russia, where he delivered a speech that decried members of the acting Ukrainian government as fascists.

• Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk accused Yanukovych and his associates of embezzling some $70 billion in state assets and transferring the funds to foreign banks.

• Authorities in Switzerland, Austria, and Liechtenstein moved to freeze assets and accounts linked to Yanukovych’s family, and prosecutors in Geneva opened a money-laundering investigation. Yanukovych himself denied the existence of any foreign accounts.

• In January 2015 Interpol placed the deposed leader on its wanted list in connection with those charges.

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EUROMAIDAN DEC 2013 - JAN 2014

17 December: Vladimir Putin throws President Yanukovych an economic lifeline, agreeing to buy $15bn of Ukrainian debt and reduce the price of Russian gas supplies by about a third.

16-23 January: Parliament passes restrictive anti-protest laws as clashes turn deadly. Protesters begin storming regional government offices in western Ukraine.

28-29 January: Prime Minister Mykola Azarov resigns and parliament annuls the anti-protest law. Parliament passes amnesty bill but opposition rejects conditions.

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EUROMAIDAN FEB 2014 14-16 February: All 234 protesters arrested since December are released. Kiev city hall, occupied since 1 December, is abandoned by demonstrators, along with other public buildings in regions.

18 February: Clashes erupt, with reasons unclear: 18 dead.

20 February: Kiev sees its worst day of violence for almost 70 years. At least 88 people are killed in 48 hours. Video shows uniformed snipers firing at protesters holding makeshift shields.

21 February: President Yanukovych signs compromise deal with opposition leaders.

22 February: President Yanukovych disappears. Protesters take control of presidential administration buildings Parliament votes to remove president from power with elections set for 25 May. Mr Yanukovych appears on TV to denounce "coup“. His arch-rival Yulia Tymoshenko is freed from jail.

23-26 February: Parliament votes to ban Russian as the second official language, causing a wave of anger in Russian-speaking regions; the vote is later overturned Parliament names speaker Olexander Turchynov as interim president. An arrest warrant is issued for Mr Yanukovych. Arseniy Yatsenyuk is nominated prime minister. The elite Berkut police unit, blamed for deaths of protesters, is disbanded.

27-28 February: Pro-Russian gunmen seize key buildings in the Crimean capital, Simferopol. Unidentified gunmen in combat uniforms appear outside Crimea's main airports.

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CRIMEA – DON/LUG - POROSHENKO

1 March: Russia's parliament approves President Vladimir Putin's request to use force in Ukraine to protect Russian interests.

16 March: Crimea's secession referendum on joining Russia is backed by 97% of voters, organizers say, but vote condemned by West as a sham.

17 March: The EU and US impose travel bans and asset freezes on several officials from Russia and Ukraine over the Crimea referendum.

18 March: President Putin signs a bill to absorb Crimea into the Russian Federation.

28 March: US President Barack Obama urges Moscow to "move back its troops" and lower tensions.

15 April: Ukraine's acting President, Olexander Turchynov, announces the start of an "anti-terrorist operation" against pro-Russian separatists. It quickly stalls.

17 April: Russia, Ukraine, the US and the EU say they have agreed at talks in Geneva on steps to "de-escalate" the crisis in eastern Ukraine. Three people are killed when Ukrainian security forces fend off a raid on a base in Mariupol - the first violent deaths in the east.

22 April: Ukraine's acting president orders the re-launch of military operations against pro-Russian militants in the east.

11 May: Pro-Russian separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk declare independence after unrecognized referendums.

2 May: Clashes in the Black Sea city of Odessa, leave 42 people dead, most of them pro-Russian activists. Most die when they are trapped in a burning building.

25 May: Ukraine elects Petro Poroshenko as president in an election not held in much of the east.

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THE DOWNING OF MH17

14 June: Pro-Russia separatists shoot down a military plane in the east, killing 49 people.

25 June: Russia's parliament cancels a parliamentary resolution authorizing the use of Russian forces in Ukraine.

27 June: The EU signs a landmark association agreement with Ukraine.

5 July: Rebels abandon their command centre at Sloviansk in the face of a government offensive.

17 July: Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 from Amsterdam is shot down near the village of Grabove in rebel-held territory, with the loss of 298 lives.

30 July: The EU and US announce new sanctions against Russia.

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THE BATTLE IN THE DONBASS SUMMER 2014

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THE BATTLE IN THE DONBASS

22 August: A huge Russian convoy delivers humanitarian aid to Lhansk without Ukrainian permission.

26 August: Ukraine releases videos of captured Russian paratroopers, later exchanged for Ukrainian soldiers.

27-28 August: Rebel leader Alexander Zakharchenko says there are 3-4,000 Russian civilians in rebel ranks as the separatists open up a front on the Sea of Azov and capture Novoazovsk.

1 September: Ukraine says 700 of its men have been taken prisoner as pro-Russian rebels advance in the east.

5 September: MINSK I The rebels, Ukraine, Russia and the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe sign a peace deal in Minsk, Belarus

9 September: Dutch experts find that Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 broke up in mid-air after being hit by "objects" that "pierced the plane at high velocity" in July.

24 September: NATO reports a "significant" withdrawal of Russian troops from eastern Ukraine.

12 October: Putin orders thousands of troops stationed near the Ukrainian border to return to their bases.

21 October: Human Rights Watch says it has strong evidence Ukraine attacked populated areas of Donetsk with cluster bombs, banned by many other states.

26 October: Pro-Western parties win Ukraine's parliamentary elections.

31 October: Russia agrees to resume gas supplies to Ukraine over the winter in a deal brokered by the EU. Russia's gas fight with Ukraine

2-3 November: Separatists in eastern Ukraine elect new leaders in polls backed by Russia and denounced by the West. President Poroshenko accuses the rebels of jeopardizing "the entire peace process“.

11 November: Dutch efforts to salvage wreckage from the Malaysia Airlines crash site stall

12 November: NATO commander Gen Philip Breedlove says Russian military equipment and Russian combat troops have been seen entering Ukraine in columns over several days.

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Petro Oleksiyovych Poroshenko born September 26, 1965, Bolhrad, Ukraine, U.S.S.R. (now in Ukraine), President of Ukraine (2014 - )

May 25, 2014: Poroshenko coasted to a landslide victory, easily topping Yuliya Tymoshenko. In spite of overwhelming evidence of Russian military involvement in Ukraine, Putin denied any role in the conflict. Summer 2014: offensive drastically reduced the area under rebel control September 2014: Poroshenko agreed to a cease-fire that was frequently tested by both sides. October 2014: in parliamentary elections pro-Western parties claimed victory. December 2014: Ukraine dropped its non-aligned status, pledged to work toward NATO membership January 2015: Fighting intensified during a rebel offensive, hundreds of civilians were killed in a few weeks. February 2015: MINSK II - French Pres. François Hollande and German Chancellor Angela Merkel Poroshenko, Putin, Hollande, and Merkel outlined a 12-point agreement that would bring an end to fighting in the east.

Bio: Poroshenko was raised near the Moldovan border. He studied law, international relations and international economics in Kiev at Taras Shevchenko National University. In 1993 he became CEO of Ukprominvest, and in 1996 he founded Roshen, a confectionery manufacturer. In 1998 he was elected to the Ukrainian parliament representing Vinnytsya as a Social Democrat in Kuchma’s government.

Poroshenko founded the Solidarity party in 2000 before helping to establish the Russophile Party of Regions. He switched his allegiance to the Our Ukraine party of Viktor Yushchenko in 2001 and was named head of the parliamentary budget committee. In 2005 Poroshenko was appointed national security secretary in Yushchenko’s cabinet (reshuffled 7 months later). 2006-7 he headed the finance committee, 2009–10 served as foreign minister. In 2012 Poroshenko resumed his affiliation with the Party of Regions, when he became minister of trade in Yanukovich’s cabinet. After 2012 legislative elections Poroshenko returned to the parliament, where he co-chaired the committee on cooperation with the European Union.

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AREAS UNDER REBEL CONTROL

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MINSK II (11 February 2015)

Parties: Russian President Vladimir Putin, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, French President Francois Hollande and German Chancellor Angela Merkel. A previous Minsk ceasefire deal collapsed within days of its signing on 5 September. And there was heavy fighting just hours before this one, between the Ukrainian army and pro-Russian rebels controlling a big swathe of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

1. Immediate and full bilateral ceasefire

• To take effect in parts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, from 00:00 local time on 15 February (22:00 GMT on 14 February).

2. Withdrawal of all heavy weapons by both sides

• To equal distances to create a buffer zone of: at least 50km (30 miles) separating both sides for artillery systems of 100mm caliber or more; 70km for multiple rocket systems and 140km for the heaviest rocket and missile systems such as Tornado, Uragan, Smerch and Tochka.

• Ukrainian troops to withdraw heavy weapons from the current frontline.

• Separatist forces to withdraw theirs from the line of 19 September 2014.

• Heavy weapons withdrawal must start no later than day two of the ceasefire and be completed within two weeks. The OSCE security body will assist in the process.

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MINSK II (11 February 2015)

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DEVELOPMENT AFTER MINSK II

• Clashes over Debaltseve continue • Boris Nemtsov assassinated in Moscow • Stopgap gas deal between Ukraine and Russia • Ukraine, Russia agreed to double OSCE monitoring mission • IMF approves $17.5 bn to help Ukraine • Rumors around Putin’s absence • Russia makes clear that Crimea is non-negotiable vs. Poroshenko: Crimea is still Ukraine • Ukraine to end gas deliveries from Russia • Oligarch Kolomoisky fired from government • US training in Ukraine announced • Interim gas agreement • Poroshenko gives approval to federalization • Creditors misunderstand Ukraine’s financial distress • G7 foreign ministers discuss Ukraine crisis • US troops start training Ukrainian infantry • Gazprom: Ukraine owes for gas • More Russian military presence on the border • EU, NATO announce joint efforts to counter hybrid warfare • Ukraine bans Soviet symbols • Mobile crematoriums deployed by Russia to conceal own casualties, peacetime deaths

declared state secret • Violence flares up in Eastern Ukraine again • Poroshenko warns of full-scale Russian invasion

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DEVELOPMENT AFTER MINSK II

Withdrawal from Debaltseve Despite the ceasefire, heavy fighting continues around Debaltseve with rebel forces pressing to capture the strategically important road and rail hub, to join up territory held in Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

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June 4, 2015

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HISTORICAL LEGACY & FUTURE OPTIONS

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