Anticipate and Adapt

The World is

Changing:

Anticipate and

Adapt

KPMG Global Defense

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■ Demographics

■ Rise of the individual

■ Enabling technology

■ Economic

interconnectedness

■ Public debt

■ Economic power shift

■ Climate change

■ Resource stress

■ Urbanization

Megatrends changing our future world



Key risks to Defense

Increased risk to

borders

Increased frequency

and scale of cyber

attacksIncreased risk of

terror threats

and attacks

CHANGING

NATURE

OF

CONFLICTS

Increased risk of

internal and

interstate conflicts

Defense will be required

to innovate and reform its

approach to security to respond

effectively to both anticipated

and inconceivable threats.

CIVIL SECURITY

RESOURCE SECURITY

CYBER SECURITY

BORDER SECURITY

SECURITY



Defense will be more susceptible to cyber attacks than ever before

as disruptive technologies evolve and the value of big data grows.

Defense will need to grow their capability to

protect their nation and their own operations

from the potentially disabling impacts of

cyber attacks.

The command and control of most forces, the intelligence and

logistics on which they depend, and their weapons technologies,

all depend on computer systems and networks.William J. Lynn III, US Deputy Defense Secretary

Already, cyber attacks account for USD300

Billion to USD1 Trillion in global losses. $

Cyber weapons are in their infancy and are expected to rapidly

evolve over the next decade, review of policy at the executive

levels of government will be required to address this relatively

new dimension of warfare.

Source: SDI, “Global Cyber Security Market 2014 – 2024”

Source: SDI, “Global Cyber Security Market 2014 – 2024”

Greater use of commercial wireless technology decreases cyber

security effectiveness, as the number of nodes to be monitored in

critical infrastructure and military networks expands.



The future scale of war is unimaginable, given that even now

disruptive technologies and virtual networks broaden the exposure

and response to conflicts beyond sovereign borders.

Defense will need to redefine the borders it

protects to include both physical and virtual

worlds, requiring a revolution to our current

view of Defense and its war fighting capability.

As conflict in the cyber arena increases, critical infrastructure

becomes exposed to threats from both enemy states and non-

state actors in a new manner. Cyber attacks transcend borders,

infiltrating nuclear power plants or disrupting financial systems.

Social media has

accelerated recent

uprisings in the developing

world, playing a role in

three main dynamics:

Organizing protests

Shaping the narrative

Putting pressure on the

international community

Terror organizations are currently using websites and popular

social media channels to recruit and gather intelligence.

Conflict over resources and oversized populations of unemployed

youth will drive increased civil unrest and will necessitate

continued focus on traditional sovereign border protection.



Contention over resources is anticipated to increase the threat of

internal and interstate conflicts and will necessitate a greater focus

on border and resource security measures.

Multinational Defense structures and forces will

be required to protect the long term sustainability

of key resources before they reach critical levels,

provoking interstate disputes.

The world’s major belt of water stress lies across northern Africa,

the Middle East, central and southern Asia, and northern China -

this is also the zone of the largest projected population growth

during the next 15-20 years.



The power of network enabling technologies cannot be understated

as it provides individuals with disproportionate power and arms them

with the capability to threaten an entire nation or global community.

EUROPE on high alert, making use of all available forces with

up to 300 soldiers mobilized in Brussels, Antwerp and

elsewhere.

BELGIUM DEPLOYS TROOPS FOLLOWING ANTI-TERROR RAID

BBC News Europe, 17 January 2015

AUSTRALIANS can expect greater security at airports,

large public events, government buildings and ports as the

government has raised the public alert of a terror threat to

‘high’ for the first time in history.

TONY ABBOTT RAISES AUSTRALIA’S TERROR THREAT TO HIGH

News.com.au, 12 September 2014

A PROMINENT feature of many terrorist attacks in recent

months is their independent, spontaneous, unplanned nature –

sometimes called the work of lone wolves.

CONFRONTING SPONTANEOUS TERRORIST ATTACKS

Canada Free Press, 24 February 2015

Defense will be more involved in civil security

as threatening individuals or groups leverage

network enabling technologies to become

internationally integrated global organizations.



Defense

preparedness and

capability is at risk of

falling behind as the

nature of future

conflicts, key players

and accessible

instruments of war

evolve at a rapid

pace.



Defense must consider how their organization’s skills and

capabilities need to adapt to be ready to fight in anticipated future

conflicts and respond to inconceivable threats.

VISION

Strategy

Flexibility and “paradigm” thinking

Outcomes and metrics

Long-term planning and scenario exercises

Behavioural insights

Technology adoption

Skills & capability

Effective stakeholder engagement

Systems thinking

International awareness

Financial sophistication

Risk assessment and change management

Structures & systems

Networked

Locally empowered

Internationally integrated

Highly integrated

Flexible and adaptive



Focus areas for Defense

Strategy

Flexibility and “paradigm” thinking

Outcomes and metrics

Long-term planning and scenario exercises

Behavioural insights

Technology adoption

Grow cyber warfare attack and

defense skills and capability.

Drive multinational knowledge

sharing and alignment of policy and

governance to identify and eliminate

cyber threats.

Develop a cyber security strategy to

protect Defense capability and

national infrastructure from network

or system threats.




CYBER SECURITY

Structures & systems

Networked

Locally empowered

Internationally integrated

Highly integrated

Flexible and adaptive

Drive multinational collaboration to

identify and manage global risks and

threats.

Understand multinational capability to

respond to global risks and threats.

Drive multinational alignment of policy

and governance to ensure a common

approach to the mitigation and

elimination of global risks and threats.




Skills & capability


Systems thinking




Grow capability while managing

within a constrained budget.

Consider alternative and non-

traditional procurement models (e.g.

outsourcing, joint venture, shared

ownership, leasing).

Procure modular and flexible

capability that can be integrated with

existing and future technology.





Systems thinking




Develop a multi-dimensional,

strategic planning capability that

considers global interdependencies.

Understand the local and global

unintended and intended

consequences of actions through

scenario analysis techniques.

Adopt a systems thinking culture that

appreciates the full extent to which

global interconnectedness impacts

Defense and its operations. Skills & capability



Let us share our global Defense experience with you.

Contact us.

Ken Drover

Lead Partner

Global Defense

+61 3 9288 6623

[email protected]

Contact:

mailto:[email protected]

© 2015 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent

firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services.

The KPMG name, logo and “cutting through complexity” are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International.

The information contained herein is of a general nature and is not intended to address the circumstances of any particular individual

or entity. Although we endeavour to provide accurate and timely information, there can be no guarantee that such information is

accurate as of the date it is received or that it will continue to be accurate in the future. No one should act on such information

without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of the particular situation.

Publication Name: The World is Changing: Anticipate and Adapt

Date: March 2015

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Anticipate and Adapt