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Analysis and Mapping of Impacts
under Climate Change for Adaptation
and Food Security (AMICAF)
1st
phase (2012-2015) and 2nd
phase (2015-2018 Feb)
Hiroki SASAKIClimate and Environment Division, FAO
Agenda
1. Overview of AMICAF
2. Launching AMICAF 2nd phase
3. Activities in the Project
4. AMICAF’s added value
5. Timeline
1. Overview of AMICAF
What is AMICAF?
Analysis and Mapping of Impacts under Climate Change for Adaptation and Food Security (AMICAF)
Trust Fund Project, funded by Japan
AMICAF 1st phase- November 2011 to March 2015
Participated countries in the 1st phase: The Philippines and Peru
AMICAF 2nd phase (South-South Cooperation) , three years project
Project Background
APEC Ministerial Meeting on Food Security
(October 2010, Niigata, Japan)
Included in Action Plan:
33: “Hold workshop to disseminate feasible adaptation and mitigation measures identified by the food security mapping system incorporating climate change factorable data”.
Japan funded FAO project: AMICAF
Objectives
Filling the Climate Change ‘Knowledge’ Gap towards Strategic Response to Climate Change
By collecting and analyzing data on rainfall, temperature, water discharge from streams as well as crop, hydrology and economic modelling, the project enables governments to make evidence-based climate change adaptation planning.
AMICAF try to bridge climate change impact assessment, food insecurity vulnerability analysis and livelihood adaptation approaches.
2. Launching 2nd
phase
AMICAF 2nd
phase-
(AMICAF-SSC)
The Donor (Japan) decided to support a new project in two more countries, one in Asia and one in Latin America, utilizing SSC scheme.
Project Period: Oct 2014 – Feb 2018
Total Approved Budget: US$ 1,243,126
AMICAF structure
(1st
phase and 2nd
phase)
Component 1:
Impacts Analysis of Climate Change on
Agriculture
Component 2:
Food Insecurity Vulnerability Analysis
at household level
Component 3:
Enhance Community Capacities to Adapt
Climate Change
Component 4: Policy
and Planning Support
AMICAF-SSC (Indonesia and Paraguay)
Guidance materials for promoting the AMICAF approach in other countries
South-South Cooperation from AMICAF 1
country
Only in Asian countries
Only in Asian countries
Progress in 2015
Discussion with Minister and Vice Minister in August 2015,
Asuncion, Paraguay
Inception workshop in November 2015, Jakarta, Indonesia
Scoping mission and selection of two recipient countries (Indonesia and Paraguay)
Progress in 2016
Inception meeting in Nov 2016, Asuncion, Paraguay Component 2 training in July 2016, Bogor, Indonesia
Several trainings in Indonesia
Kick-off meeting, technical meeting, workshop
Component 2 SSC workshop with Pilipino experts in September 2016, Bogor, Indonesia AMICAF/MOSAICC workshop with experts from Peru, Uruguay,
Guatemala, and Colombia in Dec 2016, Asuncion, Paraguay
3. Activities in the Project
Component 1 :
Impacts of Climate Change
on Agriculture
Nation-wide assessment of projected impacts of climate change on agriculture
at the sub-national scale
MOSAICC(MOdelling System for Agricultural
Impacts of Climate Change)
Statistical climate
downscaling modelsHistorical weather
observations
Downscaled climate projections
Hydrological modelCrop growth
simulation models
GCM low resolution
climate projections
Historical discharge
records
Water availability
for irrigation
Historical water
use statisticsHistorical yield data
Yield projections
Crop parameters
Soil data
Technology trend
scenarios
Soil and land use data
Dam data
Food insecurity vulnerability analysis (Component2)
Climate Change Impact
Analysis(Component1)
Are some regions more affected than other regions by temperature increase or precipitation increase/decrease?
Are some regions more affected than other regions by productivity changes?
Are some regions more affected than other regions by river flow changes?
Contribute to Policy
Questions on Climate
Impact
% change in precipitation (A1B, BCM2 model) from 1971-1999 to 2011-2040
BCM2 A1B and A2 Tmin projections aggregated to 79 provinces (2011 - 2040 mean)
• Climate change makes differentiated impacts on provincial yield; some positive; others negative
• Yields in rain fed areas will be more negatively affected than irrigated areas, both in the A1B and A2 scenarios at the BCM2 and CNCM3 climate models
Rainfed rice yield change 2011-2040 vs 1971-2000
Water balance PREC-PET (map) and Discharge (box plots) for 3 GCMs x 2 emission scenarios
2011-2040
Changes in discharge by season and agreement among 3 GCMs x 2 emission scenarios
2011-2040 vs 1971-2000
Component 2:
Food Insecurity
Vulnerability Analysis
Characterizing vulnerability to food insecurity under climate change, and identifying variables associated with
highest levels of vulnerability
Connecting Component 1 and 2
Component 1 :
Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture
Component 2:
Food Insecurity Vulnerability Analysis
Are some regions more affected than other regions in terms of food security?
Should we allocate more resources to help more vulnerable regions to adapt to climate change?
Contribute to Policy
Questions: vulnerability to
food insecurity under
climate change
Projected Propensity to Experience Hunger
(Philippines)
Present Future
Component 3:
Enhance Community
Capacities to Adapt
Climate Change
Link impact assessments and vulnerability analysis with adaptation
actions on the ground
Typhoon tracking by FFS participants
Fabricating manual rain gauge Varietal evaluation during Field Day
Component 3 Livelihood Adaptation to
Climate Change:
Climate-smart Farmer Field School
Community hazard assessment
• Organize Farmer Field School (FFS) Workshop on CC adaptation management in Indonesia as SSC scheme
Assess current management practice in target communities (take into consider existing initiatives) + FAO projects in the past
Farmer Field School
Component 4:
Policy and Planning
Support
A workshop to review component 1 to 3 toward evidence-based policy planning
4. AMICAF’s added value
What is added value for
Recipient Countries ?
Capacity development of country’s experts is a focus
In the end, experts produce evidence-base of climate change impacts and vulnerability using their own data
Final outcome of AMICAF
Policy briefs for each country (10-15 pages)
It also intends to share the knowledge, techniques and experiences obtained in the projects through technical guidance materials.
Technical reports for each component/sub-component
The Philippines, Peru, Indonesia and Paraguay
