Adopt: adoption and diffusion outcome prediction tool. Geoff Kuehne

Geoff Kuehne (CSIRO) Rick Llewellyn (CSIRO)Perry Dolling (DAFWA) David Pannell (UWA)Roger Wilkinson (VicDPI) Mike Ewing (CRC FFI)

ADOPT: Adoption and Diffusion Outcome Prediction Tool.

• Producing a tool and process to predict likely rate and level of adoption for specific practices

• A tool to help inform R,D & E strategies

• Making adoption and diffusion considerations more available, understandable and applicable

Aims

Inform

Engage

Predict




Aims

Inform

Engage

Predict




Aims

Inform

Engage

Predict

What’s wanted

Ongoing demand

Past attempts –

nothing or guesswork

What’s wanted

The Literature

The Literature

Rogers (2003)

Feder & Umali (1993)

Lindner (1987)

Pannell et al. (2006)

Grilliches (1957)

POPULATION

Relative Advantage for the Population

Population-specific influences on the ability to learn about the Innovation

Learnability Characteristics of the Innovation

Relative Advantage of the Innovation

INNOVATION

Relative Advantage for the population

Population-specific influences on the ability to Learn about the innovation

Learnability characteristics of the innovation

Relative Advantage of the innovation LE

ARN

ING

RELATIVE ADVAN

TAGE

Importance of RA


Conceptual Framework

Learning of Relative Advantage

Time to Peak Adoption

Relative Advantage

Peak Adoption Level




11.Group involvement

10. Advisory support

12. Relevant existing skills and knowledge



Trialability of Innovation

8. Innovation complexity

7. Trialing ease

13. Innovation awareness

Relative Advantage

Peak Adoption Level

22. Ease & convenience

• Ease & Convenience











7. Trialing ease


Relative Advantage

Peak Adoption Level

22. Ease & convenience

• Risk

• Risk Orientation

21. Risk

3. Risk orientation













7. Trialing ease


Relative Advantage

Peak Adoption Level

20. Time for environmental benefits to be realised

19. Environment

22. Ease & convenience 21. Risk

• Environment

• Time for environmental benefits to be realised

• Environmental orientation

2. Environmental orientation

3. Risk orientation


Conceptual FrameworkRelative Advantage for the Population









7. Trialing ease

9. Observability


Relative Advantage

Peak Adoption Level

3. Risk orientation

4. Enterprise scale

5. Family succession & management horizon

1. Profit orientation

6. Short-term constraints


17. Time for profit benefits to be realised


19. Environment


16. Profit in years used

18. Profit in Future

• Profit in year used

• Profit in future

• Profit Orientation

• Enterprise scale

• Management Horizon

• Time for Profit benefits to be realised







Networks





7. Trialing ease


Relative Advantage

Peak Adoption Level

14. Relative upfront cost of innovation

15. Reversibility of innovation

3. Risk orientation

4. Enterprise scale







19. Environment


16. Profit in years usedInvestment cost


• Relative upfront cost of innovation

• Reversibility of innovation




Learnability Characteristics of the Innovation Relative

Advantage of the Innovation




Networks

Farmers networks & skills





7. Trialing ease

9. Observability


Relative Advantage

Peak Adoption Level



3. Risk orientation

4. Enterprise scale







19. Environment




Need:

• Consistency

• Direction of relationship

• Data requirements

• Strong influence

• Age – inconsistent

• Education – too hard









Networks






7. Trialing ease

9. Observability


Relative Advantage

Peak Adoption Level



3. Risk orientation

4. Enterprise scale







19. Environment












Networks






7. Trialing ease

9. Observability


Relative Advantage

Peak Adoption Level



3. Risk orientation

4. Enterprise scale







19. Environment




Example questions

Example entry page

Example entry page

Example entry page

Response choices

Question explanation page

Example equation

Identify relationships

= (varTrialable * weiTrialable +

varInnovationComplexity *

weiInnovationComplexity)/2

Formula for Trialability of Innovation

Profit Advantage =(((varProfitBenefitNow*weiProfitBenefitNow)*(varEnterpriseScale*weiEnterpriseScale)/5)+(1/8*(varProfitBenefitLater*weiProfitBenefitLater)*(varEnterpriseScale*weiEnterpriseScale)*(1/(POWER((1+(varManagementHorizonDiscountFactor)),(varTimetoProfitBenefitYears))))/4.761904762*8))/2

Relative Advantage=(((((varProfitOrientation * weiProfitOrientation)* (varProfitAdvantage * weiProfitAdvantage)))+ ((varRiskOrientation * weiRiskOrientation)/5* (varRiskEffect * weiRiskEffect))+ (varEaseConvenience * weiEaseConvenience)+ (varEnvironmentalAdvantage * weiEnvironmentalAdvantage))- ((varInvestmentCosts*weiInvestmentCosts)*-1+5))/10

Investment Costs =(varUpfrontCosts * weiUpfrontCosts + varReversibility * weiReversibility)/2

FNSK=(=varA+varBOne*(varRESK*weiRESK)+varBTwo*(varNetworks*weiNetworks)+varBThree*(varRESK*weiRESK)*(varNetworks*weiNetworks)

IAwareness=varA+varBOne*(varAwareness*weiAwareness)+varBTwo*(varObservability*weiObservability)+varBThree*(varAwareness*weiAwareness)*(varObservability*weiObservability)

Trialability=(varTrialable * weiTrialable + varInnovationComplexity * weiInnovationComplexity)/2

Learning of RA=((weiTrialabilityInnovation*varTrialabilityInnovation)+(weiFarmersNetworksSkills*varFarmersNetworksSkills)+(weiRelativeAdvantage*varRelativeAdvantage))/3

Envirronmental advantage =(varEnvironmentalBenefits * weiEnvironmentalBenefits ) *(varEnvironmentalOrientation *weiEnvironmentalOrientation)*(1/(POWER((1+(varEnvironmentalCostsBenefitsDiscount)),(varTimetoEnvironmentalBenefitsYears))))/4.761904762

Networks =MIN((varGroupInvolvement*weiGroupInvolvement)+( varAdvisorySupport*weiAdvisorySupport),5)

Peak Adoption=varBaseRate+(varMaxRate-varBaseRate)/(1+EXP(-((varRelativeAdvantage*weiRelativeAdvantage)*2-5)))

Time to Peak=(=MAX((-(varSlope*(IF((varRelativeAdvantage*weiRelativeAdvantage)<1,1,(varRelativeAdvantage*weiRelativeAdvantage))))+varIntercept)+(IF(varUpfrontCosts=5,0,(IF(varUpfrontCosts=4,IF(varShortTermConstraints>=4,0,(varShortTermConstraints*-1+4)/2),((IF(varShortTermConstraints>=4,0,varShortTermConstraints*-1+4)))))*weiShortTermConstraints)-(IF(varAwarenessScore<=2,0,varAwarenessScore-2)*weiAwarenessScore)), 1)

1. Introduction of narrow-leafed lupins

1981

2. Crop/livestock farmers in the central wheat-belt of Western Australia

Output

Output

Output rate & extent

Output extra data

Output relevant info

Output validation

Wongan Hills

Wyalkatchem

Chapman Valley

Corrigin

Lake Grace

Marsh et al. 2004

The rate of adoption calculated was often really slow—depressing! ... It shows good reasoning why it would be slow ...

User feedback ~ 100 people ~ 35 projectsP

RE

DIC

T


The real value is that it makes you think why we do something – the constraints and leverages.

PR

ED

ICT

INF

OR

MUser feedback ~ 100 people ~ 35 projects


The real value is that it makes you think why we do something – the constraints and leverages.

… responding to the questions made you think, especially about the audience, the social factors and the risk aspects.

PR

ED

ICT

INF

OR

ME

NG

AG

EUser feedback ~ 100 people ~ 35 projects

Future developments



Relative Advantage for the Population


Learnability Characteristics of the Innovation


Difficult to

change

Can be changed by

innovation design

Can be changed by extension effort

Can be changed by

innovation design

Thank You

Geoff Kuehne (CSIRO), Rick Llewellyn (CSIRO)Perry Dolling (DAFWA), David Pannell (UWA)Roger Wilkinson (VicDPI), Mike Ewing (CRC FFI)