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b'lil~'YI 1.1.2 "l~'1Unl'H'll'llill;Ji'ibbi1~m'l1bm1~111m'l\ll'1ilm••1mml;Ji1.
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b"iil~n 1.3.2 •m1i'1'1bbi1~111ifnm'l'llil,m"l{i'1m'lm'lli11buu,1u
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(3)
(9)
(11)
1-1
1-4
1-5
1-6
1-9
1-10
1-16
1-17
1-25
1-27
1-30
1-33
1-37
1-41
2-1
2-4
2-6
2-10
2-22
2-34
2-47
2-49
2-52
1 ~ ~ ' ' <11U b'JJ'li1J'VJ'i1bb1'L.
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b4m~ 3.1.1 l\n1'!'ru:;,;\'11ti'li1l''Vl'l1'1'5m1o/1111!1uh
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b41l,~ 4.1.3 o/11bblJlJ 1t11bm'il.lbUl'V1mmblJlJ Preemptive '
'i11lUfi 4.2 b'Vl'i1U'i1 AHP ....................... . ' ' '
b'j'.1l,Yl 4.2.1 bbU1?1imfimnrn'Vl'i1U'i1 AHP ...
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b~il~Yi 5.1.4 m1'lbm1:::Vibfl~il'li1m1Ubb1J1J Maximum F1ow.
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' ' b~il~Yi 5.2.4 m1'lbm1:::Vibfl~il'li1tmUbb1J1J PERT ....
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4-47
4-49
5-1
5-4
5-6
5-8
5-14
5-18
5-25
5-27
5-29
5-41
5-46
5-55
5-56
5-59
5-65
5-71
5-72
6-1
6-3
6-5
6-14
6-21
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,4€1,~ 7.2.2 m1tl1'rn~tJrn~ni"ttlbuub:;ltm b4il,~ 7.2.3 Double Exponential Smoothing .......................... .
b4il,~ 7.2.4 Double Exponential Smoothing: Holt's Two-Parameter
(7)
6-33
6-34
6-37
6-42
6-46
6-59
6-61
7-1
7-4
7-5
7-8
7-11
7-15
7-17
7-23
7-29
A A V
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7-36
7-41
7-45
7-60
7-61
7-64
7-66
7-68
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fi'JmW'llil'1n11'5'iilnTm11~1•uu.:11u
1111ilm1ffu•111'1 ,fiil 'l-ii'l:um•<ii iilflu h1111'1l'n' Liil tm1'lii11i !li;J11mrni:ll!J11111111!l Lilmf!
~!ll'Jbniil~Ul-11 L~ tJU 'l t1'€1~l 'U~U Lb'IJ'IJ'iJil'1ff l-lm11111'1'ilrn'ilf11ff'il~ L1tJn11 <if 1 Lb'IJ'IJ LLii'1 •
~1 • u un l'l1111 '11'il !l'LI'Jl n<if 1 LL'IJ uii u ,,_, o ""' A V o "" o
3. mo'Jiilm'>m1iillL'UU'11U 111mtJrn m1f\11'11:;uum1\il1LUU'1lULL11:;mu1tJm11:;uu
LYlil 'l t1u11~1'iliiu-,:;ff'1'1'll!l'1 m.lm-, .11 tJm•l'i1 'l i1Lniili;J!l'11 L~l-l\J'1fliil
b~EJ0nmVlibl'.I~ 1 "J1Jbbfl1 ii:n0rn;-1'11m111
1. EJ1im tJm1:J.1i1t:J.Jv:ii1:fi'.1::wi1~rn1i b'111::~ •'ll~mmnm<i::rnd<l \11rn1rn1'11•uu~1u1~ 2. EJ1iu1tJ1'\11mJ'l::fi~fi'llEJ~rn1'l•m1::~b'll~1i~mrubb<i::n1'lu1~1bbuu'llEJ~rn1'lbm1::~•'ll~
" mmrn111Ht~
3 . Elllm l'.I VI ii n rn'lftl ff tlJ'll El~ rn 'l~ \11 rn1rn 'l '11 bu u~ 11-lbb<i ::rn'lu 1 VI ii n fll'l'll El~ rn'l~ \11 m1
m1'11•uu~m1111-ifl~
Hu1i\l~'l.l0~011'11fl11~'tf 1~~minru1uo11~~011011~11uu~1u
d .J bdil.J1'1 1.1.2
..., ..., ,;' 21 ..., ..., " = m1:J.Ji1:J.JYmTI'lleJ-J'llill;Jiln1Jm1'\l\llm1m1\ll1Luu.J1u
1:;(ifum11ii1ll;Jil Lm:;mil ••rn:;Vim1~\illlu h'V1n4i1ll;Jil
1. 1u11nn'Vm1:J.J1111eJ11n~u\llilU'llil.Jm1-if "1m"lm1\ii1 •iiu.J1u ~u -il1 d'.iui1f il.Jl14iill;Jilmt~m Yiu1\il tJ\llileJ\il L u11n~u\lleJU'llil.Jm1\ii1 •iiu.J1u m"l1~m~.J4iili;Jil m1'l•m1:;Vi4iill;Jil~ 1~m ui\'1u14iill;Jil 1u1 i'lum•~ \illlu h~u i'.lm1:J.Jl11filJ!il!.i1.J ri.J \Ji eJu1:;l\1'lilrnY< bbil:;
i.J1:;l\Y1ilNil'llm1:;1J1Jm1\ii1 Liiu.Jm
2. m-N1uun4iill;Jmviil 1'6'lum1'il\ilm1m"llii11iiu.J1u~um'Vbbtm L~\llll-ltbU1~\ilb'lf.J"l:;1J1J~il ~1ui1'V'if tJ'l.i1•411~.J 1~ miolim;1m~ tJ1n1JiJ'V'if t1\li1.J '1 ~t.i1m 1 '6'1 um"llii1 •ii u.Jm ~1u m:;u1umdlLUil.Ji1rnY< 1~mi 4iili;Jm~mn1Jm:;rnum1\ii1•iiu.J1ubbil:;~u\llilUm"l l.JijU~.JlU'lJ il.Jm1\ii1 b ii 'U.Jl'U bbil:;~lUNil Nll\llYl~~11J~.J L~ bbrl 4f ill;Jil bfl tJ1 n1J Nil Nll\ll
Vl1il Nil'llil.J m1\ii 1 b ii U.Jl'U
b~il$\rn,;1\llilU~ 1.1 'J1Jbbi1'1 ibn$\rn;·1i11m"ln
1. eiilrn tJ<mll-lfll-IYiu~'llil.J4iill-lilfi'1Jm~\ilm1m1\ii1•iiu.J1m~ilri1111u\llmrn$\mn1 Vil~ • 2. iJillJ1tJd:;$11Jm"l lioiiill-liluil:;mil •;;rn:;Vim.,0'11\u L<J'i11n4im-Jil~1lril'Y1U\ilfldli.ifirn~11Vitli'i • •
bri!lun0ni;-1b4~'Vi1,1u1111B'Vi1,1umbbl111u111ii1m1u iin0rn,;1<>Ji:;1IB,n!l,.1m1~tyl'\i1d'JufiB m1~1'bf1 mr\'1mu bbilrn,.1m'l11111lVIU'l rn1U~li1U'Vi1,1u lVf ri 1.l' bbYl m1~~-J1\il,n<i11nfiil-i'J1T;~i(1~ • • • 'llmm<rlm'l1111ei111ii1m1u 1'11<>Ji:;1l1l,lilil'IJ'1uil' 1Vi'n1J111ii11mu 1111u11111l~'1 ·l'rn1~1<>J1n111ii1tJ L'11ilni;-ru::/ • • • mi:;mumTii1,m'ii1''1 'llil'il''flm'l1111B111ii1tJ'm m'l<>Jl5111'1'B'<rlm1~i"1,n<i111Vlliiiiiu iin0ni;-1 <>J:;1lmboii1h'l:;1J'IJm'l~1buu,1u1iilblluilu1'?1 bmi:;tt'n~<>Jti\1-ifm;J11bf1mn1J'lru1Jm'l~1bum1~1'lb'1'l"l:;VI bbl11ii1i:.mm'l'l b'1'l"ll5Vl'1111 oit\ Um'l~1buu,m'iiil111 n<>J:;bii'1li'ldtJ'llUWlli1Ubbill5VIU'l tJ,11-1, 1iii
'l um'l"li{itf~'1u 1i.i11<>Ji:;bllu 1u'll'llilm'l,1UVl':lil 1 u'll'llilli'l:;'\i11uiiu 'l'Jn'1u<>J:;111l'i'.lm'l"1'1i'lu h bbi!i:;l'.im'l 'l-if-ifil:1;Jil'ii1''1 'lum'l"1'1i'iuh b~il"Jl5~1buu,1u11111l 'l-if'll'llil 'lVi'bllulin~ "11mh,b'lfu 1u111it,b-,1
<>Ji:;mm<>J1rn'i1ul:lu11111111mu~ uvi,111it,~ ii' 1i.i b'1tJ111 ri!lu 1u u\>I miinOJ:;1111bbNu~11111l111l'Lim~-if1ll;J ffl1
111111-b~ii Uil ~~1 VIU "Jl51111'1 tJ1'<1VIUl51ll5 h fi1VIU'1ili'll5:1J1lli'll51'Jl5Yl1' bb~'lfl'l b'1'l"ll51'i11<>Ji:; l-if nmb'Yi11 'l fl
<>Jl5"1'1i'1u hrh111u'1nmil1ln<>J1rn'i1u 1Ji briil 1J1-iim;1mb11i:;m'l"1'1i'1u hbb~'ln<>Ji:;~1bUUm'lb,;jil111 ii'11mu ~ U'1Vlm tJ 1 U'll5Vl11,m'lb~U'l'rnm"J"J:;i'.l bVl"Jlll'lruiJ:; 1 w1'Vi1 'l Vi'm'lb~U'l'rn11:;<1j'1 n<>J i:;'Vi1 'l Vi''1m'1b'1~1.lU nmu\>1111~1l'J1111iil 111':liln11i.il'.l bVl"Jll1'l~111i:;"l'1n<>Ji:; 1111Jilil'l'li11~ nmii'1Vlm tJ 1Ji %, e-mi\'v;n~ bii'1~U ii u 1i.i11<>Jnllum1~ll1bll<>J11111l1i.inm~ <>Jl5bUu1Jm':itJubbill5-if 1ll;Jil~11::;11m ~~ b~ m,;11l~<>J:; 1Jlii1m 'l oitl u lilmil'ii 1l 111 b 'Jfub?i mnu 'l Um'l'Vi1,1U'llmil,.,; lll'lVl':iilVIU 'l rn1u%, 'l Un1'l~1 b UUm'liif ,111m l'J'\i111 il,n
m'lblil':ltJ~i:J<>JiJtJii1b-if1 (input) bb~1u1i:1<>JiltJii1b-if1iiu111i:-J1umrn1um'l (process) b,;jil 1VllJi'NilNlllil (out­
put) ililnmli11~1lmm'l '\i1d'Ju~'1::;1lml'.loif m;Jil (data) ~1 bfim1'fu1'1 tJlililil'1 lU'l'Jn~ulililU'llil,m'l'~1 buu,1u
m'l 1iilm'llil,-if 1ll;Jil m'l'l b'1'l"1:;1'i-ifm;J11Yi1Jl~1 bb~1u1-if 1l:1;Jil 1111 oitlum-,"1'1i'1u h l:Jm1~ll1ff qJilu1' ri,'iiil 'lrn1Jn1.,~1buu,1ubbill!m1~'11b~'llmil,.,;m.,
l um-,'Vi1,1u t urf'lU'llmnnif '1m'm1'l~1 bU Ulj'lfl"J bbi'.f 11<>Ji:;l::im-,if '1n1'lll1'l~1buum'l1Ji~ wli V11n'll1'1%,oif ill;Ji!V1':iilm'l 'l-ii-if 1ll;Jil~li.i?\nm<>J'Vi1 l Vi' bn'1m1~ bfttJVl1tJ'iiilnTo~1bUU,1U b'JfU m-,ll{jtf~~1u~ l:lm1l-!<i1'61bitil"1n-ifill;Jil~Li.iY<ilV1':lil li.i'1i'1b"JU 111':l!lm'li1-if1l:1;Jil~l'.im1l-!N'1Y<m'1'1m'1b'1~1lumn m<>J
'Vi1 'l VI i:·m Nlllili'.1'1run1v; 1i.i b-¥1 l'NY<il'iiilm'l111'1,m1~V1,v;1l h'llil' ~.if 'l u11mY<i1'il<JDU~ bUUtJ'1'll11 fll'l q 'll q q
oil 1l l-111 bb~ 1111ii1 tJ,11-1, 1111u ~l11m'lt1l'.ioif ill-I 11mYium 11 bm i:;l:J m'l'l b'1'l1 i:;i.1-if il~il 1Ji 1l u1' n)1,'l111' mi '15\1n11 il' 'I.I 'll 'll 'll
iirni:;li'll5111J Nilft1 b~il' l:Jm1&J 1#1 bmtJiJ.1 bb'll'il u1,mn "1'lil U1,~'Jl5 'l Vfun0ni;-1b~U1#1-11 tJ'6'1flq;'\il 'l u • • m'l'Yi1mrn0nm (case study) 'ii1''1 iiu iin$\ni;-1iin<>J:;li'li:;il1Jn1J-ifil:1;Jil Li.ib-¥1rnv;m'.h' -ifill;Jili'.lm'l-ii'1
bb!J,nuu1~ 111'11lm'l1111-if1l:1;Jil 1Jlmn~1rnnu1~ %,rn1,1um'l'Vi1mrn$\ni;-1,:;?\11111l 1i.in<>Ji:;~un'LI-ifill;Jil~ iin0ni;-11Jil-11 b'lfUb~ tJ1nu 'l u11rnv;m1~ btlu<J':i~'llil~m'l'Vi1,1u iin0nmn<Jl5Y<1J11m'l 1Jil-11%,oif 1l:1;Jil~ t;in11 eN m1Jli'1uilm1l-!l11ff f!! ri, 1 um'l~u1-if m;111 "1'mh1111'l'61 um'l~1 'uum'lbbill!m'l"1 '11'1u h 'l uvm
li"m''iiil111
fll">b".itJu 1 u 'l'll1'l •rn1:;'11 •'B~11'~mrn~ u'il:;1'111 Viiin$lni,y1Y/'<J.Jmm11 oii11ill-161 l Vi d'lu11l-Jilf ~m1rn\i1 • m1rn (forecast) 'llil,11ill-l<i *~iin$lnm'il~b1l1 hm11oii111ll-161 L'Ub'B~flrnn1'Wbb61:;b'B~1J~mrn iiuiiieJmm1n • • • 1'111 Vi1lm;J61~l'.hJ1:;tjn#im •Dub 'B~1fimrnb~il 1Vi~1tJ1um1ii.11Jloiibb61:;<if '1llu he'iu,:;1'111 Vi"i~1Jm"i"11 bU u ~l'Ubli'U 1u il 81, n l.J1:;ll1111l N 61 mi ~iJ-,~ i\111 TI11l'W 1 u<lhum"i "11 bu 'U~ l'U 'JJ il~~"ln'il i'.111il:i;:61~ rll fl 'lJ bb61~i)1 bli'U
ri~i'iil~un1 h'lll'11'J'Ubb61:;'u'l61 ~~OJ:;bliu11eJ:J;J61~ ~u'i11111'~1i'rn ~ 1VibDUbb61~1 oii11eJ:i;:m111ihdbliu bb.ib'li1~u ifo iJJ'WeJ ~u'i1111"i~'\1:;1h~'11JN61rl1b~'iliiieJ~•.iJ1 h~m'JJ1l~<if1b61'Jl'11~'1 11 bn'1m'il1nfi-cirn1l-l L'1'1 1um1
"11 •ftu,1u'JJmeJ~'1m-, *~ 1um'm~\i1fll">Nu'i11111iiieJ'1iJ\i1111~eJ"i'1nn~n,nTil-I ml11~u .~ill Vi •n \i1 N61 • • bliu<lf 1 b61'JJVl~il11ill;J61 l u~uilf~ '1 il'~ u ~u'i111 l~~<i1 •Du' ~iii il' • .iJ1 h1~u u m1"11 • u u~1u 'll il~ il~ '1 fll"ieJ 81~
. . . <V c:g "9 d. #:I. ~ 1~• -1""°""""""
rilN\Jlflftfl!fl!lHl'l11llTl~!'HM'l'I 1.1.1 mn u1Au{)U\llfl\lfl11" 1.1.1 ' ' ' . q t:i 1 #:I. #:I. "9 ""'!
!'lll!'ll1fll1ftfllJlrl'lfJ1J'l'l l l'll'l'll'l'I 1.1 !1M'l'I 1.1.1
i'.1~1nl11111 "m1n~1<1f '1llu h •Duflrn'1l-lli~'llil~ Nu'i11111~~ liil tJfl~~~'~rl1urni'ltJ h~1iJ1"1ll • • m1&i\i1llu hYium61" nT1~0J~n~1&i\i1llu h~u ~u'i11111'~iiiil~ cliu~i'.lm1l-lii'.loilil:J;i61~~Yi11 Vii'.lm1l-l~u h 'Wil~'il~nii'1<if'1llu h m11iJn~1<1f'1llu hLn\i1'il1nni11m"i<lf'1llu h~i1\i1b'l'111~1iJ~~eJ ll-ibbuh 1u<iiil:J;J61 UiltJ fl~'~llm"l1'11rnrnflni,y1 (case study) lu'l'll1d*~'~llm-,rl1111u'1n-llii.$lni,y1~iin$lni,y101:;\ilei~'ln<iiil:J;Jmrn 111~eJ1lrn.iii 1urnruiiul11iJmn Ll-i•wm'l'1eJ iin$lni,y1~noi:;ibrnruoilrn;161 Ll-ifl"ilJm •flu'11 c111GJ1'11 LVf m1 'l•<i11~il'lJ1111iiu1iJ1"1~rnl'i1~m1 •-ilu.~mnu 1um<1101'i~~1'11~1um 1iJmm1n~oi~iln 1"111 111l:J;J61~i'.l ~ umut11u'1l-lu1rn '' '1111 i1 n~ '1l-1m-,1'111\f\eJm1 oii11ill-161i:l'il'luu~i1bYi1~11111.l u lm'l, fl11 ~'11 bbil :;o/i \i1 llu h • • • 1u-,~<lfu111rt~ ~~N61~m'il'l~bn'1<111l-lmf\eJm">L<il~uili~m1:>Jil1•1iu~'~111l~1111m1:>Ji111'ieJ.iJei:i;:61•~l-lb~l-I b\~ilm"><if '1 iiu h~ •bl-imh '1l-l\J"lffil-l1 n~u 111'iil<iiil :J;J61 b ~ il mw \i1 '1 il!Jfll'><if \i1 iiu h11\] n iii il~ b 111m ~'1l-I Vl~il 1iJ 111'ieJm'il oi ~u l lllrjm">.i'u 1111.i'uffl' 1*~11 il :J;J61~oi ~ ,l'JuiJ-,~ LtJ'llurl1111~un 1'>"11 , u un'il m1.i eJ 1u1.l
1 um1"i'1m1m1"11 bttu~1unoirn">l-lil~ hl\<111:.J ii:n$lni,y101:;1i'eJ~1'11m1l-I •1111 'ilnu 'deJ b~il,,X u1 111~1lil'l}1111iiu11VftieJ,bbYfrieJui:iuiiieJ m1GiLOJ111t!'lVibb<11n b.iJ1 h L'ii'Y11'i111'im1l1 hi:J!1.J111111h1111'i1i'il~fll"i1Vi1'11 mJ1, 1-, 111'iilil'lJ1111~1Jm .. n•lium.h' 11"W-i'eJ:>J,ii~iiim•1l1h1ueill'1TI<i'1~'1 ~ .. ~"Wu111'im~ilul'JJ.i1~11Vi~
-iiDl-ln~7m-ii1miiuriDui'lu<iimmmbbt1:; 1Vimm11-ifol-1n LvrudJwnm.Yh1•"l~ -iiDl-ln Lviml'lum1l-I • • • ~"1,ilu bb<1:;vi1ni.i11t11-iinf1~bbt1rnbt1d1-iiil~n 1'1-m~1m m'll ~1 m:S~tl"lmm vi"lD-iiD~n 1viu~ i'],~'ll:;Vi 1 ub:S~mi1J11wii1~ fll'lbbt1rnbt1:;i\1-iiDl-l<1m 'l i'l u"l'lllfll~\ilm'lm'lliil bU'U~1uiiu 1Vi'A'll"lilll 3 Vf1-iiDV1'9'fl$iil ' .
1) Jl1ui:l•~m-llboii1 (input)
m1Vlm·:1t111nH.r1'llif11.011u11.Y1 (Input)
-iiil~n#i1ui:l'J~tJU1boii1vi"lD Input blJu-iiD~m~mnuil•~t1'1i1~'1 ~u1m 1-ii'lum-.lii1bu'!4-l1u m-.
'A'll"lm1-iiD~<i~blJ'U Input iiu m-.,:;'A'J1"lm11Vi~vi1fl-iiD~n Input ~u1m1-tlaJIJfl<if1l~'Vl"lDii fl1ll-1'1<11\ilb'1~1l'U n'J:;'Yi11Virn:;u1um"lvi1~1rn'i'1 Ltlbb<1:;/V1"lilN<1Nli<11bn\ilmll-1W\ilW<ll'111ill-1 ltiLJI ,~11 •:;iirn:;mum-.~~'vi1'l'1n<111l-I ~~iiu ~~<ifml'.im-.fliurnmoifo~n'li1~'1 1vr~ ,r)D 1Vil11l-11-.11u1~~~\Jfl <ifD1bvi1iiu~'J:;boii1m:;mum"l'Yi1~1uii"1 Ltlum•1fliiu'11™•1-.m1m1mh~t\!'llEN-iiil~n~•:;u11ti1-ifJl1t111 blJu-ii il~n~ii m1 i<'51 •lJ'Ub vi1ii u ~~' :;'Yi11 Vim-.~ '1m"lbn '1tl-,:;ifV1n N n bb<i:;tl;:;ifVI nmw\!~ m'lu 1 bm-ii €1~ n
'51u 1'Ul-11 fl 'l Vi)aJ ii m1l-lit1~ t\Jl-11 fl i<1 '-ii1rn:;u1um·N :;,ti um• La.i ~l-lnul111~m•:;~•:;tl7:;m n 1 'fl'll :;Vi
-iiD~n'ii1~'1 m<11iiu1'1t11aJ'51blJ'U vi11VlL-ifV17wmrn1tim.h' 1a.i~l-l~l
..:::.. 91 G\ 91 fll':i'l'l1ll':iil.!l'llfl\jll I'll \lll'll il1~1J1'11fll':i (Process)
1fo~n#i1ufl;:;mum-,vi"liJ Process 1Jiwi -iiD~m~mnurn:;mum'lbb<il;~'U<11il'Umdtiijif~~m 'llmm;\ii1 bU'IWl'U m'liiml"im1i<tJ1111mD,l'.irn~1'Um'ltiijif~~1'Uil~1~ h iin1'9''"n:;l'.im1l-llill-lldllb'Yi1 l• blJ'UV1~fl'llmm.U1-ii ill-lf!Ji'1udm 'l ii'l Vf bn'1tl;:; bti'l1U'l um•11~ bbN'U m•~~~m m•G'i'1<11ll-I bbfl:;mu'1l-I . ' m•l'i1buu~1u Jr~iiu 1uil,l"im•V1"lilV11'i1rn1um••:;ll-iiil~'<111 viu1m1ulln1'9',m•Nli111•vi1h l1 b'1~m~fl'lVl"lm'1~il~llD ""':;n1'9','1u~•rntln,V11il'lil,'lu Input 1<iimfluilmbfiL'Vlu -iiD~<ibV1<i1d•:;u1 1t11-iftl,:;fo'l1UlJi'D~l~mfl l'Ufll'l1l"bN'Urll~'fll'lNfl111 fll~\ilfll'lflillfllW bb<l:;fll';j~\ilvilrilVl'U\ilfll'l'Yil,l'U (scheduling) 'llm,1u'luviu1m1u V11flml"im• laJmm•11l1*1,n1'9',m•Nli1111Vl,f1t1mD'liDmmm.l1'U~boii1m 'il:;'Yi11 Vi bn'1m•<i1-if1 d'w 1 um-.Ni1111""':;1aJmm'll.ll1*1,Nm1u1111l-l~"lJiwl-ID1JV1m t11#1 'lurrnflt9'unu
vi1m1*1,n1'9'~m-.Nli<11mflbnu"lt1iim,tf11•:;mm·mt1ijifG'i~m"l<iiD~1~,f1t1~wil w;in'il:;bn'1m•11~1u (idle
time) 'llD1ri1~~m-.Nli111riilNmlilt1~1bb~fll"l'<11'YJ'U~LaJ~l-lfi1 m1:;'111'lJr11'9'1 L'i!Yfum1u
-=>. v v ..::.. fll':i'l'l'il1':iil.!l'llfl\jll\ll l'lll'li:ll'li:l\ll (Output)
iiD~nJl1uN!'IJN!i111vi1il Output LJi'bbri -iiD~m~mnuN'<1Nli111vi1ilN<i'llmm•~1buu,1u "laJ11'il:;
'Yi1m'l,l'Uill; l 'lV!lflllfll'l111'l1'ill11l1Jif 1l~<I~ blJ'UNflVl1il Output bb~111llJ'U11i1l-l~<if 0~m'lVl1il LaJ n'il:;bn\il
m™'(l.llm bbn:;tl7ut11~rn:;u1um.'lrn1uV11Dm:;mufl1"lm"l'Yi1~1u'ii1''1 '~il~'il:;vi1 'lvr bn\il Nnt9'w~~~
~1-1'limiiei1'liei1 nu 11.1 1u.m.itli]u~'JJmm"lmu<iJl<<iJrn111Y<n<J~1'iim1i,iunY<~m'li1111umfim.,y11ii\i1~1-1 V1'J'.il-ifil-'.im1'J'.l'l1-1'1J1N~n.'11 (customer complaint) mdJ1-1-ifm;1fl~<J~tlwrn~mumw1111-1'li111 '1Jmm.'im-, V11nwu1m11-1V1'J'.eJN'tlnu~Y1nwu11'JY1n.ius:lm1<i111<Jflil1J~1~<i11-1m1l11<J1n-ifill<fl"111-1 Output d Nfl~l"1
'\I 'l<J q q 'II
n<J~dJ1-1m1~m.h1ri111-1V1u1m11-1V1'J'.iJn1J1J.i.imX1-1 m11'l<Jl'i"llil-ifm.Jfl"111-1Nf1V17il Output d'lvr\i1.;f1"111-1 • • • ~ "" ~ 1i.i ~ 1 v1il 'l Vfi11Nfl~~i:i1-1m<J<J~u11t1'l-ifnuV1u 1 mm51-1~-if111~ !N dlum"l'll m l'J N fl m1i,i~1t1'l 1-1 V1u1m1wl1-11 V11nil~ hi1~l-i~n<J~1li1-1uY11~l'l1-1'lVl\"1i1oii1h1u1-1eJ1.'im1i,iiml'J11-1il1.'im-,'liil 11.1
' ' . ' G} ,,:g I <=t <=t ~ .<::!. !'1-1!!'1-11fll'l"l'lfl'lllll'111U'l'l 1 ~0'111'1 l.l !10~'1'1 1.1.2
• .. All'l-11'1 1.2
,4ei,~ 1.2.2 m'ill1:;~n<11"l'6m1'i<.i'll:Ni<:ii,mmrn <1mfi 1.2.3 <if1Lbuu'llei,m1'i<m1:;V1,:ii,mmrn
1. m'l'i l'1'll:;VI ':jl,tfimrnLllum111-TN<if1 LbUlJ m1:;m1vn~1<11eimnn<if1 bblJlJ '~ei1.t1~1<11eiu ~11K'1u 1JH1l um'l<if "1i1u h'Yll~Ij'lfi"J
z. 1•1nm11Lm1:Ni•:il~mmrnlieiri1«u"1~u•~ei11:i11'.Jft~<11'll:i.1111n.i~~~ftm L"1m~:i.i"J1nm1 ~un.irn<11 m11<11'1'b'11111Lb11u'1vil'1-rnii~11K~"1 fiu<if1••uum11111•m1:i.i ,:ii, •lfu:i.111-6
t '\j 2'A !UA 2' <v I ,.,,! J; fDI ~ "-' 'Yll~m'l'Ylvn'l <nnum"1:i.Jr;j<11"1'1U<il'lbblJU<111''1 L~:i.J'llU:i.JlluU!11"1lJ
3. m1li1:;EJn<11"l '6'i'b'1m1'ib.i'll:;Vib :ii~mmrn 1"1 m;. ~1:; 1 u~1uY1ncy"lfi"J •llum1l'i1•uum1
L~€1 L iJi't;'f m1:i.i.J1111ei'11'lftUl 'Yli1~"J:;1.t11111 ii, Um'l<if \ilftU l<J,~ mnum'll'ill'UU!i"ln"J l ~€1 • • vi11VIIl"n"111ii~~"1ey~~"1'llei~li.,:;il'Yllin1~1;';
4. <if 1 Lbuum1'l b<fl'll :;VI b:ii~li1mrn Yi~;';i.t 1 Lftuei 1 U'J/ "1'i'b'1d 1;'; mi <if 1 bblJU m11li1Lbrn:i.i ':ii~ ,ff u <if 1 bblJUnl'l'llufi, 'YI 11i.;5m1<if "1i1u h m1<if <11ilu 1<m1l'.J1~vim l'.lnl:J m ru,o/i bbl1:;<if1 bblJU
ci1 \ilu~ub :ii,1 l!fl'll:;VI m'l'i bm1:;VI b"11ei.n1m1uLbft:;<if1 Lbuum7"1ei'VJ <if1 bblJU .im.im.1
v ,.I J 1\llfi!u':i:::i:l'.:iri
b~ei0ni.;1<11eiu~ 1.2 "JUlli'i'l un0ni.;1mm'lll 1. eilirn l'.Jm1:i.i'Y1m l'.J Lbci:;'l1'<1Jmm'l'llm rn'l'ib<fl'll:;VI ,:ii,mmru.11K
2. eilirn l'.J b~eiu 1 'll'llei~m'l1.t1m'l1•m1:;V1,:ii,111mrn1111i'l um'lbvi:i.ie.Ji1<11rn~ 1;';
• • <!! ~
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b'n~lliju&im1 'Vl'ieJ Operations Research iif~d~ueJtjnuLLU1'Y11~'Vl'l€ll1:J.J:J.J€1~ (approach) ~1i'lum1Yl,n1ru1 UeJn'\J1ndl'J'~il'l'lf1m~fl.i'1EJfl~~nuLun1fl'l'lf1Lfl™::1ff1i\lil4 L'i!Jffll 'l'lf1Lff11'!ll'l&i 'Vl'ieJ Econometrics
~~Vim EJ!i~ L 'Ylflufl<il1~'1 ~1 ~ um1'lbfldl::Vi'Yl1~bff"i1'1l'i11i\1i14
fl113J'IUJ1£J911illl'IJ1'11Hl'lflfll"illfl"il:::Yl1:ti-:itJ13.11tu (Quantitative Analysis)
l ULbU1'Y11~1i11:J-Jl'lf1 m1'l LfldltVi bon~mmru.d 1.-i !Jvf1 Lll LL.11bJlUbbU1'Y11~~L-ifnu l W11'1l'lf11J"i'V11"l
Jfln'\J riiN'\J1nmi~nw:i1m-i~'\Jru"lV11-iii-in'\J~U '\J::L-ifiif~i'Ylm'f11i\lil4mi:;i'li1ll:; (Science and Art) 1u
mTu1V11'1n m-i'Y11~i'YI m mi\lil4m 1 i'l um-iu"lV11-iTI1n'\J~u '\I ::Ll'ium1&i.-i bL'1t<i'i .-ii1u h 1'1 !J~U"11U'll €1~ ' ~
<i'i1b'1'll'Vl'ieJ.ifil:1;Ji1~l'.liltj m1'lbm1::Vi,:n,mmruV1mEJii' mm1ifJ1.ifm;Ji1~dJu<i'i1•'1'llmll-i::m!JWi!bllu. il,f1m1:J.J-i' (knowledge) 'Vl1umwurnfl (information) xr!fl 1-if<ilri1\uhrrn1t1n'\J EJn<i'11mh:1b'liu b";nl'.l
.if€1:1;Ji1i\n&iLueJ~lileJtj<;i1u1u'Vl\'l~ mn&ililb€11:J.J1'Vl1'11b%~!J (arithmetic mean) V11'11fhub1'imblJU:J.Jllil"l.!jlU
(standard deviation) bbi1::dJum1:J.Jib~ mnull-i:;'illfld'llil~ m11l1')ru.'wu&imh~ h byjeJ~'\J::u 1 Ltll-if
<i'iii11\uhb'R'Jl"n'\J<ileJ 11.J V1'ieJV11fflin'\Jm1l1m1:J.Jii~mffu\Jnfi1'lleJ1n'\Jm";d1 \Jnfi1m 1-ifu"lm11 uilii111~ :J.JlnUeJ!J'lJUllil L'VIU bb'1:0n'\Jm"Ji'.lm1:J.Ji\1m1n lum11Viu"lm-i 1Vi11.-iL11mn'11Ullil 1'Vlu n'\Jm1nmm1n~ '\JtLm.if ei:J.J!1 LV1fi1iXU:J.J1ll"i::m'1 lVilli'im1:J.J-i'11i\mum1ill (situation) m11 Vimm1'llei~n'\JmdL!'iuil u11 h • • \jnfl1'\J:;~~v·m hLL'11'Vlu V1'ieJ\jnfl1'\Jttl"i::6luiJ'lJV11mnihilmf1EJ~ llil ,yjei'li1EJ 1um1<i'iii11\uh11 lueiu1fllil
m"i~'\J:: 1'1l1m1LYi:J.J~lilm1:J.Jmm1n h1m11Viu"lmdL~:J.J~u'Vl'lei1:J.J LL!1tV11rn~:J.Jmw"lm"ilb'11\jnfl1'\Jtl1 ml:J.J~~vm hmn~u'Vl'lei Ll-lL<Wm 1.-i
<i'i~iXu bl1eiv:l'\J1-;ru.11 uL'lf1'llil1m"ii bfldl ::Vi L'lf1mmru. m:J.J1"innfi1111i'in111'1 11 Li'.leii'.J<i'IJL!1'll Lb'11
'\JtLm<i'i1 L!1'llmll1:;m., tV1,n.-ieJ1'1m1:J.Ji•yjeJ 1til~um.,\il.-i1\u h'Y111ii1n'\J 11i'ieJu11 h luLeJnm1tl"itmi1
i\1"i::'l'll1m"i'lbfl11::Vi,:n1mmru.d'\J::nfi11ii,11lm"i<i\11'1 ~'\Jrn1::m'1.ifeJ:1;J'1 lu~mJu<i\11'1 LvleJ 1Vllli'idJu
ml:J.J-i' ~1'\Jtl-11iihum"ii\-i'11<i'i1rnJu (model) 1uwLLuu"111'1 ,yjeJfln1't1LLi1:0'lbfldl::Vim:nun1"iru"111'1 ~ . ' . L~EJ1num1~.-im"i 1u~d'lleJ 1Viibnflnmb.if1 h11<i'i1bL1JlJ (model) "11~'1 ~u1Li\ueJnulu\li111'11udiif1 VI '11 EJ bl'i un 1 "i"i1 u-;1 :J.J im ti 1:;i\u n 11ru 'll eJ~u n'l'lf1 m"i LL" ::ibn~ .-i m1"11~ 'l ~1 '1 tl1:;i\un u iJ t\J'VI 1 "" :;f\ u 'V1u11lm"i'Vl1'111iieJlJ'lleJ~iJ'lJV11iXu'l ~e.hum f!J"i:;lii1~'1 LU'VIU~~eJ\li111rrnli'i1ud ~~bl'iuLY1EJ1<i'11eJu1~
'llm1ilm11h~;J,J'lt1.ifei;J,J11"il1m1mum1rn1uei~<ii~r-l1um11 b~eil'.l.ifei;J,J11~ueith,V1ii, 14fl'.lnwu1m • • 1h~m111 u~ni,rru~V1ii, bbl1~ 14f Nl1bU'\.\fl,fi'm1;J,JVimm1mm 1t11-ii,1w1ifl 1t114f bY<'ll~>t~tXuwu,fifl4f 1u
n111b'fl11~Vib'ii'ili;J,J1ru~'l-l1b<.1ueinuT<iitJvf11ti"il~blJu<if1fl~1'm'nh~m<1<if1bb1JlJ<ii1''1 ~' 1u~dll14f'l-l1bm <if1 bbuutl1~mru 10 <if1bblJlJm1 Vi0ni,r1 bY<11~>1~tXu"i'<iitltl1~mfi''llfl,m'l0ni,r11 u1'1i1m'l1 b'fl'll ~Vi b'ii'
' ilimrud'.Jum'lfini,r1<il1fl~l''llfl'm~u1um'l;,i<il'llfl'iin1'1i1m·rn1mXn11'1mm1w1flufl~<il l<iiff'l<il*
vim tJ~ bbVi"il~' 1 um'lfini,r1 <if fl,m'l 1Viiin0ni,r1~'V1m tJ 14f1'111u11 b~fl 14fri1m1i'1ni,r11'1i1d1bii'1l'.lm1;J,J
b-ii1 hm1;J,J;,i<iibb<1~1ilm1'llfl,iin1'1i1m1ml11~u ~'vi1ni1iinfini,r11~Y<uvi1flbN'iitlJnu<.1mum1rnb~mnu II m m1t1'1-l 1<if1 uurn vi l11tX umtl'l~ tJ n'iit '614f vi1flvi1ntl1~<.1u nunmum'lrn ~ "11' Lu<J1nYi14f it 1bi.1'\.\fl111 u
' 'Jl<il1'1i1d iinfinmm10nB1"il~mm'ln'l-l1mtu1um1;,i\il'llfl'iin1'1i1m'lbV1Gi1tXu~r-i1umbbii'1 mbllu
<if1fl~1' 1um1n1'1,m~mum1;,i<il'llm<iiubfl'b'V1flm'filtlJV11 vi1fl'l-l1m1-iim;111'llfl,<i1Ubm~l'.11unnl'\.\n11rn tXumtl1~mmlium1;J,Jib'iilfl 1-iit11~nflum1<ii'<iiflu h 1um1~1buu,1u<iifl 1ti <if'~um10ni,r11 u1'1i14f1ud
~' 1l-J14fi'.l'llfl1Jb'll<ilb'V1 rnbb.i<ii''lbblJlJ~Ulbi.1'\.\8 Hb'Yil~'\.\ 'llfl 1Vifi1u'li'11<iifl 1u"ilt'l-l11JJ1-iiri1eit l'l 1u~d'llfl buu111Virhn11fini,r1m~mum1;,i<ilmnn11~"il~0nB1bV1rn<ii'1bb1JlJ'llflnilm1"11''1 ~l'.l~;,i<ii.'\u~umbbii''l
• l'YilU'\.\
fll':l1<Dmil.:iili)i'Wim':I (Operations Research)
rl1vi'\'u bb u 11'1 l,~"il ~n 1111(i,<iifl1udbll U!J ;J,J ;J,J fl' J{, b~ ;J,J~ bD'\.\bb vi ii' rh b U<il'll fl' 1'1i1n111 b 'fl'll ~Vi b :ii, ilimrui>ifl 11'1mm1<\i<iim1 (Management Science) bb'1tm'l1<\im'ii'tlijli~m'l vi1flm11<\itJm'l~lbU'\.\
'l'\.\ (Operations Research) ~'bl'lum'l'l-l 1vi~nm'l1'11,11'1mfilfl<il1m1-ii'l um'l<if <ii1lu h bf1flm'l~(i)nl'l vi1fl bl'lum'l~<il'l~lJum1;J,J;,i <il<iil;J,JVl~nm'l11'1 mm<.1<il1b f1 eim'l<if <ilflu h l<ii m~;J,Jo/lu"il1nm'lb oif 11t10ni,r1
b'iilmhV1'\.\<ilflmum'lrnbL<1~iltlJV1l<ii1''1 {problem identification) nl'llb'fl'll~ViiltlJVllVl1fl<fmum'lrn (problem analysis) m'lrilVl'\.\<ill'll'b~eJn l'\.\nl'lblflUt\JVll (alternatives development) m'JJJ'l~b!l'\.\1'11' b~fln<iil''l bb'1tb~fln1'1l'~~~'!<il (assessment and evaluation) bb6'1~m'l'i-ll1'1l'~'~fln 1titiijli~ (imple­
mentation) ~'~'Vl;J,J\ilfi'l'l;J,Jb1tJn11 n'l~lJ'l'\.\nl'lbbflUt\)1'11 {problem solving methodology) m-;
n1'1'm~1num1;,i <ii L um1~"il t~' bfllflmunT;-rn1 VI ii1tX um fini,r1 bb'1ttl'ltm '1 l '1114f bl'lu oiim;1" l '\.\m1
<if<iifluh<i11;J,Jbb'\.\'lrrndll1liub'lim~mnuYi14fnii11m.i1;J,Jbb'\.\'l1'1l''llei'1'1i1'llmm'l1L'fl'lltVi1'ii'tlimru~14f nl111mnfluviii:1dm1'1 bb'iim'l;J,Jfl' 1u~tlbb1JlJ'llfl'11'1mm1<\i(i)m1u11~m11~tJ1'ii,iJijli~m1b11"il~l'.11ilm1 fini,r1~~nn11 l(i)!J~b~fltl1~<.1ununmum1ru"l<iiflm'\.\m'lrnviii,vi1flti'ltnunuiltlJvi11(i)iltlJV11V1ii, <Jt
1oii111.10ni,r1nmum1rn vi1eiiltlJV11tX '\.\ 1 u11 !J'1tb5 tJ<il u'1t'Yi1m'i\i111fl,nmum1rnvi~fl~111miltlJV11,Xu b f1flj{, bllu<if1 b1uu~U;J,J1 <if 1 bbuudt<ii tJu n~if n<J ~ 1-iibl'lu<if 1bbuu1 'ii,1'11~"1 rn<ilmn <ii.;: (math em a ti cal mod el)
b~ fl ~'<if 'l bblJlJ 1bl11 l\<J t'Yi1m1i'1ni,r1<if 1 bblJlJ lbl1t;,i (i) .'iu 1ilmTII <J t'l-l 111.1 ~'11.i fllJ<Jln <if 1 bblJlJ~ u bbii''l bm '11
.iflun~u 1u1-ii'l '\.\<.1mum1rn<Ji' bY<'ll~~iX u 11::1D1"'~D1"l b'ii,'llfl,11'1 m '1Jfl<i11mT-J(i)m],•l1~m-,1~ tJ1'ii'
1Jll11~m::t "Jl;JUHvtllD 111 .. 2 .. .JfuGlel'kl wJ11>'11illi~ .. t 1lium:;-Ji'~1ii1bbuu (model) m1:;.Jiu<11il'U~ 2 $ill Dl'i ----- ----"' '------ --------··-- ---- ---- ---~ ~
ff1-i~'illm'iVl1~1<ililU'OJ1Dlii1bb1JU (algorithm) - - ,,_ -- _,, ~-- __ ,_...-- ---- -- ----
ilEll~ 1m<111l-J m<Jmh11'11uffv.J1Ji11 m:;-fini,;1 'l u'i'll1mil1'1'ilt~1'if~m:1.nrn 'i'Yl mmff<111mr~\11m'i LLfl:;m:;-'i-ii'uLt~ll5ii~m-; 1'11um1l-J1liu<J'i~LLfi1Lliu'lllfi'1l 'lum~<J:;fini,;11JtjJV1l~~~mnLLfltffi1'u.Jlu./iilu ~~iJllJvi1'lu:ii'i<11<J'i~i11u'l111qj<JtLliuiJllJV11~ff i1u.Jlu./iilu 1liuiJllJV11~ Ll'.iil Ln\11~'ULLii'1L -,11l-lff1l-J1:;-n\lnli~ ~l<ililUVl~ilunli~'Yl1~~'0J:;L1niJ\jJV1l (solution) <11•~'1 L\11tJ~l\J:;fi\11 'luhL1uu~1u'11#1 L\'i'il:;\:\.,.,,X'U m~'OJ:; LLm 'llil '1JVl1~fli1u.Jlu./iilu d ~~ o/f il~ ~ 1 Lil um'iil tl1~ Lliu~ u<11 ilU iJ'Jllq:) \11 LLfl :;m:;mum:;-q:) \11 il tl1~ Lliw;-:;uu ~fini,;1 'l uLt~m-;'l{ tJ Lt~ll5ii~m'>"JtL uum'iV11'illn1•V1~il.Jiu<11ilu 'l um'>LLnilllJvi1mnn11 ~'OJ:; Lu um'J
1111~1<11ilu iiuvimum1i.J11Ll'.iilu'J:;f!ui:lllJV1l 'OJ:; 1i.J1#1l-Jil~V11~1<11ilu 1'11 tJVfuYi LL.i<J:;1111~u<11ilu 'l um~,:; LLnilllJm L\11tJ~i111~il1111~u<11ilu~'rnnilllJvi11#1LLii'1 L1f1:;~1 Lil um" 1u<111l-J~u<11ilu<ii'~n<i11/I,:; 1#1
~1"1il1JililDl-Jl L U~")\11 W11JaH~ 1.1 ilIDJltJn~ LLU 1'Yll~ L Unl'iff.J'1~\if1Lb1JULLfltDl'JV11~1<ilil1J"JlD\if1 LLUU
ffl-Jl-J~11 lJU'JtffUm'iruVl~ilffmum-;rn $1iJ 'lu1u~virt~ L1X'1u~if1u11l<11f11\11;ilftl-J 1 n1fln'i'l-J
LLfi:;;ilif~~\11 3 n1rin-\'l-J ~~'1'U;il LoifL'.Ju1iJ~~Vll-J\11130 Ul'Yl 5n1uvi'ii~L&iD!'l'Ub~l-J1u;ilftl-J 3 fiLrin-\'l-J LLfit
;ilif~~\11 1 n1'1n'i'l-J loiiL'.lu 150 Ul'Yl fil-Jl-J~11L~i.Jm1l-1!1m1l-JlbMmnu'ilm'llil~ftmL'1:;if~~'" 'Yl'JlU
LiAim LL.!11 LL'1'1:;1u L oifL'.lu~m-m Li:J~~ff il~il Lll~ lu~1mu1vi1 L\11 <if~{(u VllD 1i.J LLfl1~Vl1'111l-J~LR mnum'J L -ii ..J1m'.Ju1unum'l";m.m 1i:i~~ffil~<ii'~nil11 'luu'1'1:;1u "Jt1l-lmm'l"nuiln 1#11'1tJ11m'J 'loii1'.JuLvi1 L"1 LUm'i;il
i:,m 1i'.i 1L'1'1:;'11u1u 1111nffu h~<J:;fini,;1 'l u~d~1mut'imL'1:;if~~\11~;m1'1:;'11muL'.Ju~..J1tJ1u'luLL'1'1:;1u ":;Lliwii m;J'1~ul\J1nffmum:;-rn~1Jlm LL'1:;1111n<if il~m., 'l1Xi1'111l-Jimnl'iil~'OJ:; 1ulii '"~u hnu.11'l1!~1 tJ 'l u m•~e:iv.m 1i'.f~~ffiJ~'llu\11d'lu'11u1u~1111m:;ffi.J 'lu1Lwi'1:;1'u/l<J:;<ifil~mfini,;111 il~.11.l'JtDilU'llil~m:;-;mliu m.h~l'i 'lu1'if~'llmm'>'i'Jm'if~ll5ii~m-; (Operations Research) !l<J:;~11ilum'i<ir~d . . .
ifu9111ul\ 1 1'i1m:;-\ii~lii11Luu
fatJ 'l1X x 1
= 'J1'11'llil~ftwn1'1n-\'l-J x = 'J1'11'llmif~l'l'"tn1'1n'i'l-J
'lu1u~vi~~;ilftl-J 1 n1'1n'i'l-J ;ilif:~\11 3 n1'1n'i'l-Jl'1iL'.lu1u 130 rn'Yl
X + 3X = 130 Ul'Yl • 2 •
'lu5n1u'Eilftl-J 3 n1'1n-\'l-J :ililif~~'" 1 n1'1n'i'l-J 'liiClu1iJ 150 rn'Yl 3X
1 + X
if~l'l\11'ilrnLvhh fllm'Jn1'i1L~\11tJrlil"1fll-JDl'J<illl-Jlii1LLUU<il~nil11 Lviil1111'11 x Lmt x ililDl-Jl • 1 2
~umru~ 2 Yi1m'll'11'11.iilu'l1n<i'f'muu ~''inm™~il algorithm ~14lnm'lbllu1'1~'w1im'l1-ii ~'fl\ilrn'1TI'lW\ill bv1ilm'11<i'11bb'l.h 'J:o1'1 x = 40 !Jl'\'1 x = 30 !Jl'\'1 Yi1LVf'1'1'llU11fi:J.J~~ilbb'ili1:0lU'll\ill
1 2 .... ' .... '
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