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After adding 74,000 jobs in December, the U.S. unemployment rate fell 30 basis points to 6.7 percent—though total unemployment, which includes individuals who have stopped actively seeking jobs, stuck at 13.1 percent. The economy has recovered 86.5 percent of jobs lost in the downturn and we’re now 0.9 percent below previous peak unemployment, with office-using employment 47.1 percent higher than the previous peak. See details on the data, including demographic, geographic and industry breakdowns, in this report featuring research from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and Jones Lang LaSalle.
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U.S. employment situation: September 2013
Release date: October 22, 2013
An abnormally slow December caps off the year with a range of bright spots as well as challenges
U.S. employment situation: December 2013
Release date: January 10, 2014
What were this month’s bright spots and challenges?
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
2
OVERVIEW
• The U.S. economy added 74,000
jobs in December.
• Unemployment fell 30 basis points
to 6.7 percent.
• 86.5 percent of jobs have been
recovered; now less than 0.9
percent below previous peak
employment.
• Office-using employment is 47.1
percent higher than previous
peak.
• Trade, PBS, leisure and
manufacturing the largest
contributors to monthly growth.
• PBS, retail trade, leisure and
hospitality and education and
health the largest contributors to
year-on-year growth.
• Service-providing industries see
best year during the recovery
(+2.0 million jobs).
• Unemployment down to 7.1
percent for high school graduates
with no college; stable and much
lower for degree holders.
• Tech still posting growth well
above the national average.
• Initial unemployment insurance
claims wobble near recovery lows.
• Consumer confidence sees 6.1-
point rebound in line with drop in
unemployment.
• Fastest-growing metro areas sees
some geographic expansion.
• Total unemployment stuck at
13.1 percent, still very elevated
compared to historic norms.
• Private sector responsible for all
gains throughout the year,
however seeing slowdown.
• Information’s 12,000-job monthly
contraction pushes down office-
using gains and share of overall
one-month net job growth.
• Labor force participation rate
nationally is down to 62.8
percent and for high school
graduates down to 58.0 percent.
• Temporary help services sees
40,400 new jobs added in
December, surpasses 2.8 million.
• Midwest and East Coast markets
still lag rest of national recovery
Overview Bright spots Challenges
December saw the addition of only 74,000 jobs, the
second-lowest monthly gain throughout the recovery 22
0,00
0
121,
000
120,
000
110,
000
220,
000 24
6,00
0
251,
000
54,0
00 84
,000
96,0
00
85,0
00
202,
000
112,
000
157,
000
223,
000
311,
000
271,
000
205,
000
112,
000
125,
000
87,0
00
153,
000
165,
000
138,
000
160,
000
247,
000
219,
000
148,
000
332,
000
142,
000
199,
000
176,
000
172,
000
89,0
00
238,
000
175,
000 20
0,00
0
241,
000
74,0
00
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
Oct
-10
Nov
-10
Dec
-11
Jan-
11
Feb
-11
Mar
-11
Apr
-11
May
-11
Jun-
11
Jul-1
1
Aug
-11
Sep
-11
Oct
-11
Nov
-11
Dec
-11
Jan-
12
Feb
-12
Mar
-12
Apr
-12
May
-12
Jun-
12
Jul-1
2
Aug
-12
Sep
-12
Oct
-12
Nov
-12
Dec
-12
Jan-
13
Feb
-13
Mar
-13
Apr
-13
May
-13
Jun-
13
Jul-1
3
Aug
-13
Sep
-13
Oct
-13
Nov
-13
Dec
-13
1-m
onth
net
cha
nge
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
3
OVERVIEW
Three-month net change down to 515,000…but
unemployment drops 30 basis points to 6.7 percent
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Une
mpl
oym
ent
rate
(%
)
One
-mon
th n
et c
hang
e (t
hous
ands
)
Monthly employment change Unemployment rate
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
4
OVERVIEW
90%
92%
94%
96%
98%
100%
102%
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74
1973 1981 1990 2001 2007
74 months into the cycle, total employment is now less
than 0.9 percent below prior peak levels
Rec
over
ed jo
bs (
%)
Past recessions (40 years)
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Pre-recession employment level
5
OVERVIEW
Jobs lost during recession…
Jobs gained during recovery…
86.5 percent of jobs have been recovered from the
recession; now 1.2 million jobs below pre-recession peak
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
6
OVERVIEW
Office-using jobs lost
during recession…
Office-using jobs gained
during recovery…
All office-using jobs have been recovered, but are much
more tech- and management-centered
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
7
OVERVIEW
-16.0
-13.0
-12.0
-1.0
-0.6
0.0
1.0
1.0
3.0
4.0
4.0
6.0
9.0
9.0
15.4
19.0
40.4
55.3
-40 -20 0 20 40 60 80
Construction
Government
Information
Health care and social assistance
Transportation and warehousing
Education and health services
Other services
Motor vehicles and parts
Nondurable goods
Financial activities
Mining and logging
Durable goods
Leisure and hospitality
Manufacturing
Wholesale trade
Professional and business services
Temporary help services
Retail trade
Trade, PBS, manufacturing and leisure contribute the
majority gains in an otherwise slow month
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
8
OVERVIEW
Retail trade PBS
Manufacturing Leisure and hospitality
Financial activities Education and health
All other jobs
Core subsectors added more jobs
than monthly net total.
-25.0
-4.0
1.0
30.0
31.0
39.8
42.2
76.0
77.0
84.0
95.0
122.0
247.4
280.2
327.0
380.8
390.0
637.0
-100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
Government
Information
Nondurable goods
Other services
Mining and logging
Motor vehicles and parts
Transportation and warehousing
Durable goods
Manufacturing
Financial activities
Wholesale trade
Construction
Temporary help services
Health care and social assistance
Education and health services
Retail trade
Leisure and hospitality
Professional and business services
12-month net change (thousands)
PBS Leisure and hospitality
Retail trade Education and health
Financial services Manufacturing
All other jobs
Over the year, however, core growth areas PBS, leisure,
retail trade and education and health remain dominant
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
9
OVERVIEW
Core subsectors added 86.7 percent
of all jobs over the past 12 months.
Tech still leading, while energy, mining and utilities
growing, but at national rates of growth
-11.0
-9.0
-7.0
-5.0
-3.0
-1.0
1.0
3.0
5.0
7.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
High-tech Energy, Mining, and Utilities Office-using industries Total non-farm
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Moody’s. Note: Due to data lags, high-tech employment only available through November 2013.
10
12-m
onth
% c
hang
e
OVERVIEW
Service-providing industries see best year during the
recovery (+2.0 million jobs)
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
One
-mon
th n
et c
hang
e (t
hous
ands
)
Goods-producing Service-providing
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
11
BRIGHT SPOT
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Bachelor's degree and higher High school graduates, no college
High school graduates see unemployment fall to 7.1
percent; rate stable, but much lower, for degree holders
3.3%
7.1%
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
12
BRIGHT SPOT
Tech is up near recovery norms again after seeing
slowdown in recent months Year-on-year percent growth
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
13
BRIGHT SPOT
Initial unemployment insurance claims fall to new lows,
wobbling between 330,000 and 360,0000 per week
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
550,000
600,000
650,000
Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13
Initial claims 4-week moving average
4 week moving average below 400,000 claims
(consistently) means economy is adding jobs
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, U.S. Department of Labor
14
BRIGHT SPOT
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Une
mpl
oym
ent r
ate
Onl
ine
help
wan
ted
ads
New help wanted ads
Unemployment rate
Online help wanted ads jump by 126,500 as
unemployment drops to a recovery-low in December
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Conference Board
15
BRIGHT SPOT
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Consumer confidence index
Unemployment rate
In line with a drop in unemployment, the consumer
confidence index increased 6.1 points in December
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Conference Board, Bureau of Labor Statistics
16
BRIGHT SPOT
After a year dominated by the Sunbelt, a more varied
landscape of employment growth emerges
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
17
Tampa
3.3% Houston
3.1%
Silicon Valley
2.9%
New York
2.8%
Dallas
2.7%
Austin
2.7%
BRIGHT SPOT
Overall wage growth and a falling number of
discouraged workers point in a positive direction
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
18
BRIGHT SPOT
+$12.07 (+1.5%)
Average weekly earnings are
on the up year-on-year
+5.2% y-o-y
Management and technical consulting
among the strongest components of PBS
-151,000 (-14.1%)
The number of discouraged workers has
fallen by 14.1 percent year-on-year
-140bp
PBS-related unemployment is down
140 basis points year-on-year
Total unemployment remains steady at 13.1 percent for
the month, but trending downward
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Total unemployment U-6 10-year average
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
19
CHALLENGE
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
Jan-
07
Jan-
08
Jan-
09
Jan-
10
Jan-
11
Jan-
12
Jan-
13
58
59
60
61
62
63
College graduates
High school grads no college
High school graduates’ participation rate drops to just
58.0 percent, with college graduate rate stable C
olle
ge g
radu
ates
High school graduates
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
20
CHALLENGE
-1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Change in '000s jobs
Private sector is responsible for all gains (101.1 percent)
in 2013; government jobs continue their contraction
Private sector hiring up 4.5
million since December 2011
Public sector shed 112,000
workers since November 2011
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
21
CHALLENGE
Growth in trade and overall diversification of growth
push down office-using industries’ share of gains
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
22
CHALLENGE
Information’s 12,000-job contraction reduces growth in
office-using industries
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Information Professional and business services Financial activities
PBS represented 75.0 percent of office jobs lost in February 2010.
In December 2013, it represented all net new office-using jobs.
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
23
CHALLENGE
Temporary help services posts sharp jump in
employment, surpasses 2.8 million for the first time ever
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
2,400
2,600
2,800
3,000
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Mon
thly
net
cha
nge
in jo
bs (
ths)
Temporary employment monthly net change Temporary employment
Temporary em
ployment (ths)
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
24
CHALLENGE
Midwestern and East Coast markets still lag the rest
of the country
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Cleveland
-0.8%
Milwaukee
0.1%
Oakland-
East Bay
0.3%
Westchester
County
0.5%
St. Louis
0.5%
CHALLENGE
Other supplementary indicators show that many
challenges still remain
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
26
+2,893,000 (+3.2%)
The number of people out of the workforce
has risen by 3.2 percent year-on-year
-6 minutes
On average, employees are working six fewer
minutes (-0.1 hours) year-on-year
-1,000 jobs (-0.0%)
Legal services has seen a 12-month net
contraction of 1,000 jobs
62.8% (-20bp)
The labor force participation rate fell
20 basis points to 62.8 percent
CHALLENGE
©2014 Jones Lang LaSalle Research IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof.
For more information, please contact:
Ben Breslau
Managing Director - Americas Research
John Sikaitis
Managing Director - Office & Local Markets Research
Phil Ryan
Research Analyst
U.S. employment situation: September 2013
Release date: October 22, 2013
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