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The World This Week September 01 September 06, 2014

The world this week 01 Sep - 06 Sep

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The world this week 01 Sep - 06 Sep

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  • 1. The World This Week September 01 September 06, 2014
  • 2. Equity View: The macro economic situation in Europe continues to deteriorate. The GDP growth is almost down to zero and the talks are indicating a triple-dip recession. The crisis was aggravated by the Export ban imposed by EU countries on Russia which was reciprocated in turn by Russia. This has led to a further de- growth in some of the major economies. France, Italy and Germany have seen a fresh hit to the macro economic growth. The last quarter GDP growth for UK also took a dip. Considering this, an economic stimulus was announced by the European Central Bank of providing further cut in the interest rates. We believe this kind of stimulus to continue for some more time. US, on the other hand, continue to show aggressive economic growth. The US markets continue to make life-time highs. The S&P crossed 2000-mark in the last week and still trades above that level. There is a big bull market rally playing out which is backed by the improving macro-economic conditions there. We believe this situation in US to improve and maintain our stance that the first interest rate hike in the region would happen only in the middle of 2015. In India, Q2 earnings starting from the first week of October would be the next trigger for the market. Until then global news would be driving the markets.
  • 3. News: DOMESTIC MACRO: RBI amends Basel III guidelines for banks - Indian banks can now issue Tier 2 capital with a minimum original maturity of 5 years as against 10 years previously, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said in a notification on Monday, amending some guidelines on Basel III implementation in India. India's rating seen limited by fiscal deficit, inflation - Moody's Modi could do more to curb inflation - opinion poll. GLOBAL MACRO EURO Central European PMIs point to slowdown as sanctions hit sentiment. ECB cuts rates to ward off euro zone deflation threat - The ECB cut its main refinancing rate to 0.05 percent from 0.15 percent. United States U.S. job growth brakes to eight-month low, labor force shrinks - Nonfarm payrolls increased 142,000 last month after expanding by 212,000 in July, the Labor Department said on Friday. Most Wall Street firms see U.S. rate hike in second quarter 2015: Reuters poll. U.S. trade deficit smallest in six months on rising exports. Japan Japan GDP seen revised down, raises concern about tax hike plan. China China economy fears deepen as August HSBC flash PMI at three-month low. Indices: Date Sensex Midcap Auto Bankex CD CG FMCG HC IT Metals O&G Power Realty Teck 1/9/2014 26,868 9,445 17,522 18,326 9,331 15,323 7,352 13,380 10,124 12,595 11,365 2,095 1,774 5,635 2/9/2014 27,019 9,524 17,552 18,453 9,589 15,321 7,407 13,626 10,142 12,494 11,483 2,094 1,788 5,678 3/9/2014 27,140 9,605 17,670 18,430 9,631 15,444 7,363 13,667 10,395 12,639 11,485 2,093 1,826 5,803 4/9/2014 27,086 9,615 17,689 18,354 9,644 15,289 7,382 13,733 10,352 12,449 11,424 2,083 1,745 5,779 5/9/2014 27,027 9,669 17,573 18,298 9,660 15,421 7,359 13,760 10,405 12,534 11,456 2,084 1,765 5,792 0.59% 2.37% 0.29% -0.16% 3.53% 0.64% 0.09% 2.84% 2.78% -0.48% 0.80% -0.53% -0.51% 2.79%
  • 4. Commodities and Currency: Date USD GBP EURO YEN Crude (Rs. per BBL) Gold (Rs. Per 10gms) 01/09/14 60.47 100.43 79.40 58.06 6240 27761 02/09/14 60.61 100.49 79.56 57.81 6216 27537 03/09/14 60.54 99.73 79.54 57.71 6082 27346 04/09/14 60.45 99.46 79.42 57.60 6222 27428 05/09/14 60.44 98.64 78.20 57.36 6156 27292 0.28% Rupee Appreciated 1.87% Rupee Appreciated 1.75% Rupee Appreciated 0.78% Rupee Appreciated -1.35% -1.69% Debt: Tenor Gilt Yield in % (Friday) Change in bps (Week) 1-Year 8.67 0 2-Year 8.61 15 5-Year 8.59 2 10-Year 8.52 1
  • 5. Varun Goel Jharna Agarwal Nupur Gupta Mahesh Gaddamedi Disclaimer The information and views presented here are prepared by Karvy Private Wealth (a division of Karvy Stock Broking Limited) or other Karvy Group companies. The information contained herein is based on our analysis and upon sources that we consider reliable. We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it. The investments discussed or recommended here may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own investment decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advice, as they believe necessary. While acting upon any information or analysis mentioned here, investors may please note that neither Karvy nor any person connected with any associated companies of Karvy accepts any liability arising from the use of this information and views mentioned here. The author, directors and other employees of Karvy and its affiliates may hold long or short positions in the above- mentioned companies from time to time. Every employee of Karvy and its associated companies are required to disclose their individual stock holdings and details of trades, if any, that they undertake. The team rendering corporate analysis and investment recommendations are restricted in purchasing/selling of shares or other securities till such a time this recommendation has either been displayed or has been forwarded to clients of Karvy. All employees are further restricted to place orders only through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd. The information given in this document on tax are for guidance only, and should not be construed as tax advice. Investors are advised to consult their respective tax advisers to understand the specific tax incidence applicable to them. We also expect significant changes in the tax laws once the new Direct Tax Code is in force this could change the applicability and incidence of tax on investments Karvy Private Wealth (A division of Karvy Stock Broking Limited) operates from within India and is subject to Indian regulations. Karvy Stock Broking Ltd. is a SEBI registered stock broker, depository participant having its offices at: 702, Hallmark Business plaza, Sant Dnyaneshwar Marg, Bandra (East), off Bandra Kurla Complex, Mumbai 400 051 . (Registered office Address: Karvy Stock Broking Limited, KARVY HOUSE, 46, Avenue 4, Street No.1, Banjara Hills, Hyderabad 500 034) SEBI registration Nos:NSE(CM):INB230770138, NSE(F&O): INF230770138, BSE: INB010770130, BSE(F&O): INF010770131,NCDEX(00236, NSE(CDS):INE230770138, NSDL SEBI Registration No: IN-DP-NSDL-247-2005, CSDL-SEBI Registration No:IN-DP-CSDL-305-2005, PMS Registration No.: INP000001512