1. The World This Week September 01 September 06, 2014
2. Equity View: The macro economic situation in Europe
continues to deteriorate. The GDP growth is almost down to zero and
the talks are indicating a triple-dip recession. The crisis was
aggravated by the Export ban imposed by EU countries on Russia
which was reciprocated in turn by Russia. This has led to a further
de- growth in some of the major economies. France, Italy and
Germany have seen a fresh hit to the macro economic growth. The
last quarter GDP growth for UK also took a dip. Considering this,
an economic stimulus was announced by the European Central Bank of
providing further cut in the interest rates. We believe this kind
of stimulus to continue for some more time. US, on the other hand,
continue to show aggressive economic growth. The US markets
continue to make life-time highs. The S&P crossed 2000-mark in
the last week and still trades above that level. There is a big
bull market rally playing out which is backed by the improving
macro-economic conditions there. We believe this situation in US to
improve and maintain our stance that the first interest rate hike
in the region would happen only in the middle of 2015. In India, Q2
earnings starting from the first week of October would be the next
trigger for the market. Until then global news would be driving the
markets.
3. News: DOMESTIC MACRO: RBI amends Basel III guidelines for
banks - Indian banks can now issue Tier 2 capital with a minimum
original maturity of 5 years as against 10 years previously, the
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said in a notification on Monday,
amending some guidelines on Basel III implementation in India.
India's rating seen limited by fiscal deficit, inflation - Moody's
Modi could do more to curb inflation - opinion poll. GLOBAL MACRO
EURO Central European PMIs point to slowdown as sanctions hit
sentiment. ECB cuts rates to ward off euro zone deflation threat -
The ECB cut its main refinancing rate to 0.05 percent from 0.15
percent. United States U.S. job growth brakes to eight-month low,
labor force shrinks - Nonfarm payrolls increased 142,000 last month
after expanding by 212,000 in July, the Labor Department said on
Friday. Most Wall Street firms see U.S. rate hike in second quarter
2015: Reuters poll. U.S. trade deficit smallest in six months on
rising exports. Japan Japan GDP seen revised down, raises concern
about tax hike plan. China China economy fears deepen as August
HSBC flash PMI at three-month low. Indices: Date Sensex Midcap Auto
Bankex CD CG FMCG HC IT Metals O&G Power Realty Teck 1/9/2014
26,868 9,445 17,522 18,326 9,331 15,323 7,352 13,380 10,124 12,595
11,365 2,095 1,774 5,635 2/9/2014 27,019 9,524 17,552 18,453 9,589
15,321 7,407 13,626 10,142 12,494 11,483 2,094 1,788 5,678 3/9/2014
27,140 9,605 17,670 18,430 9,631 15,444 7,363 13,667 10,395 12,639
11,485 2,093 1,826 5,803 4/9/2014 27,086 9,615 17,689 18,354 9,644
15,289 7,382 13,733 10,352 12,449 11,424 2,083 1,745 5,779 5/9/2014
27,027 9,669 17,573 18,298 9,660 15,421 7,359 13,760 10,405 12,534
11,456 2,084 1,765 5,792 0.59% 2.37% 0.29% -0.16% 3.53% 0.64% 0.09%
2.84% 2.78% -0.48% 0.80% -0.53% -0.51% 2.79%
4. Commodities and Currency: Date USD GBP EURO YEN Crude (Rs.
per BBL) Gold (Rs. Per 10gms) 01/09/14 60.47 100.43 79.40 58.06
6240 27761 02/09/14 60.61 100.49 79.56 57.81 6216 27537 03/09/14
60.54 99.73 79.54 57.71 6082 27346 04/09/14 60.45 99.46 79.42 57.60
6222 27428 05/09/14 60.44 98.64 78.20 57.36 6156 27292 0.28% Rupee
Appreciated 1.87% Rupee Appreciated 1.75% Rupee Appreciated 0.78%
Rupee Appreciated -1.35% -1.69% Debt: Tenor Gilt Yield in %
(Friday) Change in bps (Week) 1-Year 8.67 0 2-Year 8.61 15 5-Year
8.59 2 10-Year 8.52 1
5. Varun Goel Jharna Agarwal Nupur Gupta Mahesh Gaddamedi
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