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Stora Enso’s Interim Review for January - September 2011 published on 21 October 2011. Presentation.
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Financial results Q3 2011
21 October 2011
It should be noted that certain statements herein which are not historical facts, including, without
limitation those regarding expectations for market growth and developments; expectations for growth
and profitability; and statements preceded by “believes”, “expects”, “anticipates”, “foresees”, or similar
expressions, are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the United States Private Securities
Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Since these statements are based on current plans, estimates and
projections, they involve risks and uncertainties which may cause actual results to materially differ from
those expressed in such forward-looking statements. Such factors include, but are not limited to: (1)
operating factors such as continued success of manufacturing activities and the achievement of
efficiencies therein, continued success of product development, acceptance of new products or services
by the Group’s targeted customers, success of the existing and future collaboration arrangements,
changes in business strategy or development plans or targets, changes in the degree of protection
created by the Group’s patents and other intellectual property rights, the availability of capital on
acceptable terms; (2) industry conditions, such as strength of product demand, intensity of competition,
prevailing and future global market prices for the Group’s products and the pricing pressures thereto,
price fluctuations in raw materials, financial condition of the customers and the competitors of the
Group, the potential introduction of competing products and technologies by competitors; and (3)
general economic conditions, such as rates of economic growth in the Group’s principal geographic
markets or fluctuations in exchange and interest rates.
221 October 2011Financial results Q3 2011
Solid quarter
• EUR 204 million operating profit
excl. NRI and FV
• Strong cash flow after Capex
EUR 282 million
• Improved liquidity at EUR 1 181
million
• Increased curtailments to control
inventories
321 October 2011Financial results Q3 2011
Higher prices continue to support result
*excluding NRI and fair valuation
421 October 2011Financial results Q3 2011
0 %
2 %
4 %
6 %
8 %
10 %
0
60
120
180
240
300
EU
R m
illio
n
EBIT excl NRI and fair valuation EBIT margin*, % 4 Q avg
Early curtailments are importantOperative working capital
21 October 2011
*Operative working capital = trade receivables + inventories – trade payables
5Financial results Q3 2011
10,0 %
12,0 %
14,0 %
16,0 %
18,0 %
20,0 %
22,0 %
24,0 %
26,0 %
28,0 %
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 600
1 800
2 000
2 200
2 400
2 600
2 800
09Q1 09Q2 09Q3 09Q4 10Q1 10Q2 10Q3 10Q4 11Q1 11Q2 11Q3
EU
R m
illio
n
Operative Working Capital at the end of Q Working Capital per Sales ratio
0 %
2 %
4 %
6 %
8 %
10 %
90 % 91 % 92 % 93 % 94 % 95 % 96 % 97 % 98 %
EB
IT %
*
Operating Rate %
Q3 2011
Q3 2008
We have jumped the curve Operating Rate % vs. EBIT %*
21 October 2011Financial results Q3 2011 6
*Excluding NRIs and FV
Continued to increase flexibilityFY2007- Q3 YTD 2011
21 October 2011 7Financial results Q3 2011
0,22
0,24
0,26
0,28
0,30
FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 Q3 YTD 2011
Fix
ed
Co
sts
/Sa
les
Our market pulp and magazine paper deliveries up
21 October 2011Financial results Q3 2011 8
*Index is calculated average of paper and board deliveries (1 000 t) index and
the corrugated packaging deliveries (million m2) index. Includes Kotka mill.
** Includes Varkaus and Maxau mills
***Includes Kotka mill
**** Includes Kotka mill
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
Q3/10 Q2/11 Q3/11
IND
EX
Market pulp
85
90
95
100
105
110
Q3/10 Q2/11 Q3/11IN
DE
X
Magazine Paper***
96
97
98
99
100
101
Q3/10 Q2/11 Q3/11
IND
EX
Industrial Packaging*
85
90
95
100
105
110
Q3/10 Q2/11 Q3/11
IND
EX
Wood Products ****
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
Q3/10 Q2/11 Q3/11
IND
EX
Fine Paper
949698
100102104106108
Q3/10 Q2/11 Q3/11
IND
EX
Consumer Board
80
85
90
95
100
105
Q3/10 Q2/11 Q3/11
IND
EX
Newsprint**
Summary financials Q3 2011
EUR million III/2011 II/2011 III/2010Change %
Q311/Q310
Change %
Q311/Q211
Sales 2 739 2 817 2 624 4.4 -2.8
EBITDA, excl. NRI and fair valuations 339 358 366 -7.3 -5.1
Operating profit, excl. NRI and fair valuations 204 228 255 -19.9 -10.6
Profit before tax, excl. NRI 111 182 220 -49.7 -39.0
Loss/profit before tax -17 150.1 225.8 -107.7 -111.5
Earnings per share, excl. NRI (EUR) 0.10 0.21 0.23 -56.5 -52.4
ROCE, excl. NRI and fair valuations (%) 9.3 10.4 12.4 -25.0 -10.6
Cash flow from operations 362 207 304 19.1 74.7
Cash flow after investing activities 282 122 230 22.4 131.5
Debt/equity 0.45 0.41 0.43 4.7 9.8
921 October 2011Financial results Q3 2011
NRI = Non-recurring items
Fair valuations include synthetic options net of realised and open hedges,
CO2 emission rights, and valuations of biological assets related to forest assets in equity accounted investments
Operating profit by segments
EUR million III/2011 II/2011 III/2010Change %
Q311/Q310
Change %
Q311/Q211
Consumer Board 64 85 78 -17.0 -23.8
% of sales 10.3 12.8 13.1 -21.4 -19.5
Industrial Packaging 20 20 19 7.5 3.1
% of sales 7.9 8.1 8.3 -4.8 -2.5
Newsprint and Book Paper 34 28 0 n/m 22.2
% of sales 10.2 8.2 0.0 n/m 24.4
Magazine Paper 48 34 46 6.2 42.5
% of sales 8.6 6.6 8.4 2.4 30.3
Fine Paper 38 49 71 -46.7 -22.4
% of sales 7.1 9.2 12.6 -43.7 -22.8
Wood Products 10 35 25 -61.1 -72.2
% of sales 2.4 7.6 5.9 -59.3 -68.4
1021 October 2011Financial results Q3 2011
excluding non-recurring items
Solid platform for growth
SENA divestment closed in Q4 2007
Merchants divestment closed in Q2 2008
EBITDA: Continuing operations
Net debt: Total operations
1121 October 2011Financial results Q3 2011
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
6,0
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
4 500
5 000
EU
R m
illio
n
Net Debt Net Debt/EBITDA excl NRI and fair valuations
Near term outlook
• Our production curtailments to
control inventory levels have
increased in Q3 and will continue
in Q4
• EBIT excl. NRI and FV in Q4
estimated to be somewhat lower
year on year
Demand
development
Q4/11 vs
Q4/10
Price
development
Q4/11 vs
Q3/11
Consumer Board
Industrial
Packaging
Newsprint and
Book Paper
Coated
Magazine Paper
Uncoated
Magazine Paper
Coated Fine
Paper
Uncoated Fine
Paper
Wood Products
1221 October 2011Financial results Q3 2011
Solid third quarter
• Strong cash flow and balance
sheet
• Production curtailments continue
• Growth projects proceeding
1321 October 2011Financial results Q3 2011
Rethinking continues!
Cost inflation diminishing
Realised
Q3/11 vs
Q3/10
Realised
Q3/11 vs
Q2/11
Pulp wood
Sawlogs
RCP
Pulp
Chemicals
Energy
1621 October 2011Financial results Q3 2011
Net Financial Items
EUR million III/2011 II/2011 III/2010Change %
Q311/Q310
Change %
Q311/Q211
Net interest expense -35.9 -28.3 -23.9 -50.2 -26.9
Foreign exchange gains and losses -11.4 -0.7 -18.1 37.0 n/m
Other financial items, of which -146.1 -5.6 -9.1 n/m n/m
PIK notes 2.1 1.9 1.5
Fair valuation of interest rate derivates* -16.4 -3.3 4.3
Fair valuation of long-term debt -1.1 0.4 -2.6
NewPage lease provision -128.2 0.0 0.0
Other items -2.5 -4.6 -12.3
Total net financial items -193.4 -34.6 -51.1 n/m n/m
17
*Not hedge accounted interest rate derivatives.
21 October 2011Financial results Q3 2011
Softwood pulp prices still on high levelStora Enso’s market pulp is softwood
Source: FOEX
1821 October 2011Financial results Q3 2011
400
500
600
700
800
900
1 000
1 100
07Q
1
07Q
2
07Q
3
07Q
4
08Q
1
08Q
2
08Q
3
08Q
4
09Q
1
09Q
2
09Q
3
09Q
4
10Q
1
10Q
2
10Q
3
10Q
4
11Q
1
11Q
2
11Q
3
US
D/to
nn
e Bleached softwood kraft
pulp
Bleached hardwood kraft
pulp
Pulp wood and saw log prices decreased from Q2 2011Wood prices in Finland
Source: METLA
1921 October 2011Financial results Q3 2011
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
06Q
1
06Q
2
06Q
3
06Q
4
07Q
1
07Q
2
07Q
3
07Q
4
08Q
1
08Q
2
08Q
3
08Q
4
09Q
1
09Q
2
09Q
3
09Q
4
10Q
1
10Q
2
10Q
3
10Q
4
11Q
1
11Q
2
11Q
3
EU
R/m
3 Pulpwood, Pine
Sawlogs, Pine
Wood prices in Sweden
20
Pulpwood includes pine, spruce and birch.
Sawlogs include pine and spruce.
Source: SDC, Skogsstyrelsen
21 October 2011Financial results Q3 2011
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
06Q
1
06Q
2
06Q
3
06Q
4
07Q
1
07Q
2
07Q
3
07Q
4
08Q
1
08Q
2
08Q
3
08Q
4
09Q
1
09Q
2
09Q
3
09Q
4
10Q
1
10Q
2
10Q
3
10Q
4
11Q
1
11Q
2
11Q
3
SE
K/m
3 Pulpwood
Sawlogs
RCP prices decreasing from Q2 2011
German RCP price development, free delivered
Source: Verband Deutscher Papierfabriken/Stora Enso
2121 October 2011Financial results Q3 2011
0
40
80
120
160
200
07Q
1
07Q
2
07Q
3
07Q
4
08Q
1
08Q
2
08Q
3
08Q
4
09Q
1
09Q
2
09Q
3
09Q
4
10Q
1
10Q
2
10Q
3
10Q
4
11Q
1
11Q
2
11Q
3
EU
R/to
nn
e Mixed
OCC
De-inking
Capital expenditure and depreciationQ1 2008 – Q3 2011
2221 October 2011Financial results Q3 2011
0 %
2 %
4 %
6 %
8 %
10 %
0
50
100
150
200
250
EU
R m
illio
n
Capex Depreciation and impairment excl NRI Capex % of sales
Debt/equity
2005 – Q3 2011
Total operations
2321 October 2011Financial results Q3 2011
0,70
0,54
0,39
0,56
0,51
0,39 0,380,41
0,45
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011
Transaction risk and hedgesas at 30 September 2011
24
Operating Profit: Currency strengthening of + 10%
Based on estimated next 12 months net operating
cash flow exposure.
EUR million
USD 104
SEK -79
GBP 57
EUR million USD GBP SEK
Estimated annual net operating cash flow exposure 1 040 570 -790
Transaction hedges as at 30 September 2011 -560 -250 470
Hedging percentage as at 30 September 2011 for the next 12 months 54% 44% 59%
The sensitivity is based on estimated next 12 months net operating cash flow. The
calculation does not take into account currency hedges, and assumes no changes occur
other than a single currency exchange rate movement. Weakening would have the
opposite impact.
USD, GBP and SEK have additional hedges for 13-16 months which will increase the
hedging percentage 8%, 4% and 7% respectively.
21 October 2011Financial results Q3 2011
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1 000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019-2035 2036
Maturity profile
30 September 2011
€m Other loans / liabilities
EUR 750m 5.125% 2014
USD 300m 7.25% 2036
Bonds
EUR 390m E+4.21% 2016
USD 507m 6.404% 2016
Commercial paper
SEK 500m 3.5% 2015
SEK 1.4 bn S+3.7% 2015
SEK 2.4 bn 5.75% 2015
Revolving Credit Facility € 700 million matures in January 2014 and is fully undrawn
2521 October 2011Financial results Q3 2011
01020304050
Electricity Fuels
Internal External (hedged) External (non-hedged)
Energy balance Q3 2011
Self sufficiency 53% Self sufficiency 62%
Total energy self
sufficiency 60%
**) Remaining impact on non-hedged volume
21 October 2011Financial results Q3 2011
Impact** on operating profit from
10% change in:EUR million p.a.
Electricity market price ~8
Fossil fuel price ~14
27
Stora Enso Electricity procurement Q3 2011
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
2011 2012 2013 2014
GWh/a
Sales to market
Open position
Local tariff
Financial contracts
Physical contracts
PVO production
Own production