#pfsni

Financial Planning in Focus Conference

#pfsni

Negative rate anarchy in the UK?Lower for longerRichard RamseyChief Economist Northern Irelandwww.ulstereconomix.comrichard.ramsey@ulsterbankcm.comTwitter @UB_Economics

1975

LOWER FOR LONGER

Lower for longer 1. Interest rates2. Sterling3. Inflation4. Economic Growth5. Productivity6. Public Finances 7. Political Confidence8. Challenges & Opportunities?

Down, down, deeper and down…

Not so great expectations…

Interest rates on government debt falling to record lows

Sterling plunges…£ to remain lower for longer

InflationLow for not much longer!

Era of ‘lowflation’ has been and will soon be gone…

Cost of Living crisis went into reverse!

Oil tank prices fall to 11-year low but not for long

Cost of Living crisis been & gone but will it return?

Wages below 2009 levels for a while longer

Petrol prices set for 120 ppl and beyond

Oil price lows have passed. Higher prices in 2017…

The Cost of Living Crisis, Part Two?

“Cost of Living Crisis”

Commodity price collapse with only a modest pick-up

£1,500DEFUSEDFor Now

Consumer spending affected by income as well as earnings

Economic GrowthLower for longer!

Forecasts for 2017 lowered

NI’s economic recovery in context

1. Unemployment at an 8-year low

2. Employment rate has never been higher

3. More people in work than ever before

4. Economic inactivity rate has never been lower

5. Too many school leavers with low / no skills / qualifications

The highs & lows of the labour market?

ProductivityToo low for far too long!

The UK hasn’t been minding the productivity gap!

Public FinancesDeficits & DebtHigher for longer

Borrowing likely to be higher for longer…

…means national debt is growing higher for longer

£1,638,500,000,000

NI Tax – this low for how much longer?

Political confidence Even lower for even longer?

BREXIT …the known unknown

Populist politics is on the rise everywhere

Spotlight now on EU not just the UK

Challenges & Opportunities1. Consumer ‘sweet spot’ turning sour. C.O.L Crisis II & III

2. Slower growth – time to mind the productivity gap!

3. Public finances a mess… Austerity – lower for longer…

4. UK vulnerable to a negative economic shock – China?

5. Brexit means what exactly? Uncertainty for how long?

6. Political stability – US, UK & intra UK

7. Exploit new markets & new sectors on the rise

Slide 38

“A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty”

Winston Churchill

Out of every crisis springs opportunity

Slide 39

But will we grasp it?

Slide 41

DisclaimerThis document is intended for clients of Ulster Bank Limited and Ulster Bank Ireland Limited (together and separately, "Ulster Bank") and is not intended for any other person. It does not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase or sell any instrument or to provide any service in any jurisdiction where the required authorisation is not held. Ulster Bank and/or its associates and/or its employees may have a position or engage in transactions in any of the instruments mentioned.

The information including any opinions expressed and the pricing given, is indicative, and constitute our judgement at time of publication and are subject to change without notice. The information contained herein should not be construed as advice, and is not intended to be construed as such. This publication provides only a brief review of the complex issues discussed and recipients should not rely on information contained here without seeking specific advice on matters that concern them. Ulster Bank make no representations or warranties with respect to the information and disclaim all liability for use the recipient or their advisors make of the information. Over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives can involve a number of significant and complex risks which are dependent on the terms of the particular transaction and your circumstances. In the event the market has moved against the transaction you have undertaken, you may incur substantial costs if you wish to close out your position.

Calls may be recorded.

#pfsni

Financial Planning in Focus Conference