corporate foresight - an introduction

MBA course Manchester April 2008MBA course Manchester April 2008

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Ian MilesManchester Institute of Innovation Research, MBS

[email protected]

Foresight and Business Futures

MBA course Manchester April 2008


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Overview

• Foresight

• Foresight in Business

• Some examples


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Foresight• Foresight emerged as a major area of activity in mid 1990s.

Especially focused on national S&T programmes, with exercises in many large EU countries – and rapid diffusion more widely.

• Bringing together long-term prospectives analysis (15 years typical) with participatory methods and links to planning.

• But corporate Foresight has its own trajectories, and they mutually influence.

Japan number one

STI policy tools

Innovation system

Technological revolutions Technological problems

Distributed knowledge

Expertise and legitimacy


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What sort of Business Foresight?

Why should managers be concerned about the long-term (5y+) future?

Economic forecasts

Market trendspotting

Technology watch

Business environment scanning

Geopolitical outlook

Labour market assessment

Risk analysis


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Foresight for What?

Why should managers be concerned about the long-term (5y+) future?

Economic forecasts

Market trendspotting

Technology watch

Business environment scanning

Geopolitical outlook

Labour market assessment

Risk analysis


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Knowledge of Actual and Potential Evolution

Competitors

Clients Suppliers

Collaborators RegulatorsFinanciers Markets

Social & Institutional

Env

Natural & Physical

Env

Process Technology

Management

Organisational Structure/ Design

Routines

Techniques

Human Resources

Product Technology & Design

Health and Safety Sustainability

Business Ethics CSR

Science & Technology

Location


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Knowledge of Actual and Potential Evolution

Internal Environment

External Environment

Strategies

Formal versus informal foresight;

Routine versus emergency;

Internal“versus”

External

Trend detecting and watching –

main trends, weak signals

Envisaging possible and plausible futures

Opportunities as well as

challenges

- Coping with, changing,

creating the future


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Functions of Foresight

Public Relations

Building Markets

Influencing other

stakeholders –Regulators, financiers, business partners,

Standards-setters…

Building a shared vision of a desirable

future – or one to avoid at all costs

Selecting priorities

Designing strategies, assessing robustness

Different functions may require

different legitimation and expertise

Exchanging knowledge, creating awareness


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Some examples


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Shell

“Shell global scenarios … to 2020 explore the social consequences of three forces: globalisation, liberalisation and advancing technology. … to understand what that might look like, we needed to ask how real human beings will respond, and which social groups in the world may dominate those responses. Our scenario team studied this by thinking about ‘the three Rs’—the Regulations, Restraints and Rules which people may use to resist these trends. … we started from the concerns of our clients, to ensure that our work was consistent with their needs; then we gathered a wide range of data and challenging ideas from a variety of different sources, ensuring the involvement of a broad diversity of people and opinions.The world in Business Class focuses on efficiency and individual choice and is driven by an interconnected global elite influenced by US values and ideas. Prism describes a world shaped by the interplay of our differences, where countries find their own developments paths to suit their particular circumstances. In one, business success depends on focusing on the value-creating ‘core’ of the enterprise. The need to find and sustain elusive competitive advantage drives a relentless search for efficiency and innovation. In the other, multinational companies must be ‘local’ in many different environments. Access depends on relationships and reputation. Developing relationships and building trust are vital in both scenarios—with staff, customers, partners, suppliers, society and, of course, shareholders.… our scenario practice has reflected new, salient and challenging insights about the changing world. And this has contributed further to the strategic conversations ongoing at different levels in the organisation. As strategy has become a more devolved, inclusive and participatory process, so has our communication and application of scenarios”


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Daimler Chrysler

From Frank Ruff


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Daimler Chrysler

From Frank Ruff


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Swiss Re - SONAR


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Swiss Re - SONAR


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Few overviews but…

• Patrick Becker 2002 “Corporate Foresight in Europe: A First Overview” EC Working Paper

• 3 models: Collecting Post, Observatory, Think Tank• Methods: • Publication analyses; • Patent analyses ;

• Benchmarking analyses; • Market analyses, trend analyses; • Database research; • Company’s own, delimited Delphi

survey; • Technology Calendars and roadmaps; • Creativity techniques (Brainstorming, intuitive thinking); • Various scenario techniques; • Competitive technology intelligence (Technology monitoring); • Trend extrapolation; • Systems dynamics simulation;

• Multilinear modelling; • Internal innovation or future workshops; • Systematic questioning of customers;

• Risk analysis/ Cost analysis

• Note also Other methods – watching competitors, other sectors,, industry leaders


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Can managers afford NOT to?

• Dynamic changing environment, even for “mature” goods and services

• Opportunities to change and create futures

• Entrepreneurship needs Foresight: the only question is what sorts of Foresight, when and how!


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End of Presentation

Economy & Finance

corporate foresight - an introduction