Bloomberg Intelligence: East Meets West

Bloomberg IntelligenceEast Meets West

BLOOMBERG INTELLIGENCE | Analysts: Oliver Nugent & Kenneth Hoffman

Copper

Copper market defecit may end year at 100,000 metric tons


A Bloomberg Intelligence study of new mine supply projects a copper deficit of almost 100,000 metric tons this year.

Numerous delays to new mines ramping up and above-average disruptions at existing supply have dramatically shifted the situation from ICSG’s original forecast of a 405,000 mt surplus.

A rebound in Chinese demand adds to the squeeze though it must be adjusted for flows of bonded stocks, which suggest 5.2% global demand growth in 2014.


New copper supply / New mine data


Copper

Copper deficits may return by 2020 if demand beats 3.5% growth


The global copper market may return to deficit by 2020 if demand surpasses an average of 3.5% from 2015 on.

This compares with the previous four-year growth rate of 3.76% and an assumed 5.2% in 2014 based on year-to-date figures.

An apparent property slowdown in China may make this rate tough to achieve.

There are at least 14 projects in the new supply pipeline vulnerable to delays or cancellation, though, which could lower the threshold.


Copper supply and demand

BLOOMBERG INTELLIGENCE | Analysts: Yi Zhu & Kenneth Hoffman

Aluminum

China aluminium profit widens when producers use captive power


Aluminum production may be far more profitable with captive power, when the producer owns the plant, according to Bloomberg Intelligence analysis.

Captive power China smelters save an average of 2,700 yuan (about $436) per ton of aluminum produced vs. smelters using grid power, according to the BI Chinese Aluminum Profitability Index.

Northwest smelters in Xinjiang gain about 0.2 yuan per kilowatt hour vs. central China smelters in Henan, which pay more than 0.6 yuan.


New copper supply / New mine data


Aluminum

Xinjiang may see 50% of China aluminum capacity growth this year


China’s Xinjiang province may add 2.45 million tons of aluminum capacity this year, or 50% of the nationwide total, based on Bloomberg Intelligence calculations.

Expansion may have been even faster if the Xinjiang government hadn’t tightened approval regulations and implemented tiered electricity pricing in March.

Smelter construction may accelerate once dedicated power plants are completed, further boosting the province’s aluminum output.


Xinjiang to build new aluminum capacity of 2.45mn tons in 2014


Nickel

Indonesia may boost new smelter capacity by 56,000 mt by 2017


The nickel supply-demand balance hinges on Indonesian smelters after the country banned raw ore exports.

The Bloomberg Intelligence Indonesian Nickel smelter model attempts to discern the ramp-up by applying a proprietary score based on factors, including accessibility to power and the consistency of information from the companies and government.

This suggests 21,000 metric tons of contained nickel capacity may be added through 2015 and 56,000 mt by 2017.


New smelter pipeline in Indonesia


Nickel

Pipeline of nickel mine capacity set to peak in 2014 on demand


Bloomberg Intelligence calculates 169,000 million metric tons, or 25%, of committed nickel supply may reach the market this year, the lowest in five years.

The largest mines to ramp up include Vale’s Goro Mine, Highland Pacific’s Ramu, and Ambotovy, operated by Sherritt.

A further 680,000 mt of uncommitted supply could also appear if nickel prices continue higher. Supply additions are currently set to fall 78% in 2018 and 91% in 2020.


Incremental nickel supply

Bloomberg Intelligence offers valuable industry and company data, interactive charting and written analysis with government and credit insights from a team of independent experts, giving trading and investment professionals deep insight into where crucial industries stand today and where they may be heading next.

Economy & Finance

Bloomberg Intelligence: East Meets West