The The HIV/AIDS HIV/AIDS EpidemicEpidemic
© 2002 John B. Pryor© 2002 John B. Pryor
Illinois State UniversityIllinois State University
AIDS - AIDS - AAcquired cquired IImmune mmune DDeficiency eficiency SSyndromeyndrome
HIV - HIV - HHuman uman
IImmunodeficiencymmunodeficiency VVirusirus
Ways HIV is Transmitted:Ways HIV is Transmitted:1) through unprotected sexual intercourse1) through unprotected sexual intercourse
2) through sharing needles2) through sharing needles
3) through exposure to contaminated 3) through exposure to contaminated bloodblood
4) perinatal exposure4) perinatal exposure
5) mother’s milk5) mother’s milk
Ways you cannot transmit HIV:Ways you cannot transmit HIV:
1) mosquito bites1) mosquito bites
2) casual contact2) casual contact
3) toilet seats3) toilet seats
4) sharing food4) sharing food
Natural History of HIV/AIDSNatural History of HIV/AIDS
HIVHIVInfectionInfection
3-6 Weeks3-6 Weeks
Acute Acute HIVHIVSyndromeSyndrome
6 Months6 Months
PositivePositiveHIV TestHIV Test
9.8 Years9.8 Years 14.8 Years14.8 Years
ClinicalClinicalAIDSAIDS DeathDeath
May be extended by May be extended by new drug therapiesnew drug therapies
HIV/AIDS:HIV/AIDS:Recent US Recent US
TrendsTrendsRates of HIV/AIDS seems to be on the riseRates of HIV/AIDS seems to be on the rise
Estimated numbers of diagnoses of HIV/AIDS, by year of diagnosis and age
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
1999 2000 2001 2002
year
<13 13--14 15--24 25--34 35--44 45--54 55--64 ≥ 65
AGE
HIV/AIDSHIV/AIDSGlobal TrendsGlobal Trends
Global estimates for adults and childrenGlobal estimates for adults and childrenend 2002end 2002
People living with HIV/AIDSPeople living with HIV/AIDS
New HIV infections in 2002New HIV infections in 2002
Deaths due to HIV/AIDS in 2002Deaths due to HIV/AIDS in 2002
42 million
5 million
3.1 million
Adults and children estimated to be Adults and children estimated to be living living
with HIV/AIDS as of end 2002with HIV/AIDS as of end 2002
Total: 42 million
Western Europe
570 000570 000North Africa & Middle East
550 000550 000Sub-Saharan
Africa
29.4 29.4 millionmillion
Eastern Europe & Central Asia
1.2 million1.2 million
South & South-East Asia
6 million6 million
Australia & New Zealand
15 00015 000
North America
980 000980 000Caribbean
440 000440 000
Latin America
1.5 1.5 millionmillion
East Asia & Pacific
1.2 million1.2 million
Estimated number of adults and childrenEstimated number of adults and childrennewly infected with HIV during 2002newly infected with HIV during 2002
Total: 5 million
Western Europe
30 00030 000North Africa & Middle East
83 00083 000Sub-Saharan
Africa
3.5 3.5 millionmillion
Eastern Europe & Central Asia
250 000250 000East Asia & Pacific
270 000270 000South & South-East Asia
700 000700 000
Australia & New Zealand
500500
North America
45 00045 000Caribbean
60 00060 000
Latin America
150 000150 000
Estimated adult and child deaths Estimated adult and child deaths from HIV/AIDS during 2002from HIV/AIDS during 2002
Total: 3.1 million
Western Europe
8 0008 000North Africa & Middle East
37 00037 000Sub-Saharan
Africa
2.4 2.4 millionmillion
Eastern Europe &Central Asia
25 00025 000East Asia & Pacific
45 00045 000South & South-East Asia
440 000440 000
Australia & New Zealand
<100<100
North America
15 00015 000Caribbean
42 00042 000
Latin America
60 00060 000
HIV/AIDSHIV/AIDSGlobal TrendsGlobal Trends
in Childrenin Children
Children Children (<15 years)(<15 years) estimated to be living estimated to be living with HIV/AIDS as of end 2002with HIV/AIDS as of end 2002
Western Europe
5 0005 000North Africa & Middle East
40 00040 000sub-Saharan
Africa
2.8 2.8 millionmillion
Eastern Europe &Central Asia
16 00016 000East Asia & Pacific
4 0004 000South & South-East Asia
240 000240 000
Australia & New Zealand
< 200< 200
North America
10 00010 000Caribbean
20 00020 000
Latin America
45 00045 000
Total: 3.2 million
Estimated deaths in children (<15 years) from HIV/AIDS during 2002
Western Europe
< 100< 100North Africa & Middle East
6 8006 800sub-Saharan
Africa
550 000550 000
Eastern Europe &Central Asia
< 100< 100East Asia & Pacific
2 0002 000South & South-East Asia
43 00043 000
Australia & New Zealand
< 100< 100
North America
< 100< 100Caribbean
7 0007 000
Latin America
5 0005 000
Total: 610 000
Estimated number of children (<15 years) newly infected with HIV during 2002
Western Europe
< 500< 500North Africa & Middle East
13 00013 000sub-Saharan
Africa
720 000720 000
Eastern Europe &Central Asia
1 0001 000East Asia & Pacific
3 0003 000South & South-East Asia
60 00060 000
Australia & New Zealand
< 100< 100
North America
< 500< 500Caribbean
7 0007 000
Latin America
10 00010 000
Total: 800 000
HIV/AIDSHIV/AIDSTrends in Trends in
AfricaAfrica
Spread of HIV in sub-Saharan Africa, 1987Spread of HIV in sub-Saharan Africa, 1987
Estimated percentage of Estimated percentage of adults adults
(15–49) infected with HIV(15–49) infected with HIV
Estimated percentage of Estimated percentage of adults adults
(15–49) infected with HIV(15–49) infected with HIV 16.0% – 32.0%16.0% – 32.0%
8.0% – 16.0%8.0% – 16.0%
2.0% – 8.0%2.0% – 8.0%
0.5% – 2.0%0.5% – 2.0%
0% – 0.5%0% – 0.5%
trend data trend data
unavailableunavailable
outside regionoutside region
16.0% – 32.0%16.0% – 32.0%
8.0% – 16.0%8.0% – 16.0%
2.0% – 8.0%2.0% – 8.0%
0.5% – 2.0%0.5% – 2.0%
0% – 0.5%0% – 0.5%
trend data trend data
unavailableunavailable
outside regionoutside region World HealthOrganizationWorld HealthOrganization UNAIDS–Addis–May 1999UNAIDS–Addis–May 1999
Spread of HIV in sub-Saharan Africa, 1997Spread of HIV in sub-Saharan Africa, 1997
Estimated percentage of Estimated percentage of adults adults
(15–49) infected with HIV(15–49) infected with HIV
Estimated percentage of Estimated percentage of adults adults
(15–49) infected with HIV(15–49) infected with HIV 16.0% – 32.0%16.0% – 32.0%
8.0% – 16.0%8.0% – 16.0%
2.0% – 8.0%2.0% – 8.0%
0.5% – 2.0%0.5% – 2.0%
0% – 0.5%0% – 0.5%
trend data trend data
unavailableunavailable
outside regionoutside region
16.0% – 32.0%16.0% – 32.0%
8.0% – 16.0%8.0% – 16.0%
2.0% – 8.0%2.0% – 8.0%
0.5% – 2.0%0.5% – 2.0%
0% – 0.5%0% – 0.5%
trend data trend data
unavailableunavailable
outside regionoutside region World HealthOrganizationWorld HealthOrganization UNAIDS–Addis–May 1999UNAIDS–Addis–May 1999
Leading causes of death in Africa, Leading causes of death in Africa, 19991999
11 HIV/AIDSHIV/AIDS 2 2 Acute lower respiratory infectionsAcute lower respiratory infections 3 3 MalariaMalaria 4 4 Diarrhoeal diseasesDiarrhoeal diseases 5 5 Perinatal conditionsPerinatal conditions 6 6 MeaslesMeasles 7 7 TuberculosisTuberculosis 8 8 Cerebrovascular diseaseCerebrovascular disease 9 9 Ischaemic heart diseaseIschaemic heart disease 10 10 Maternal conditionsMaternal conditions
20.6 20.6
10.310.3
9.19.1
7.37.3
5.95.9
4.94.9
3.43.4
3.23.2
3.03.0
2.42.4
Source: The World Health Report 2000, WHO
Rank % of total
Changes in life expectancy in selected African Changes in life expectancy in selected African countries with high HIV prevalence, 1950 to 2000countries with high HIV prevalence, 1950 to 2000
South-AfricaSouth-Africa
3535
4040
4545
5050
5555
6060
6565
1950-551950-55 1955-601955-601960-651960-651965-701965-701970-751970-751975-801975-801980-851980-851985-901985-901990-951990-951995-001995-00
Lif
e e
xp
ecta
ncy
at
bir
th,
in y
ears
Lif
e e
xp
ecta
ncy
at
bir
th,
in y
ears
BotswanaBotswana
UgandaUganda
ZambiaZambia
ZimbabweZimbabwe
Source: Source: United Nations Population Division, 1998United Nations Population Division, 1998
Reduction in production in a household Reduction in production in a household with an AIDS death, Zimbabwewith an AIDS death, Zimbabwe
CropsCrops MaizeMaize CottonCotton VegetablesVegetables GroundnutsGroundnuts Cattle ownedCattle owned
Reduction in outputReduction in output
61%61%
47%47%
49%49%
37%37%
29%29%
Source: Stover & Bollinger, 1999
HIV/AIDSHIV/AIDSTrends Trends
inin
Annual number of newly registered HIV Annual number of newly registered HIV infections, infections,
Russia, 1993 to 1999Russia, 1993 to 1999
108 158 196
1,546
4,399 3,947
15,462
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
93 94 95 96 97 98 99
Year of registration
Nu
mb
er o
f H
IV i
nfe
ctio
ns
Source: Russian Federal AIDS Centre, Moscow