The HIV/AIDS Epidemic © 2002 John B. Pryor Illinois State University

The The HIV/AIDS HIV/AIDS EpidemicEpidemic

© 2002 John B. Pryor© 2002 John B. Pryor

Illinois State UniversityIllinois State University

AIDS - AIDS - AAcquired cquired IImmune mmune DDeficiency eficiency SSyndromeyndrome

HIV - HIV - HHuman uman

IImmunodeficiencymmunodeficiency VVirusirus

Ways HIV is Transmitted:Ways HIV is Transmitted:1) through unprotected sexual intercourse1) through unprotected sexual intercourse

2) through sharing needles2) through sharing needles

3) through exposure to contaminated 3) through exposure to contaminated bloodblood

4) perinatal exposure4) perinatal exposure

5) mother’s milk5) mother’s milk

Ways you cannot transmit HIV:Ways you cannot transmit HIV:

1) mosquito bites1) mosquito bites

2) casual contact2) casual contact

3) toilet seats3) toilet seats

4) sharing food4) sharing food

Natural History of HIV/AIDSNatural History of HIV/AIDS

HIVHIVInfectionInfection

3-6 Weeks3-6 Weeks

Acute Acute HIVHIVSyndromeSyndrome

6 Months6 Months

PositivePositiveHIV TestHIV Test

9.8 Years9.8 Years 14.8 Years14.8 Years

ClinicalClinicalAIDSAIDS DeathDeath

May be extended by May be extended by new drug therapiesnew drug therapies

HIV/AIDS:HIV/AIDS:Recent US Recent US

TrendsTrendsRates of HIV/AIDS seems to be on the riseRates of HIV/AIDS seems to be on the rise

Estimated numbers of diagnoses of HIV/AIDS, by year of diagnosis and age

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

1999 2000 2001 2002

year

<13 13--14 15--24 25--34 35--44 45--54 55--64 ≥ 65

AGE

HIV/AIDSHIV/AIDSGlobal TrendsGlobal Trends

Global estimates for adults and childrenGlobal estimates for adults and childrenend 2002end 2002

People living with HIV/AIDSPeople living with HIV/AIDS

New HIV infections in 2002New HIV infections in 2002

Deaths due to HIV/AIDS in 2002Deaths due to HIV/AIDS in 2002

42 million

5 million

3.1 million

Adults and children estimated to be Adults and children estimated to be living living

with HIV/AIDS as of end 2002with HIV/AIDS as of end 2002

Total: 42 million

Western Europe

570 000570 000North Africa & Middle East

550 000550 000Sub-Saharan

Africa

29.4 29.4 millionmillion

Eastern Europe & Central Asia

1.2 million1.2 million

South & South-East Asia

6 million6 million

Australia & New Zealand

15 00015 000

North America

980 000980 000Caribbean

440 000440 000

Latin America


East Asia & Pacific

1.2 million1.2 million

Estimated number of adults and childrenEstimated number of adults and childrennewly infected with HIV during 2002newly infected with HIV during 2002

Total: 5 million

Western Europe



Africa


Eastern Europe & Central Asia

250 000250 000East Asia & Pacific

270 000270 000South & South-East Asia

700 000700 000


500500

North America

45 00045 000Caribbean

60 00060 000

Latin America

150 000150 000

Estimated adult and child deaths Estimated adult and child deaths from HIV/AIDS during 2002from HIV/AIDS during 2002

Total: 3.1 million

Western Europe



Africa


Eastern Europe &Central Asia



440 000440 000


<100<100

North America


42 00042 000

Latin America

60 00060 000

HIV/AIDSHIV/AIDSGlobal TrendsGlobal Trends

in Childrenin Children

Children Children (<15 years)(<15 years) estimated to be living estimated to be living with HIV/AIDS as of end 2002with HIV/AIDS as of end 2002

Western Europe


40 00040 000sub-Saharan

Africa





240 000240 000


< 200< 200

North America


20 00020 000

Latin America

45 00045 000

Total: 3.2 million

Estimated deaths in children (<15 years) from HIV/AIDS during 2002

Western Europe

< 100< 100North Africa & Middle East


Africa

550 000550 000


< 100< 100East Asia & Pacific


43 00043 000


< 100< 100

North America

< 100< 100Caribbean

7 0007 000

Latin America

5 0005 000

Total: 610 000

Estimated number of children (<15 years) newly infected with HIV during 2002

Western Europe

< 500< 500North Africa & Middle East


Africa

720 000720 000




60 00060 000


< 100< 100

North America

< 500< 500Caribbean

7 0007 000

Latin America

10 00010 000

Total: 800 000

HIV/AIDSHIV/AIDSTrends in Trends in

AfricaAfrica

Spread of HIV in sub-Saharan Africa, 1987Spread of HIV in sub-Saharan Africa, 1987

Estimated percentage of Estimated percentage of adults adults

(15–49) infected with HIV(15–49) infected with HIV


(15–49) infected with HIV(15–49) infected with HIV 16.0% – 32.0%16.0% – 32.0%

8.0% – 16.0%8.0% – 16.0%

2.0% – 8.0%2.0% – 8.0%

0.5% – 2.0%0.5% – 2.0%

0% – 0.5%0% – 0.5%

trend data trend data

unavailableunavailable

outside regionoutside region

16.0% – 32.0%16.0% – 32.0%

8.0% – 16.0%8.0% – 16.0%

2.0% – 8.0%2.0% – 8.0%

0.5% – 2.0%0.5% – 2.0%

0% – 0.5%0% – 0.5%



outside regionoutside region World HealthOrganizationWorld HealthOrganization UNAIDS–Addis–May 1999UNAIDS–Addis–May 1999

Spread of HIV in sub-Saharan Africa, 1997Spread of HIV in sub-Saharan Africa, 1997


(15–49) infected with HIV(15–49) infected with HIV


(15–49) infected with HIV(15–49) infected with HIV 16.0% – 32.0%16.0% – 32.0%

8.0% – 16.0%8.0% – 16.0%

2.0% – 8.0%2.0% – 8.0%

0.5% – 2.0%0.5% – 2.0%

0% – 0.5%0% – 0.5%



outside regionoutside region

16.0% – 32.0%16.0% – 32.0%

8.0% – 16.0%8.0% – 16.0%

2.0% – 8.0%2.0% – 8.0%

0.5% – 2.0%0.5% – 2.0%

0% – 0.5%0% – 0.5%



outside regionoutside region World HealthOrganizationWorld HealthOrganization UNAIDS–Addis–May 1999UNAIDS–Addis–May 1999

Leading causes of death in Africa, Leading causes of death in Africa, 19991999

11 HIV/AIDSHIV/AIDS 2 2 Acute lower respiratory infectionsAcute lower respiratory infections 3 3 MalariaMalaria 4 4 Diarrhoeal diseasesDiarrhoeal diseases 5 5 Perinatal conditionsPerinatal conditions 6 6 MeaslesMeasles 7 7 TuberculosisTuberculosis 8 8 Cerebrovascular diseaseCerebrovascular disease 9 9 Ischaemic heart diseaseIschaemic heart disease 10 10 Maternal conditionsMaternal conditions

20.6 20.6

10.310.3

9.19.1

7.37.3

5.95.9

4.94.9

3.43.4

3.23.2

3.03.0

2.42.4

Source: The World Health Report 2000, WHO

Rank % of total

Changes in life expectancy in selected African Changes in life expectancy in selected African countries with high HIV prevalence, 1950 to 2000countries with high HIV prevalence, 1950 to 2000

South-AfricaSouth-Africa

3535

4040

4545

5050

5555

6060

6565

1950-551950-55 1955-601955-601960-651960-651965-701965-701970-751970-751975-801975-801980-851980-851985-901985-901990-951990-951995-001995-00

Lif

e e

xp

ecta

ncy

at

bir

th,

in y

ears

Lif

e e

xp

ecta

ncy

at

bir

th,

in y

ears

BotswanaBotswana

UgandaUganda

ZambiaZambia

ZimbabweZimbabwe

Source: Source: United Nations Population Division, 1998United Nations Population Division, 1998

Reduction in production in a household Reduction in production in a household with an AIDS death, Zimbabwewith an AIDS death, Zimbabwe

CropsCrops MaizeMaize CottonCotton VegetablesVegetables GroundnutsGroundnuts Cattle ownedCattle owned

Reduction in outputReduction in output

61%61%

47%47%

49%49%

37%37%

29%29%

Source: Stover & Bollinger, 1999

HIV/AIDSHIV/AIDSTrends Trends

inin

Annual number of newly registered HIV Annual number of newly registered HIV infections, infections,

Russia, 1993 to 1999Russia, 1993 to 1999

108 158 196

1,546

4,399 3,947

15,462

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

93 94 95 96 97 98 99

Year of registration

Nu

mb

er o

f H

IV i

nfe

ctio

ns

Source: Russian Federal AIDS Centre, Moscow

Documents

The HIV/AIDS Epidemic © 2002 John B. Pryor Illinois State University