German Environment Agency
Power-to-Liquids – Potentials and Perspectives
T&E workshop long-term strategies to decarbonise aviation
Dr. Harry Lehmann
General Director of Division “Environmental Planning and Sustainability Strategies”
The Paris Agreement
2
Power-to-Liquids – Potentials and Perspectives for the Future Supply of Renewable Aviation Fuel
• Goal: well below 2 °C / limit 1.5 °C
• Means decarbonization of all major industries !!!
• developed countries such as Germany: GHG reduction of up to 95 % by 2050.
source: www.un.org
T&E Workshop “Decarbonization of Aviation” 23rd January 2018
2050 Energiewende targets in 2017
Climate Action Plan 2050
Million t CO2 Equivalent
all sectors have to contribute
UBA-Study: GHG-neutral Germany in 2050
Source: UBA 2014
PT X
Electricity
Industry
Waste
Transport Heating Cooling
Land Use
Agriculture
UBA-Study: GHG-neutral Germany in 2050
Source: UBA 2014
PT X
Electricity
Industry
Waste
Transport Heating Cooling
Land Use
Agriculture
cross sectoral coupling needed
The Climate Challenge of Aviation (CO2 only)
8
Paris Pathway (CO2 only)
ICAO Pathway (CO2 only)
2010 2020 2030 2040
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
Interna<
onal Avia<
on Net CO2 E
mission
s (M
T)
AircraD Technology
Opera<onal Improvements
Sustainable Alterna<ve Fuels and Market-‐Based Measures
• ICAO: Carbon Neutral Growth from 2020 = no reduction • Alarming gap between ICAO and Paris Agreement
source: ICAO with own modification
Power-to-Liquids – Potentials and Perspectives for the Future Supply of Renewable Aviation Fuel
T&E Workshop “Decarbonization of Aviation” 23rd January 2018
Climate Impact of Aviation
9
CO2
O3
CH4 NOx
total
Soot
Contrails
Cirrus
Sulphate
total
Incl. Cirrus
Water vapour
sour
ce: Lee et a
l. 2009 with
own mod
ifica<o
n
Power-to-Liquids – Potentials and Perspectives for the Future Supply of Renewable Aviation Fuel
T&E Workshop “Decarbonization of Aviation” 23rd January 2018
The Climate Challenge of Aviation (CO2 + Non-CO2)
10
Paris-‐Pathway
ICAO-‐Pathway
2010 2020 2030 2040
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
Interna<
onal Avia<
on Net CO2 E
mission
s (M
T)
• Non-CO2 impact at least as large as CO2 impact of aviation • carbon neutral growth ≠ climate neutral growth
source: ICAO with own modification
Power-to-Liquids – Potentials and Perspectives for the Future Supply of Renewable Aviation Fuel
T&E Workshop “Decarbonization of Aviation” 23rd January 2018
Why PtL Fuels?
11
Top priorities: 1. avoid flights 2. shift to other modes of transport 3. use efficiency potentials of aviation
Not sufficient for Paris goals. Aviation needs in addition sustainable
alternative fuels
Biofuels: Not sustainable if produced on a large scale (cultivated biomass)
PtL Fuels: Could supply aviation but requires research, investments and cost degression
Strategic decision
Power-to-Liquids – Potentials and Perspectives for the Future Supply of Renewable Aviation Fuel
T&E Workshop “Decarbonization of Aviation” 23rd January 2018
What are „Power-to-Liquids“?
source: LBST/BHL, 2016
12
Electricity generation
Hydrogen production CO2 supply Synthesis &
conditioning PtL jet fuel
Water CO2
PtL H2 e-
Power-to-Liquids – Potentials and Perspectives for the Future Supply of Renewable Aviation Fuel
T&E Workshop “Decarbonization of Aviation” 23rd January 2018
GHG Emissions
13
87.5 103.4 101.0
194.8
[DATENREIHENNAME]
Crude Oil Oil Sand Natural Gas to Liquid Coal to Liquid Power to Liquid
GHG Emissions [gCO2eq/MJ]
Source: adapted from LBST/BHL, 2016
Power-to-Liquids – Potentials and Perspectives for the Future Supply of Renewable Aviation Fuel
T&E Workshop “Decarbonization of Aviation” 23rd January 2018
Lifecycle GHG Emissions
Input Presentation: Power-to-Liquids (PtL)
UNFCCC - COP23 Side Event “Decarbonisation of Aviation” 08 Nov 2017 - German Pavilion 3
0
50
100
150
200
250
Crude Oil Oil Sand Natural Gas-to-Liquid
Coal-to-Liquid Power-to-Liquids
GH
G e
mis
sion
s in
gC
O2e
q/MJ
Source: adapted from LBST/BHL, 2016
87,5 103,4 101
194,8
11-28
Land Use
15
Source: LBST/BHL, 2016
Power-to-Liquids – Potentials and Perspectives for the Future Supply of Renewable Aviation Fuel
T&E Workshop “Decarbonization of Aviation” 23rd January 2018
Water Demand
16
Source: LBST/BHL, 2016
Power-to-Liquids – Potentials and Perspectives for the Future Supply of Renewable Aviation Fuel
T&E Workshop “Decarbonization of Aviation” 23rd January 2018
17
Power-to-Liquids – Potentials and Perspectives for the Future Supply of Renewable Aviation Fuel
Kerosene 2010
Kerosene 2050
BTL PTL LH2
Upper Estimate
Lower Estimate
0.07
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
0.00
€ 201
0/MJ
Liquid Hydrogen (LH2) - Competitive Costs
T&E Workshop “Decarbonization of Aviation” 23rd January 2018
Source: UBA Texte 30/2015
Technology Readiness Level (TRL)
18
• PtL produced from concentrated CO2 sources: TRL 8 – 9
• PtL full system integration recently progressing due to demonstration plants in Iceland, Finland, Germany and soon in Norway
• Improved processes for CO2 extraction from air and high-temperature electrolysis at demonstration/development level
Power-to-Liquids – Potentials and Perspectives for the Future Supply of Renewable Aviation Fuel
T&E Workshop “Decarbonization of Aviation” 23rd January 2018
Recent Outcomes
Power-to-Liquids – Potentials and Perspectives for the Future Supply of Renewable Aviation Fuel
States are encouraged to foster development of innovative technological pathways to produce SAF from sources such as renewable electricity, while additional efforts should be made to scale up the market of these fuels.
Economies and Scalability
20
Source: adapted from LBST/BHL 2016
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Crude Oil Concentrated CO2 source Direct air capture of CO2
Jet fuel costs projected for future PtL plants in 2050 [€/t]
today
2050
Power-to-Liquids – Potentials and Perspectives for the Future Supply of Renewable Aviation Fuel
T&E Workshop “Decarbonization of Aviation” 23rd January 2018
LH2 for Aviation
21
• Pro: Lower costs and higher conversion efficiency than PtL
• Con: Requires at least 4 times compared to tank volume of kerosene
• Crucial Disadvantage: incompatible to existing aircraft and infrastructure
• Due to long development times and product life cycles of new aircraft: In 2050 LH2 powered aircraft could be only a niche (best case).
Power-to-Liquids – Potentials and Perspectives for the Future Supply of Renewable Aviation Fuel
[DATENREIHENNAME]
[DATENREIHENNAME]
Hydrogen Liquid
0
10
20
30
40
0 50 100 150
Volu
met
ric E
nerg
y D
ensi
ty [M
J/l]
Gravimeric Energy Density [MJ/kg]
Source: CRYOPLANE Project Airbus
T&E Workshop “Decarbonization of Aviation” 23rd January 2018
Strategic Thoughts
22
• Aviation needs sustainable strategy
• Avoid new acceptance problems
• Early course setting for investments
• Sustainable large-scale biofuels unrealistic
• Focus on PtL
• Intensify R&D
• PtL useful for other modes, too (e.g. ships)
Power-to-Liquids – Potentials and Perspectives for the Future Supply of Renewable Aviation Fuel
T&E Workshop “Decarbonization of Aviation” 23rd January 2018
How to promote PtL?
23
• Information of all stakeholders about the potentials of PtL
• Pilot and demo facilities
• Research funding (specific technologies e.g. high-temperature electrolysis)
• Potential market entry facilitation
• Monetary incentives • CORSIA • ETS • Kerosene tax for fossil fuels
• Regulatory measures
Power-to-Liquids – Potentials and Perspectives for the Future Supply of Renewable Aviation Fuel
T&E Workshop “Decarbonization of Aviation” 23rd January 2018
UBA Studies
24
Power-to-Liquids – Potentials and Perspectives for the Future Supply of Renewable Aviation Fuel
T&E Workshop “Decarbonization of Aviation” 23rd January 2018
1/30/18 / Hier steht der Veranstaltungstitel in 12 Punkt 25
A resource efficient pathway towards a greenhouse gas neutral Germany is possible !
0
150
300
450
600
750
0
50
100
150
200
250
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
PtG
/PtL
(met
han
and
fuel
s) in
TW
h
inst
alle
d ca
paci
ty in
GW
GreenEe-Scenario - Import
/ Workshop Decarbonisation
A resource efficient pathway towards a greenhouse gas neutral Germany
generated PtG/L
1/30/18 / Hier steht der Veranstaltungs<tel in 12 Punkt 27
Thank You
Dr. Harry Lehmann
harry.lehmann @ uba.de
Studies: https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/en/publikationen/power-to-liquids-potentials-perspectives-for-the
https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/377/publikationen/uba_position_powertoliquid_engl.pdf