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Oil Market ReportPreparing for the worst
2 FEBRUARY 2012
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SEB Oil Market Report
Crude oil market
The current oil price includes little or no Iranian-related risk premium. Ahead of the EU import bandate (July 1) we expect it to remain at or above its
current level, given the ease with which Iran canslow or disrupt oil supplies through the Strait ofHormuz or to Europe at short notice. At present,OPEC is producing above its December target andthere are good reasons to expect it will continue todo so. High production levels are increasing themarkets ability of withstand major supply shocksand making it easier for countries worldwide to jointhe Iranian oil embargo, a development clearly tothe advantage of many OPEC countries. Supplydisruption risk is currently offset by high OPECproduction.
Current OPEC output is estimated at 30.9 mb/d, some0.9 mb/d above the target set in December 2011.Thereare several reasons why it is in Saudi Arabias interest tomaintain high production going forward.
Firstly, Saudi Arabia is no friend of Iran and fears thepossibility of it possessing nuclear arms. Obviously, theyare keen to support efforts to impose an oil embargo.Success may either weaken Iran or cause the currentregime to fall, both positive outcomes for Saudi Arabia.By maintaining high production Saudi Arabia reassuresoil consumers that supply is and will remain readily
available, making it easier for major net oil importerssuch as India, China and South Korea to support theembargo.
Secondly, Saudi Arabia wishes to ensure global oil stocksare replenished following last years draw down so the oilmarket is best placed to withstand possible new oilsupply disruptions and price spikes later this year.Current concerns include Iran and potentially Iraq,Nigeria and Sudan.
Thirdly, increased supply could result in a lower oil price,directly affecting the already weak Iranian economywhile avoiding exerting similar pressure on Saudi Arabia.
However, we do not believe increased OPEC productionwill result in lower oil prices at present, at least whilesupply disruption risk from Iran continues to dominatemarket sentiment. Little is needed for it to drive oil priceshigher. Effective action may include slowing the flow ofoil through the Strait of Hormuz by, for example,searching oil tankers for drugs. While high OPECproduction is helping protect the oil market againstsupply disruptions it is also ensuring the cartels reservecapacity remains low, at currently 3.3 mb/d. In our view,
current price risk is skewed to the upside.
Crude oil priceCrude oil priceCrude oil priceCrude oil price(NYMEX/ICE, $/b, front month, daily closing)
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115120
125
130
jan-1
0
feb
-10
mar-
10
apr-
10
ma
j-10
jun-1
0
jul-10
aug-1
0
sep-1
0
okt-10
nov-1
0
dec-1
0
jan-1
1
feb
-11
mar-
11
apr-
11
ma
j-11
jun-1
1
jul-11
aug-1
1
sep-1
1
okt-11
nov-1
1
dec-1
1
jan-1
2
NYMEXWTI
ICE Brent
IEA gIEA gIEA gIEA global crude oil demand estimateslobal crude oil demand estimateslobal crude oil demand estimateslobal crude oil demand estimates(mb/d)
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
jan-0
9
apr-
09
jul-09
okt-09
jan-1
0
apr-
10
jul-10
okt-10
jan-1
1
apr-
11
jul-11
okt-11
jan-1
2
2009 2010 2011 2012
Chart Sources: IEA, Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research
MonthlyMonthlyMonthlyMonthly global crude oil demand estimatesglobal crude oil demand estimatesglobal crude oil demand estimatesglobal crude oil demand estimates
2011
(mb/d)
Revision
(kb/d)
2012
(mb/d)
Revision
(kb/d)IEA 89.0 -30 90.0 -220EIA 88.11 -20 89.38 -140
OPEC 87.84 +40 88.90 +30
SEBSEBSEBSEB averageaverageaverageaverage Brent crudeBrent crudeBrent crudeBrent crude oiloiloiloil price forecastprice forecastprice forecastprice forecast
($/b) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FullYear
2012 110 110 115 120 1142013 - - - - 120
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Crude oilCrude oil priceCrude oil priceCrude oil priceCrude oil price(NYMEX/ICE, $/b, front month, weekly closing)
12 month12 month12 month12 month time spreadtime spreadtime spreadtime spread(NYMEX/ICE, %, daily closing, >1: contango,
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Crude oilUS crude oil inventoriesUS crude oil inventoriesUS crude oil inventoriesUS crude oil inventories(DOE, mb, weekly data)
OOOOECDECDECDECD totaltotaltotaltotal industry oil stocksindustry oil stocksindustry oil stocksindustry oil stocks(mb, monthly data)
310
320
330
340
350
360
370
380
j f m a m j j a s o n d
5 year average
2011
2012
c
2500
2525
2550
2575
2600
2625
2650
2675
2700
2725
2750
2775
2800
j f m a m j j a s o n d
5 year range, top
5 year range, bottom
2011
5 year average
OECDOECDOECDOECD EuropeEuropeEuropeEurope industry oil stocksindustry oil stocksindustry oil stocksindustry oil stocks(mb, monthly data)
OECDOECDOECDOECD North AmericaNorth AmericaNorth AmericaNorth America industry oil stocksindustry oil stocksindustry oil stocksindustry oil stocks(mb, monthly data)
890
900
910
920
930940
950
960
970
980
990
1000
1010
1020
j f m a m j j a s o n d
5 year range, top
5 year range, bottom
2011
5 year average
1175
1200
1225
1250
1275
1300
1325
1350
1375
1400
j f m a m j j a s o n d
5 year range, top
5 year range, bottom
2011
5 year average
OECDOECDOECDOECD Asia &Asia &Asia &Asia & OceaniaOceaniaOceaniaOceania industry oil stocksindustry oil stocksindustry oil stocksindustry oil stocks(mb, monthly data)
OPEC productionOPEC productionOPEC productionOPEC production(kb/d, monthly data)
375
380
385390395400
405
410415
420425430
435440
445450455
460
465
j f m a m j j a s o n d
5 year range, top
5 year range, bottom
2011
5 year average
24000
26000
28000
30000
32000
34000
jan-0
8
mar-
08
ma
j-08
jul-08
sep-0
8
nov-0
8
jan-0
9
mar-
09
ma
j-09
jul-09
sep-0
9
nov-0
9
jan-1
0
mar-
10
ma
j-10
jul-10
sep-1
0
nov-1
0
jan-1
1
mar-
11
ma
j-11
jul-11
sep-1
1
nov-1
1
jan-1
2
OPEC-12 production
OPEC-11 production
Chart Sources: Bloomberg, IEA, SEB Commodity Research
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European oil product markets
After hitting multi-year lows in late 2011 refineryeconomics have improved, supported by refineryclosures in the Atlantic basin, strong Asian demand for
heavy products, colder weather in Europe and shut inNorth African light end supplies. While Petroplus,Europes largest independent refiner, has been the mostprominent victim of both adverse refinery economicsand the credit crunch, several US refineries have alsoshut down production temporarily. European refineries inparticular have been plagued by Asian competition, highmaintenance costs, and a structural mismatch betweenoutput and the present demand profile, i.e. inadequateproduction of middle distillates. More closures may benecessary to restore market equilibrium. Meanwhile, theproblem is exacerbated by weak demand due to slowEuropean growth, while a potential Iranian crude importembargo may result in price-discounted sales of crude toAsian competitors. Further, the Iranian issue couldgenerate more volatility affecting the entire l complex.
Light ends: The light end of the barrel has performedbest so far this year. The naphtha market tightenedrapidly in January as bad weather prevented shipmentsfrom the Algerian refinery in Skikada. Panic buying andshort covering sent prices higher though the situationnow looks likely to stabilise. Inventories are currently atmulti-year lows however. The stronger gasoline market isalso a bullish influence on its naphtha counterpart as
feedstock demand increases. According to CFTC dataspeculators are increasingly bullish towards gasolinewith Atlantic basin refinery closures, upcoming refinerymaintenance and increasing US and Middle Easterndemand all price supportive.
Middle distillates: At present, middle distillates are theweakest part of the barrel. Despite the colder weather,prices have remained largely unchanged with consumersnot yet needing to restock. Compared to light distillatesinventories are normal to high. US and European refineryclosures have been generally supportive and refinery
margins remain healthy. Despite continued relativelyweak European demand, we see risks for an increasinglytight global diesel market going forward. US implieddemand for heating oil has been strong since year-end.
Heavy ends: Seemingly limitless Asian demand for highsulphur fuel oil almost closed the high-low spread onseveral occasions in January, reducing Europeaninventories to seasonal multi-year lows. The big questionnow is whether demand will remain strong also after theChinese New Year. The heavy end of the barrel is alsosupported by Sudanese heavy sweet crude supplydisruptions. In Europe demand for high sulphur fuel oil
has weakened since Petroplus used it as feedstock.Cheap US natural gas maintains bearish pressure on lowsulphur fuel oil prices.
European lEuropean lEuropean lEuropean lightightightight endendendend benchmarksbenchmarksbenchmarksbenchmarks($/t, daily closing)
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
jan-1
0
feb
-10
mar-
10
apr-
10
ma
j-10
jun-1
0
jul-10
aug-1
0
sep-1
0
okt-10
nov-1
0
dec-1
0
jan-1
1
feb
-11
mar-
11
apr-
11
ma
j-11
jun-1
1
jul-11
aug-1
1
sep-1
1
okt-11
nov-1
1
dec-1
1
jan-1
2
feb
-12
Naphtha
Gasoline
European mEuropean mEuropean mEuropean middleiddleiddleiddle distillatedistillatedistillatedistillate benchmarksbenchmarksbenchmarksbenchmarks($/t, daily closing)
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
jan-1
0
feb
-10
mar-
10
apr-
10
ma
j-10
jun-1
0
jul-10
aug-1
0
sep-1
0
okt-10
nov-1
0
dec-1
0
jan-1
1
feb
-11
mar-
11
apr-
11
ma
j-11
jun-1
1
jul-11
aug-1
1
sep-1
1
okt-11
nov-1
1
dec-1
1
jan-1
2
feb
-12
Jet fuel
Diesel 10 ppm
Gasoil 0.1%
EuropeanEuropeanEuropeanEuropean fuel oilfuel oilfuel oilfuel oil benchmarksbenchmarksbenchmarksbenchmarks($/t, daily closing)
350
375
400
425
450
475
500
525
550
575
600
625
650675
700
725
750
jan-1
0
feb
-10
mar-
10
apr-
10
ma
j-10
jun-1
0
jul-10
aug-1
0
sep-1
0
okt-10
nov-1
0
dec-1
0
jan-1
1
feb
-11
mar-
11
apr-
11
ma
j-11
jun-1
1
jul-11
aug-1
1
sep-1
1
okt-11
nov-1
1
dec-1
1
jan-1
2
feb
-12
High sulphur fuel oil (3.5%)
Low sulphur fuel oil (1.0%)
Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research
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Oil productsUSUSUSUS ggggasoline and distillate inventoriesasoline and distillate inventoriesasoline and distillate inventoriesasoline and distillate inventories(DOE, mb, weekly data)
US producUS producUS producUS product benchmarkst benchmarkst benchmarkst benchmarks(NYMEX, /gal, front month, daily closing)
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
240
j f m a m j j a s o n d
Gasoline 5 year average
Gasoline 2012
Distillate fuel oil 5 year average
Distillate fuel oil 2012
180190200210220230240250260270280290300310320330
340350360
jan-1
0
feb
-10
mar-
10
apr-
10
ma
j-10
jun-1
0
jul-10
aug-1
0
sep-1
0
okt-10
nov-1
0
dec-1
0
jan-1
1
feb
-11
mar-
11
apr-
11
ma
j-11
jun-1
1
jul-11
aug-1
1
sep-1
1
okt-11
nov-1
1
dec-1
1
jan-1
2
Gasoline
Heating oil
US refinery utilizationUS refinery utilizationUS refinery utilizationUS refinery utilization(%, weekly data)
ICE Gasoil andICE Gasoil andICE Gasoil andICE Gasoil and European premiumsEuropean premiumsEuropean premiumsEuropean premiums to Gasoilto Gasoilto Gasoilto Gasoil($/t, daily closing)
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
j f m a m j j a s o n d
2007-2011 avg.
2012
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1000
1050
1100
jan-1
0
feb
-10
mar-
10
apr-
10
ma
j-10
jun-1
0
jul-10
aug-1
0
sep-1
0
okt-10
nov-1
0
dec-1
0
jan-1
1
feb
-11
mar-
11
apr-
11
ma
j-11
jun-1
1
jul-11
aug-1
1
sep-1
1
okt-11
nov-1
1
dec-1
1
jan-1
2
feb
-12
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
ICE Gasoil 0.1% (left)
Jet fuel premium(right)Diesel 10 ppmpremium(right)
EuropeanEuropeanEuropeanEuropean productproductproductproduct crackscrackscrackscracks($/b, daily closing)
European lEuropean lEuropean lEuropean lowowowow ---- hhhhighighighigh sulphursulphursulphursulphur fuel oilfuel oilfuel oilfuel oil differentialdifferentialdifferentialdifferential($/t, daily closing)
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
1015
20
25
30
jan-1
0
feb
-10
mar-
10
apr-
10
ma
j-10
jun-1
0
jul-10
aug-1
0
sep-1
0
okt-10
nov-1
0
dec-1
0
jan-1
1
feb
-11
mar-
11
apr-
11
ma
j-11
jun-1
1
jul-11
aug-1
1
sep-1
1
okt-11
nov-1
1
dec-1
1
jan-1
2
feb
-12
Naphtha GasolineJet fuel Gasoil 0.1%Low sulphur fuel oil High sulphur fuel oilDiesel 10 ppm
-15-10-505
101520253035404550
5560657075
jan-1
0
feb
-10
mar-
10
apr-
10
ma
j-10
jun-1
0
jul-10
aug-1
0
sep-1
0
okt-10
nov-1
0
dec-1
0
jan-1
1
feb
-11
mar-
11
apr-
11
ma
j-11
jun-1
1
jul-11
aug-1
1
sep-1
1
okt-11
nov-1
1
dec-1
1
jan-1
2
feb
-12
Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB C ommodity Research
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SEB Oil Market Report
Oil productsRegional 3Regional 3Regional 3Regional 3----2222----1 cracks1 cracks1 cracks1 cracks($/b, daily closing)
European naphtha stocksEuropean naphtha stocksEuropean naphtha stocksEuropean naphtha stocks(kt, monthly data)
-6-4-202468
1012141618202224262830
32343638
jan-1
0
feb
-10
mar-
10
apr-
10
ma
j-10
jun-1
0
jul-10
aug-1
0
sep-1
0
okt-10
nov-1
0
dec-1
0
jan-1
1
feb
-11
mar-
11
apr-
11
ma
j-11
jun-1
1
jul-11
aug-1
1
sep-1
1
okt-11
nov-1
1
dec-1
1
jan-1
2
feb
-12
Asia (Minas)US (WTI)Europe (Brent)
Persian Gulf (Dubai)
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
j f m a m j j a s o n d
4 year range, top
4 year range, bottom
2012
4 year average
European gasoline stocksEuropean gasoline stocksEuropean gasoline stocksEuropean gasoline stocks(kt, monthly data)
European jet fuEuropean jet fuEuropean jet fuEuropean jet fuel stocksel stocksel stocksel stocks(kt, monthly data)
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
j f m a m j j a s o n d
4 year range, top
4 year range, bottom
2012
4 year average
100
150
200
250
300350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
j f m a m j j a s o n d
4 year range, top
4 year range, bottom
20124 year average
European gasoil stocksEuropean gasoil stocksEuropean gasoil stocksEuropean gasoil stocks(kt, monthly data)
European fuel oil stocksEuropean fuel oil stocksEuropean fuel oil stocksEuropean fuel oil stocks(kt, monthly data)
1000110012001300140015001600170018001900200021002200230024002500260027002800290030003100
j f m a m j j a s o n d
4 year range, top
4 year range, bottom
2012
4 year average
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1000
1050
j f m a m j j a s o n d
4 year range, top
4 year range, bottom
2012
4 year average
Chart Sources: Bloomberg, PJK International, SEB Commodity Research
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Oil productsUS implied crude oil demandUS implied crude oil demandUS implied crude oil demandUS implied crude oil demand(DOE, mb/d, weekly data)
US impliedUS impliedUS impliedUS implied gasolinegasolinegasolinegasoline demanddemanddemanddemand(DOE, mb/d, weekly data)
13,5
13,8
14,0
14,3
14,5
14,8
15,0
15,3
15,5
j f m a m j j a s o n d
5y avg.
2011
2012
8,5
8,7
8,9
9,1
9,3
9,5
9,7
j f m a m j j a s o n d
5y avg.
2011
2012
US impliedUS impliedUS impliedUS implied distillatedistillatedistillatedistillate demanddemanddemanddemand(DOE, mb/d, weekly data)
Gasoline arbitrageGasoline arbitrageGasoline arbitrageGasoline arbitrage Rotterdam to New YorkRotterdam to New YorkRotterdam to New YorkRotterdam to New York($/t, daily closing)
4,0
4,2
4,4
4,6
4,8
5,0
5,2
5,4
5,6
j f m a m j j a s o n d
5y avg.
2011
2012
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
jan-1
1
feb
-11
mar-
11
apr-
11
ma
j-11
jun-1
1
jul-11
aug-1
1
sep-1
1
okt-11
nov-1
1
dec-1
1
jan-1
2
Middle distillateMiddle distillateMiddle distillateMiddle distillate arbitragearbitragearbitragearbitrage Rotterdam to New YorkRotterdam to New YorkRotterdam to New YorkRotterdam to New York($/t, daily closing)
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
jan-1
1
feb
-11
mar-
11
apr-
11
ma
j-11
jun-1
1
jul-11
aug-1
1
sep-1
1
okt-11
nov-1
1
dec-1
1
jan-1
2
Heating oil/Gasoil (Rotterdam to New York)
Jet fuel/Kerosene (Rotterdam to NewYork)
Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB C ommodity Research
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Related energy marketsUS natural gas priceUS natural gas priceUS natural gas priceUS natural gas price(NYMEX, $/MMBtu, front month, weekly closing)
UKUKUKUK natural gas pricenatural gas pricenatural gas pricenatural gas price(ICE, front month, weekly closing)
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90$/MMBtu (left axis)
GBp/therm (right axis)
Nordic power priceNordic power priceNordic power priceNordic power price(Nord Pool, /MWh, front quarter, weekly closing)
Continental power priceContinental power priceContinental power priceContinental power price(EEX, /MWh, front quarter, weekly closing)
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
EUA priceEUA priceEUA priceEUA price(ECX ICE, /t, Dec. 11, weekly closing)
CoalCoalCoalCoal pricepricepriceprice(CIF ARA steam coal, API#2, daily closing)
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
jan-1
0
feb
-10
mar-
10
apr-
10
ma
j-10
jun-1
0
jul-10
aug-1
0
sep-1
0
okt-10
nov-1
0
dec-1
0
jan-1
1
feb
-11
mar-
11
apr-
11
ma
j-11
jun-1
1
jul-11
aug-1
1
sep-1
1
okt-11
nov-1
1
dec-1
1
jan-1
2
Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB C ommodity Research
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Market indicatorsMSCI WorldMSCI WorldMSCI WorldMSCI World equity market indexequity market indexequity market indexequity market index(weekly closing)
UBS Bloomberg CMCIUBS Bloomberg CMCIUBS Bloomberg CMCIUBS Bloomberg CMCI commodity market indexcommodity market indexcommodity market indexcommodity market index(price index, weekly closing)
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
JPM global manufacturing PMIJPM global manufacturing PMIJPM global manufacturing PMIJPM global manufacturing PMI(monthly, PMIs >50 expansive)
Regional PMI:sRegional PMI:sRegional PMI:sRegional PMI:s(monthly data)
32
34
36
3840
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
mar-
06
jun-0
6
sep-0
6
dec-0
6
mar-
07
jun-0
7
sep-0
7
dec-0
7
mar-
08
jun-0
8
sep-0
8
dec-0
8
mar-
09
jun-0
9
sep-0
9
dec-0
9
mar-
10
jun-1
0
sep-1
0
dec-1
0
mar-
11
jun-1
1
sep-1
1
dec-1
1
US
Eurozone
China
Reference
Regional industrial productionRegional industrial productionRegional industrial productionRegional industrial production growthgrowthgrowthgrowth(%, y/y, monthly data)
OECD composite leading indicatorsOECD composite leading indicatorsOECD composite leading indicatorsOECD composite leading indicators(monthly, 100 corresponds to long term trend growth in industrial production)
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
mar-
06
jun-0
6
sep-0
6
dec-0
6
mar-
07
jun-0
7
sep-0
7
dec-0
7
mar-
08
jun-0
8
sep-0
8
dec-0
8
mar-
09
jun-0
9
sep-0
9
dec-0
9
mar-
10
jun-1
0
sep-1
0
dec-1
0
mar-
11
jun-1
1
sep-1
1
dec-1
1
US
Eurozone
China
8889
9091
92
93
94
9596
9798
99
100101
102103
104105
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
China
Eurozone
OECD
USA
Reference
Chart Sources: Bloomberg, OECD, SEB Commodity Research
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SEB Oil Market Report
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Opinions contained in this report represent the banks present opinion only and are subject to change without notice. All
information contained in this report has been compiled in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. However, norepresentation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made with respect to the completeness or accuracy of its contents andthe information is not to be relied upon as authoritative. Anyone considering taking actions based upon the content of thisdocument is urged to base his or her investment decisions upon such investigations as he or she deems necessary. Thisdocument is being provided as information only, and no specific actions are being solicited as a result of it; to the extentpermitted by law, no liability whatsoever is accepted for any direct or consequential loss arising from use of this documentor its contents.
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SEB Commodity Research
Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief Commodity [email protected]
+47 9248 9230
Filip Petersson, Commodity [email protected]
+46 8 506 230 47
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